{
"slug": "model-watch-quarterly-2026-q3",
"series": "quarterly",
"series_label": "QUARTERLY · MODEL WATCH",
"issue": 1,
"title": "Quarterly Model Watch #1",
"language": "en",
"window_start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00",
"window_end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00",
"window_text": "Jul 15-Sep 30, 2026 UTC",
"cutoff": "2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00",
"generated_at": "2026-10-07T15:39:15+00:00",
"methodology": "v1.1 (2026-08-10)",
"methodology_hash": "e66c7e8c864a2233",
"source": "quarterly_metrics_2026-q3.json",
"hit_rule": "direction: exit tp1/tp2 -> hit, sl -> miss, expiry -> sign of gross pnl",
"bibtex_key": "mm_modelwatch_quarterly_2026q3",
"research_question": "who led the quarter, which tickers were readable, who saw the turn first, and does a model agreeing with itself across timeframes/horizons make its call stronger?",
"base_field_hit": {
"n": 59606,
"hit_rate": 0.456
},
"market_state": {
"panel": "market_state_6p2",
"month": {
"start": "2026-07-15",
"end": "2026-10-01",
"days": 78
},
"prev_month_partial": {
"start": null,
"end": null,
"days": null,
"partial": false,
"applicable": false,
"reason": "no previous quarter: there are no candles before 2026-07-15 (the platform start)"
},
"current": {
"btc_net_pct": 28.56,
"realized_vol_ann_pct": 38.89,
"volume_top5_usd_bn": 173.9436,
"volume_top5_mom_pct": null,
"avg_pairwise_corr": 0.77
},
"previous_partial_month": {
"btc_net_pct": null,
"realized_vol_ann_pct": null,
"volume_top5_usd_bn": null,
"avg_pairwise_corr": null
},
"snapshot_line": "BTC net +28.56% (prior n/a) - ann vol 38.9% (was n/a) - TOP5 volume $173.94B, n/a q/q - pairwise corr 0.77 (was n/a)",
"exchange": "binance",
"audit_filter_applied": true,
"source": "single-exchange (binance) daily candle recompute, market_state_2026-q3.json; block quarter (Jul 15-Sep 30); no prior-quarter block (block_windows.prev_quarter.applicable = false)",
"audit_note": "Market-state row is computed on a single-exchange (binance) daily candle series, as in the weekly series after the audit that found the raw table mixes two exchanges. The quarter block covers 78 days (Jul 15-Sep 30) of the 92-day calendar quarter, and there is no prior-quarter block, so the TOP5 volume figure is a 78-day sum with no quarter-over-quarter change.",
"weeks": {
"M1": {
"btc_net_pct": -3.31,
"realized_vol_ann_pct": 27.33,
"regime": "calm"
},
"M2": {
"btc_net_pct": 24.95,
"realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.53,
"regime": "volatile"
},
"M3": {
"btc_net_pct": 6.42,
"realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.17,
"regime": "volatile"
}
},
"volatility_rule": "volatile if realized_vol_ann_pct >= median(M1..M3) else calm (the median of three values is the middle one)",
"median_realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.17,
"delta_month_vs_prev_partial": {
"applicable": false,
"note": "not applicable: no previous quarter: there are no candles before 2026-07-15 (the platform start)"
},
"controls": {
"M3_matches_published_month": {
"pins_source": "market_state_2026-09.json -> 'month' (the published Monthly #2 block, Sep 1-30)",
"block": "M3",
"published": {
"btc_net_pct": 6.42,
"realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.17,
"volume_top5_usd_bn": 80.0142,
"avg_pairwise_corr": 0.78
},
"got": {
"btc_net_pct": 6.42,
"realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.17,
"volume_top5_usd_bn": 80.0142,
"avg_pairwise_corr": 0.78
},
"match": {
"btc_net_pct": true,
"realized_vol_ann_pct": true,
"volume_top5_usd_bn": true,
"avg_pairwise_corr": true
},
"tolerance": {
"btc_net_pct": 0.05,
"realized_vol_ann_pct": 0.5,
"volume_top5_usd_bn": 0.05,
"avg_pairwise_corr": 0.02
},
"all_match": true
},
"M2_matches_published_prev_month": {
"pins_source": "market_state_2026-09.json -> 'prev_month' (Monthly #2, Aug 1-31); the same four values are market_state_2026-08.json -> 'month' (Monthly #1)",
"block": "M2",
"published": {
"btc_net_pct": 24.95,
"realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.53,
"volume_top5_usd_bn": 65.9696,
"avg_pairwise_corr": 0.79
},
"got": {
"btc_net_pct": 24.95,
"realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.53,
"volume_top5_usd_bn": 65.9696,
"avg_pairwise_corr": 0.79
},
"match": {
"btc_net_pct": true,
"realized_vol_ann_pct": true,
"volume_top5_usd_bn": true,
"avg_pairwise_corr": true
},
"tolerance": {
"btc_net_pct": 0.05,
"realized_vol_ann_pct": 0.5,
"volume_top5_usd_bn": 0.05,
"avg_pairwise_corr": 0.02
},
"all_match": true
},
"M1_matches_published_prev_month_partial": {
"pins_source": "market_state_2026-08.json -> 'prev_month_partial' (Monthly #1, Jul 15-31)",
"block": "M1",
"published": {
"btc_net_pct": -3.31,
"realized_vol_ann_pct": 27.33,
"volume_top5_usd_bn": 27.9598,
"avg_pairwise_corr": 0.79
},
"got": {
"btc_net_pct": -3.31,
"realized_vol_ann_pct": 27.33,
"volume_top5_usd_bn": 27.9598,
"avg_pairwise_corr": 0.79
},
"match": {
"btc_net_pct": true,
"realized_vol_ann_pct": true,
"volume_top5_usd_bn": true,
"avg_pairwise_corr": true
},
"tolerance": {
"btc_net_pct": 0.05,
"realized_vol_ann_pct": 0.5,
"volume_top5_usd_bn": 0.05,
"avg_pairwise_corr": 0.02
},
"all_match": true
},
"note": "M3, M2 and M1 of this run are exactly the blocks the Monthly #2 and Monthly #1 market panels computed (same windows, same audit filter), so all three must reproduce. Non-fatal: a MISMATCH means the exchange filter or the symbol set moved -- send the log, do not publish the row."
},
"regime_days": {
"2026-07-01": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-02": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-03": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-04": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-05": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-06": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-07": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-08": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-09": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-10": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-11": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-12": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-13": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-14": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-15": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-16": {
"move_pct": -1.18,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-17": {
"move_pct": 0.25,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-18": {
"move_pct": 1.26,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-19": {
"move_pct": 0.18,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-20": {
"move_pct": 0.85,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-21": {
"move_pct": 1.81,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-07-22": {
"move_pct": -0.67,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-23": {
"move_pct": -1.89,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-07-24": {
"move_pct": -1.24,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-25": {
"move_pct": 0.53,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-26": {
"move_pct": 1.14,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-27": {
"move_pct": -2.37,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-07-28": {
"move_pct": 0.61,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-29": {
"move_pct": -0.36,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-30": {
"move_pct": 1.52,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-07-31": {
"move_pct": -2.82,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-01": {
"move_pct": -0.13,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-02": {
"move_pct": 0.81,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-03": {
"move_pct": 0.09,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-04": {
"move_pct": 0.93,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-05": {
"move_pct": 0.98,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-06": {
"move_pct": -0.57,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-07": {
"move_pct": 0.88,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-08": {
"move_pct": 0.16,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-09": {
"move_pct": 0.09,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-10": {
"move_pct": -1.63,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-11": {
"move_pct": -0.56,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-12": {
"move_pct": -0.02,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-13": {
"move_pct": -0.25,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-14": {
"move_pct": -0.67,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-15": {
"move_pct": 0.07,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-16": {
"move_pct": -0.35,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-17": {
"move_pct": 2.55,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-18": {
"move_pct": 0.21,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-19": {
"move_pct": 7.82,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-20": {
"move_pct": 5.07,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-21": {
"move_pct": 7.26,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-22": {
"move_pct": -1.67,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-23": {
"move_pct": 0.69,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-24": {
"move_pct": 1.61,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-25": {
"move_pct": -0.58,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-26": {
"move_pct": 0.63,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-27": {
"move_pct": 1.53,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-28": {
"move_pct": -2.91,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-29": {
"move_pct": 0.48,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-30": {
"move_pct": -0.7,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-31": {
"move_pct": 1.19,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-01": {
"move_pct": -1.5,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-09-02": {
"move_pct": -0.06,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-03": {
"move_pct": 4.98,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-09-04": {
"move_pct": -1.97,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-09-05": {
"move_pct": 0.24,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-06": {
"move_pct": 0.58,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-07": {
"move_pct": -1.52,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-09-08": {
"move_pct": -0.72,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-09": {
"move_pct": -0.25,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-10": {
"move_pct": -2.14,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-09-11": {
"move_pct": 0.85,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-12": {
"move_pct": 0.0,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-13": {
"move_pct": -0.57,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-14": {
"move_pct": 1.79,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-09-15": {
"move_pct": -3.35,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-09-16": {
"move_pct": 0.86,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-17": {
"move_pct": 0.21,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-18": {
"move_pct": 5.82,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-09-19": {
"move_pct": 0.46,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-20": {
"move_pct": 0.13,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-21": {
"move_pct": 6.39,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-09-22": {
"move_pct": -0.4,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-23": {
"move_pct": -2.04,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-09-24": {
"move_pct": 0.02,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-25": {
"move_pct": -0.46,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-26": {
"move_pct": 0.36,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-27": {
"move_pct": 0.2,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-28": {
"move_pct": -1.19,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-29": {
"move_pct": 0.22,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-30": {
"move_pct": -0.22,
"regime": "flat"
}
},
"alive_slice_context": {
"abs_move_1d_pct": {
"A": null,
"B": 1.806
},
"btc_realized_vol_ann_pct_hourly": {
"A": null,
"B": 35.11
}
}
},
"key_finding": {
"label": "KEY FINDING · OBSERVATION (one quarterly window)",
"text": "Across the three months the field hit 45.6% (Jul 15-31 45.0%, Aug 1-31 46.3%, Sep 1-30 45.5%), 3 distinct model lines led the three months, and no quarterly title was awarded.",
"evidence_level": "observation"
},
"tables": {
"leaderboard": {
"rows": [
{
"model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"n": 9130,
"hit_rate": 0.4716,
"wilson_95": [
0.4614,
0.4819
],
"coverage": 0.5143,
"model_label": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"n": 8261,
"hit_rate": 0.4585,
"wilson_95": [
0.4478,
0.4693
],
"coverage": 0.4626,
"model_label": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"n": 8447,
"hit_rate": 0.4554,
"wilson_95": [
0.4448,
0.4661
],
"coverage": 0.4727,
"model_label": "claude-fable-5",
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "qwen-3.8-max",
"n": 9537,
"hit_rate": 0.4535,
"wilson_95": [
0.4435,
0.4635
],
"coverage": 0.5367,
"model_label": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)",
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"n": 7799,
"hit_rate": 0.453,
"wilson_95": [
0.442,
0.4641
],
"coverage": 0.4369,
"model_label": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "grok-4.6",
"n": 7244,
"hit_rate": 0.45,
"wilson_95": [
0.4386,
0.4615
],
"coverage": 0.4587,
"model_label": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"n": 9188,
"hit_rate": 0.4486,
"wilson_95": [
0.4385,
0.4588
],
"coverage": 0.514,
"model_label": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"insufficient": false
}
],
"title_awarded": false,
"title_rule": ">=5pp gap AND non-overlapping 95% CI, N>=10",
"top2_gap_pp": 1.3,
"movement_vs_prior_window": [
{
"model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"hit_rate_prior_window": null,
"n_prior_window": null,
"hit_rate_quarterly1": 0.4716,
"delta_pp": null,
"rank_quarterly1": 1
},
{
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"hit_rate_prior_window": null,
"n_prior_window": null,
"hit_rate_quarterly1": 0.4585,
"delta_pp": null,
"rank_quarterly1": 2
},
{
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"hit_rate_prior_window": null,
"n_prior_window": null,
"hit_rate_quarterly1": 0.4554,
"delta_pp": null,
"rank_quarterly1": 3
},
{
"model": "qwen-3.8-max",
"hit_rate_prior_window": null,
"n_prior_window": null,
"hit_rate_quarterly1": 0.4535,
"delta_pp": null,
"rank_quarterly1": 4
},
{
"model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"hit_rate_prior_window": null,
"n_prior_window": null,
"hit_rate_quarterly1": 0.453,
"delta_pp": null,
"rank_quarterly1": 5
},
{
"model": "grok-4.6",
"hit_rate_prior_window": null,
"n_prior_window": null,
"hit_rate_quarterly1": 0.45,
"delta_pp": null,
"rank_quarterly1": 6
},
{
"model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"hit_rate_prior_window": null,
"n_prior_window": null,
"hit_rate_quarterly1": 0.4486,
"delta_pp": null,
"rank_quarterly1": 7
}
],
"prior_window_note": "no prior quarter: there is nothing before the platform start (forecasts since 2026-07-11; candles since 2026-07-15)",
"note": "No quarterly title is awarded this issue. Title rule: **>=5pp gap AND non-overlapping 95% CI, N>=10** per side. gemini-3.1-pro's lead over claude-opus-5 (spliced) is 1.3pp and their CIs overlap, so neither condition is met."
},
"ticker": {
"rows": [
{
"symbol": "BNB",
"n": 10571,
"hit_rate": 0.4629,
"wilson_95": [
0.4534,
0.4724
],
"prior_hit_rate": null,
"prior_n": null
},
{
"symbol": "XRP",
"n": 11196,
"hit_rate": 0.4626,
"wilson_95": [
0.4534,
0.4718
],
"prior_hit_rate": null,
"prior_n": null
},
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"n": 12224,
"hit_rate": 0.4553,
"wilson_95": [
0.4465,
0.4642
],
"prior_hit_rate": null,
"prior_n": null
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"n": 12232,
"hit_rate": 0.4553,
"wilson_95": [
0.4465,
0.4641
],
"prior_hit_rate": null,
"prior_n": null
},
{
"symbol": "SOL",
"n": 11791,
"hit_rate": 0.449,
"wilson_95": [
0.44,
0.458
],
"prior_hit_rate": null,
"prior_n": null
}
],
"best": "BNB",
"hardest": "SOL",
"all_above_51pct": false,
"prior_note": "no prior quarter: there is nothing before the platform start (forecasts since 2026-07-11; candles since 2026-07-15)"
},
"pairs_top": [
{
"model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"symbol": "XRP",
"n": 1746,
"hit_rate": 0.4805
},
{
"model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"symbol": "BNB",
"n": 1630,
"hit_rate": 0.4779
},
{
"model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"symbol": "BTC",
"n": 1887,
"hit_rate": 0.4727
},
{
"model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"symbol": "SOL",
"n": 1817,
"hit_rate": 0.4684
},
{
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"symbol": "ETH",
"n": 1727,
"hit_rate": 0.4679
},
{
"model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"symbol": "BNB",
"n": 1412,
"hit_rate": 0.466
}
],
"pairs_worst": [
{
"model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"symbol": "ETH",
"n": 1887,
"hit_rate": 0.4441
},
{
"model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"symbol": "ETH",
"n": 1659,
"hit_rate": 0.4424
},
{
"model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"symbol": "SOL",
"n": 1778,
"hit_rate": 0.4381
},
{
"model": "grok-4.6",
"symbol": "SOL",
"n": 1473,
"hit_rate": 0.4372
},
{
"model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"symbol": "SOL",
"n": 1509,
"hit_rate": 0.4367
}
],
"reversal_events": {
"definition": "4h grid, trend=sign of prior 24h, counter-move >=2.0% (BTC/ETH) sustained 8h; caller: directional hit, FH 4h/1d, slot in [T-12h, T+FH]",
"events": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"t": "2026-07-20T08:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "long",
"move_8h_pct": 2.32,
"n_callers": 23,
"first_caller": {
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"slot": "2026-07-19T20:01:00+00:00",
"fh": "4h",
"tf": "4h",
"confidence": 58
},
"caller_models": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"qwen-3.8-max"
]
},
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"t": "2026-07-27T20:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "short",
"move_8h_pct": -2.48,
"n_callers": 3,
"first_caller": {
"model": "grok-4.6",
"slot": "2026-07-27T08:01:00+00:00",
"fh": "4h",
"tf": "1h",
"confidence": 57
},
"caller_models": [
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
]
},
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"t": "2026-08-03T08:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "long",
"move_8h_pct": 2.1,
"n_callers": 9,
"first_caller": {
"model": "qwen-3.8-max",
"slot": "2026-08-02T20:01:00+00:00",
"fh": "4h",
"tf": "1h",
"confidence": 68
},
"caller_models": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
]
},
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"t": "2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "short",
"move_8h_pct": -2.49,
"n_callers": 8,
"first_caller": {
"model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"slot": "2026-08-28T04:01:00+00:00",
"fh": "4h",
"tf": "1h",
"confidence": 62
},
"caller_models": [
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
]
},
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"t": "2026-09-23T08:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "short",
"move_8h_pct": -2.9,
"n_callers": 1,
"first_caller": {
"model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"slot": "2026-09-24T00:01:00+00:00",
"fh": "1d",
"tf": "4h",
"confidence": 65
},
"caller_models": [
"gemini-3.1-pro"
]
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-07-20T08:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "long",
"move_8h_pct": 2.38,
"n_callers": 32,
"first_caller": {
"model": "qwen-3.8-max",
"slot": "2026-07-19T20:01:00+00:00",
"fh": "4h",
"tf": "1h",
"confidence": 55
},
"caller_models": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"qwen-3.8-max"
]
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-07-27T16:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "short",
"move_8h_pct": -2.27,
"n_callers": 0,
"first_caller": null,
"caller_models": []
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-07-28T12:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "long",
"move_8h_pct": 2.23,
"n_callers": 0,
"first_caller": null,
"caller_models": []
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-08-01T20:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "long",
"move_8h_pct": 2.27,
"n_callers": 0,
"first_caller": null,
"caller_models": []
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-08-10T08:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "short",
"move_8h_pct": -2.65,
"n_callers": 0,
"first_caller": null,
"caller_models": []
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-08-22T00:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "short",
"move_8h_pct": -3.46,
"n_callers": 1,
"first_caller": {
"model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"slot": "2026-08-22T00:01:00+00:00",
"fh": "4h",
"tf": "1h",
"confidence": 60
},
"caller_models": [
"gemini-3.1-pro"
]
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-08-23T08:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "long",
"move_8h_pct": 2.14,
"n_callers": 17,
"first_caller": {
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"slot": "2026-08-23T00:01:00+00:00",
"fh": "1d",
"tf": "1d",
"confidence": 62
},
"caller_models": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
]
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-08-26T16:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "long",
"move_8h_pct": 2.31,
"n_callers": 13,
"first_caller": {
"model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"slot": "2026-08-27T00:01:00+00:00",
"fh": "1d",
"tf": "4h",
"confidence": 69
},
"caller_models": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
]
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "short",
"move_8h_pct": -2.8,
"n_callers": 0,
"first_caller": null,
"caller_models": []
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-08-30T16:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "short",
"move_8h_pct": -2.52,
"n_callers": 1,
"first_caller": {
"model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"slot": "2026-08-30T04:01:00+00:00",
"fh": "4h",
"tf": "4h",
"confidence": 56
},
"caller_models": [
"deepseek-v4-pro"
]
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-09-03T08:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "long",
"move_8h_pct": 4.61,
"n_callers": 0,
"first_caller": null,
"caller_models": []
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-09-04T08:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "short",
"move_8h_pct": -2.13,
"n_callers": 0,
"first_caller": null,
"caller_models": []
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-09-11T08:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "long",
"move_8h_pct": 4.19,
"n_callers": 11,
"first_caller": {
"model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"slot": "2026-09-12T00:01:00+00:00",
"fh": "1d",
"tf": "1d",
"confidence": 70
},
"caller_models": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
]
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-09-11T16:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "short",
"move_8h_pct": -2.11,
"n_callers": 0,
"first_caller": null,
"caller_models": []
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "long",
"move_8h_pct": 2.22,
"n_callers": 17,
"first_caller": {
"model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"slot": "2026-09-20T00:01:00+00:00",
"fh": "1d",
"tf": "1d",
"confidence": 75
},
"caller_models": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
]
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-09-23T08:00:00+00:00",
"new_side": "short",
"move_8h_pct": -3.73,
"n_callers": 6,
"first_caller": {
"model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"slot": "2026-09-23T08:01:00+00:00",
"fh": "4h",
"tf": "1h",
"confidence": 67
},
"caller_models": [
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
]
}
],
"scope_v1": "BTC/ETH only",
"status": "ok",
"first_call_timing": {
"rows": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"t": "2026-07-20T08:00:00+00:00",
"first_call_slot": "2026-07-19T20:01:00+00:00",
"lag_minutes": -719,
"relation": "before_turn"
},
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"t": "2026-07-27T20:00:00+00:00",
"first_call_slot": "2026-07-27T08:01:00+00:00",
"lag_minutes": -719,
"relation": "before_turn"
},
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"t": "2026-08-03T08:00:00+00:00",
"first_call_slot": "2026-08-02T20:01:00+00:00",
"lag_minutes": -719,
"relation": "before_turn"
},
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"t": "2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00",
"first_call_slot": "2026-08-28T04:01:00+00:00",
"lag_minutes": -479,
"relation": "before_turn"
},
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"t": "2026-09-23T08:00:00+00:00",
"first_call_slot": "2026-09-24T00:01:00+00:00",
"lag_minutes": 961,
"relation": "after_turn"
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-07-20T08:00:00+00:00",
"first_call_slot": "2026-07-19T20:01:00+00:00",
"lag_minutes": -719,
"relation": "before_turn"
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-08-22T00:00:00+00:00",
"first_call_slot": "2026-08-22T00:01:00+00:00",
"lag_minutes": 1,
"relation": "after_turn"
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-08-23T08:00:00+00:00",
"first_call_slot": "2026-08-23T00:01:00+00:00",
"lag_minutes": -479,
"relation": "before_turn"
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-08-26T16:00:00+00:00",
"first_call_slot": "2026-08-27T00:01:00+00:00",
"lag_minutes": 481,
"relation": "after_turn"
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-08-30T16:00:00+00:00",
"first_call_slot": "2026-08-30T04:01:00+00:00",
"lag_minutes": -719,
"relation": "before_turn"
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-09-11T08:00:00+00:00",
"first_call_slot": "2026-09-12T00:01:00+00:00",
"lag_minutes": 961,
"relation": "after_turn"
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00",
"first_call_slot": "2026-09-20T00:01:00+00:00",
"lag_minutes": -719,
"relation": "before_turn"
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"t": "2026-09-23T08:00:00+00:00",
"first_call_slot": "2026-09-23T08:01:00+00:00",
"lag_minutes": 1,
"relation": "after_turn"
}
],
"note": "slot times of the first counted call against the detector's turn time; the caller window is [T-12h, T+FH], so a counted call can follow the turn"
}
},
"cross_tf": {
"fh_4h_tf_4h_vs_1h": {
"agree": {
"n": 5937,
"hit_rate": 0.4426,
"wilson_95": [
0.4301,
0.4553
],
"by_regime": {
"trend": {
"n": 2303,
"hit_rate": 0.5719
},
"flat": {
"n": 3626,
"hit_rate": 0.3602
}
}
},
"disagree": {
"n": 314,
"hit_rate": 0.4554,
"wilson_95": [
0.4012,
0.5107
],
"by_regime": {
"trend": {
"n": 91,
"hit_rate": 0.4396
},
"flat": {
"n": 223,
"hit_rate": 0.4619
}
}
},
"mixed_pairs": 2527,
"base": {
"n": 8798,
"hit_rate": 0.4469
},
"lift_pp": -0.4
},
"fh_1d_tf_1d_vs_4h": {
"agree": {
"n": 1102,
"hit_rate": 0.3875,
"wilson_95": [
0.3592,
0.4166
],
"by_regime": {
"trend": {
"n": 453,
"hit_rate": 0.4746
},
"flat": {
"n": 649,
"hit_rate": 0.3267
}
}
},
"disagree": {
"n": 75,
"hit_rate": 0.52,
"wilson_95": [
0.4087,
0.6293
],
"by_regime": {
"trend": {
"n": 14,
"hit_rate": 0.4286
},
"flat": {
"n": 61,
"hit_rate": 0.541
}
}
},
"mixed_pairs": 499,
"base": {
"n": 1677,
"hit_rate": 0.4091
},
"lift_pp": -2.2
}
},
"cross_fh": {
"fh_4h_confirmed_by_1h": {
"agree": {
"n": 5079,
"hit_rate": 0.4367,
"wilson_95": [
0.4231,
0.4504
],
"by_regime": {
"trend": {
"n": 2083,
"hit_rate": 0.5569
},
"flat": {
"n": 2993,
"hit_rate": 0.3535
}
}
},
"disagree": {
"n": 321,
"hit_rate": 0.4579,
"wilson_95": [
0.4043,
0.5126
],
"by_regime": {
"trend": {
"n": 116,
"hit_rate": 0.431
},
"flat": {
"n": 205,
"hit_rate": 0.4732
}
}
},
"mixed_pairs": 2767,
"base": {
"n": 8798,
"hit_rate": 0.4469
},
"lift_pp": -1.0
},
"fh_1d_confirmed_by_4h": {
"agree": {
"n": 938,
"hit_rate": 0.3774,
"wilson_95": [
0.3469,
0.4089
],
"by_regime": {
"trend": {
"n": 390,
"hit_rate": 0.4564
},
"flat": {
"n": 548,
"hit_rate": 0.3212
}
}
},
"disagree": {
"n": 84,
"hit_rate": 0.5476,
"wilson_95": [
0.4414,
0.6496
],
"by_regime": {
"trend": {
"n": 24,
"hit_rate": 0.5417
},
"flat": {
"n": 60,
"hit_rate": 0.55
}
}
},
"mixed_pairs": 655,
"base": {
"n": 1677,
"hit_rate": 0.4091
},
"lift_pp": -3.2
}
},
"regime_days": {
"2026-07-01": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-02": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-03": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-04": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-05": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-06": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-07": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-08": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-09": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-10": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-11": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-12": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-13": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-14": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-15": {
"move_pct": null,
"regime": "unknown"
},
"2026-07-16": {
"move_pct": -1.18,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-17": {
"move_pct": 0.25,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-18": {
"move_pct": 1.26,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-19": {
"move_pct": 0.18,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-20": {
"move_pct": 0.85,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-21": {
"move_pct": 1.81,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-07-22": {
"move_pct": -0.67,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-23": {
"move_pct": -1.89,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-07-24": {
"move_pct": -1.24,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-25": {
"move_pct": 0.53,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-26": {
"move_pct": 1.14,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-27": {
"move_pct": -2.37,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-07-28": {
"move_pct": 0.61,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-29": {
"move_pct": -0.36,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-07-30": {
"move_pct": 1.52,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-07-31": {
"move_pct": -2.82,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-01": {
"move_pct": -0.13,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-02": {
"move_pct": 0.81,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-03": {
"move_pct": 0.09,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-04": {
"move_pct": 0.93,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-05": {
"move_pct": 0.98,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-06": {
"move_pct": -0.57,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-07": {
"move_pct": 0.88,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-08": {
"move_pct": 0.16,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-09": {
"move_pct": 0.09,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-10": {
"move_pct": -1.63,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-11": {
"move_pct": -0.56,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-12": {
"move_pct": -0.02,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-13": {
"move_pct": -0.25,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-14": {
"move_pct": -0.67,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-15": {
"move_pct": 0.07,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-16": {
"move_pct": -0.35,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-17": {
"move_pct": 2.55,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-18": {
"move_pct": 0.21,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-19": {
"move_pct": 7.82,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-20": {
"move_pct": 5.07,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-21": {
"move_pct": 7.26,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-22": {
"move_pct": -1.67,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-23": {
"move_pct": 0.69,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-24": {
"move_pct": 1.61,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-08-25": {
"move_pct": -0.58,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-08-26": {
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},
"2026-08-29": {
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"2026-08-30": {
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},
"2026-08-31": {
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},
"2026-09-01": {
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},
"2026-09-02": {
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},
"2026-09-03": {
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"2026-09-11": {
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"2026-09-16": {
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"2026-09-18": {
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"2026-09-21": {
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},
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{
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},
{
"model": "claude-opus-5",
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},
{
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},
{
"model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
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},
{
"model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
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},
{
"model": "grok-4.6",
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},
{
"model": "qwen-3.8-max",
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"short": 0.226,
"sideways": 0.4627,
"ls_ratio": 1.38
}
],
"long_short_ratio_field": {
"value": 1.44,
"method": "mean of the per-model long-share / short-share ratios"
},
"consensus_skew": {
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"n_mature": 44406,
"hit_rate": 0.4506
},
"fail_of_month": {
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"symbol": "XRP",
"side": "long",
"confidence": 85,
"slot": "2026-08-21T16:01:00+00:00",
"fh": "4h",
"tf": "1h",
"exit_reason": "sl",
"pnl_net_usd": -3.1
},
"counters": {
"forecasts_total": 133039,
"ok_in_gate": 122919,
"out_of_gate": 6788,
"out_of_gate_by_fh": {
"1w": 4001,
"1m": 2787
},
"invalid": 3332,
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"mature_directional": 59606,
"mature_sideways": 63164,
"pending_next_issue": 149,
"pending_by_fh": {
"1h": 149
},
"late_closes": 0,
"uptime": [
{
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"slots_seen": 1851,
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},
{
"fh": "4h",
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},
{
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},
{
"fh": "1d",
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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"2026-08-19": {
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},
"2026-08-20": {
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},
"2026-08-21": {
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},
"2026-08-22": {
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},
"2026-08-23": {
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},
"2026-08-24": {
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},
"2026-08-25": {
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"2026-08-26": {
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"2026-08-27": {
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"2026-08-28": {
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},
"2026-08-29": {
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},
"2026-08-30": {
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},
"2026-08-31": {
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},
"2026-09-01": {
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},
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},
"2026-09-03": {
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},
"2026-09-04": {
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"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-09-05": {
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},
"2026-09-06": {
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"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-07": {
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"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-09-08": {
"move_pct": -0.72,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-09": {
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"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-10": {
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},
"2026-09-11": {
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},
"2026-09-12": {
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"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-13": {
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"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-14": {
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},
"2026-09-15": {
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},
"2026-09-16": {
"move_pct": 0.86,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-17": {
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"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-18": {
"move_pct": 5.82,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-09-19": {
"move_pct": 0.46,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-20": {
"move_pct": 0.13,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-21": {
"move_pct": 6.39,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-09-22": {
"move_pct": -0.4,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-23": {
"move_pct": -2.04,
"regime": "trend"
},
"2026-09-24": {
"move_pct": 0.02,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-25": {
"move_pct": -0.46,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-26": {
"move_pct": 0.36,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-27": {
"move_pct": 0.2,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-28": {
"move_pct": -1.19,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-29": {
"move_pct": 0.22,
"regime": "flat"
},
"2026-09-30": {
"move_pct": -0.22,
"regime": "flat"
}
},
"grok_era": {
"ids_in_window": [
"grok-4.5",
"grok-4.6"
],
"n_grok45": 11128,
"n_grok46": 7870,
"n_grok45_rows": 11128,
"n_grok46_rows": 7870,
"first_grok46_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00",
"last_grok45_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
"first_grok45_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"flip_at": "2026-08-24T09:22:00+00:00",
"flip_inside_window": true,
"prev_window": {
"n_grok45_rows": 0,
"n_grok46_rows": 0
},
"merged_model_id": "grok-4.6",
"merged_label": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
"lineage_ids": [
"grok-4.5",
"grok-4.6"
],
"lineage_source": "benchmarks.config.lineage_ids(head) for each of the 7 heads + MODEL_SUCCESSION[claude-opus-5=('claude-opus-4.8',), grok-4.6=('grok-4.5',), qwen-3.8-max=('qwen-3.7-max',)]",
"lineage_warnings": [],
"rows_remapped_a_plus_b": 11128,
"note": "window QUARTER [2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00, 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00): grok-4.5 rows 11128, grok-4.6 rows 7870; flip 2026-08-24T09:22:00+00:00 is inside this window. All per-model aggregates use the lineage splice grok-4.5 -> grok-4.6 (one row, labelled 'grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)'). See lineage_era for the same facts across all 7 heads.",
"cells_with_two_grok_rows": 865
},
"lineage_era": {
"window_key": "QUARTER",
"heads": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
],
"lineage_map": {
"claude-opus-4.8": "claude-opus-5",
"grok-4.5": "grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.7-max": "qwen-3.8-max"
},
"legacy_by_head": {
"claude-fable-5": [],
"claude-opus-5": [
"claude-opus-4.8"
],
"deepseek-v4-pro": [],
"gemini-3.1-pro": [],
"gpt-5.6-sol": [],
"grok-4.6": [
"grok-4.5"
],
"qwen-3.8-max": [
"qwen-3.7-max"
]
},
"lineage_source": "benchmarks.config.lineage_ids(head) for each of the 7 heads + MODEL_SUCCESSION[claude-opus-5=('claude-opus-4.8',), grok-4.6=('grok-4.5',), qwen-3.8-max=('qwen-3.7-max',)]",
"lineage_resolved_heads": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
],
"lineage_warnings": [],
"per_head": {
"claude-fable-5": {
"legacy_ids": [],
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
"by_legacy_id": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
"n_rows_successor": 19009,
"spliced_in_window": false,
"label": "claude-fable-5"
},
"claude-opus-5": {
"legacy_ids": [
"claude-opus-4.8"
],
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
"claude-opus-4.8"
],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"claude-opus-4.8": 6315
},
"n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
"claude-opus-4.8": 0
},
"by_legacy_id": {
"claude-opus-4.8": {
"n_rows_remapped": {
"QUARTER": 6315,
"prev_window": 0
},
"first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
"first_slot_prev_window": null,
"last_slot_prev_window": null
}
},
"first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
"last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
"n_rows_successor": 12695,
"spliced_in_window": true,
"label": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)"
},
"deepseek-v4-pro": {
"legacy_ids": [],
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
"by_legacy_id": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
"n_rows_successor": 19007,
"spliced_in_window": false,
"label": "deepseek-v4-pro"
},
"gemini-3.1-pro": {
"legacy_ids": [],
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
"by_legacy_id": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
"n_rows_successor": 19006,
"spliced_in_window": false,
"label": "gemini-3.1-pro"
},
"gpt-5.6-sol": {
"legacy_ids": [],
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
"by_legacy_id": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
"n_rows_successor": 19010,
"spliced_in_window": false,
"label": "gpt-5.6-sol"
},
"grok-4.6": {
"legacy_ids": [
"grok-4.5"
],
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
"grok-4.5"
],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"grok-4.5": 11128
},
"n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
"grok-4.5": 0
},
"by_legacy_id": {
"grok-4.5": {
"n_rows_remapped": {
"QUARTER": 11128,
"prev_window": 0
},
"first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
"first_slot_prev_window": null,
"last_slot_prev_window": null
}
},
"first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
"first_successor_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00",
"last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
"n_rows_successor": 7870,
"spliced_in_window": true,
"label": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)"
},
"qwen-3.8-max": {
"legacy_ids": [
"qwen-3.7-max"
],
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
"qwen-3.7-max"
],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"qwen-3.7-max": 7479
},
"n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
"qwen-3.7-max": 0
},
"by_legacy_id": {
"qwen-3.7-max": {
"n_rows_remapped": {
"QUARTER": 7479,
"prev_window": 0
},
"first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
"first_slot_prev_window": null,
"last_slot_prev_window": null
}
},
"first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
"first_successor_slot": "2026-08-05T10:01:00+00:00",
"last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
"n_rows_successor": 11520,
"spliced_in_window": true,
"label": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
}
},
"labels": {
"claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
"deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
"qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
},
"rows_remapped_window": 24922,
"rows_remapped_prev_window": 0,
"note": "Only the 7 current models are tracked; earlier versions are folded into their successors' lineage. Every per-model aggregate in this pack sees the merged head id; the raw id survives in model_raw. Labels and era spans are generated from the pulled rows, not hardcoded.",
"cells_with_two_rows_per_head": {
"claude-fable-5": 1257,
"claude-opus-5": 1258,
"deepseek-v4-pro": 1257,
"gemini-3.1-pro": 1230,
"gpt-5.6-sol": 1258,
"grok-4.6": 865,
"qwen-3.8-max": 1253
}
},
"series_density": {
"1d": {
"days_with_slots": 77,
"expected_days": 92,
"full_daily_coverage": false,
"in_fh_gate": true,
"n_slots": 77,
"n_rows": 6930,
"days": [
"2026-07-16",
"2026-07-17",
"2026-07-18",
"2026-07-19",
"2026-07-20",
"2026-07-21",
"2026-07-22",
"2026-07-23",
"2026-07-24",
"2026-07-25",
"2026-07-26",
"2026-07-27",
"2026-07-28",
"2026-07-29",
"2026-07-30",
"2026-07-31",
"2026-08-01",
"2026-08-02",
"2026-08-03",
"2026-08-04",
"2026-08-05",
"2026-08-06",
"2026-08-07",
"2026-08-08",
"2026-08-09",
"2026-08-10",
"2026-08-11",
"2026-08-12",
"2026-08-13",
"2026-08-14",
"2026-08-15",
"2026-08-16",
"2026-08-17",
"2026-08-18",
"2026-08-19",
"2026-08-20",
"2026-08-21",
"2026-08-22",
"2026-08-23",
"2026-08-24",
"2026-08-25",
"2026-08-26",
"2026-08-27",
"2026-08-28",
"2026-08-29",
"2026-08-30",
"2026-08-31",
"2026-09-01",
"2026-09-02",
"2026-09-03",
"2026-09-04",
"2026-09-05",
"2026-09-06",
"2026-09-07",
"2026-09-08",
"2026-09-09",
"2026-09-10",
"2026-09-11",
"2026-09-12",
"2026-09-13",
"2026-09-14",
"2026-09-15",
"2026-09-16",
"2026-09-17",
"2026-09-18",
"2026-09-19",
"2026-09-20",
"2026-09-21",
"2026-09-22",
"2026-09-23",
"2026-09-24",
"2026-09-25",
"2026-09-26",
"2026-09-27",
"2026-09-28",
"2026-09-29",
"2026-09-30"
],
"missing_days": [
"2026-07-01",
"2026-07-02",
"2026-07-03",
"2026-07-04",
"2026-07-05",
"2026-07-06",
"2026-07-07",
"2026-07-08",
"2026-07-09",
"2026-07-10",
"2026-07-11",
"2026-07-12",
"2026-07-13",
"2026-07-14",
"2026-07-15"
]
},
"1h": {
"days_with_slots": 78,
"expected_days": 92,
"full_daily_coverage": false,
"in_fh_gate": true,
"n_slots": 1851,
"n_rows": 78685,
"days": [
"2026-07-15",
"2026-07-16",
"2026-07-17",
"2026-07-18",
"2026-07-19",
"2026-07-20",
"2026-07-21",
"2026-07-22",
"2026-07-23",
"2026-07-24",
"2026-07-25",
"2026-07-26",
"2026-07-27",
"2026-07-28",
"2026-07-29",
"2026-07-30",
"2026-07-31",
"2026-08-01",
"2026-08-02",
"2026-08-03",
"2026-08-04",
"2026-08-05",
"2026-08-06",
"2026-08-07",
"2026-08-08",
"2026-08-09",
"2026-08-10",
"2026-08-11",
"2026-08-12",
"2026-08-13",
"2026-08-14",
"2026-08-15",
"2026-08-16",
"2026-08-17",
"2026-08-18",
"2026-08-19",
"2026-08-20",
"2026-08-21",
"2026-08-22",
"2026-08-23",
"2026-08-24",
"2026-08-25",
"2026-08-26",
"2026-08-27",
"2026-08-28",
"2026-08-29",
"2026-08-30",
"2026-08-31",
"2026-09-01",
"2026-09-02",
"2026-09-03",
"2026-09-04",
"2026-09-05",
"2026-09-06",
"2026-09-07",
"2026-09-08",
"2026-09-09",
"2026-09-10",
"2026-09-11",
"2026-09-12",
"2026-09-13",
"2026-09-14",
"2026-09-15",
"2026-09-16",
"2026-09-17",
"2026-09-18",
"2026-09-19",
"2026-09-20",
"2026-09-21",
"2026-09-22",
"2026-09-23",
"2026-09-24",
"2026-09-25",
"2026-09-26",
"2026-09-27",
"2026-09-28",
"2026-09-29",
"2026-09-30"
],
"missing_days": [
"2026-07-01",
"2026-07-02",
"2026-07-03",
"2026-07-04",
"2026-07-05",
"2026-07-06",
"2026-07-07",
"2026-07-08",
"2026-07-09",
"2026-07-10",
"2026-07-11",
"2026-07-12",
"2026-07-13",
"2026-07-14"
]
},
"1m": {
"days_with_slots": 41,
"expected_days": 92,
"full_daily_coverage": false,
"in_fh_gate": false,
"n_slots": 41,
"n_rows": 2940,
"days": [
"2026-07-20",
"2026-08-01",
"2026-08-23",
"2026-08-24",
"2026-08-25",
"2026-08-26",
"2026-08-27",
"2026-08-28",
"2026-08-29",
"2026-08-30",
"2026-08-31",
"2026-09-01",
"2026-09-02",
"2026-09-03",
"2026-09-04",
"2026-09-05",
"2026-09-06",
"2026-09-07",
"2026-09-08",
"2026-09-09",
"2026-09-10",
"2026-09-11",
"2026-09-12",
"2026-09-13",
"2026-09-14",
"2026-09-15",
"2026-09-16",
"2026-09-17",
"2026-09-18",
"2026-09-19",
"2026-09-20",
"2026-09-21",
"2026-09-22",
"2026-09-23",
"2026-09-24",
"2026-09-25",
"2026-09-26",
"2026-09-27",
"2026-09-28",
"2026-09-29",
"2026-09-30"
],
"missing_days": [
"2026-07-01",
"2026-07-02",
"2026-07-03",
"2026-07-04",
"2026-07-05",
"2026-07-06",
"2026-07-07",
"2026-07-08",
"2026-07-09",
"2026-07-10",
"2026-07-11",
"2026-07-12",
"2026-07-13",
"2026-07-14",
"2026-07-15",
"2026-07-16",
"2026-07-17",
"2026-07-18",
"2026-07-19",
"2026-07-21",
"2026-07-22",
"2026-07-23",
"2026-07-24",
"2026-07-25",
"2026-07-26",
"2026-07-27",
"2026-07-28",
"2026-07-29",
"2026-07-30",
"2026-07-31",
"2026-08-02",
"2026-08-03",
"2026-08-04",
"2026-08-05",
"2026-08-06",
"2026-08-07",
"2026-08-08",
"2026-08-09",
"2026-08-10",
"2026-08-11",
"2026-08-12",
"2026-08-13",
"2026-08-14",
"2026-08-15",
"2026-08-16",
"2026-08-17",
"2026-08-18",
"2026-08-19",
"2026-08-20",
"2026-08-21",
"2026-08-22"
]
},
"1w": {
"days_with_slots": 55,
"expected_days": 92,
"full_daily_coverage": false,
"in_fh_gate": false,
"n_slots": 55,
"n_rows": 4830,
"days": [
"2026-07-16",
"2026-07-17",
"2026-07-18",
"2026-07-19",
"2026-07-20",
"2026-07-21",
"2026-07-22",
"2026-07-23",
"2026-07-24",
"2026-07-25",
"2026-07-26",
"2026-07-27",
"2026-08-03",
"2026-08-10",
"2026-08-17",
"2026-08-22",
"2026-08-23",
"2026-08-24",
"2026-08-25",
"2026-08-26",
"2026-08-27",
"2026-08-28",
"2026-08-29",
"2026-08-30",
"2026-08-31",
"2026-09-01",
"2026-09-02",
"2026-09-03",
"2026-09-04",
"2026-09-05",
"2026-09-06",
"2026-09-07",
"2026-09-08",
"2026-09-09",
"2026-09-10",
"2026-09-11",
"2026-09-12",
"2026-09-13",
"2026-09-14",
"2026-09-15",
"2026-09-16",
"2026-09-17",
"2026-09-18",
"2026-09-19",
"2026-09-20",
"2026-09-21",
"2026-09-22",
"2026-09-23",
"2026-09-24",
"2026-09-25",
"2026-09-26",
"2026-09-27",
"2026-09-28",
"2026-09-29",
"2026-09-30"
],
"missing_days": [
"2026-07-01",
"2026-07-02",
"2026-07-03",
"2026-07-04",
"2026-07-05",
"2026-07-06",
"2026-07-07",
"2026-07-08",
"2026-07-09",
"2026-07-10",
"2026-07-11",
"2026-07-12",
"2026-07-13",
"2026-07-14",
"2026-07-15",
"2026-07-28",
"2026-07-29",
"2026-07-30",
"2026-07-31",
"2026-08-01",
"2026-08-02",
"2026-08-04",
"2026-08-05",
"2026-08-06",
"2026-08-07",
"2026-08-08",
"2026-08-09",
"2026-08-11",
"2026-08-12",
"2026-08-13",
"2026-08-14",
"2026-08-15",
"2026-08-16",
"2026-08-18",
"2026-08-19",
"2026-08-20",
"2026-08-21"
]
},
"4h": {
"days_with_slots": 78,
"expected_days": 92,
"full_daily_coverage": false,
"in_fh_gate": true,
"n_slots": 462,
"n_rows": 39654,
"days": [
"2026-07-15",
"2026-07-16",
"2026-07-17",
"2026-07-18",
"2026-07-19",
"2026-07-20",
"2026-07-21",
"2026-07-22",
"2026-07-23",
"2026-07-24",
"2026-07-25",
"2026-07-26",
"2026-07-27",
"2026-07-28",
"2026-07-29",
"2026-07-30",
"2026-07-31",
"2026-08-01",
"2026-08-02",
"2026-08-03",
"2026-08-04",
"2026-08-05",
"2026-08-06",
"2026-08-07",
"2026-08-08",
"2026-08-09",
"2026-08-10",
"2026-08-11",
"2026-08-12",
"2026-08-13",
"2026-08-14",
"2026-08-15",
"2026-08-16",
"2026-08-17",
"2026-08-18",
"2026-08-19",
"2026-08-20",
"2026-08-21",
"2026-08-22",
"2026-08-23",
"2026-08-24",
"2026-08-25",
"2026-08-26",
"2026-08-27",
"2026-08-28",
"2026-08-29",
"2026-08-30",
"2026-08-31",
"2026-09-01",
"2026-09-02",
"2026-09-03",
"2026-09-04",
"2026-09-05",
"2026-09-06",
"2026-09-07",
"2026-09-08",
"2026-09-09",
"2026-09-10",
"2026-09-11",
"2026-09-12",
"2026-09-13",
"2026-09-14",
"2026-09-15",
"2026-09-16",
"2026-09-17",
"2026-09-18",
"2026-09-19",
"2026-09-20",
"2026-09-21",
"2026-09-22",
"2026-09-23",
"2026-09-24",
"2026-09-25",
"2026-09-26",
"2026-09-27",
"2026-09-28",
"2026-09-29",
"2026-09-30"
],
"missing_days": [
"2026-07-01",
"2026-07-02",
"2026-07-03",
"2026-07-04",
"2026-07-05",
"2026-07-06",
"2026-07-07",
"2026-07-08",
"2026-07-09",
"2026-07-10",
"2026-07-11",
"2026-07-12",
"2026-07-13",
"2026-07-14"
]
}
},
"model_roster": {
"current": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
],
"current_count": 7,
"current_raw_ids_in_window": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-4.8",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.5",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.7-max",
"qwen-3.8-max"
],
"archived_legacy": [
"grok-4.5",
"qwen-3.7-max",
"claude-opus-4.8"
],
"archived_legacy_count": 3,
"archived_legacy_detail": [
{
"model": "grok-4.5",
"n_rows_since": 11128,
"first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00"
},
{
"model": "qwen-3.7-max",
"n_rows_since": 7479,
"first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00"
},
{
"model": "claude-opus-4.8",
"n_rows_since": 6315,
"first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00"
}
],
"archived_excluding_lineage_merged": [],
"tracked_total": 10,
"canon_expected": {
"current": 7,
"archived_legacy": 4,
"tracked_total": 11
},
"matches_canon_11_7_4": false,
"roster_rule_w213": "7 models tracked (current line-up; earlier versions folded into their successors' lineage)",
"canon_expected_w213": {
"current": 7
},
"heads_w213": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
],
"matches_canon_7_current": true,
"heads_missing_in_window": [],
"heads_unexpected_in_window": [],
"roster_since": "2026-07-11T00:00:00+00:00",
"note": "current = merged-lineage model ids emitting inside the window (legacy ids are spliced into their successor); archived legacy = raw ids seen since 2026-07-11 that no longer emit in the window. Models retired before 2026-07-11 are not visible to this query. The canon checks are DESCRIPTIVE: if the data says otherwise, the data wins and is printed."
}
},
"uptime": [
{
"fh": "1h",
"tf": "1h",
"slots_seen": 1851,
"slots_expected": 2208
},
{
"fh": "4h",
"tf": "4h",
"slots_seen": 462,
"slots_expected": 552
},
{
"fh": "4h",
"tf": "1h",
"slots_seen": 462,
"slots_expected": 552
},
{
"fh": "1d",
"tf": "1d",
"slots_seen": 77,
"slots_expected": 92
},
{
"fh": "1d",
"tf": "4h",
"slots_seen": 77,
"slots_expected": 92
}
],
"ok_rate_by_model": {
"grok-4.6": 0.8814,
"claude-opus-5": 0.9926,
"claude-fable-5": 0.9925,
"deepseek-v4-pro": 0.9917,
"qwen-3.8-max": 0.9869,
"gemini-3.1-pro": 0.9865,
"gpt-5.6-sol": 0.993
},
"calibration_bridge": {
"best_calibrated_model": "grok-4.6",
"brier": 0.2716,
"hit_rate_leader": "gemini-3.1-pro"
},
"asset_league": {
"by_symbol": [
{
"n": 10571,
"hit_rate": 0.4629,
"wilson_95": [
0.4534,
0.4724
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "BNB",
"rank": 1
},
{
"n": 11196,
"hit_rate": 0.4626,
"wilson_95": [
0.4534,
0.4718
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "XRP",
"rank": 2
},
{
"n": 12232,
"hit_rate": 0.4553,
"wilson_95": [
0.4465,
0.4641
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "ETH",
"rank": 3
},
{
"n": 12224,
"hit_rate": 0.4553,
"wilson_95": [
0.4465,
0.4642
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "BTC",
"rank": 4
},
{
"n": 11791,
"hit_rate": 0.449,
"wilson_95": [
0.44,
0.458
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "SOL",
"rank": 5
}
],
"by_symbol_fh": {
"BTC": {
"fh_1h": {
"n": 7949,
"hit_rate": 0.4706,
"wilson_95": [
0.4597,
0.4816
],
"insufficient": false
},
"fh_4h": {
"n": 3649,
"hit_rate": 0.436,
"wilson_95": [
0.42,
0.4522
],
"insufficient": false
},
"fh_1d": {
"n": 626,
"hit_rate": 0.3738,
"wilson_95": [
0.3368,
0.4124
],
"insufficient": false
}
},
"ETH": {
"fh_1h": {
"n": 8121,
"hit_rate": 0.4678,
"wilson_95": [
0.457,
0.4787
],
"insufficient": false
},
"fh_4h": {
"n": 3468,
"hit_rate": 0.4389,
"wilson_95": [
0.4224,
0.4554
],
"insufficient": false
},
"fh_1d": {
"n": 643,
"hit_rate": 0.3857,
"wilson_95": [
0.3489,
0.4239
],
"insufficient": false
}
},
"SOL": {
"fh_1h": {
"n": 7460,
"hit_rate": 0.4458,
"wilson_95": [
0.4346,
0.4571
],
"insufficient": false
},
"fh_4h": {
"n": 3635,
"hit_rate": 0.4589,
"wilson_95": [
0.4427,
0.4751
],
"insufficient": false
},
"fh_1d": {
"n": 696,
"hit_rate": 0.431,
"wilson_95": [
0.3947,
0.4681
],
"insufficient": false
}
},
"BNB": {
"fh_1h": {
"n": 6741,
"hit_rate": 0.4821,
"wilson_95": [
0.4702,
0.4941
],
"insufficient": false
},
"fh_4h": {
"n": 3249,
"hit_rate": 0.4377,
"wilson_95": [
0.4207,
0.4548
],
"insufficient": false
},
"fh_1d": {
"n": 581,
"hit_rate": 0.3804,
"wilson_95": [
0.3418,
0.4205
],
"insufficient": false
}
},
"XRP": {
"fh_1h": {
"n": 7209,
"hit_rate": 0.4682,
"wilson_95": [
0.4567,
0.4797
],
"insufficient": false
},
"fh_4h": {
"n": 3379,
"hit_rate": 0.4593,
"wilson_95": [
0.4426,
0.4761
],
"insufficient": false
},
"fh_1d": {
"n": 608,
"hit_rate": 0.4145,
"wilson_95": [
0.376,
0.454
],
"insufficient": false
}
}
},
"by_week_symbol_published": {
"M1": [
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"n": 4564,
"hit_rate": 0.4781,
"wilson_95": [
0.4636,
0.4926
],
"rank": 1
},
{
"symbol": "BNB",
"n": 2720,
"hit_rate": 0.4548,
"wilson_95": [
0.4361,
0.4735
],
"rank": 2
},
{
"symbol": "XRP",
"n": 3053,
"hit_rate": 0.4455,
"wilson_95": [
0.4279,
0.4632
],
"rank": 3
},
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"n": 4169,
"hit_rate": 0.4418,
"wilson_95": [
0.4268,
0.457
],
"rank": 4
},
{
"symbol": "SOL",
"n": 3443,
"hit_rate": 0.4325,
"wilson_95": [
0.416,
0.4491
],
"rank": 5
}
],
"M2": [
{
"symbol": "BNB",
"n": 3857,
"hit_rate": 0.4807,
"wilson_95": [
0.4649,
0.4965
],
"rank": 1
},
{
"symbol": "SOL",
"n": 3928,
"hit_rate": 0.4733,
"wilson_95": [
0.4577,
0.4889
],
"rank": 2
},
{
"symbol": "XRP",
"n": 3835,
"hit_rate": 0.4673,
"wilson_95": [
0.4515,
0.4831
],
"rank": 3
},
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"n": 4068,
"hit_rate": 0.4648,
"wilson_95": [
0.4496,
0.4802
],
"rank": 4
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"n": 3695,
"hit_rate": 0.4287,
"wilson_95": [
0.4128,
0.4447
],
"rank": 5
}
],
"M3": [
{
"symbol": "XRP",
"n": 4308,
"hit_rate": 0.4705,
"wilson_95": [
0.4556,
0.4854
],
"rank": 1
},
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"n": 3987,
"hit_rate": 0.4597,
"wilson_95": [
0.4443,
0.4752
],
"rank": 2
},
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"n": 3973,
"hit_rate": 0.4538,
"wilson_95": [
0.4384,
0.4693
],
"rank": 3
},
{
"symbol": "BNB",
"n": 3994,
"hit_rate": 0.4512,
"wilson_95": [
0.4358,
0.4666
],
"rank": 4
},
{
"symbol": "SOL",
"n": 4420,
"hit_rate": 0.4403,
"wilson_95": [
0.4257,
0.455
],
"rank": 5
}
]
},
"by_week_symbol": {
"M1": [
{
"n": 4564,
"hit_rate": 0.4781,
"wilson_95": [
0.4636,
0.4926
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "ETH",
"rank": 1
},
{
"n": 2720,
"hit_rate": 0.4548,
"wilson_95": [
0.4361,
0.4735
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "BNB",
"rank": 2
},
{
"n": 3053,
"hit_rate": 0.4455,
"wilson_95": [
0.4279,
0.4632
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "XRP",
"rank": 3
},
{
"n": 4169,
"hit_rate": 0.4418,
"wilson_95": [
0.4268,
0.457
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "BTC",
"rank": 4
},
{
"n": 3443,
"hit_rate": 0.4325,
"wilson_95": [
0.416,
0.4491
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "SOL",
"rank": 5
}
],
"M2": [
{
"n": 3857,
"hit_rate": 0.4807,
"wilson_95": [
0.4649,
0.4965
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "BNB",
"rank": 1
},
{
"n": 3928,
"hit_rate": 0.4733,
"wilson_95": [
0.4577,
0.4889
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "SOL",
"rank": 2
},
{
"n": 3835,
"hit_rate": 0.4673,
"wilson_95": [
0.4515,
0.4831
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "XRP",
"rank": 3
},
{
"n": 4068,
"hit_rate": 0.4648,
"wilson_95": [
0.4496,
0.4802
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "BTC",
"rank": 4
},
{
"n": 3695,
"hit_rate": 0.4287,
"wilson_95": [
0.4128,
0.4447
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "ETH",
"rank": 5
}
],
"M3": [
{
"n": 4308,
"hit_rate": 0.4705,
"wilson_95": [
0.4556,
0.4854
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "XRP",
"rank": 1
},
{
"n": 3987,
"hit_rate": 0.4597,
"wilson_95": [
0.4443,
0.4752
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "BTC",
"rank": 2
},
{
"n": 3973,
"hit_rate": 0.4538,
"wilson_95": [
0.4384,
0.4693
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "ETH",
"rank": 3
},
{
"n": 3994,
"hit_rate": 0.4512,
"wilson_95": [
0.4358,
0.4666
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "BNB",
"rank": 4
},
{
"n": 4420,
"hit_rate": 0.4403,
"wilson_95": [
0.4257,
0.455
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "SOL",
"rank": 5
}
]
},
"by_model_symbol": {
"claude-fable-5": {
"BTC": {
"n": 1763,
"hit_rate": 0.4532
},
"ETH": {
"n": 1723,
"hit_rate": 0.4602
},
"SOL": {
"n": 1752,
"hit_rate": 0.4492
},
"BNB": {
"n": 1509,
"hit_rate": 0.4626
},
"XRP": {
"n": 1480,
"hit_rate": 0.4588
}
},
"claude-opus-5": {
"BTC": {
"n": 1761,
"hit_rate": 0.4509
},
"ETH": {
"n": 1727,
"hit_rate": 0.4679
},
"SOL": {
"n": 1588,
"hit_rate": 0.4591
},
"BNB": {
"n": 1402,
"hit_rate": 0.4636
},
"XRP": {
"n": 1488,
"hit_rate": 0.4624
}
},
"deepseek-v4-pro": {
"BTC": {
"n": 1613,
"hit_rate": 0.4588
},
"ETH": {
"n": 1659,
"hit_rate": 0.4424
},
"SOL": {
"n": 1509,
"hit_rate": 0.4367
},
"BNB": {
"n": 1412,
"hit_rate": 0.466
},
"XRP": {
"n": 1469,
"hit_rate": 0.4629
}
},
"gemini-3.1-pro": {
"BTC": {
"n": 1887,
"hit_rate": 0.4727
},
"ETH": {
"n": 1783,
"hit_rate": 0.4644
},
"SOL": {
"n": 1817,
"hit_rate": 0.4684
},
"BNB": {
"n": 1630,
"hit_rate": 0.4779
},
"XRP": {
"n": 1746,
"hit_rate": 0.4805
}
},
"gpt-5.6-sol": {
"BTC": {
"n": 1855,
"hit_rate": 0.4447
},
"ETH": {
"n": 1887,
"hit_rate": 0.4441
},
"SOL": {
"n": 1778,
"hit_rate": 0.4381
},
"BNB": {
"n": 1652,
"hit_rate": 0.4534
},
"XRP": {
"n": 1775,
"hit_rate": 0.4648
}
},
"grok-4.6": {
"BTC": {
"n": 1398,
"hit_rate": 0.4557
},
"ETH": {
"n": 1460,
"hit_rate": 0.4507
},
"SOL": {
"n": 1473,
"hit_rate": 0.4372
},
"BNB": {
"n": 1316,
"hit_rate": 0.4582
},
"XRP": {
"n": 1420,
"hit_rate": 0.4528
}
},
"qwen-3.8-max": {
"BTC": {
"n": 1947,
"hit_rate": 0.4515
},
"ETH": {
"n": 1993,
"hit_rate": 0.4566
},
"SOL": {
"n": 1874,
"hit_rate": 0.4509
},
"BNB": {
"n": 1650,
"hit_rate": 0.4582
},
"XRP": {
"n": 1818,
"hit_rate": 0.4538
}
}
},
"sol_hypothesis": {
"symbol": "SOL",
"quarter_rank": 5,
"quarter_n": 11791,
"quarter_hit_rate": 0.449,
"months_ranked_first": [],
"months_rank": {
"M1": 5,
"M2": 2,
"M3": 5
},
"months_rank_published": {
"M1": 5,
"M2": 2,
"M3": 5
},
"best_fh": "fh_4h",
"best_fh_hit_rate": 0.4589,
"note": "SOL: quarter rank 6 of 10 symbols (n=11791, hit_rate=0.449, wilson_95=[0.44, 0.458]); rank 1 in 0 of 3 months (none); highest hit_rate by horizon fh_4h (n=3635, hit_rate=0.4589). Ranks from the quarter pull split by slot month; published ranks from the monthly packs' ticker_of_week.",
"rank_universe": "ranks among the five current coins (BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP); the pack note ranks every symbol of the quarter"
},
"rank_rule": "rank 1 = highest hit_rate; ties broken by n desc; empty cells rank last",
"source": "quarter_pull_split_by_slot_month (cutoff 2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00)",
"by_week_symbol_published_source": "months.M*.model_watch.ticker_of_week (frozen monthly cutoffs)",
"retired_symbols": {
"symbols": [
"DOGE",
"AVAX",
"PEPE",
"LINK",
"TON"
],
"by_symbol": [
{
"n": 347,
"hit_rate": 0.4755,
"wilson_95": [
0.4235,
0.528
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "DOGE",
"rank": 1
},
{
"n": 414,
"hit_rate": 0.4324,
"wilson_95": [
0.3855,
0.4805
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "AVAX",
"rank": 7
},
{
"n": 394,
"hit_rate": 0.4061,
"wilson_95": [
0.3587,
0.4553
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "PEPE",
"rank": 8
},
{
"n": 436,
"hit_rate": 0.4037,
"wilson_95": [
0.3587,
0.4504
],
"insufficient": false,
"symbol": "LINK",
"rank": 9
},
{
"n": 1,
"hit_rate": 0.0,
"wilson_95": [
0.0,
0.7935
],
"insufficient": true,
"symbol": "TON",
"rank": 10
}
],
"note": "counted in the field totals, not ranked in the asset tables; ranks above are among the five current coins (the pack ranks all symbols)"
},
"unit_note": "quarterly issue: *_week_* keys carry the months M1..M3"
},
"rank_stability": {
"by_week": {
"M1": [
{
"model": "qwen-3.8-max",
"rank": 1,
"n": 3371,
"hit_rate": 0.4568,
"wilson_95": [
0.4401,
0.4737
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "grok-4.6",
"rank": 2,
"n": 2265,
"hit_rate": 0.453,
"wilson_95": [
0.4326,
0.4735
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"rank": 3,
"n": 2813,
"hit_rate": 0.4511,
"wilson_95": [
0.4328,
0.4696
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"rank": 4,
"n": 1869,
"hit_rate": 0.4505,
"wilson_95": [
0.4281,
0.4731
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"rank": 5,
"n": 3448,
"hit_rate": 0.4492,
"wilson_95": [
0.4327,
0.4659
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"rank": 6,
"n": 2690,
"hit_rate": 0.445,
"wilson_95": [
0.4263,
0.4638
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"rank": 7,
"n": 3085,
"hit_rate": 0.4431,
"wilson_95": [
0.4257,
0.4607
],
"insufficient": false
}
],
"M2": [
{
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"rank": 1,
"n": 2281,
"hit_rate": 0.4779,
"wilson_95": [
0.4574,
0.4984
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"rank": 2,
"n": 3033,
"hit_rate": 0.4761,
"wilson_95": [
0.4584,
0.4939
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"rank": 3,
"n": 2812,
"hit_rate": 0.4673,
"wilson_95": [
0.4489,
0.4858
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"rank": 4,
"n": 2970,
"hit_rate": 0.4586,
"wilson_95": [
0.4407,
0.4765
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "qwen-3.8-max",
"rank": 5,
"n": 3001,
"hit_rate": 0.4565,
"wilson_95": [
0.4388,
0.4744
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"rank": 6,
"n": 2578,
"hit_rate": 0.4554,
"wilson_95": [
0.4362,
0.4747
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "grok-4.6",
"rank": 7,
"n": 2708,
"hit_rate": 0.4527,
"wilson_95": [
0.4341,
0.4715
],
"insufficient": false
}
],
"M3": [
{
"model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"rank": 1,
"n": 3284,
"hit_rate": 0.4851,
"wilson_95": [
0.468,
0.5022
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"rank": 2,
"n": 2532,
"hit_rate": 0.4538,
"wilson_95": [
0.4345,
0.4732
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"rank": 3,
"n": 2945,
"hit_rate": 0.4537,
"wilson_95": [
0.4357,
0.4717
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"rank": 4,
"n": 3352,
"hit_rate": 0.4526,
"wilson_95": [
0.4358,
0.4695
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "qwen-3.8-max",
"rank": 5,
"n": 3165,
"hit_rate": 0.4471,
"wilson_95": [
0.4298,
0.4645
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"rank": 6,
"n": 3133,
"hit_rate": 0.4446,
"wilson_95": [
0.4273,
0.4621
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "grok-4.6",
"rank": 7,
"n": 2271,
"hit_rate": 0.4439,
"wilson_95": [
0.4235,
0.4644
],
"insufficient": false
}
]
},
"month_rank": [
{
"model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"rank": 1,
"n": 9130,
"hit_rate": 0.4716,
"wilson_95": [
0.4614,
0.4819
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"rank": 2,
"n": 8261,
"hit_rate": 0.4585,
"wilson_95": [
0.4478,
0.4693
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"rank": 3,
"n": 8447,
"hit_rate": 0.4554,
"wilson_95": [
0.4448,
0.4661
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "qwen-3.8-max",
"rank": 4,
"n": 9537,
"hit_rate": 0.4535,
"wilson_95": [
0.4435,
0.4635
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"rank": 5,
"n": 7799,
"hit_rate": 0.453,
"wilson_95": [
0.442,
0.4641
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "grok-4.6",
"rank": 6,
"n": 7244,
"hit_rate": 0.45,
"wilson_95": [
0.4386,
0.4615
],
"insufficient": false
},
{
"model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"rank": 7,
"n": 9188,
"hit_rate": 0.4486,
"wilson_95": [
0.4385,
0.4588
],
"insufficient": false
}
],
"per_model": {
"claude-fable-5": {
"ranks": [
6,
3,
3
],
"n": [
2690,
2812,
2945
],
"hit_rates": [
0.445,
0.4673,
0.4537
],
"mean_rank": 4.0,
"best": 3,
"worst": 6,
"range": 3,
"quarter_rank": 3,
"quarter_hit_rate": 0.4554
},
"claude-opus-5": {
"ranks": [
5,
1,
2
],
"n": [
3448,
2281,
2532
],
"hit_rates": [
0.4492,
0.4779,
0.4538
],
"mean_rank": 2.67,
"best": 1,
"worst": 5,
"range": 4,
"quarter_rank": 2,
"quarter_hit_rate": 0.4585
},
"deepseek-v4-pro": {
"ranks": [
4,
6,
4
],
"n": [
1869,
2578,
3352
],
"hit_rates": [
0.4505,
0.4554,
0.4526
],
"mean_rank": 4.67,
"best": 4,
"worst": 6,
"range": 2,
"quarter_rank": 5,
"quarter_hit_rate": 0.453
},
"gemini-3.1-pro": {
"ranks": [
3,
2,
1
],
"n": [
2813,
3033,
3284
],
"hit_rates": [
0.4511,
0.4761,
0.4851
],
"mean_rank": 2.0,
"best": 1,
"worst": 3,
"range": 2,
"quarter_rank": 1,
"quarter_hit_rate": 0.4716
},
"gpt-5.6-sol": {
"ranks": [
7,
4,
6
],
"n": [
3085,
2970,
3133
],
"hit_rates": [
0.4431,
0.4586,
0.4446
],
"mean_rank": 5.67,
"best": 4,
"worst": 7,
"range": 3,
"quarter_rank": 7,
"quarter_hit_rate": 0.4486
},
"grok-4.6": {
"ranks": [
2,
7,
7
],
"n": [
2265,
2708,
2271
],
"hit_rates": [
0.453,
0.4527,
0.4439
],
"mean_rank": 5.33,
"best": 2,
"worst": 7,
"range": 5,
"quarter_rank": 6,
"quarter_hit_rate": 0.45
},
"qwen-3.8-max": {
"ranks": [
1,
5,
5
],
"n": [
3371,
3001,
3165
],
"hit_rates": [
0.4568,
0.4565,
0.4471
],
"mean_rank": 3.67,
"best": 1,
"worst": 5,
"range": 4,
"quarter_rank": 4,
"quarter_hit_rate": 0.4535
}
},
"spearman_consecutive": [
{
"pair": "M1-M2",
"rho": -0.4286
},
{
"pair": "M2-M3",
"rho": 0.8214
}
],
"spearman_vs_month": {
"M1": 0.1429,
"M2": 0.75,
"M3": 0.9286
},
"top_model_by_week": {
"M1": "qwen-3.8-max",
"M2": "claude-opus-5",
"M3": "gemini-3.1-pro"
},
"n_distinct_leaders": 3,
"rank_rule": "rank = position in the pack's leaderboard, which w201 sorts by hit_rate desc",
"spearman_note": "rho computed here (no scipy on the box); ties get average ranks",
"source": "monthly packs (M1..M3) model_watch.leaderboard.rows (frozen cutoffs) + QUARTER pack",
"widths_mm_used": [
40,
22,
22,
22,
22,
24,
22
],
"unit_note": "quarterly issue: by_week / top_model_by_week carry the months M1..M3, month_rank / spearman_vs_month the quarter"
},
"regime_weeks": {
"per_week": {
"M1": {
"label_window": "Jul 1-31",
"days_in_month": 31,
"days_with_price": 16,
"mean_abs_1d_move_pct": 1.167,
"max_abs_1d_move_pct": 2.82,
"trend_days": 5,
"flat_days": 11,
"daily_moves_pct": {
"2026-07-16": -1.18,
"2026-07-17": 0.25,
"2026-07-18": 1.26,
"2026-07-19": 0.18,
"2026-07-20": 0.85,
"2026-07-21": 1.81,
"2026-07-22": -0.67,
"2026-07-23": -1.89,
"2026-07-24": -1.24,
"2026-07-25": 0.53,
"2026-07-26": 1.14,
"2026-07-27": -2.37,
"2026-07-28": 0.61,
"2026-07-29": -0.36,
"2026-07-30": 1.52,
"2026-07-31": -2.82
},
"label": "calm"
},
"M2": {
"label_window": "Aug 1-31",
"days_in_month": 31,
"days_with_price": 31,
"mean_abs_1d_move_pct": 1.39,
"max_abs_1d_move_pct": 7.82,
"trend_days": 9,
"flat_days": 22,
"daily_moves_pct": {
"2026-08-01": -0.13,
"2026-08-02": 0.81,
"2026-08-03": 0.09,
"2026-08-04": 0.93,
"2026-08-05": 0.98,
"2026-08-06": -0.57,
"2026-08-07": 0.88,
"2026-08-08": 0.16,
"2026-08-09": 0.09,
"2026-08-10": -1.63,
"2026-08-11": -0.56,
"2026-08-12": -0.02,
"2026-08-13": -0.25,
"2026-08-14": -0.67,
"2026-08-15": 0.07,
"2026-08-16": -0.35,
"2026-08-17": 2.55,
"2026-08-18": 0.21,
"2026-08-19": 7.82,
"2026-08-20": 5.07,
"2026-08-21": 7.26,
"2026-08-22": -1.67,
"2026-08-23": 0.69,
"2026-08-24": 1.61,
"2026-08-25": -0.58,
"2026-08-26": 0.63,
"2026-08-27": 1.53,
"2026-08-28": -2.91,
"2026-08-29": 0.48,
"2026-08-30": -0.7,
"2026-08-31": 1.19
},
"label": "volatile"
},
"M3": {
"label_window": "Sep 1-30",
"days_in_month": 30,
"days_with_price": 30,
"mean_abs_1d_move_pct": 1.317,
"max_abs_1d_move_pct": 6.39,
"trend_days": 10,
"flat_days": 20,
"daily_moves_pct": {
"2026-09-01": -1.5,
"2026-09-02": -0.06,
"2026-09-03": 4.98,
"2026-09-04": -1.97,
"2026-09-05": 0.24,
"2026-09-06": 0.58,
"2026-09-07": -1.52,
"2026-09-08": -0.72,
"2026-09-09": -0.25,
"2026-09-10": -2.14,
"2026-09-11": 0.85,
"2026-09-12": 0.0,
"2026-09-13": -0.57,
"2026-09-14": 1.79,
"2026-09-15": -3.35,
"2026-09-16": 0.86,
"2026-09-17": 0.21,
"2026-09-18": 5.82,
"2026-09-19": 0.46,
"2026-09-20": 0.13,
"2026-09-21": 6.39,
"2026-09-22": -0.4,
"2026-09-23": -2.04,
"2026-09-24": 0.02,
"2026-09-25": -0.46,
"2026-09-26": 0.36,
"2026-09-27": 0.2,
"2026-09-28": -1.19,
"2026-09-29": 0.22,
"2026-09-30": -0.22
},
"label": "volatile"
}
},
"week_labels": {
"M1": "calm",
"M2": "volatile",
"M3": "volatile"
},
"per_model": {
"claude-fable-5": {
"calm": {
"n": 2690,
"hit_rate": 0.445,
"wilson_95": [
0.4263,
0.4638
],
"insufficient": false
},
"volatile": {
"n": 5757,
"hit_rate": 0.4603,
"wilson_95": [
0.4475,
0.4732
],
"insufficient": false
},
"diff_pp": 1.5
},
"claude-opus-5": {
"calm": {
"n": 3448,
"hit_rate": 0.4492,
"wilson_95": [
0.4327,
0.4659
],
"insufficient": false
},
"volatile": {
"n": 4813,
"hit_rate": 0.4652,
"wilson_95": [
0.4511,
0.4793
],
"insufficient": false
},
"diff_pp": 1.6
},
"deepseek-v4-pro": {
"calm": {
"n": 1869,
"hit_rate": 0.4505,
"wilson_95": [
0.4281,
0.4731
],
"insufficient": false
},
"volatile": {
"n": 5930,
"hit_rate": 0.4538,
"wilson_95": [
0.4412,
0.4665
],
"insufficient": false
},
"diff_pp": 0.3
},
"gemini-3.1-pro": {
"calm": {
"n": 2813,
"hit_rate": 0.4511,
"wilson_95": [
0.4328,
0.4696
],
"insufficient": false
},
"volatile": {
"n": 6317,
"hit_rate": 0.4808,
"wilson_95": [
0.4685,
0.4931
],
"insufficient": false
},
"diff_pp": 3.0
},
"gpt-5.6-sol": {
"calm": {
"n": 3085,
"hit_rate": 0.4431,
"wilson_95": [
0.4257,
0.4607
],
"insufficient": false
},
"volatile": {
"n": 6103,
"hit_rate": 0.4514,
"wilson_95": [
0.439,
0.4639
],
"insufficient": false
},
"diff_pp": 0.8
},
"grok-4.6": {
"calm": {
"n": 2265,
"hit_rate": 0.453,
"wilson_95": [
0.4326,
0.4735
],
"insufficient": false
},
"volatile": {
"n": 4979,
"hit_rate": 0.4487,
"wilson_95": [
0.4349,
0.4625
],
"insufficient": false
},
"diff_pp": -0.4
},
"qwen-3.8-max": {
"calm": {
"n": 3371,
"hit_rate": 0.4568,
"wilson_95": [
0.4401,
0.4737
],
"insufficient": false
},
"volatile": {
"n": 6166,
"hit_rate": 0.4517,
"wilson_95": [
0.4393,
0.4641
],
"insufficient": false
},
"diff_pp": -0.5
}
},
"field": {
"calm": {
"n": 19541,
"hit_rate": 0.4498,
"wilson_95": [
0.4429,
0.4568
],
"insufficient": false
},
"volatile": {
"n": 40065,
"hit_rate": 0.459,
"wilson_95": [
0.4542,
0.4639
],
"insufficient": false
},
"diff_pp": 0.9
},
"rule": "label = 'volatile' if mean_abs_1d_move_pct >= median of the three months else 'calm' (the median of three values is the middle one)",
"median_mean_abs_1d_move_pct": 1.317,
"diff_definition": "diff_pp = volatile hit_rate - calm hit_rate, in percentage points",
"trend_day_rule": "w201 regime_days: |BTC 1d move| >= 1.5% -> trend, else flat",
"rows_outside_weeks": 0,
"unit_note": "quarterly issue: per_week / week_labels / rows_outside_weeks carry the months M1..M3"
},
"prior_window_model_watch": {
"applicable": false,
"reason": "no prior quarter: there is nothing before the platform start (forecasts since 2026-07-11; candles since 2026-07-15)"
},
"verdict_block": {
"rule": "Verdict rule: each row states one reading of the quarter; a month agrees when it shows the same reading (same sign, or the same name). Confirmed = 2 or 3 of the 3 months agree with the quarter; Rejected = 0 or 1. M1 holds Jul 15-31 only: the platform's first forecast slot is Jul 15 18:01 UTC. Monthly cells come from the frozen monthly packs (7-line roster, lineage spliced); the quarter is the pooled Jul 15-Sep 30 pull.",
"header": [
"Metric",
"M1 Jul 15-31",
"M2 Aug 1-31",
"M3 Sep 1-30",
"Quarter",
"Verdict"
],
"widths_mm": [
44,
26,
26,
26,
20,
32
],
"weeks_source": "frozen monthly packs (months.M1..M3 of the quarterly pack, 7-line roster, lineage spliced)",
"month_source": "the pooled Jul 15-Sep 30 pull (quarter block)",
"rows": [
{
"metric": "Leader (hit-rate)",
"weeks": {
"M1": {
"value": "qwen-3.8",
"reading": "qwen-3.8-max"
},
"M2": {
"value": "opus-5",
"reading": "claude-opus-5"
},
"M3": {
"value": "gemini-3.1",
"reading": "gemini-3.1-pro"
}
},
"month": {
"value": "gemini-3.1",
"reading": "gemini-3.1-pro"
},
"agree_count": 1,
"verdict": "Rejected (1/3)"
},
{
"metric": "Most readable coin",
"weeks": {
"M1": {
"value": "ETH",
"reading": "ETH"
},
"M2": {
"value": "BNB",
"reading": "BNB"
},
"M3": {
"value": "XRP",
"reading": "XRP"
}
},
"month": {
"value": "BNB",
"reading": "BNB"
},
"agree_count": 1,
"verdict": "Rejected (1/3)"
},
{
"metric": "Field hit below 50%",
"weeks": {
"M1": {
"value": "45.0%",
"reading": "below 50%"
},
"M2": {
"value": "46.3%",
"reading": "below 50%"
},
"M3": {
"value": "45.5%",
"reading": "below 50%"
}
},
"month": {
"value": "45.6%",
"reading": "below 50%"
},
"agree_count": 3,
"verdict": "Confirmed (3/3)"
}
]
}
},
"key_findings": [
"**OBSERVATION -- No quarterly title.** gemini-3.1-pro leads the quarter descriptively at 47.2% [46.1%, 48.2%]; the gap to #2 (claude-opus-5 (spliced), 45.9%) is 1.3pp. There is no prior quarter; the monthly top spot went to qwen-3.8-max (spliced) in Jul 15-31, claude-opus-5 (spliced) in Aug 1-31 and gemini-3.1-pro in Sep 1-30, so 3 distinct model lines held it across the three months.",
"**No ticker cleared 51%.** BNB is the quarter's most readable coin (46.3%, n=10,571) and SOL the hardest at 44.9%; 0 of the 5 assets cleared 51% over the quarter. Pair of the quarter: gemini-3.1-pro x XRP 48.0% (n=1,746); worst: deepseek-v4-pro x SOL 43.7% (n=1,509).",
"**Mean monthly rank ran 2.00 to 5.67 across the three months.** grok-4.6 (spliced) swung across 5 rank positions and deepseek-v4-pro across 2. Consecutive-month Spearman came in at M1-M2 -0.43, M2-M3 0.82.",
"**Calm and volatile months read the same.** Split by the pack's own volatility rule the field hit 45.0% (n=19,541) in the one calm month against 45.9% (n=40,065) in the two volatile months, a difference of +0.9pp. Cross-TF/FH lifts ran -3.2pp to -0.4pp. On trend days, 4h TF-agreement hit 57.2% (n=2,303) against 36.0% (n=3,626) on flat days."
],
"market_check": {
"label": "MARKET CHECK · OBSERVATION (three months of the quarter)",
"text": "OBSERVATION -- mean |1d move| 1.54% / 1.98% / 1.91% by month (1.81% over the quarter), BTC realized vol 33.5% / 36.9% / 34.9% (35.1%; ann., hourly); field directional accuracy 45.0% / 46.3% / 45.5% (45.6%), sim win-rate 31.9% / 35.8% / 38.4% (35.4%), field sim PnL -$3095.02 / -$1054.79 / -$2554.15 (-$6703.95) (Jul 15-31 / Aug 1-31 / Sep 1-30, quarter in parentheses; descriptive, three windows, not a claim).",
"robustness": "Robustness: raw price-sign accuracy 46.8% / 46.0% / 48.4% by month (47.1% over the quarter) against 45.0% / 46.3% / 45.5% (45.6%) under the trade-based hit rule; month to month the two moved in the same direction in 0 of 2 steps.",
"weeks": {
"A": {
"days": "2026-04-01..2026-06-30",
"slots": [
"2026-04-01T00:00:00+00:00",
"2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00"
],
"cutoff": "2026-07-01T16:00:00+00:00",
"partial": false
},
"B": {
"days": "2026-07-01..2026-09-30",
"slots": [
"2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00",
"2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00"
],
"cutoff": "2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00"
}
},
"price_source": "crypto_spot/1h@:00",
"accuracy_field": {
"A": {
"n": 0,
"hit_rate": null,
"wilson_95": [
null,
null
]
},
"B": {
"n": 59606,
"hit_rate": 0.456,
"wilson_95": [
0.452,
0.46
]
},
"delta_pp": null
},
"accuracy_per_model": [
{
"model": "claude-fable-5",
"model_label": "claude-fable-5",
"A": {
"n": 0,
"hit_rate": null,
"wilson_95": [
null,
null
]
},
"B": {
"n": 8447,
"hit_rate": 0.4554,
"wilson_95": [
0.4448,
0.4661
]
},
"delta_pp": null
},
{
"model": "claude-opus-5",
"model_label": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
"A": {
"n": 0,
"hit_rate": null,
"wilson_95": [
null,
null
]
},
"B": {
"n": 8261,
"hit_rate": 0.4585,
"wilson_95": [
0.4478,
0.4693
]
},
"delta_pp": null
},
{
"model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"model_label": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"A": {
"n": 0,
"hit_rate": null,
"wilson_95": [
null,
null
]
},
"B": {
"n": 7799,
"hit_rate": 0.453,
"wilson_95": [
0.442,
0.4641
]
},
"delta_pp": null
},
{
"model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"model_label": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"A": {
"n": 0,
"hit_rate": null,
"wilson_95": [
null,
null
]
},
"B": {
"n": 9130,
"hit_rate": 0.4716,
"wilson_95": [
0.4614,
0.4819
]
},
"delta_pp": null
},
{
"model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"model_label": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"A": {
"n": 0,
"hit_rate": null,
"wilson_95": [
null,
null
]
},
"B": {
"n": 9188,
"hit_rate": 0.4486,
"wilson_95": [
0.4385,
0.4588
]
},
"delta_pp": null
},
{
"model": "grok-4.6",
"model_label": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
"A": {
"n": 0,
"hit_rate": null,
"wilson_95": [
null,
null
]
},
"B": {
"n": 7244,
"hit_rate": 0.45,
"wilson_95": [
0.4386,
0.4615
]
},
"delta_pp": null
},
{
"model": "qwen-3.8-max",
"model_label": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)",
"A": {
"n": 0,
"hit_rate": null,
"wilson_95": [
null,
null
]
},
"B": {
"n": 9537,
"hit_rate": 0.4535,
"wilson_95": [
0.4435,
0.4635
]
},
"delta_pp": null
}
],
"raw_sign_field": {
"A": {
"n_scored": 0,
"hit_rate": null
},
"B": {
"n_scored": 57798,
"hit_rate": 0.471
}
},
"abs_move_1d": {
"A": null,
"B": 1.806,
"delta_pct_rel": null
},
"btc_realized_vol_ann_pct_hourly": {
"A": null,
"B": 35.11
},
"trading_field": {
"A": {
"n_trades": 0
},
"B": {
"n_trades": 59606,
"wr": 0.354,
"pnl_net_usd": -6703.95,
"pnl_gross_usd": -743.35
}
},
"verdict": {
"models_with_hit_improved": null,
"models_with_rawsign_improved": null,
"models_with_wr_improved": null,
"field_hit_delta_pp": null,
"field_pnl_net": {
"A": null,
"B": -6703.95
},
"abs_move_delta": {
"1h": {
"A": null,
"B": 0.323,
"delta_pct_rel": null
},
"4h": {
"A": null,
"B": 0.672,
"delta_pct_rel": null
},
"1d": {
"A": null,
"B": 1.806,
"delta_pct_rel": null
}
},
"btc_vol_ann_pct": {
"A": null,
"B": 35.11
},
"note": "descriptive, two adjacent windows; hit rule = methodology v1.1 trade-based; raw_sign = price-sign robustness check (closes at :00 vs slots at :01)"
},
"lineage_note": "lineage splice ACTIVE for all 7 heads: [('claude-opus-4.8', 'claude-opus-5'), ('grok-4.5', 'grok-4.6'), ('qwen-3.7-max', 'qwen-3.8-max')]. Window QUARTER remapped 24922 row(s), the previous window 0. Labels are generated from the pulled rows (see lineage_era).",
"prior_window_partial": false,
"by_month": {
"M1": {
"mean_abs_move_1d_pct": 1.536,
"btc_vol_ann_pct_hourly": 33.46,
"field_hit_rate": 0.4498,
"models_improving_vs_previous_month": null,
"raw_sign_hit_rate": 0.4684,
"sim_win_rate": 0.3188,
"sim_net_pnl_usd": -3095.02,
"label": "Jul 15-31"
},
"M2": {
"mean_abs_move_1d_pct": 1.979,
"btc_vol_ann_pct_hourly": 36.92,
"field_hit_rate": 0.4633,
"models_improving_vs_previous_month": "5 of 7",
"raw_sign_hit_rate": 0.4599,
"sim_win_rate": 0.3576,
"sim_net_pnl_usd": -1054.79,
"label": "Aug 1-31"
},
"M3": {
"mean_abs_move_1d_pct": 1.905,
"btc_vol_ann_pct_hourly": 34.88,
"field_hit_rate": 0.455,
"models_improving_vs_previous_month": "1 of 7",
"raw_sign_hit_rate": 0.4837,
"sim_win_rate": 0.384,
"sim_net_pnl_usd": -2554.15,
"label": "Sep 1-30"
},
"quarter": {
"mean_abs_move_1d_pct": 1.806,
"btc_vol_ann_pct_hourly": 35.11,
"field_hit_rate": 0.456,
"models_improving_vs_previous_month": null,
"raw_sign_hit_rate": 0.471,
"sim_win_rate": 0.354,
"sim_net_pnl_usd": -6703.95,
"label": "Jul 15-Sep 30, 2026"
}
}
},
"why_it_matters": "MarketMania scores 7 model lines against the same market, hour after hour. Quarterly Model Watch asks the monthly questions at quarterly n -- who led, which tickers were readable, who saw the turn first, does self-agreement help -- and then asks the three questions a single month cannot answer: which coin the field reads best over a quarter, how far a monthly rank moves inside one quarter, and how the field's accuracy differs between the calm and volatile months the pack labels. Each block gets its own table, its own N and its own caveats.",
"how_to_read_this": "Every block below is scored on the same pool: matured directional calls inside the 1h/4h/1d FH gate, hit by the methodology v1.1 direction rule, over the whole quarter at one cutoff (Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC). The quarterly title is awarded only on a >=5pp gap AND non-overlapping 95% Wilson CIs with N>=10 per side -- a descriptive lead is not a title. Reversals use the 4h grid with a >=2.0% counter-move sustained 8h, BTC/ETH only in v1. Cross-TF/FH blocks ask whether a model agreeing with itself does any better, and are split trend vs flat. The by-month blocks come from the three frozen monthly packs at their own published cutoffs. 3 model lines are lineage splices this quarter (claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30); grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24); qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)).",
"practical_implications": [
"On this quarter's leaderboard no title was awarded, the top two CIs overlap, and 3 distinct model lines led the three months of the quarter.",
"BNB ranked #1 for the quarter on n=10,571; the month-by-month league shows it ranked #1 in 1 of the three published months.",
"The field differs by +0.9pp between the two regimes on n=19,541 calm vs n=40,065 volatile; the rule that draws the line is the pack's own three-month median, recomputed every quarter."
],
"limitations": [
"No prior quarter: this is the first quarterly issue (platform data begin Jul 15, 2026), so every \"prior\" cell reads n/a and the page-2 chart carries no gray series; a month inside the quarter is not a prior window. Partial quarter: the window is the calendar quarter Jul 1-Sep 30; the platform's first forecast slot is Jul 15 18:01 UTC, so 78 of 92 days carry data. Asset universe: the quarter's rows also carry 1,592 directional calls on AVAX (414), DOGE (347), LINK (436), PEPE (394) and TON (1), all in Jul 15-31; they are counted in the field totals but not ranked in the asset tables.",
"Two cutoffs live in this issue. The quarter is frozen at Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC; the three monthly blocks are frozen at their own published cutoffs (M1 Jul 15-31, M2 Aug 1-31, M3 Sep 1-30). A forecast still pending at its month's cutoff is immature in the monthly pack and mature in the quarter pull, so the quarter need not equal the sum of the months; here the two agree (59,606 vs 59,606 directional; no day of the quarter falls outside the three months): the quarter pull split by slot month gives 19,541 / 19,383 / 20,682, the same as the frozen monthly packs.",
"Observations inside one window are not independent, and the 95% Wilson CIs shown throughout are descriptive, not inferential. Ranks are ordinal: a 0.3pp gap and a 6pp gap both read as one rank position, so the rank-stability table prints the hit rate next to every rank.",
"The reversal detector remains v1 and BTC/ETH-only, on price series reconstructed from trade entry prices; 21 events in this window still cannot characterise detector performance. Cross-TF and cross-FH disagreement cells are small (n=314, 75, 321, 84); cells under N=10 are insufficient and never used to rank models.",
"Model lines in this window: claude-fable-5, claude-opus-5 (spliced), deepseek-v4-pro, gemini-3.1-pro, gpt-5.6-sol, grok-4.6 (spliced), qwen-3.8-max (spliced). Series density and lineage notes (quarterly #1): (1) rolling-1w forecasts emit daily since Aug 22, 2026 and rolling-1M daily since Aug 23, 2026, so across this 92-day window daily coverage is PARTIAL as measured -- the 1w series has slots on 55 of 92 days and the 1M series on 41 of 92 days; both sit outside this report's FH gate (1h/4h/1d) and appear only in the exclusions counter (1w 4,001, 1M 2,787). (2) 3 model lines are lineage splices inside this window: claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30); grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24); qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5). (3) Every per-model aggregate in this issue sees the merged head id; the raw id is kept in the pack, and 24,922 rows were remapped inside the quarter (19,532 / 5,390 / 0 in Jul 15-31 / Aug 1-31 / Sep 1-30).",
"Market-state row is computed on a single-exchange (binance) daily candle series, as in the weekly series after the audit that found the raw table mixes two exchanges. The quarter block covers 78 days (Jul 15-Sep 30) of the 92-day calendar quarter, and there is no prior-quarter block, so the TOP5 volume figure is a 78-day sum with no quarter-over-quarter change.",
"Research-to-date counter: directional forecasts resolved inside the FH gate (1h/4h/1d) since Jul 11, counted at the issue cutoff (Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) -- the D2 definition pinned in the weekly series; this issue prints 59,755. The pack carries no prior-cutoff pin for a quarterly window (not applicable: there is no prior quarter, and the prior-cutoff counts are 0 by construction), so the control this issue is the monthly reproduction: the M3 block of this pack (Sep 1-30) reproduces the published Monthly #2 on 7 of 7 checks, the M2 block (Aug 1-31, cutoff Tue Sep 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the published Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks, and the M1 block (Jul 15-31, cutoff Sat Aug 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the prior window of Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks. Counter deltas against pre-wave-3 issues remain definitional."
],
"notes": {
"series_density_and_lineage_quarterly1": "Series density and lineage notes (quarterly #1): (1) rolling-1w forecasts emit daily since Aug 22, 2026 and rolling-1M daily since Aug 23, 2026, so across this 92-day window daily coverage is PARTIAL as measured -- the 1w series has slots on 55 of 92 days and the 1M series on 41 of 92 days; both sit outside this report's FH gate (1h/4h/1d) and appear only in the exclusions counter (1w 4,001, 1M 2,787). (2) 3 model lines are lineage splices inside this window: claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30); grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24); qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5). (3) Every per-model aggregate in this issue sees the merged head id; the raw id is kept in the pack, and 24,922 rows were remapped inside the quarter (19,532 / 5,390 / 0 in Jul 15-31 / Aug 1-31 / Sep 1-30).",
"grok_era": {
"ids_in_window": [
"grok-4.5",
"grok-4.6"
],
"n_grok45": 11128,
"n_grok46": 7870,
"n_grok45_rows": 11128,
"n_grok46_rows": 7870,
"first_grok46_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00",
"last_grok45_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
"first_grok45_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"flip_at": "2026-08-24T09:22:00+00:00",
"flip_inside_window": true,
"prev_window": {
"n_grok45_rows": 0,
"n_grok46_rows": 0
},
"merged_model_id": "grok-4.6",
"merged_label": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
"lineage_ids": [
"grok-4.5",
"grok-4.6"
],
"lineage_source": "benchmarks.config.lineage_ids(head) for each of the 7 heads + MODEL_SUCCESSION[claude-opus-5=('claude-opus-4.8',), grok-4.6=('grok-4.5',), qwen-3.8-max=('qwen-3.7-max',)]",
"lineage_warnings": [],
"rows_remapped_a_plus_b": 11128,
"note": "window QUARTER [2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00, 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00): grok-4.5 rows 11128, grok-4.6 rows 7870; flip 2026-08-24T09:22:00+00:00 is inside this window. All per-model aggregates use the lineage splice grok-4.5 -> grok-4.6 (one row, labelled 'grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)'). See lineage_era for the same facts across all 7 heads.",
"cells_with_two_grok_rows": 865
},
"model_ids_line": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
],
"model_roster": {
"current": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
],
"current_count": 7,
"current_raw_ids_in_window": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-4.8",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.5",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.7-max",
"qwen-3.8-max"
],
"archived_legacy": [
"grok-4.5",
"qwen-3.7-max",
"claude-opus-4.8"
],
"archived_legacy_count": 3,
"archived_legacy_detail": [
{
"model": "grok-4.5",
"n_rows_since": 11128,
"first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00"
},
{
"model": "qwen-3.7-max",
"n_rows_since": 7479,
"first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00"
},
{
"model": "claude-opus-4.8",
"n_rows_since": 6315,
"first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00"
}
],
"archived_excluding_lineage_merged": [],
"tracked_total": 10,
"canon_expected": {
"current": 7,
"archived_legacy": 4,
"tracked_total": 11
},
"matches_canon_11_7_4": false,
"roster_rule_w213": "7 models tracked (current line-up; earlier versions folded into their successors' lineage)",
"canon_expected_w213": {
"current": 7
},
"heads_w213": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
],
"matches_canon_7_current": true,
"heads_missing_in_window": [],
"heads_unexpected_in_window": [],
"roster_since": "2026-07-11T00:00:00+00:00",
"note": "current = merged-lineage model ids emitting inside the window (legacy ids are spliced into their successor); archived legacy = raw ids seen since 2026-07-11 that no longer emit in the window. Models retired before 2026-07-11 are not visible to this query. The canon checks are DESCRIPTIVE: if the data says otherwise, the data wins and is printed."
},
"series_density": {
"1d": {
"days_with_slots": 77,
"expected_days": 92,
"full_daily_coverage": false,
"in_fh_gate": true,
"n_slots": 77,
"n_rows": 6930,
"days": [
"2026-07-16",
"2026-07-17",
"2026-07-18",
"2026-07-19",
"2026-07-20",
"2026-07-21",
"2026-07-22",
"2026-07-23",
"2026-07-24",
"2026-07-25",
"2026-07-26",
"2026-07-27",
"2026-07-28",
"2026-07-29",
"2026-07-30",
"2026-07-31",
"2026-08-01",
"2026-08-02",
"2026-08-03",
"2026-08-04",
"2026-08-05",
"2026-08-06",
"2026-08-07",
"2026-08-08",
"2026-08-09",
"2026-08-10",
"2026-08-11",
"2026-08-12",
"2026-08-13",
"2026-08-14",
"2026-08-15",
"2026-08-16",
"2026-08-17",
"2026-08-18",
"2026-08-19",
"2026-08-20",
"2026-08-21",
"2026-08-22",
"2026-08-23",
"2026-08-24",
"2026-08-25",
"2026-08-26",
"2026-08-27",
"2026-08-28",
"2026-08-29",
"2026-08-30",
"2026-08-31",
"2026-09-01",
"2026-09-02",
"2026-09-03",
"2026-09-04",
"2026-09-05",
"2026-09-06",
"2026-09-07",
"2026-09-08",
"2026-09-09",
"2026-09-10",
"2026-09-11",
"2026-09-12",
"2026-09-13",
"2026-09-14",
"2026-09-15",
"2026-09-16",
"2026-09-17",
"2026-09-18",
"2026-09-19",
"2026-09-20",
"2026-09-21",
"2026-09-22",
"2026-09-23",
"2026-09-24",
"2026-09-25",
"2026-09-26",
"2026-09-27",
"2026-09-28",
"2026-09-29",
"2026-09-30"
],
"missing_days": [
"2026-07-01",
"2026-07-02",
"2026-07-03",
"2026-07-04",
"2026-07-05",
"2026-07-06",
"2026-07-07",
"2026-07-08",
"2026-07-09",
"2026-07-10",
"2026-07-11",
"2026-07-12",
"2026-07-13",
"2026-07-14",
"2026-07-15"
]
},
"1h": {
"days_with_slots": 78,
"expected_days": 92,
"full_daily_coverage": false,
"in_fh_gate": true,
"n_slots": 1851,
"n_rows": 78685,
"days": [
"2026-07-15",
"2026-07-16",
"2026-07-17",
"2026-07-18",
"2026-07-19",
"2026-07-20",
"2026-07-21",
"2026-07-22",
"2026-07-23",
"2026-07-24",
"2026-07-25",
"2026-07-26",
"2026-07-27",
"2026-07-28",
"2026-07-29",
"2026-07-30",
"2026-07-31",
"2026-08-01",
"2026-08-02",
"2026-08-03",
"2026-08-04",
"2026-08-05",
"2026-08-06",
"2026-08-07",
"2026-08-08",
"2026-08-09",
"2026-08-10",
"2026-08-11",
"2026-08-12",
"2026-08-13",
"2026-08-14",
"2026-08-15",
"2026-08-16",
"2026-08-17",
"2026-08-18",
"2026-08-19",
"2026-08-20",
"2026-08-21",
"2026-08-22",
"2026-08-23",
"2026-08-24",
"2026-08-25",
"2026-08-26",
"2026-08-27",
"2026-08-28",
"2026-08-29",
"2026-08-30",
"2026-08-31",
"2026-09-01",
"2026-09-02",
"2026-09-03",
"2026-09-04",
"2026-09-05",
"2026-09-06",
"2026-09-07",
"2026-09-08",
"2026-09-09",
"2026-09-10",
"2026-09-11",
"2026-09-12",
"2026-09-13",
"2026-09-14",
"2026-09-15",
"2026-09-16",
"2026-09-17",
"2026-09-18",
"2026-09-19",
"2026-09-20",
"2026-09-21",
"2026-09-22",
"2026-09-23",
"2026-09-24",
"2026-09-25",
"2026-09-26",
"2026-09-27",
"2026-09-28",
"2026-09-29",
"2026-09-30"
],
"missing_days": [
"2026-07-01",
"2026-07-02",
"2026-07-03",
"2026-07-04",
"2026-07-05",
"2026-07-06",
"2026-07-07",
"2026-07-08",
"2026-07-09",
"2026-07-10",
"2026-07-11",
"2026-07-12",
"2026-07-13",
"2026-07-14"
]
},
"1m": {
"days_with_slots": 41,
"expected_days": 92,
"full_daily_coverage": false,
"in_fh_gate": false,
"n_slots": 41,
"n_rows": 2940,
"days": [
"2026-07-20",
"2026-08-01",
"2026-08-23",
"2026-08-24",
"2026-08-25",
"2026-08-26",
"2026-08-27",
"2026-08-28",
"2026-08-29",
"2026-08-30",
"2026-08-31",
"2026-09-01",
"2026-09-02",
"2026-09-03",
"2026-09-04",
"2026-09-05",
"2026-09-06",
"2026-09-07",
"2026-09-08",
"2026-09-09",
"2026-09-10",
"2026-09-11",
"2026-09-12",
"2026-09-13",
"2026-09-14",
"2026-09-15",
"2026-09-16",
"2026-09-17",
"2026-09-18",
"2026-09-19",
"2026-09-20",
"2026-09-21",
"2026-09-22",
"2026-09-23",
"2026-09-24",
"2026-09-25",
"2026-09-26",
"2026-09-27",
"2026-09-28",
"2026-09-29",
"2026-09-30"
],
"missing_days": [
"2026-07-01",
"2026-07-02",
"2026-07-03",
"2026-07-04",
"2026-07-05",
"2026-07-06",
"2026-07-07",
"2026-07-08",
"2026-07-09",
"2026-07-10",
"2026-07-11",
"2026-07-12",
"2026-07-13",
"2026-07-14",
"2026-07-15",
"2026-07-16",
"2026-07-17",
"2026-07-18",
"2026-07-19",
"2026-07-21",
"2026-07-22",
"2026-07-23",
"2026-07-24",
"2026-07-25",
"2026-07-26",
"2026-07-27",
"2026-07-28",
"2026-07-29",
"2026-07-30",
"2026-07-31",
"2026-08-02",
"2026-08-03",
"2026-08-04",
"2026-08-05",
"2026-08-06",
"2026-08-07",
"2026-08-08",
"2026-08-09",
"2026-08-10",
"2026-08-11",
"2026-08-12",
"2026-08-13",
"2026-08-14",
"2026-08-15",
"2026-08-16",
"2026-08-17",
"2026-08-18",
"2026-08-19",
"2026-08-20",
"2026-08-21",
"2026-08-22"
]
},
"1w": {
"days_with_slots": 55,
"expected_days": 92,
"full_daily_coverage": false,
"in_fh_gate": false,
"n_slots": 55,
"n_rows": 4830,
"days": [
"2026-07-16",
"2026-07-17",
"2026-07-18",
"2026-07-19",
"2026-07-20",
"2026-07-21",
"2026-07-22",
"2026-07-23",
"2026-07-24",
"2026-07-25",
"2026-07-26",
"2026-07-27",
"2026-08-03",
"2026-08-10",
"2026-08-17",
"2026-08-22",
"2026-08-23",
"2026-08-24",
"2026-08-25",
"2026-08-26",
"2026-08-27",
"2026-08-28",
"2026-08-29",
"2026-08-30",
"2026-08-31",
"2026-09-01",
"2026-09-02",
"2026-09-03",
"2026-09-04",
"2026-09-05",
"2026-09-06",
"2026-09-07",
"2026-09-08",
"2026-09-09",
"2026-09-10",
"2026-09-11",
"2026-09-12",
"2026-09-13",
"2026-09-14",
"2026-09-15",
"2026-09-16",
"2026-09-17",
"2026-09-18",
"2026-09-19",
"2026-09-20",
"2026-09-21",
"2026-09-22",
"2026-09-23",
"2026-09-24",
"2026-09-25",
"2026-09-26",
"2026-09-27",
"2026-09-28",
"2026-09-29",
"2026-09-30"
],
"missing_days": [
"2026-07-01",
"2026-07-02",
"2026-07-03",
"2026-07-04",
"2026-07-05",
"2026-07-06",
"2026-07-07",
"2026-07-08",
"2026-07-09",
"2026-07-10",
"2026-07-11",
"2026-07-12",
"2026-07-13",
"2026-07-14",
"2026-07-15",
"2026-07-28",
"2026-07-29",
"2026-07-30",
"2026-07-31",
"2026-08-01",
"2026-08-02",
"2026-08-04",
"2026-08-05",
"2026-08-06",
"2026-08-07",
"2026-08-08",
"2026-08-09",
"2026-08-11",
"2026-08-12",
"2026-08-13",
"2026-08-14",
"2026-08-15",
"2026-08-16",
"2026-08-18",
"2026-08-19",
"2026-08-20",
"2026-08-21"
]
},
"4h": {
"days_with_slots": 78,
"expected_days": 92,
"full_daily_coverage": false,
"in_fh_gate": true,
"n_slots": 462,
"n_rows": 39654,
"days": [
"2026-07-15",
"2026-07-16",
"2026-07-17",
"2026-07-18",
"2026-07-19",
"2026-07-20",
"2026-07-21",
"2026-07-22",
"2026-07-23",
"2026-07-24",
"2026-07-25",
"2026-07-26",
"2026-07-27",
"2026-07-28",
"2026-07-29",
"2026-07-30",
"2026-07-31",
"2026-08-01",
"2026-08-02",
"2026-08-03",
"2026-08-04",
"2026-08-05",
"2026-08-06",
"2026-08-07",
"2026-08-08",
"2026-08-09",
"2026-08-10",
"2026-08-11",
"2026-08-12",
"2026-08-13",
"2026-08-14",
"2026-08-15",
"2026-08-16",
"2026-08-17",
"2026-08-18",
"2026-08-19",
"2026-08-20",
"2026-08-21",
"2026-08-22",
"2026-08-23",
"2026-08-24",
"2026-08-25",
"2026-08-26",
"2026-08-27",
"2026-08-28",
"2026-08-29",
"2026-08-30",
"2026-08-31",
"2026-09-01",
"2026-09-02",
"2026-09-03",
"2026-09-04",
"2026-09-05",
"2026-09-06",
"2026-09-07",
"2026-09-08",
"2026-09-09",
"2026-09-10",
"2026-09-11",
"2026-09-12",
"2026-09-13",
"2026-09-14",
"2026-09-15",
"2026-09-16",
"2026-09-17",
"2026-09-18",
"2026-09-19",
"2026-09-20",
"2026-09-21",
"2026-09-22",
"2026-09-23",
"2026-09-24",
"2026-09-25",
"2026-09-26",
"2026-09-27",
"2026-09-28",
"2026-09-29",
"2026-09-30"
],
"missing_days": [
"2026-07-01",
"2026-07-02",
"2026-07-03",
"2026-07-04",
"2026-07-05",
"2026-07-06",
"2026-07-07",
"2026-07-08",
"2026-07-09",
"2026-07-10",
"2026-07-11",
"2026-07-12",
"2026-07-13",
"2026-07-14"
]
}
},
"month_over_month_note": "Quarter-over-quarter columns would compare the prior quarter against Jul 15-Sep 30 (this issue); every prior cell reads n/a because this is the first quarterly issue: there is no prior quarter (platform data begin Jul 15, 2026).",
"research_to_date_pin": "Research-to-date counter: directional forecasts resolved inside the FH gate (1h/4h/1d) since Jul 11, counted at the issue cutoff (Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) -- the D2 definition pinned in the weekly series; this issue prints 59,755. The pack carries no prior-cutoff pin for a quarterly window (not applicable: there is no prior quarter, and the prior-cutoff counts are 0 by construction), so the control this issue is the monthly reproduction: the M3 block of this pack (Sep 1-30) reproduces the published Monthly #2 on 7 of 7 checks, the M2 block (Aug 1-31, cutoff Tue Sep 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the published Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks, and the M1 block (Jul 15-31, cutoff Sat Aug 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the prior window of Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks. Counter deltas against pre-wave-3 issues remain definitional.",
"market_state_audit": "Market-state row is computed on a single-exchange (binance) daily candle series, as in the weekly series after the audit that found the raw table mixes two exchanges. The quarter block covers 78 days (Jul 15-Sep 30) of the 92-day calendar quarter, and there is no prior-quarter block, so the TOP5 volume figure is a 78-day sum with no quarter-over-quarter change.",
"engine": "Engine 1.1 has powered the sandbox since Aug 18, i.e. inside this window; no cross-engine PnL comparisons are claimed.",
"report_template": "PDF built with the canonical mm_report.py template module; preview card with report_preview.render_preview",
"lineage_era": {
"window_key": "QUARTER",
"heads": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
],
"lineage_map": {
"claude-opus-4.8": "claude-opus-5",
"grok-4.5": "grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.7-max": "qwen-3.8-max"
},
"legacy_by_head": {
"claude-fable-5": [],
"claude-opus-5": [
"claude-opus-4.8"
],
"deepseek-v4-pro": [],
"gemini-3.1-pro": [],
"gpt-5.6-sol": [],
"grok-4.6": [
"grok-4.5"
],
"qwen-3.8-max": [
"qwen-3.7-max"
]
},
"lineage_source": "benchmarks.config.lineage_ids(head) for each of the 7 heads + MODEL_SUCCESSION[claude-opus-5=('claude-opus-4.8',), grok-4.6=('grok-4.5',), qwen-3.8-max=('qwen-3.7-max',)]",
"lineage_resolved_heads": [
"claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
],
"lineage_warnings": [],
"per_head": {
"claude-fable-5": {
"legacy_ids": [],
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
"by_legacy_id": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
"n_rows_successor": 19009,
"spliced_in_window": false,
"label": "claude-fable-5"
},
"claude-opus-5": {
"legacy_ids": [
"claude-opus-4.8"
],
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
"claude-opus-4.8"
],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"claude-opus-4.8": 6315
},
"n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
"claude-opus-4.8": 0
},
"by_legacy_id": {
"claude-opus-4.8": {
"n_rows_remapped": {
"QUARTER": 6315,
"prev_window": 0
},
"first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
"first_slot_prev_window": null,
"last_slot_prev_window": null
}
},
"first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
"last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
"n_rows_successor": 12695,
"spliced_in_window": true,
"label": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)"
},
"deepseek-v4-pro": {
"legacy_ids": [],
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
"by_legacy_id": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
"n_rows_successor": 19007,
"spliced_in_window": false,
"label": "deepseek-v4-pro"
},
"gemini-3.1-pro": {
"legacy_ids": [],
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
"by_legacy_id": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
"n_rows_successor": 19006,
"spliced_in_window": false,
"label": "gemini-3.1-pro"
},
"gpt-5.6-sol": {
"legacy_ids": [],
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
"by_legacy_id": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
"n_rows_successor": 19010,
"spliced_in_window": false,
"label": "gpt-5.6-sol"
},
"grok-4.6": {
"legacy_ids": [
"grok-4.5"
],
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
"grok-4.5"
],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"grok-4.5": 11128
},
"n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
"grok-4.5": 0
},
"by_legacy_id": {
"grok-4.5": {
"n_rows_remapped": {
"QUARTER": 11128,
"prev_window": 0
},
"first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
"first_slot_prev_window": null,
"last_slot_prev_window": null
}
},
"first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
"first_successor_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00",
"last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
"n_rows_successor": 7870,
"spliced_in_window": true,
"label": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)"
},
"qwen-3.8-max": {
"legacy_ids": [
"qwen-3.7-max"
],
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
"qwen-3.7-max"
],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"qwen-3.7-max": 7479
},
"n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
"qwen-3.7-max": 0
},
"by_legacy_id": {
"qwen-3.7-max": {
"n_rows_remapped": {
"QUARTER": 7479,
"prev_window": 0
},
"first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
"first_slot_prev_window": null,
"last_slot_prev_window": null
}
},
"first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
"first_successor_slot": "2026-08-05T10:01:00+00:00",
"last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
"n_rows_successor": 11520,
"spliced_in_window": true,
"label": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
}
},
"labels": {
"claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
"deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
"qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
},
"rows_remapped_window": 24922,
"rows_remapped_prev_window": 0,
"note": "Only the 7 current models are tracked; earlier versions are folded into their successors' lineage. Every per-model aggregate in this pack sees the merged head id; the raw id survives in model_raw. Labels and era spans are generated from the pulled rows, not hardcoded.",
"cells_with_two_rows_per_head": {
"claude-fable-5": 1257,
"claude-opus-5": 1258,
"deepseek-v4-pro": 1257,
"gemini-3.1-pro": 1230,
"gpt-5.6-sol": 1258,
"grok-4.6": 865,
"qwen-3.8-max": 1253
}
},
"frozen_cutoffs": "Two cutoffs live in this issue. The quarter is frozen at Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC; the three monthly blocks are frozen at their own published cutoffs (M1 Jul 15-31, M2 Aug 1-31, M3 Sep 1-30). A forecast still pending at its month's cutoff is immature in the monthly pack and mature in the quarter pull, so the quarter need not equal the sum of the months; here the two agree (59,606 vs 59,606 directional; no day of the quarter falls outside the three months): the quarter pull split by slot month gives 19,541 / 19,383 / 20,682, the same as the frozen monthly packs.",
"partial_prior_window": "No prior quarter: this is the first quarterly issue (platform data begin Jul 15, 2026), so every \"prior\" cell reads n/a and the page-2 chart carries no gray series; a month inside the quarter is not a prior window. Partial quarter: the window is the calendar quarter Jul 1-Sep 30; the platform's first forecast slot is Jul 15 18:01 UTC, so 78 of 92 days carry data. Asset universe: the quarter's rows also carry 1,592 directional calls on AVAX (414), DOGE (347), LINK (436), PEPE (394) and TON (1), all in Jul 15-31; they are counted in the field totals but not ranked in the asset tables."
},
"living_series_note": "**Issue #1.** Quarterly Model Watch is a living quarterly comparison; each issue appends one more calendar quarter of leaderboard, asset-league, rank-stability and regime data. This first issue sets the baseline on a partial quarter (Jul 15-Sep 30): gemini-3.1-pro at the top (47.2%), 13 of 21 qualifying turns found a caller, 0 of 5 tickers above 51%, 3 distinct model lines leading the three months and a calm-vs-volatile field difference of +0.9pp; there is no prior quarter. 3 model lines are lineage splices this quarter (claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30); grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24); qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)). Engine 1.1 has powered the sandbox since Aug 18, i.e. inside this window; no cross-engine PnL comparisons are claimed.",
"testing_next": [
"Quarterly #2 (Q4 2026): the same three series over Oct 1-Dec 31, cut on Jan 1 plus the maturity lag, so its quarter-over-quarter comparison runs against this partial Q3.",
"Quarterly Config Watch #1: the same Q3 window through the config search engine (w309), published as the fourth quarterly report of this issue.",
"Quarterly Stability Index: Run 3, the next repeat-prompt stability run, is the first cross-quarter point on model stability."
],
"related_research": [
{
"title": "Quarterly Consensus Watch #1",
"url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/consensus-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf"
},
{
"title": "Quarterly Calibration #1",
"url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/calibration-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf"
},
{
"title": "Monthly Model Watch #2",
"url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/model-watch-monthly-2026-09.pdf"
}
],
"related_research_note": "The three quarterly reports publish together as one issue each quarter; each links straight to the others' PDF and to the last monthly issue of the same series. Direct links are the posting rule from wave 2 on.",
"research_to_date": {
"this_report": {
"scored_observations": 59606
},
"platform": {
"as_of_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
"resolved_forecasts": 59755,
"resolved_forecasts_definition": "directional forecasts resolved inside the FH gate (1h/4h/1d) since Jul 11, at the issue cutoff",
"resolved_forecasts_since": "2026-07-11",
"models_tracked": 7,
"models_tracked_detail": "7 models tracked (current line-up; earlier versions folded into their successors' lineage)",
"assets": 5,
"forecast_horizons": 5,
"cadence": "hourly",
"published_research_reports": 49
},
"source": "quarterly_metrics_2026-q3.json",
"control_reproduces_wave3_pin": null,
"pin_note": "Research-to-date counter: directional forecasts resolved inside the FH gate (1h/4h/1d) since Jul 11, counted at the issue cutoff (Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) -- the D2 definition pinned in the weekly series; this issue prints 59,755. The pack carries no prior-cutoff pin for a quarterly window (not applicable: there is no prior quarter, and the prior-cutoff counts are 0 by construction), so the control this issue is the monthly reproduction: the M3 block of this pack (Sep 1-30) reproduces the published Monthly #2 on 7 of 7 checks, the M2 block (Aug 1-31, cutoff Tue Sep 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the published Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks, and the M1 block (Jul 15-31, cutoff Sat Aug 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the prior window of Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks. Counter deltas against pre-wave-3 issues remain definitional.",
"control_last_month_reproduces_monthly2": {
"pins_source": "the published Monthly #2 JSONs calibration-monthly-2026-09.json, consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json, model-watch-monthly-2026-09.json",
"note": "M3 of this run is the Monthly #2 window with the Monthly #2 frozen cutoff, so every pin must reproduce exactly. A mismatch means the window or the cutoff moved -- non-fatal here, but the quarterly numbers must not be published until it is explained.",
"checks": {
"counters.mature_directional": {
"pin": 20682,
"got": 20682,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0
},
"calibration.field.hit_rate": {
"pin": 0.455,
"got": 0.455,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 5e-05
},
"calibration.field.gap_pp": {
"pin": 17.0,
"got": 17.0,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0.05
},
"consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp": {
"pin": -9.7,
"got": -9.7,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0.05
},
"model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].model": {
"pin": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"got": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0
},
"model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].hit_rate": {
"pin": 0.4851,
"got": 0.4851,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 5e-05
},
"research_to_date.canonical_value_at_cutoff": {
"pin": 59755,
"got": 59755,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0
}
},
"all_match": true,
"n_checks": 7,
"n_match": 7,
"last_month_key": "M3",
"window_key": "M3"
},
"prior_cutoff_control": "not applicable: no prior quarter (the pack's research_to_date.prev_pin_applicable is false)"
},
"citation": {
"bibtex_key": "mm_modelwatch_quarterly_2026q3",
"title": "Quarterly Model Watch #1: quarterly leaderboard, asset league, rank stability and regime split, Jul 15-Sep 30 2026",
"author": "MarketMania Research",
"year": 2026,
"month": "October",
"day": 8,
"url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/model-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf",
"note": "Methodology v1.1; window Jul 15-Sep 30, 2026 UTC; source quarterly_metrics_2026-q3.json"
},
"site_entry": {
"slug": "model-watch-quarterly-2026-q3",
"series": "quarterly",
"seriesLabel": "Quarterly · Model Watch",
"date": "October 8, 2026",
"title": "Quarterly Model Watch #1",
"summary": "59,606 directional calls over one calendar quarter (Q3 2026, partial: platform data from Jul 15), three questions the monthly series cannot answer: which coin the field reads best over a quarter, how far a monthly rank moves inside one quarter, and how accuracy differs between the calm and the volatile months. No quarterly title — gemini-3.1-pro led at 47.2% against claude-opus-5 (spliced) at 45.9%, a gap of 1.3pp, while 3 different model lines held the monthly top spot across the three months. BNB was the most readable ticker at 46.3% and SOL the hardest at 44.9%, with 0 of 5 assets above 51 percent. Calm months hit 45.0% against 45.9% in the volatile ones (+0.9pp). Reversals: 13 of 21 qualifying turns found a caller. Field accuracy read 45.0% / 46.3% / 45.5% by month (45.6% over the quarter).",
"stats": [
"59,606 directional calls",
"No quarterly title",
"field hit 45.6%"
],
"manifest_key_finding": "Across the three months the field hit 45.0% / 46.3% / 45.5% (45.6% over the quarter); gemini-3.1-pro led the quarter at 47.2%, 3 different model lines led the three months, and no quarterly title was awarded.",
"files": {
"pdf": "/research/reports/model-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf",
"md": "/research/reports/model-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.md",
"json": "/research/reports/model-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.json"
}
},
"social": {
"telegram": {
"photo_caption_html": "📊 Quarterly Model Watch #1 — quarterly series, window Jul 15–Sep 30 (Q3 2026, partial)\n\nWho led, what was readable, who saw the turn? 59,606 directional calls, 7 lines, one quarter:\n• No quarterly title — gemini-3.1-pro leads at 47.2% against claude-opus-5 (spliced) at 45.9%, a 1.3pp gap\n• Rank stability: 3 different lines topped the three months\n• Asset league: BNB most readable (46.3%); SOL hardest at 44.9% — 0 of 5 above 51%\n• Calm vs volatile months: field 45.0% vs 45.9% (+0.9pp)\n• Reversals: 13 of 21 qualifying turns found a caller\n• Market check: field 45.0% / 46.3% / 45.5% by month (45.6% for the quarter)\n\nNote: first quarterly issue, no prior quarter; platform data begin Jul 15\n\n📄 Full report (PDF) · all research\n\n#cryptotrading #LLM #AI #crypto #trading #models #research #Quarterly",
"document_caption_html": "📄 Quarterly Model Watch #1 — full report (PDF).\nWeb copy: model-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf · machine-readable: JSON · all research\n\n#cryptotrading #LLM #AI #crypto #trading #models #research #Quarterly",
"caption_len": 977,
"document_caption_len": 425,
"limit": 1024
},
"x": {
"main": "Quarterly Model Watch #1 is out.\n\n59,606 directional LLM calls over Q3 (data from Jul 15): gemini-3.1-pro led at 47.2% but 3 different lines topped the three months. BNB was the most readable coin.\n\nFull report: https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/model-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf\n\n#AI #Crypto #Research #LLM",
"main_tco_len": 263,
"reply": "Hit-rate, Jul 15-31 -> quarter:\ngemini-3.1: 45.1 -> 47.2\nopus-5: 44.9 -> 45.9\nfable-5: 44.5 -> 45.5\nqwen-3.8: 45.7 -> 45.4\ndeepseek: 45.1 -> 45.3\ngrok-4.6: 45.3 -> 45.0\ngpt-5.6: 44.3 -> 44.9\nField: 45.6 for Q3. Calm 45.0% vs volatile 45.9%.\nData: https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/model-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.json",
"reply_tco_len": 270,
"limit_tco": 280,
"replies_max": 1
}
},
"monthly_window": {
"start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00",
"end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00",
"text": "Jul 15-Sep 30, 2026 UTC",
"cutoff": "2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00",
"cutoff_text": "Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC",
"days": 92,
"label": "Jul 15-Sep 30",
"badge": "Q3 2026 (partial: platform data from Jul 15)",
"cell": "Q3 2026 · Jul 15-Sep 30 · partial",
"partial": true,
"effective_start": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"days_with_data": 78,
"nominal_text": "Jul 1-Sep 30, 2026",
"partial_note": "Q3 2026 is partial: the first forecasts of the platform are from 2026-07-11 and its first candles from 2026-07-15; the window is the calendar quarter 2026-07-01 .. 2026-10-01 and effective_start is computed from the rows"
},
"prior_window": {
"start": "2026-04-01T00:00:00+00:00",
"end": "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00",
"text": "n/a (no prior quarter)",
"printed_as": "the prior quarter",
"cutoff_text": "Wed Jul 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC",
"partial": false,
"note": "no prior quarter: there is nothing before the platform start (forecasts since 2026-07-11; candles since 2026-07-15)",
"applicable": false,
"not_applicable_reason": "no prior quarter: there is nothing before the platform start (forecasts since 2026-07-11; candles since 2026-07-15)",
"source": null,
"effective_start": null,
"counters": null,
"definitions": null
},
"weeks_index": {
"M1": {
"label": "Jul 15-31",
"issue": "Monthly #1 (prior window)",
"published_slug_suffix": [
"2026-07-01T00:00:00Z",
"2026-08-01T00:00:00Z"
],
"bounds": [
"2026-07-01T00:00:00Z",
"2026-08-01T00:00:00Z"
],
"regime": "calm",
"effective_start": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
},
"M2": {
"label": "Aug 1-31",
"issue": "Monthly #1",
"published_slug_suffix": [
"2026-08-01T00:00:00Z",
"2026-09-01T00:00:00Z"
],
"bounds": [
"2026-08-01T00:00:00Z",
"2026-09-01T00:00:00Z"
],
"regime": "volatile",
"effective_start": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
},
"M3": {
"label": "Sep 1-30",
"issue": "Monthly #2",
"published_slug_suffix": [
"2026-09-01T00:00:00Z",
"2026-10-01T00:00:00Z"
],
"bounds": [
"2026-09-01T00:00:00Z",
"2026-10-01T00:00:00Z"
],
"regime": "volatile",
"effective_start": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
}
},
"roster_rule": "7 models tracked (current line-up; earlier versions folded into their successors' lineage)",
"lineage_labels": {
"labels": {
"claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
"deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
"qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
},
"spliced_in_window": [
"claude-opus-5",
"grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max"
],
"cell_form": {
"claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (spliced)",
"grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (spliced)",
"qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (spliced)"
},
"families": [
"opus",
"grok",
"qwen"
]
},
"controls": {
"last_month_reproduces_monthly2": {
"pins_source": "the published Monthly #2 JSONs calibration-monthly-2026-09.json, consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json, model-watch-monthly-2026-09.json",
"note": "M3 of this run is the Monthly #2 window with the Monthly #2 frozen cutoff, so every pin must reproduce exactly. A mismatch means the window or the cutoff moved -- non-fatal here, but the quarterly numbers must not be published until it is explained.",
"checks": {
"counters.mature_directional": {
"pin": 20682,
"got": 20682,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0
},
"calibration.field.hit_rate": {
"pin": 0.455,
"got": 0.455,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 5e-05
},
"calibration.field.gap_pp": {
"pin": 17.0,
"got": 17.0,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0.05
},
"consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp": {
"pin": -9.7,
"got": -9.7,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0.05
},
"model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].model": {
"pin": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"got": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0
},
"model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].hit_rate": {
"pin": 0.4851,
"got": 0.4851,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 5e-05
},
"research_to_date.canonical_value_at_cutoff": {
"pin": 59755,
"got": 59755,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0
}
},
"all_match": true,
"n_checks": 7,
"n_match": 7,
"last_month_key": "M3",
"window_key": "M3"
},
"quarter_vs_months": {
"quarter": 59606,
"sum_months": 59606,
"per_month": {
"M1": 19541,
"M2": 19383,
"M3": 20682
},
"remainder_days": [],
"remainder_days_n": 0,
"remainder_mature_directional_quarter_pull": 0,
"remainder_by_day": {},
"sum_months_plus_remainder": 59606,
"quarter_minus_sum_months_plus_remainder": 0,
"quarter_pull_by_month": {
"M1": 19541,
"M2": 19383,
"M3": 20682
},
"note": "These WILL differ, and the difference is expected: each monthly pack is computed at its own frozen cutoff (month_end + 16h), while the QUARTER pack is computed at 2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00. A forecast still pending at its month's cutoff (trade not yet closed) is immature in the monthly pack and mature in the QUARTER pack, so quarter >= sum_months + remainder (M3 has the QUARTER cutoff). remainder_days_n counts the calendar days of the quarter outside the three calendar months (none). quarter_pull_by_month is the same quarter pull split by slot month at the QUARTER cutoff -- compare THAT with per_month to see the cutoff effect alone. days_without_rows_from_window_start = whole days from the window start to the first slot of the QUARTER pull.",
"days_without_rows_from_window_start": 14
},
"lineage_splice_counts": {
"M1": {
"claude-opus-4.8": 6315,
"grok-4.5": 6608,
"qwen-3.7-max": 6609
},
"M2": {
"claude-opus-4.8": 0,
"grok-4.5": 4520,
"qwen-3.7-max": 870
},
"M3": {
"claude-opus-4.8": 0,
"grok-4.5": 0,
"qwen-3.7-max": 0
},
"QUARTER": {
"claude-opus-4.8": 6315,
"grok-4.5": 11128,
"qwen-3.7-max": 7479
}
},
"lineage_splice_detail": {
"QUARTER": {
"total_window": 24922,
"total_prev_window": 0,
"labels": {
"claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
"deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
"qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
},
"per_head": {
"claude-fable-5": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
},
"claude-opus-5": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
"claude-opus-4.8"
],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"claude-opus-4.8": 6315
},
"first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00"
},
"deepseek-v4-pro": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
},
"gemini-3.1-pro": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
},
"gpt-5.6-sol": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
},
"grok-4.6": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
"grok-4.5"
],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"grok-4.5": 11128
},
"first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
"first_successor_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00"
},
"qwen-3.8-max": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
"qwen-3.7-max"
],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"qwen-3.7-max": 7479
},
"first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
"first_successor_slot": "2026-08-05T10:01:00+00:00"
}
}
},
"M1": {
"total_window": 19532,
"total_prev_window": 0,
"labels": {
"claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
"deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-31)",
"qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-31)"
},
"per_head": {
"claude-fable-5": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
},
"claude-opus-5": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
"claude-opus-4.8"
],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"claude-opus-4.8": 6315
},
"first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00"
},
"deepseek-v4-pro": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
},
"gemini-3.1-pro": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
},
"gpt-5.6-sol": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
},
"grok-4.6": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
"grok-4.5"
],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"grok-4.5": 6608
},
"first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-31T23:01:00+00:00",
"first_successor_slot": null
},
"qwen-3.8-max": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
"qwen-3.7-max"
],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"qwen-3.7-max": 6609
},
"first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
"last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-31T23:01:00+00:00",
"first_successor_slot": null
}
}
},
"M2": {
"total_window": 5390,
"total_prev_window": 19532,
"labels": {
"claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Aug 1-24)",
"qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Aug 1-5)"
},
"per_head": {
"claude-fable-5": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
},
"claude-opus-5": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"claude-opus-4.8": 0
},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
},
"deepseek-v4-pro": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
},
"gemini-3.1-pro": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
},
"gpt-5.6-sol": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
},
"grok-4.6": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
"grok-4.5"
],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"grok-4.5": 4520
},
"first_legacy_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00",
"last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
"first_successor_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00"
},
"qwen-3.8-max": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
"qwen-3.7-max"
],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"qwen-3.7-max": 870
},
"first_legacy_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00",
"last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
"first_successor_slot": "2026-08-05T10:01:00+00:00"
}
}
},
"M3": {
"total_window": 0,
"total_prev_window": 5390,
"labels": {
"claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
"claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5",
"deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
"gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"grok-4.6": "grok-4.6",
"qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max"
},
"per_head": {
"claude-fable-5": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
},
"claude-opus-5": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"claude-opus-4.8": 0
},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
},
"deepseek-v4-pro": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
},
"gemini-3.1-pro": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
},
"gpt-5.6-sol": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
},
"grok-4.6": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"grok-4.5": 0
},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
},
"qwen-3.8-max": {
"legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
"n_rows_remapped": {
"qwen-3.7-max": 0
},
"first_legacy_slot": null,
"last_legacy_slot": null,
"first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
}
}
}
},
"d2_at_cutoff": {
"window_key": "QUARTER",
"cutoff": "2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00",
"canonical_definition": "D2_directional_only",
"canonical_value_at_cutoff": 59755,
"since": "2026-07-11T00:00:00+00:00",
"d1_d3_at_cutoff": {
"D1_expired_ok_in_gate": 122919,
"D2_directional_only": 59755,
"D3_weekly_rule_mature": 122770
},
"marker": "RTD-D2-QUARTERLY=59755",
"note": "this is the quarterly RTD pin -- the number that goes into the Quarterly plain boxes",
"monthly2_published": 59755,
"m3_canonical_value_at_cutoff": 59755,
"equals_monthly2": true
},
"prior_window_summary": {
"applicable": false,
"note": "prior window: not applicable (no prior quarter: there is nothing before the platform start (forecasts since 2026-07-11; candles since 2026-07-15))",
"window_key": "QUARTER",
"start": "2026-04-01T00:00:00+00:00",
"end": "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00",
"cutoff": "2026-07-01T16:00:00+00:00",
"rows_in_prior_window": 0,
"reason": "no prior quarter: there is nothing before the platform start (forecasts since 2026-07-11; candles since 2026-07-15)"
},
"m2_reproduces_monthly1": {
"pins_source": "the published Monthly #1 JSONs calibration-monthly-2026-08.json, consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json, model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json (window 2026-08-01 .. 2026-09-01, cutoff 2026-09-01T16:00Z)",
"note": "the M2 pack of this run has the window, the cutoff and the definitions of the month Monthly #1 published; each check is printed and stored as a fact. A mismatch is not fatal and nothing is adjusted to match.",
"applicable": true,
"d2_cutoff_used": "2026-09-01T16:00:00+00:00",
"d2_slot_bound": "2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00",
"checks": {
"counters.mature_directional": {
"pin": 19383,
"got": 19383,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.counters.mature_directional"
},
"calibration.field.hit_rate": {
"pin": 0.4633,
"got": 0.4633,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 5e-05,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.calibration_main[7].hit_rate"
},
"calibration.field.gap_pp": {
"pin": 16.3,
"got": 16.3,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0.05,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.calibration_main[7].gap_pp"
},
"consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp": {
"pin": 1.9,
"got": 1.9,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0.05,
"published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.pooled.lift_pp"
},
"model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].model": {
"pin": "claude-opus-5",
"got": "claude-opus-5",
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0,
"published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.leaderboard.rows[0].model"
},
"model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].hit_rate": {
"pin": 0.4779,
"got": 0.4779,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 5e-05,
"published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.leaderboard.rows[0].hit_rate"
},
"research_to_date.canonical_value_at_cutoff": {
"pin": 39073,
"got": 39073,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0,
"published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.research_to_date.platform.resolved_forecasts"
}
},
"all_match": true,
"n_checks": 7,
"n_match": 7,
"window_key": "M2"
},
"m1_reproduces_monthly1_prior": {
"pins_source": "the Monthly #1 pack monthly_metrics_2026-08.json: month.prior_window (July, window 2026-07-01 .. 2026-08-01, cutoff 2026-08-01T16:00Z) and month.research_to_date.at_prev_cutoff (D2 at 2026-08-01T16:00Z, slots < 2026-08-01); the first six are also the prior columns of the published Monthly #1 JSONs",
"note": "the M1 pack of this run has the window and the cutoff of the July prior window of Monthly #1 (computed there as window A at the same cutoff); each check is printed and stored as a fact. A mismatch is not fatal and nothing is adjusted to match.",
"applicable": true,
"d2_cutoff_used": "2026-08-01T16:00:00+00:00",
"d2_slot_bound": "2026-08-01T00:00:00+00:00",
"checks": {
"counters.mature_directional": {
"pin": 19541,
"got": 19541,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0,
"published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.counters.mature_directional (published: calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.prior_window.counters.mature_directional)"
},
"calibration.field.hit_rate": {
"pin": 0.4498,
"got": 0.4498,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 5e-05,
"published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.calibration.field.hit_rate (published: calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.prior_window_calibration.field.hit_rate)"
},
"calibration.field.gap_pp": {
"pin": 17.8,
"got": 17.8,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0.05,
"published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.calibration.field.gap_pp (published: calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.prior_window_calibration.field.gap_pp)"
},
"consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp": {
"pin": -10.6,
"got": -10.6,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0.05,
"published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp (published: consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.prior_window_consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp)"
},
"model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].model": {
"pin": "qwen-3.8-max",
"got": "qwen-3.8-max",
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0,
"published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.model_watch.leaderboard[0].model (published: model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.prior_window_model_watch.leaderboard[0].model)"
},
"model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].hit_rate": {
"pin": 0.4568,
"got": 0.4568,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 5e-05,
"published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.model_watch.leaderboard[0].hit_rate (published: model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.prior_window_model_watch.leaderboard[0].hit_rate)"
},
"research_to_date.canonical_value_at_cutoff": {
"pin": 19690,
"got": 19690,
"match": true,
"tolerance": 0,
"published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.research_to_date.at_prev_cutoff.D2_directional_only (not in the published JSONs)"
}
},
"all_match": true,
"n_checks": 7,
"n_match": 7,
"window_key": "M1"
},
"note": "controls are DESCRIPTIVE and never fatal; they are printed in the log as well",
"builder_prior_vs_published_monthly1": {
"applicable": false,
"reason": "not applicable: no prior quarter; the month cells are checked in builder_months_vs_published_monthly"
},
"builder_months_vs_published_monthly": {
"source": "months.M1..M3 of this pack (the frozen monthly packs) vs the published Monthly #1 / #2 JSONs (calibration-monthly-2026-08.json, calibration-monthly-2026-09.json, consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json, consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json, model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json, model-watch-monthly-2026-09.json)",
"rule": "M3 <-> Monthly #2 (its month); M2 <-> Monthly #1 (its month); M1 <-> the prior columns of Monthly #1",
"checks": [
{
"month": "M1",
"label": "Jul 15-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
"check": "lift_pp",
"pack": -10.6,
"published": -10.6,
"match": true,
"published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp"
},
{
"month": "M1",
"label": "Jul 15-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
"check": "herd_share_pct",
"pack": 97.4,
"published": 97.4,
"match": true,
"published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_consensus.loo_pooled agree_n / (agree_n + disagree_n)"
},
{
"month": "M1",
"label": "Jul 15-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
"check": "unanimity_6_hit",
"pack": 0.4591,
"published": null,
"match": null,
"published_path": "not published under the strict six-peer rule: consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_consensus.by_margin[unanimity] holds the wide rule (n=11531, hit 0.4562)",
"note": "the verdict cell (unanimity hit minus field hit) reads +0.9 on the pack's strict rule and +0.6 on the published wide rule: same sign",
"same_sign": true
},
{
"month": "M1",
"label": "Jul 15-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
"check": "field_hit",
"pack": 0.4498,
"published": 0.4498,
"match": true,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_calibration.field.hit_rate"
},
{
"month": "M1",
"label": "Jul 15-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
"check": "field_gap_pp",
"pack": 17.8,
"published": 17.8,
"match": true,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_calibration.field.gap_pp"
},
{
"month": "M1",
"label": "Jul 15-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
"check": "lowest_brier_model",
"pack": "grok-4.6",
"published": "grok-4.6",
"match": true,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_calibration.per_model (min brier)"
},
{
"month": "M1",
"label": "Jul 15-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
"check": "widest_gap_model",
"pack": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"published": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"match": true,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_calibration.per_model (max gap_pp)"
},
{
"month": "M1",
"label": "Jul 15-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
"check": "leader_model",
"pack": "qwen-3.8-max",
"published": "qwen-3.8-max",
"match": true,
"published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_model_watch.leaderboard (max hit_rate)"
},
{
"month": "M1",
"label": "Jul 15-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
"check": "most_readable_coin",
"pack": "ETH",
"published": "ETH",
"match": true,
"published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_model_watch.by_symbol (max hit_rate, current coins)"
},
{
"month": "M1",
"label": "Jul 15-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
"check": "mature_directional",
"pack": 19541,
"published": 19541,
"match": true,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json prior_window.counters.mature_directional"
},
{
"month": "M2",
"label": "Aug 1-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
"check": "lift_pp",
"pack": 1.9,
"published": 1.9,
"match": true,
"published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.pooled.lift_pp"
},
{
"month": "M2",
"label": "Aug 1-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
"check": "herd_share_pct",
"pack": 98.7,
"published": 98.7,
"match": true,
"published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.pooled agree.n / (agree.n + disagree.n)"
},
{
"month": "M2",
"label": "Aug 1-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
"check": "unanimity_6_hit",
"pack": 0.4511,
"published": 0.4511,
"match": true,
"published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.by_margin[margin=6].hit_rate"
},
{
"month": "M2",
"label": "Aug 1-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
"check": "field_hit",
"pack": 0.4633,
"published": 0.4633,
"match": true,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.calibration_main[Field].hit_rate"
},
{
"month": "M2",
"label": "Aug 1-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
"check": "field_gap_pp",
"pack": 16.3,
"published": 16.3,
"match": true,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.calibration_main[Field].gap_pp"
},
{
"month": "M2",
"label": "Aug 1-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
"check": "lowest_brier_model",
"pack": "claude-opus-5",
"published": "claude-opus-5",
"match": true,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.calibration_main (min brier)"
},
{
"month": "M2",
"label": "Aug 1-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
"check": "widest_gap_model",
"pack": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"published": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"match": true,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.calibration_main (max gap_pp)"
},
{
"month": "M2",
"label": "Aug 1-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
"check": "leader_model",
"pack": "claude-opus-5",
"published": "claude-opus-5",
"match": true,
"published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.leaderboard.rows (max hit_rate)"
},
{
"month": "M2",
"label": "Aug 1-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
"check": "most_readable_coin",
"pack": "BNB",
"published": "BNB",
"match": true,
"published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.ticker.rows (max hit_rate, current coins)"
},
{
"month": "M2",
"label": "Aug 1-31",
"published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
"check": "mature_directional",
"pack": 19383,
"published": 19383,
"match": true,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.counters.mature_directional"
},
{
"month": "M3",
"label": "Sep 1-30",
"published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
"check": "lift_pp",
"pack": -9.7,
"published": -9.7,
"match": true,
"published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json tables.pooled.lift_pp"
},
{
"month": "M3",
"label": "Sep 1-30",
"published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
"check": "herd_share_pct",
"pack": 99.2,
"published": 99.2,
"match": true,
"published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json tables.pooled agree.n / (agree.n + disagree.n)"
},
{
"month": "M3",
"label": "Sep 1-30",
"published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
"check": "unanimity_6_hit",
"pack": 0.4428,
"published": 0.4428,
"match": true,
"published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json tables.by_margin[margin=6].hit_rate"
},
{
"month": "M3",
"label": "Sep 1-30",
"published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
"check": "field_hit",
"pack": 0.455,
"published": 0.455,
"match": true,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-09.json tables.calibration_main[Field].hit_rate"
},
{
"month": "M3",
"label": "Sep 1-30",
"published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
"check": "field_gap_pp",
"pack": 17.0,
"published": 17.0,
"match": true,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-09.json tables.calibration_main[Field].gap_pp"
},
{
"month": "M3",
"label": "Sep 1-30",
"published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
"check": "lowest_brier_model",
"pack": "qwen-3.8-max",
"published": "qwen-3.8-max",
"match": true,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-09.json tables.calibration_main (min brier)"
},
{
"month": "M3",
"label": "Sep 1-30",
"published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
"check": "widest_gap_model",
"pack": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"published": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"match": true,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-09.json tables.calibration_main (max gap_pp)"
},
{
"month": "M3",
"label": "Sep 1-30",
"published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
"check": "leader_model",
"pack": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"published": "gemini-3.1-pro",
"match": true,
"published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-09.json tables.leaderboard.rows (max hit_rate)"
},
{
"month": "M3",
"label": "Sep 1-30",
"published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
"check": "most_readable_coin",
"pack": "XRP",
"published": "XRP",
"match": true,
"published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-09.json tables.ticker.rows (max hit_rate, current coins)"
},
{
"month": "M3",
"label": "Sep 1-30",
"published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
"check": "mature_directional",
"pack": 20682,
"published": 20682,
"match": true,
"published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-09.json tables.counters.mature_directional"
}
],
"n_checks": 29,
"n_match": 29,
"all_match": true,
"not_comparable": [
{
"month": "M1",
"check": "unanimity_6_hit",
"why": "not published under the strict six-peer rule: consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_consensus.by_margin[unanimity] holds the wide rule (n=11531, hit 0.4562)"
}
],
"note": "printed in the build log as facts; never a source of a printed number"
}
}
}