{
 "slug": "model-watch-2026-08-10",
 "series": "weekly",
 "series_label": "WEEKLY · MODEL WATCH",
 "issue": 2,
 "title": "Weekly Model Watch #2",
 "language": "en",
 "window_start": "2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00",
 "window_end": "2026-08-17T00:00:00+00:00",
 "window_text": "Aug 10-16, 2026 UTC",
 "cutoff": "2026-08-17T16:00:00+00:00",
 "generated_at": "2026-08-18T08:37:10.727025+00:00",
 "methodology": "v1.1 (2026-08-10)",
 "methodology_hash": "e66c7e8c864a2233",
 "source": "weekly_metrics_2026-08-10.json",
 "hit_rule": "direction: exit tp1/tp2 -> hit, sl -> miss, expiry -> sign of gross pnl",
 "bibtex_key": "mm_model_watch_2026w33",
 "research_question": "who led the week, which tickers were readable, who saw the turn first, and does a model agreeing with itself across timeframes/horizons make its call stronger?",
 "base_field_hit": {
  "n": 3670,
  "hit_rate": 0.4379
 },
 "market_state": {
  "panel": "market_state_6p2",
  "week": {
   "start": "2026-08-10",
   "end": "2026-08-17"
  },
  "prev_week": {
   "start": "2026-08-03",
   "end": "2026-08-10"
  },
  "generated_utc": "2026-08-19T06:26:44+00:00",
  "settings_module": "marketmania.settings",
  "current": {
   "per_symbol": {
    "BTC": {
     "net_pct": -3.08,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 4676300109.0
    },
    "ETH": {
     "net_pct": -1.81,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 1799344934.0
    },
    "SOL": {
     "net_pct": -2.16,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 545506557.0
    },
    "BNB": {
     "net_pct": 0.13,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 373245161.0
    },
    "XRP": {
     "net_pct": -3.52,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 357704108.0
    }
   },
   "btc_net_pct": -3.08,
   "realized_vol_ann_pct": 10.03,
   "vol_n_returns": 7,
   "avg_daily_range_pct": 1.63,
   "hivol_days": 0,
   "hivol_days_of": 7,
   "volume_top5_usd": 7752100869.0,
   "volume_symbols_counted": 5,
   "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.52,
   "corr_pairs": 10
  },
  "previous": {
   "per_symbol": {
    "BTC": {
     "net_pct": 2.09,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 4914474500.0
    },
    "ETH": {
     "net_pct": 1.34,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 2141079318.0
    },
    "SOL": {
     "net_pct": 3.57,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 680571970.0
    },
    "BNB": {
     "net_pct": 2.34,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 388062382.0
    },
    "XRP": {
     "net_pct": -5.24,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 382877404.0
    }
   },
   "btc_net_pct": 2.09,
   "realized_vol_ann_pct": 11.42,
   "vol_n_returns": 7,
   "avg_daily_range_pct": 1.64,
   "hivol_days": 0,
   "hivol_days_of": 7,
   "volume_top5_usd": 8507065574.0,
   "volume_symbols_counted": 5,
   "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.4,
   "corr_pairs": 10
  },
  "delta": {
   "btc_net_pct": -5.17,
   "realized_vol_ann_pct": -1.39,
   "avg_daily_range_pct": -0.01,
   "volume_top5_usd_pct": -8.9,
   "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.12
  },
  "_debug": {
   "models": {
    "Candle": "datalake.Candle",
    "MetricSnapshot": "datalake.MetricSnapshot",
    "EtfFlow": "datalake.EtfFlow"
   },
   "candle_fields": [
    "close",
    "exchange",
    "high",
    "id",
    "ingested_at",
    "low",
    "market_type",
    "open",
    "quote_volume",
    "source",
    "symbol",
    "timeframe",
    "ts_open",
    "volume"
   ],
   "market_types": [
    "commodity",
    "crypto_futures",
    "crypto_spot",
    "forex",
    "stock"
   ],
   "timeframes": [
    "1M",
    "1d",
    "1h",
    "1w",
    "4h"
   ],
   "picked": {
    "market_type": "crypto_spot",
    "timeframe": "1d",
    "ohlc": [
     "open",
     "high",
     "low",
     "close"
    ],
    "qv": "quote_volume",
    "ts": "ts_open"
   },
   "symbol_map": {
    "BTC": "BTCUSDT",
    "ETH": "ETHUSDT",
    "SOL": "SOLUSDT",
    "BNB": "BNBUSDT",
    "XRP": "XRPUSDT"
   },
   "funding_trace": "Traceback (most recent call last):\n  File \"/tmp/w73_market_state.py\", line 202, in <module>\n    out[\"current\"][\"funding_btc\"] = funding_block(W0, W1)\n                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~^^^^^^^^\n  File \"/tmp/w73_market_state.py\", line 190, in funding_block\n    raise RuntimeError(\"funding field mapping failed: \" + json.dumps(dbg))\nRuntimeError: funding field mapping failed: {\"fields\": [\"exchange\", \"id\", \"market_type\", \"metric\", \"raw\", \"symbol\", \"ts\", \"value_num\"], \"ts\": \"ts\", \"val\": null, \"sym\": \"symbol\", \"symbols_seen\": [\"1000BONKUSDT\", \"1000FLOKIUSDT\", \"1000PEPEUSDT\", \"1000SHIBUSDT\", \"1INCHUSDT\", \"AAVEUSDT\", \"ADAUSDT\", \"ALGOUSDT\", \"ANKRUSDT\", \"APEUSDT\", \"APTUSDT\", \"ARBUSDT\", \"ATOMUSDT\", \"AVAXUSDT\", \"AXSUSDT\", \"BATUSDT\", \"BCHUSDT\", \"BLURUSDT\", \"BNBUSDT\", \"BONKUSDT\", \"BTCUSDT\", \"CAKEUSDT\", \"CELOUSDT\", \"CFXUSDT\", \"CHZUSDT\", \"COMPUSDT\", \"CRVUSDT\", \"DASHUSDT\", \"DOGEUSDT\", \"DOTUSDT\"], \"symbol_used\": \"BTCUSDT\"}\n",
   "etf_trace": "Traceback (most recent call last):\n  File \"/tmp/w73_market_state.py\", line 246, in <module>\n    out[\"current\"][\"etf_flow\"] = etf_block(W0, W1)\n                                 ~~~~~~~~~^^^^^^^^\n  File \"/tmp/w73_market_state.py\", line 217, in etf_block\n    raise RuntimeError(\"etf field mapping failed: \" + json.dumps(dbg))\nRuntimeError: etf field mapping failed: {\"fields\": {\"id\": \"BigAutoField\", \"asset\": \"CharField\", \"fund\": \"CharField\", \"flow_date\": \"DateField\", \"flow_musd\": \"DecimalField\", \"source\": \"CharField\", \"raw\": \"JSONField\", \"first_seen\": \"DateTimeField\", \"last_seen\": \"DateTimeField\"}, \"date\": \"flow_date\", \"asset\": \"asset\", \"val\": null}\n"
  },
  "_errors": [
   "funding: RuntimeError('funding field mapping failed: {\"fields\": [\"exchange\", \"id\", \"market_type\", \"metric\", \"raw\", \"symbol\", \"ts\", \"value_num\"], \"ts\": \"ts\", \"val\": null, \"sym\": \"symbol\", \"symbols_seen\": [\"1000BONKUSDT\", \"1000FLOKIUSDT\", \"1000PEPEUSDT\", \"1000SHIBUSDT\", \"1INCHUSDT\", \"AAVEUSDT\", \"ADAUSDT\", \"ALGOUSDT\", \"ANKRUSDT\", \"APEUSDT\", \"APTUSDT\", \"ARBUSDT\", \"ATOMUSDT\", \"AVAXUSDT\", \"AXSUSDT\", \"BATUSDT\", \"BCHUSDT\", \"BLURUSDT\", \"BNBUSDT\", \"BONKUSDT\", \"BTCUSDT\", \"CAKEUSDT\", \"CELOUSDT\", \"CFXUSDT\", \"CHZUSDT\", \"COMPUSDT\", \"CRVUSDT\", \"DASHUSDT\", \"DOGEUSDT\", \"DOTUSDT\"], \"symbol_used\": \"BTCUSDT\"}')",
   "etf: RuntimeError('etf field mapping failed: {\"fields\": {\"id\": \"BigAutoField\", \"asset\": \"CharField\", \"fund\": \"CharField\", \"flow_date\": \"DateField\", \"flow_musd\": \"DecimalField\", \"source\": \"CharField\", \"raw\": \"JSONField\", \"first_seen\": \"DateTimeField\", \"last_seen\": \"DateTimeField\"}, \"date\": \"flow_date\", \"asset\": \"asset\", \"val\": null}')"
  ]
 },
 "key_finding": {
  "label": "KEY FINDING · OBSERVATION (one weekly window)",
  "text": "The reversal blind spot repeated: zero of 7 models caught ETH's -2.65% Monday turn -- two issues, two qualifying reversals, zero callers.",
  "evidence_level": "observation"
 },
 "tables": {
  "leaderboard": {
   "rows": [
    {
     "model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "n": 555,
     "hit_rate": 0.4703,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4291,
      0.5119
     ],
     "coverage": 0.4173,
     "insufficient": false
    },
    {
     "model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "n": 636,
     "hit_rate": 0.4418,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4037,
      0.4807
     ],
     "coverage": 0.4782,
     "insufficient": false
    },
    {
     "model": "qwen-3.8-max",
     "n": 572,
     "hit_rate": 0.4406,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4004,
      0.4815
     ],
     "coverage": 0.4304,
     "insufficient": false
    },
    {
     "model": "grok-4.5",
     "n": 620,
     "hit_rate": 0.4403,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4017,
      0.4796
     ],
     "coverage": 0.4662,
     "insufficient": false
    },
    {
     "model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "n": 454,
     "hit_rate": 0.4251,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.3805,
      0.471
     ],
     "coverage": 0.3419,
     "insufficient": false
    },
    {
     "model": "claude-fable-5",
     "n": 472,
     "hit_rate": 0.4174,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.3737,
      0.4624
     ],
     "coverage": 0.3549,
     "insufficient": false
    },
    {
     "model": "claude-opus-5",
     "n": 361,
     "hit_rate": 0.4155,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.3658,
      0.467
     ],
     "coverage": 0.2714,
     "insufficient": false
    }
   ],
   "title_awarded": false,
   "title_rule": ">=5pp gap AND non-overlapping 95% CI, N>=10",
   "movement_vs_prior_week": [
    {
     "model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "hit_rate_issue1": 0.43700000000000006,
     "hit_rate_issue2": 0.4703,
     "delta_pp": 3.3,
     "rank_issue1": 2,
     "rank_issue2": 1
    },
    {
     "model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "hit_rate_issue1": 0.43,
     "hit_rate_issue2": 0.4418,
     "delta_pp": 1.2,
     "rank_issue1": 3,
     "rank_issue2": 2
    },
    {
     "model": "qwen-3.8-max",
     "hit_rate_issue1": 0.441,
     "hit_rate_issue2": 0.4406,
     "delta_pp": -0.0,
     "rank_issue1": 1,
     "rank_issue2": 3
    },
    {
     "model": "grok-4.5",
     "hit_rate_issue1": 0.42200000000000004,
     "hit_rate_issue2": 0.4403,
     "delta_pp": 1.8,
     "rank_issue1": 4,
     "rank_issue2": 4
    },
    {
     "model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "hit_rate_issue1": 0.41600000000000004,
     "hit_rate_issue2": 0.4251,
     "delta_pp": 0.9,
     "rank_issue1": 5,
     "rank_issue2": 5
    },
    {
     "model": "claude-fable-5",
     "hit_rate_issue1": 0.414,
     "hit_rate_issue2": 0.4174,
     "delta_pp": 0.3,
     "rank_issue1": 6,
     "rank_issue2": 6
    },
    {
     "model": "claude-opus-5",
     "hit_rate_issue1": 0.409,
     "hit_rate_issue2": 0.4155,
     "delta_pp": 0.6,
     "rank_issue1": 7,
     "rank_issue2": 7
    }
   ],
   "top2_gap_pp": 2.8,
   "note": "No weekly title awarded (second issue running): 2.8pp gap, overlapping 95% CIs. gemini-3.1-pro leads descriptively."
  },
  "ticker": {
   "rows": [
    {
     "symbol": "BNB",
     "n": 816,
     "hit_rate": 0.4926,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4585,
      0.5269
     ]
    },
    {
     "symbol": "XRP",
     "n": 824,
     "hit_rate": 0.4854,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4515,
      0.5196
     ]
    },
    {
     "symbol": "BTC",
     "n": 727,
     "hit_rate": 0.4402,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4045,
      0.4765
     ]
    },
    {
     "symbol": "SOL",
     "n": 659,
     "hit_rate": 0.3885,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.352,
      0.4262
     ]
    },
    {
     "symbol": "ETH",
     "n": 644,
     "hit_rate": 0.3556,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.3196,
      0.3933
     ]
    }
   ],
   "best": "BNB",
   "hardest": "ETH",
   "best_vs_hardest_ci_overlap": false,
   "adjacent_pairs_all_overlap": true
  },
  "pairs_top": [
   {
    "model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "symbol": "BNB",
    "n": 122,
    "hit_rate": 0.5574
   },
   {
    "model": "qwen-3.8-max",
    "symbol": "BNB",
    "n": 124,
    "hit_rate": 0.5081
   },
   {
    "model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "symbol": "XRP",
    "n": 133,
    "hit_rate": 0.5038
   },
   {
    "model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "symbol": "BNB",
    "n": 145,
    "hit_rate": 0.4966
   },
   {
    "model": "qwen-3.8-max",
    "symbol": "XRP",
    "n": 127,
    "hit_rate": 0.4961
   },
   {
    "model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "symbol": "XRP",
    "n": 97,
    "hit_rate": 0.4948
   }
  ],
  "pairs_worst": [
   {
    "model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "symbol": "SOL",
    "n": 78,
    "hit_rate": 0.359
   },
   {
    "model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "symbol": "ETH",
    "n": 113,
    "hit_rate": 0.354
   },
   {
    "model": "claude-opus-5",
    "symbol": "ETH",
    "n": 65,
    "hit_rate": 0.3538
   },
   {
    "model": "claude-fable-5",
    "symbol": "ETH",
    "n": 84,
    "hit_rate": 0.3333
   },
   {
    "model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "symbol": "ETH",
    "n": 87,
    "hit_rate": 0.2989
   }
  ],
  "reversal_events": {
   "definition": "4h grid, trend=sign of prior 24h, counter-move >=2.0% (BTC/ETH) sustained 8h; caller: directional hit, FH 4h/1d, slot in [T-12h, T+FH]",
   "events": [
    {
     "symbol": "ETH",
     "t": "2026-08-10T08:00:00+00:00",
     "new_side": "short",
     "move_8h_pct": -2.65,
     "n_callers": 0,
     "first_caller": null,
     "caller_models": []
    }
   ],
   "scope_v1": "BTC/ETH only; expansion planned after 2-3 issues."
  },
  "cross_tf": {
   "fh_4h_tf_4h_vs_1h": {
    "agree": {
     "n": 310,
     "hit_rate": 0.4065,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.3532,
      0.462
     ],
     "by_regime": {
      "trend": {
       "n": 46,
       "hit_rate": 0.5435
      },
      "flat": {
       "n": 264,
       "hit_rate": 0.3826
      }
     }
    },
    "disagree": {
     "n": 20,
     "hit_rate": 0.35,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.1812,
      0.5671
     ],
     "by_regime": {
      "trend": {
       "n": 6,
       "hit_rate": 0.1667
      },
      "flat": {
       "n": 14,
       "hit_rate": 0.4286
      }
     }
    },
    "mixed_pairs": 247,
    "base": {
     "n": 577,
     "hit_rate": 0.4125
    },
    "lift_pp": -0.6
   },
   "fh_1d_tf_1d_vs_4h": {
    "agree": {
     "n": 56,
     "hit_rate": 0.1786,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.1,
      0.2984
     ],
     "by_regime": {
      "trend": {
       "n": 13,
       "hit_rate": 0.1538
      },
      "flat": {
       "n": 43,
       "hit_rate": 0.186
      }
     }
    },
    "disagree": {
     "n": 0,
     "hit_rate": null,
     "wilson_95": [
      null,
      null
     ],
     "by_regime": {
      "trend": {
       "n": 0,
       "hit_rate": null
      },
      "flat": {
       "n": 0,
       "hit_rate": null
      }
     }
    },
    "mixed_pairs": 43,
    "base": {
     "n": 99,
     "hit_rate": 0.3636
    },
    "lift_pp": -18.5
   }
  },
  "cross_fh": {
   "fh_4h_confirmed_by_1h": {
    "agree": {
     "n": 299,
     "hit_rate": 0.4147,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.3603,
      0.4713
     ],
     "by_regime": {
      "trend": {
       "n": 45,
       "hit_rate": 0.4889
      },
      "flat": {
       "n": 254,
       "hit_rate": 0.4016
      }
     }
    },
    "disagree": {
     "n": 31,
     "hit_rate": 0.2903,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.161,
      0.4659
     ],
     "by_regime": {
      "trend": {
       "n": 14,
       "hit_rate": 0.2143
      },
      "flat": {
       "n": 17,
       "hit_rate": 0.3529
      }
     }
    },
    "mixed_pairs": 246,
    "base": {
     "n": 577,
     "hit_rate": 0.4125
    },
    "lift_pp": 0.2
   },
   "fh_1d_confirmed_by_4h": {
    "agree": {
     "n": 54,
     "hit_rate": 0.1852,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.1038,
      0.3084
     ],
     "by_regime": {
      "trend": {
       "n": 13,
       "hit_rate": 0.0
      },
      "flat": {
       "n": 41,
       "hit_rate": 0.2439
      }
     }
    },
    "disagree": {
     "n": 2,
     "hit_rate": 1.0,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.3424,
      1.0
     ],
     "by_regime": {
      "trend": {
       "n": 1,
       "hit_rate": 1.0
      },
      "flat": {
       "n": 1,
       "hit_rate": 1.0
      }
     }
    },
    "mixed_pairs": 43,
    "base": {
     "n": 99,
     "hit_rate": 0.3636
    },
    "lift_pp": -17.8
   }
  },
  "regime_days": {
   "2026-08-10": {
    "move_pct": -1.63,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-11": {
    "move_pct": -0.56,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-12": {
    "move_pct": -0.02,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-13": {
    "move_pct": -0.25,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-14": {
    "move_pct": -0.67,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-15": {
    "move_pct": 0.07,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-16": {
    "move_pct": -0.35,
    "regime": "flat"
   }
  },
  "side_mix": [
   {
    "model": "claude-fable-5",
    "n": 1330,
    "long": 0.1955,
    "short": 0.1594,
    "sideways": 0.6451,
    "ls_ratio": 1.23
   },
   {
    "model": "claude-opus-5",
    "n": 1330,
    "long": 0.1451,
    "short": 0.1263,
    "sideways": 0.7286,
    "ls_ratio": 1.15
   },
   {
    "model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "n": 1328,
    "long": 0.1047,
    "short": 0.2372,
    "sideways": 0.6581,
    "ls_ratio": 0.44
   },
   {
    "model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "n": 1330,
    "long": 0.1624,
    "short": 0.2549,
    "sideways": 0.5827,
    "ls_ratio": 0.64
   },
   {
    "model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "n": 1330,
    "long": 0.1474,
    "short": 0.3308,
    "sideways": 0.5218,
    "ls_ratio": 0.45
   },
   {
    "model": "grok-4.5",
    "n": 1330,
    "long": 0.1586,
    "short": 0.3075,
    "sideways": 0.5338,
    "ls_ratio": 0.52
   },
   {
    "model": "qwen-3.8-max",
    "n": 1329,
    "long": 0.1738,
    "short": 0.2566,
    "sideways": 0.5696,
    "ls_ratio": 0.68
   }
  ],
  "long_short_ratio_field": {
   "value": 0.73,
   "method": "average of each model's own long:short ratio (not pooled raw counts)"
  },
  "consensus_skew": {
   "cells_ge5_same_side": 404,
   "n_mature": 2486,
   "hit_rate": 0.4175
  },
  "fail_of_week": {
   "model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
   "symbol": "ETH",
   "side": "short",
   "confidence": 82,
   "slot": "2026-08-10T16:01:00+00:00",
   "fh": "4h",
   "tf": "1h",
   "exit_reason": "expiry",
   "pnl_net_usd": -0.36,
   "cross_reference": "ETH's only qualifying reversal turned short at 08:00 the same day; this conf-82 short entered at 16:01, after the qualifying 8-hour counter-move had completed, and expired without reaching TP. ETH was also the week's hardest ticker; 4 of the 5 worst pairs are ETH pairings."
  },
  "counters": {
   "forecasts_total": 9380,
   "ok_in_gate": 9307,
   "invalid": 4,
   "out_of_gate_1w": 69,
   "mature": 9307,
   "mature_directional": 3670,
   "mature_sideways": 5637,
   "pending_next_issue": 0,
   "late_closes": 0
  },
  "uptime": [
   {
    "fh": "1h",
    "tf": "1h",
    "slots_seen": 168,
    "slots_expected": 168
   },
   {
    "fh": "4h",
    "tf": "4h",
    "slots_seen": 42,
    "slots_expected": 42
   },
   {
    "fh": "4h",
    "tf": "1h",
    "slots_seen": 42,
    "slots_expected": 42
   },
   {
    "fh": "1d",
    "tf": "1d",
    "slots_seen": 7,
    "slots_expected": 7
   },
   {
    "fh": "1d",
    "tf": "4h",
    "slots_seen": 7,
    "slots_expected": 7
   }
  ],
  "ok_rate_by_model": {
   "qwen-3.8-max": 0.9985,
   "grok-4.5": 1.0,
   "claude-fable-5": 1.0,
   "claude-opus-5": 1.0,
   "gemini-3.1-pro": 1.0,
   "deepseek-v4-pro": 0.9985,
   "gpt-5.6-sol": 1.0
  },
  "calibration_bridge": {
   "best_calibrated_model": "qwen-3.8-max",
   "brier": 0.2688,
   "note": "Best Brier is only 3rd by hit-rate this issue; the hit-rate leader gemini-3.1-pro ranks 5th of 7 by Brier (0.2848) with a +18.4pp gap. Full analysis in Weekly Calibration #2."
  }
 },
 "key_findings": [
  "OBSERVATION -- No weekly title again. gemini-3.1-pro leads descriptively at 47.0% [42.9%, 51.2%] after the field's biggest jump (+3.3pp w/w), but the gap to #2 (gpt-5.6-sol, 44.2%) is 2.8pp with overlapping CIs -- the title rule (>=5pp gap AND non-overlapping 95% CI) was not met. Six of seven models improved week-over-week; last week's leader qwen-3.8-max held flat at 44.1% and slipped 1st -> 3rd.",
  "Ticker readability reshuffled hard. BNB is the week's most readable coin (49.3%, n=816) and last week's best, SOL, collapsed 48.2% -> 38.9% -- a -9.3pp swing to 4th of 5. ETH is the hardest for the second week running (35.6%). Pair of the week: gemini-3.1-pro x BNB 55.7% (n=122); worst: deepseek-v4-pro x ETH 29.9% (n=87).",
  "The reversal blind spot repeated. The week's only qualifying reversal -- ETH turning short at 08:00 UTC on Monday Aug 10, an 8-hour move of -2.65% -- drew zero callers from all 7 models. Two issues, two reversals (both on the window's Monday), first caller: NOBODY, twice.",
  "Self-agreement still added nothing pooled -- but the first regime split landed. Cross-TF/FH lifts ran -18.5 to +0.2pp, and 1d confirmation was a disaster (17.9-18.5% hit). On the window's single trend day, 4h TF-agreement hit 54.3% vs 38.3% on the six flat days (n=46 vs 264) -- the regime control's first non-degenerate read; a hint, not a result."
 ],
 "practical_implications": [
  "Do not read this week's leaderboard as a skill ranking: no title was awarded, the top CIs overlap, and gemini-3.1-pro's +3.3pp jump is one week of movement in a field where last week's leader just went flat.",
  "Treat per-ticker readability as weekly weather. The best coin flipped (SOL -> BNB, a -9.3pp swing for SOL); the only repeat so far is ETH-hardest, two weeks running -- and the field missed both Monday reversals outright, which still points at turns as the general weak spot.",
  "Do not use within-model cross-TF/FH agreement as a confidence booster: pooled lifts ran -18.5 to +0.2pp, and 1d confirmation was the week's worst cell family (~18% hit). The one trend day's 54.3% agree-hit is the thing to watch at monthly n, not a signal to act on."
 ],
 "limitations": [
  "Single week (Aug 10-16, 2026 UTC). Every finding is descriptive for this window only; no claim is made about next week or any model's underlying skill.",
  "The regime control rests on ONE trend day (Mon Aug 10, n=46/45 agree calls); the other six days were flat. The split is reported because it is the series' first non-degenerate one, not because one day can establish anything.",
  "Observations inside one window are not independent: the same models watch overlapping symbol/FH/TF cells hour after hour; agree/disagree calls made close in time are correlated, not i.i.d. draws.",
  "95% Wilson CIs shown throughout are descriptive, not inferential -- read them as a range, not a formal coverage guarantee.",
  "The reversal detector remains v1 and BTC/ETH-only, on price series reconstructed from trade entry prices (median per symbol-slot), not an independent tick feed. Two events in two issues cannot characterize detector performance either way.",
  "Cross-TF and cross-FH disagreement cells are tiny again (n=0, 2, 20, 31) -- cells below N=10 are marked insufficient and are never used to rank models.",
  "Week-over-week movement begins this issue on two data points; rank shuffles at these CI widths are expected noise until several issues accumulate."
 ],
 "living_series_note": "Issue #2. Weekly Model Watch is a living series; the movement column and the regime control went live this issue. Issue #1's open questions -- does the reversal blind spot repeat, and does cross-TF agreement stay flat-to-negative? -- both closed 'yes': a second Monday reversal drew zero callers, and pooled self-agreement lifts stayed at -18.5 to +0.2pp (with the first trend-day hint of regime dependence). Engine 1.1 powers the sandbox since Aug 18 (after this window closed); no cross-engine PnL comparisons are claimed.",
 "testing_next": [
  "Next issue: a third Monday reversal would make the blind spot a pattern; does SOL's readability bounce back or was issue #1 the outlier; does the trend-day agreement premium reappear?",
  "Monthly test (Sep 2): cross-TF/FH lifts with regime control across mixed weeks (trend vs. flat), block bootstrap."
 ],
 "related_research": [
  {
   "title": "Consensus Watch #2",
   "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/consensus-watch-2026-08-10.pdf"
  },
  {
   "title": "Weekly Calibration #2",
   "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/weekly-calibration-2026-08-10.pdf"
  },
  {
   "title": "Config Watch #2",
   "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-2026-08-12.pdf"
  },
  {
   "title": "Weekly Model Watch #1",
   "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/model-watch-2026-08-03.pdf"
  }
 ],
 "related_research_note": "The three weekly reports publish together as one issue each week; Config Watch follows on its own cycle. Direct links are the posting rule from this wave on.",
 "research_to_date": {
  "this_report": {
   "scored_observations": 3670
  },
  "platform": {
   "as_of_cutoff": "2026-08-17",
   "resolved_forecasts": 23458,
   "resolved_forecasts_since": "2026-07-11",
   "models_tracked": 9,
   "models_tracked_detail": "7 current frontier + 2 archived legacy generations",
   "assets": 5,
   "forecast_horizons": 5,
   "cadence": "hourly",
   "published_research_reports": 9
  },
  "source": "platform_counters_2026-08-17"
 },
 "citation": {
  "bibtex_key": "mm_model_watch_2026w33",
  "title": "Weekly Model Watch #2: weekly leaderboard, ticker/pair reads and cross-confirmation, Aug 10-16 2026",
  "author": "MarketMania Research",
  "year": 2026,
  "month": "August",
  "day": 19,
  "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/model-watch-2026-08-10.pdf"
 }
}