{
 "slug": "consensus-watch-quarterly-2026-q3",
 "series": "quarterly",
 "series_label": "QUARTERLY · CONSENSUS WATCH",
 "issue": 1,
 "title": "Quarterly Consensus Watch #1",
 "language": "en",
 "window_start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00",
 "window_end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00",
 "window_text": "Jul 15-Sep 30, 2026 UTC",
 "cutoff": "2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00",
 "generated_at": "2026-10-07T15:39:15+00:00",
 "methodology": "v1.1 (2026-08-10)",
 "methodology_hash": "e66c7e8c864a2233",
 "source": "quarterly_metrics_2026-q3.json",
 "research_question": "if a model's forecast matches the consensus of the other models, is the forecast more reliable?",
 "method": "leave-one-out strict majority, >=3 directional peers",
 "base_field_hit": {
  "n": 59606,
  "hit_rate": 0.456
 },
 "market_state": {
  "panel": "market_state_6p2",
  "month": {
   "start": "2026-07-15",
   "end": "2026-10-01",
   "days": 78
  },
  "prev_month_partial": {
   "start": null,
   "end": null,
   "days": null,
   "partial": false,
   "applicable": false,
   "reason": "no previous quarter: there are no candles before 2026-07-15 (the platform start)"
  },
  "current": {
   "btc_net_pct": 28.56,
   "realized_vol_ann_pct": 38.89,
   "volume_top5_usd_bn": 173.9436,
   "volume_top5_mom_pct": null,
   "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.77
  },
  "previous_partial_month": {
   "btc_net_pct": null,
   "realized_vol_ann_pct": null,
   "volume_top5_usd_bn": null,
   "avg_pairwise_corr": null
  },
  "snapshot_line": "BTC net +28.56% (prior n/a) - ann vol 38.9% (was n/a) - TOP5 volume $173.94B, n/a q/q - pairwise corr 0.77 (was n/a)",
  "exchange": "binance",
  "audit_filter_applied": true,
  "source": "single-exchange (binance) daily candle recompute, market_state_2026-q3.json; block quarter (Jul 15-Sep 30); no prior-quarter block (block_windows.prev_quarter.applicable = false)",
  "audit_note": "Market-state row is computed on a single-exchange (binance) daily candle series, as in the weekly series after the audit that found the raw table mixes two exchanges. The quarter block covers 78 days (Jul 15-Sep 30) of the 92-day calendar quarter, and there is no prior-quarter block, so the TOP5 volume figure is a 78-day sum with no quarter-over-quarter change.",
  "weeks": {
   "M1": {
    "btc_net_pct": -3.31,
    "realized_vol_ann_pct": 27.33,
    "regime": "calm"
   },
   "M2": {
    "btc_net_pct": 24.95,
    "realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.53,
    "regime": "volatile"
   },
   "M3": {
    "btc_net_pct": 6.42,
    "realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.17,
    "regime": "volatile"
   }
  },
  "volatility_rule": "volatile if realized_vol_ann_pct >= median(M1..M3) else calm (the median of three values is the middle one)",
  "median_realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.17,
  "delta_month_vs_prev_partial": {
   "applicable": false,
   "note": "not applicable: no previous quarter: there are no candles before 2026-07-15 (the platform start)"
  },
  "controls": {
   "M3_matches_published_month": {
    "pins_source": "market_state_2026-09.json -> 'month' (the published Monthly #2 block, Sep 1-30)",
    "block": "M3",
    "published": {
     "btc_net_pct": 6.42,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.17,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 80.0142,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.78
    },
    "got": {
     "btc_net_pct": 6.42,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.17,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 80.0142,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.78
    },
    "match": {
     "btc_net_pct": true,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": true,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": true,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": true
    },
    "tolerance": {
     "btc_net_pct": 0.05,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 0.5,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 0.05,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.02
    },
    "all_match": true
   },
   "M2_matches_published_prev_month": {
    "pins_source": "market_state_2026-09.json -> 'prev_month' (Monthly #2, Aug 1-31); the same four values are market_state_2026-08.json -> 'month' (Monthly #1)",
    "block": "M2",
    "published": {
     "btc_net_pct": 24.95,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.53,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 65.9696,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.79
    },
    "got": {
     "btc_net_pct": 24.95,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.53,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 65.9696,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.79
    },
    "match": {
     "btc_net_pct": true,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": true,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": true,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": true
    },
    "tolerance": {
     "btc_net_pct": 0.05,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 0.5,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 0.05,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.02
    },
    "all_match": true
   },
   "M1_matches_published_prev_month_partial": {
    "pins_source": "market_state_2026-08.json -> 'prev_month_partial' (Monthly #1, Jul 15-31)",
    "block": "M1",
    "published": {
     "btc_net_pct": -3.31,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 27.33,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 27.9598,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.79
    },
    "got": {
     "btc_net_pct": -3.31,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 27.33,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 27.9598,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.79
    },
    "match": {
     "btc_net_pct": true,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": true,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": true,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": true
    },
    "tolerance": {
     "btc_net_pct": 0.05,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 0.5,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 0.05,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.02
    },
    "all_match": true
   },
   "note": "M3, M2 and M1 of this run are exactly the blocks the Monthly #2 and Monthly #1 market panels computed (same windows, same audit filter), so all three must reproduce. Non-fatal: a MISMATCH means the exchange filter or the symbol set moved -- send the log, do not publish the row."
  },
  "regime_days": {
   "2026-07-01": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-02": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-03": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-04": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-05": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-06": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-07": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-08": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-09": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-10": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-11": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-12": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-13": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-14": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-15": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-16": {
    "move_pct": -1.18,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-17": {
    "move_pct": 0.25,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-18": {
    "move_pct": 1.26,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-19": {
    "move_pct": 0.18,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-20": {
    "move_pct": 0.85,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-21": {
    "move_pct": 1.81,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-07-22": {
    "move_pct": -0.67,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-23": {
    "move_pct": -1.89,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-07-24": {
    "move_pct": -1.24,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-25": {
    "move_pct": 0.53,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-26": {
    "move_pct": 1.14,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-27": {
    "move_pct": -2.37,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-07-28": {
    "move_pct": 0.61,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-29": {
    "move_pct": -0.36,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-30": {
    "move_pct": 1.52,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-07-31": {
    "move_pct": -2.82,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-01": {
    "move_pct": -0.13,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-02": {
    "move_pct": 0.81,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-03": {
    "move_pct": 0.09,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-04": {
    "move_pct": 0.93,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-05": {
    "move_pct": 0.98,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-06": {
    "move_pct": -0.57,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-07": {
    "move_pct": 0.88,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-08": {
    "move_pct": 0.16,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-09": {
    "move_pct": 0.09,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-10": {
    "move_pct": -1.63,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-11": {
    "move_pct": -0.56,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-12": {
    "move_pct": -0.02,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-13": {
    "move_pct": -0.25,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-14": {
    "move_pct": -0.67,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-15": {
    "move_pct": 0.07,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-16": {
    "move_pct": -0.35,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-17": {
    "move_pct": 2.55,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-18": {
    "move_pct": 0.21,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-19": {
    "move_pct": 7.82,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-20": {
    "move_pct": 5.07,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-21": {
    "move_pct": 7.26,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-22": {
    "move_pct": -1.67,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-23": {
    "move_pct": 0.69,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-24": {
    "move_pct": 1.61,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-25": {
    "move_pct": -0.58,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-26": {
    "move_pct": 0.63,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-27": {
    "move_pct": 1.53,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-28": {
    "move_pct": -2.91,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-29": {
    "move_pct": 0.48,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-30": {
    "move_pct": -0.7,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-31": {
    "move_pct": 1.19,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-01": {
    "move_pct": -1.5,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-02": {
    "move_pct": -0.06,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-03": {
    "move_pct": 4.98,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-04": {
    "move_pct": -1.97,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-05": {
    "move_pct": 0.24,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-06": {
    "move_pct": 0.58,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-07": {
    "move_pct": -1.52,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-08": {
    "move_pct": -0.72,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-09": {
    "move_pct": -0.25,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-10": {
    "move_pct": -2.14,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-11": {
    "move_pct": 0.85,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-12": {
    "move_pct": 0.0,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-13": {
    "move_pct": -0.57,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-14": {
    "move_pct": 1.79,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-15": {
    "move_pct": -3.35,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-16": {
    "move_pct": 0.86,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-17": {
    "move_pct": 0.21,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-18": {
    "move_pct": 5.82,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-19": {
    "move_pct": 0.46,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-20": {
    "move_pct": 0.13,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-21": {
    "move_pct": 6.39,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-22": {
    "move_pct": -0.4,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-23": {
    "move_pct": -2.04,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-24": {
    "move_pct": 0.02,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-25": {
    "move_pct": -0.46,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-26": {
    "move_pct": 0.36,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-27": {
    "move_pct": 0.2,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-28": {
    "move_pct": -1.19,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-29": {
    "move_pct": 0.22,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-30": {
    "move_pct": -0.22,
    "regime": "flat"
   }
  },
  "alive_slice_context": {
   "abs_move_1d_pct": {
    "A": null,
    "B": 1.806
   },
   "btc_realized_vol_ann_pct_hourly": {
    "A": null,
    "B": 35.11
   }
  }
 },
 "tables": {
  "pooled": {
   "agree": {
    "n": 49923,
    "hit_rate": 0.4508,
    "wilson_95": [
     0.4464,
     0.4551
    ]
   },
   "disagree": {
    "n": 784,
    "hit_rate": 0.5204,
    "wilson_95": [
     0.4854,
     0.5552
    ]
   },
   "lift_pp": -7.0,
   "thin_or_tied": 8899,
   "by_margin": {
    "2": {
     "n": 362,
     "hit_rate": 0.5083
    },
    "3": {
     "n": 5285,
     "hit_rate": 0.4492
    },
    "4": {
     "n": 7424,
     "hit_rate": 0.4609
    },
    "5": {
     "n": 12082,
     "hit_rate": 0.4434
    },
    "6": {
     "n": 24770,
     "hit_rate": 0.4508
    }
   },
   "total_scoreable": 50707,
   "caveat": "The disagree bucket is n=784 over the whole quarter; the two Wilson intervals do not overlap. The prior window reads n/a because this is the first quarterly issue: there is no prior quarter (platform data begin Jul 15, 2026). By month (Jul 15-31 / Aug 1-31 / Sep 1-30): agree 44.6% / 45.5% / 45.1%, disagree 55.3% / 43.6% / 54.7%, lift -10.6pp / +1.9pp / -9.7pp, on n=436 / 211 / 137 disagreeing calls. These are dependent observations pooled across the whole quarter: one calm month and two volatile months."
  },
  "by_cell": [
   {
    "agree": {
     "n": 28469,
     "hit_rate": 0.4618,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.456,
      0.4676
     ]
    },
    "disagree": {
     "n": 510,
     "hit_rate": 0.5412,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4978,
      0.584
     ]
    },
    "lift_pp": -7.9,
    "thin_or_tied": 5163,
    "by_margin": {
     "2": {
      "n": 201,
      "hit_rate": 0.4975
     },
     "3": {
      "n": 3178,
      "hit_rate": 0.4468
     },
     "4": {
      "n": 4263,
      "hit_rate": 0.4614
     },
     "5": {
      "n": 6592,
      "hit_rate": 0.4436
     },
     "6": {
      "n": 14235,
      "hit_rate": 0.4733
     }
    },
    "n_subjects": 34142,
    "cell": "fh_1h_tf_1h",
    "fh": "1h",
    "tf": "1h"
   },
   {
    "agree": {
     "n": 2706,
     "hit_rate": 0.4579,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4392,
      0.4767
     ]
    },
    "disagree": {
     "n": 40,
     "hit_rate": 0.425,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.2851,
      0.5781
     ]
    },
    "lift_pp": 3.3,
    "thin_or_tied": 592,
    "by_margin": {
     "2": {
      "n": 33,
      "hit_rate": 0.5152
     },
     "3": {
      "n": 344,
      "hit_rate": 0.4738
     },
     "4": {
      "n": 675,
      "hit_rate": 0.4178
     },
     "5": {
      "n": 1038,
      "hit_rate": 0.4518
     },
     "6": {
      "n": 616,
      "hit_rate": 0.5
     }
    },
    "n_subjects": 3338,
    "cell": "fh_1h_tf_15m",
    "fh": "1h",
    "tf": "15m"
   },
   {
    "agree": {
     "n": 7304,
     "hit_rate": 0.4491,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4377,
      0.4605
     ]
    },
    "disagree": {
     "n": 97,
     "hit_rate": 0.4742,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.3777,
      0.5727
     ]
    },
    "lift_pp": -2.5,
    "thin_or_tied": 1397,
    "by_margin": {
     "2": {
      "n": 72,
      "hit_rate": 0.5556
     },
     "3": {
      "n": 790,
      "hit_rate": 0.457
     },
     "4": {
      "n": 1051,
      "hit_rate": 0.4986
     },
     "5": {
      "n": 1882,
      "hit_rate": 0.457
     },
     "6": {
      "n": 3509,
      "hit_rate": 0.426
     }
    },
    "n_subjects": 8798,
    "cell": "fh_4h_tf_4h",
    "fh": "4h",
    "tf": "4h"
   },
   {
    "agree": {
     "n": 8503,
     "hit_rate": 0.4373,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4267,
      0.4478
     ]
    },
    "disagree": {
     "n": 109,
     "hit_rate": 0.5138,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4211,
      0.6055
     ]
    },
    "lift_pp": -7.7,
    "thin_or_tied": 1316,
    "by_margin": {
     "2": {
      "n": 44,
      "hit_rate": 0.4091
     },
     "3": {
      "n": 709,
      "hit_rate": 0.4386
     },
     "4": {
      "n": 1091,
      "hit_rate": 0.4638
     },
     "5": {
      "n": 1886,
      "hit_rate": 0.4533
     },
     "6": {
      "n": 4773,
      "hit_rate": 0.4249
     }
    },
    "n_subjects": 9928,
    "cell": "fh_4h_tf_1h",
    "fh": "4h",
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    "2026-09-22": {
     "move_pct": -0.4,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-23": {
     "move_pct": -2.04,
     "regime": "trend"
    },
    "2026-09-24": {
     "move_pct": 0.02,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-25": {
     "move_pct": -0.46,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-26": {
     "move_pct": 0.36,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-27": {
     "move_pct": 0.2,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-28": {
     "move_pct": -1.19,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-29": {
     "move_pct": 0.22,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-30": {
     "move_pct": -0.22,
     "regime": "flat"
    }
   },
   "grok_era": {
    "ids_in_window": [
     "grok-4.5",
     "grok-4.6"
    ],
    "n_grok45": 11128,
    "n_grok46": 7870,
    "n_grok45_rows": 11128,
    "n_grok46_rows": 7870,
    "first_grok46_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00",
    "last_grok45_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
    "first_grok45_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
    "flip_at": "2026-08-24T09:22:00+00:00",
    "flip_inside_window": true,
    "prev_window": {
     "n_grok45_rows": 0,
     "n_grok46_rows": 0
    },
    "merged_model_id": "grok-4.6",
    "merged_label": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
    "lineage_ids": [
     "grok-4.5",
     "grok-4.6"
    ],
    "lineage_source": "benchmarks.config.lineage_ids(head) for each of the 7 heads + MODEL_SUCCESSION[claude-opus-5=('claude-opus-4.8',), grok-4.6=('grok-4.5',), qwen-3.8-max=('qwen-3.7-max',)]",
    "lineage_warnings": [],
    "rows_remapped_a_plus_b": 11128,
    "note": "window QUARTER [2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00, 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00): grok-4.5 rows 11128, grok-4.6 rows 7870; flip 2026-08-24T09:22:00+00:00 is inside this window. All per-model aggregates use the lineage splice grok-4.5 -> grok-4.6 (one row, labelled 'grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)'). See lineage_era for the same facts across all 7 heads.",
    "cells_with_two_grok_rows": 865
   },
   "lineage_era": {
    "window_key": "QUARTER",
    "heads": [
     "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5",
     "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6",
     "qwen-3.8-max"
    ],
    "lineage_map": {
     "claude-opus-4.8": "claude-opus-5",
     "grok-4.5": "grok-4.6",
     "qwen-3.7-max": "qwen-3.8-max"
    },
    "legacy_by_head": {
     "claude-fable-5": [],
     "claude-opus-5": [
      "claude-opus-4.8"
     ],
     "deepseek-v4-pro": [],
     "gemini-3.1-pro": [],
     "gpt-5.6-sol": [],
     "grok-4.6": [
      "grok-4.5"
     ],
     "qwen-3.8-max": [
      "qwen-3.7-max"
     ]
    },
    "lineage_source": "benchmarks.config.lineage_ids(head) for each of the 7 heads + MODEL_SUCCESSION[claude-opus-5=('claude-opus-4.8',), grok-4.6=('grok-4.5',), qwen-3.8-max=('qwen-3.7-max',)]",
    "lineage_resolved_heads": [
     "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5",
     "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6",
     "qwen-3.8-max"
    ],
    "lineage_warnings": [],
    "per_head": {
     "claude-fable-5": {
      "legacy_ids": [],
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
      "by_legacy_id": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
      "n_rows_successor": 19009,
      "spliced_in_window": false,
      "label": "claude-fable-5"
     },
     "claude-opus-5": {
      "legacy_ids": [
       "claude-opus-4.8"
      ],
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "claude-opus-4.8"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "claude-opus-4.8": 6315
      },
      "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
       "claude-opus-4.8": 0
      },
      "by_legacy_id": {
       "claude-opus-4.8": {
        "n_rows_remapped": {
         "QUARTER": 6315,
         "prev_window": 0
        },
        "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
        "last_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
        "first_slot_prev_window": null,
        "last_slot_prev_window": null
       }
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
      "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
      "n_rows_successor": 12695,
      "spliced_in_window": true,
      "label": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)"
     },
     "deepseek-v4-pro": {
      "legacy_ids": [],
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
      "by_legacy_id": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
      "n_rows_successor": 19007,
      "spliced_in_window": false,
      "label": "deepseek-v4-pro"
     },
     "gemini-3.1-pro": {
      "legacy_ids": [],
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
      "by_legacy_id": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
      "n_rows_successor": 19006,
      "spliced_in_window": false,
      "label": "gemini-3.1-pro"
     },
     "gpt-5.6-sol": {
      "legacy_ids": [],
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
      "by_legacy_id": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
      "n_rows_successor": 19010,
      "spliced_in_window": false,
      "label": "gpt-5.6-sol"
     },
     "grok-4.6": {
      "legacy_ids": [
       "grok-4.5"
      ],
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "grok-4.5"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "grok-4.5": 11128
      },
      "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
       "grok-4.5": 0
      },
      "by_legacy_id": {
       "grok-4.5": {
        "n_rows_remapped": {
         "QUARTER": 11128,
         "prev_window": 0
        },
        "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
        "last_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
        "first_slot_prev_window": null,
        "last_slot_prev_window": null
       }
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00",
      "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
      "n_rows_successor": 7870,
      "spliced_in_window": true,
      "label": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)"
     },
     "qwen-3.8-max": {
      "legacy_ids": [
       "qwen-3.7-max"
      ],
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "qwen-3.7-max"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "qwen-3.7-max": 7479
      },
      "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
       "qwen-3.7-max": 0
      },
      "by_legacy_id": {
       "qwen-3.7-max": {
        "n_rows_remapped": {
         "QUARTER": 7479,
         "prev_window": 0
        },
        "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
        "last_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
        "first_slot_prev_window": null,
        "last_slot_prev_window": null
       }
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-05T10:01:00+00:00",
      "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
      "n_rows_successor": 11520,
      "spliced_in_window": true,
      "label": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
     }
    },
    "labels": {
     "claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
     "deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
     "qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
    },
    "rows_remapped_window": 24922,
    "rows_remapped_prev_window": 0,
    "note": "Only the 7 current models are tracked; earlier versions are folded into their successors' lineage. Every per-model aggregate in this pack sees the merged head id; the raw id survives in model_raw. Labels and era spans are generated from the pulled rows, not hardcoded.",
    "cells_with_two_rows_per_head": {
     "claude-fable-5": 1257,
     "claude-opus-5": 1258,
     "deepseek-v4-pro": 1257,
     "gemini-3.1-pro": 1230,
     "gpt-5.6-sol": 1258,
     "grok-4.6": 865,
     "qwen-3.8-max": 1253
    }
   },
   "series_density": {
    "1d": {
     "days_with_slots": 77,
     "expected_days": 92,
     "full_daily_coverage": false,
     "in_fh_gate": true,
     "n_slots": 77,
     "n_rows": 6930,
     "days": [
      "2026-07-16",
      "2026-07-17",
      "2026-07-18",
      "2026-07-19",
      "2026-07-20",
      "2026-07-21",
      "2026-07-22",
      "2026-07-23",
      "2026-07-24",
      "2026-07-25",
      "2026-07-26",
      "2026-07-27",
      "2026-07-28",
      "2026-07-29",
      "2026-07-30",
      "2026-07-31",
      "2026-08-01",
      "2026-08-02",
      "2026-08-03",
      "2026-08-04",
      "2026-08-05",
      "2026-08-06",
      "2026-08-07",
      "2026-08-08",
      "2026-08-09",
      "2026-08-10",
      "2026-08-11",
      "2026-08-12",
      "2026-08-13",
      "2026-08-14",
      "2026-08-15",
      "2026-08-16",
      "2026-08-17",
      "2026-08-18",
      "2026-08-19",
      "2026-08-20",
      "2026-08-21",
      "2026-08-22",
      "2026-08-23",
      "2026-08-24",
      "2026-08-25",
      "2026-08-26",
      "2026-08-27",
      "2026-08-28",
      "2026-08-29",
      "2026-08-30",
      "2026-08-31",
      "2026-09-01",
      "2026-09-02",
      "2026-09-03",
      "2026-09-04",
      "2026-09-05",
      "2026-09-06",
      "2026-09-07",
      "2026-09-08",
      "2026-09-09",
      "2026-09-10",
      "2026-09-11",
      "2026-09-12",
      "2026-09-13",
      "2026-09-14",
      "2026-09-15",
      "2026-09-16",
      "2026-09-17",
      "2026-09-18",
      "2026-09-19",
      "2026-09-20",
      "2026-09-21",
      "2026-09-22",
      "2026-09-23",
      "2026-09-24",
      "2026-09-25",
      "2026-09-26",
      "2026-09-27",
      "2026-09-28",
      "2026-09-29",
      "2026-09-30"
     ],
     "missing_days": [
      "2026-07-01",
      "2026-07-02",
      "2026-07-03",
      "2026-07-04",
      "2026-07-05",
      "2026-07-06",
      "2026-07-07",
      "2026-07-08",
      "2026-07-09",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-11",
      "2026-07-12",
      "2026-07-13",
      "2026-07-14",
      "2026-07-15"
     ]
    },
    "1h": {
     "days_with_slots": 78,
     "expected_days": 92,
     "full_daily_coverage": false,
     "in_fh_gate": true,
     "n_slots": 1851,
     "n_rows": 78685,
     "days": [
      "2026-07-15",
      "2026-07-16",
      "2026-07-17",
      "2026-07-18",
      "2026-07-19",
      "2026-07-20",
      "2026-07-21",
      "2026-07-22",
      "2026-07-23",
      "2026-07-24",
      "2026-07-25",
      "2026-07-26",
      "2026-07-27",
      "2026-07-28",
      "2026-07-29",
      "2026-07-30",
      "2026-07-31",
      "2026-08-01",
      "2026-08-02",
      "2026-08-03",
      "2026-08-04",
      "2026-08-05",
      "2026-08-06",
      "2026-08-07",
      "2026-08-08",
      "2026-08-09",
      "2026-08-10",
      "2026-08-11",
      "2026-08-12",
      "2026-08-13",
      "2026-08-14",
      "2026-08-15",
      "2026-08-16",
      "2026-08-17",
      "2026-08-18",
      "2026-08-19",
      "2026-08-20",
      "2026-08-21",
      "2026-08-22",
      "2026-08-23",
      "2026-08-24",
      "2026-08-25",
      "2026-08-26",
      "2026-08-27",
      "2026-08-28",
      "2026-08-29",
      "2026-08-30",
      "2026-08-31",
      "2026-09-01",
      "2026-09-02",
      "2026-09-03",
      "2026-09-04",
      "2026-09-05",
      "2026-09-06",
      "2026-09-07",
      "2026-09-08",
      "2026-09-09",
      "2026-09-10",
      "2026-09-11",
      "2026-09-12",
      "2026-09-13",
      "2026-09-14",
      "2026-09-15",
      "2026-09-16",
      "2026-09-17",
      "2026-09-18",
      "2026-09-19",
      "2026-09-20",
      "2026-09-21",
      "2026-09-22",
      "2026-09-23",
      "2026-09-24",
      "2026-09-25",
      "2026-09-26",
      "2026-09-27",
      "2026-09-28",
      "2026-09-29",
      "2026-09-30"
     ],
     "missing_days": [
      "2026-07-01",
      "2026-07-02",
      "2026-07-03",
      "2026-07-04",
      "2026-07-05",
      "2026-07-06",
      "2026-07-07",
      "2026-07-08",
      "2026-07-09",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-11",
      "2026-07-12",
      "2026-07-13",
      "2026-07-14"
     ]
    },
    "1m": {
     "days_with_slots": 41,
     "expected_days": 92,
     "full_daily_coverage": false,
     "in_fh_gate": false,
     "n_slots": 41,
     "n_rows": 2940,
     "days": [
      "2026-07-20",
      "2026-08-01",
      "2026-08-23",
      "2026-08-24",
      "2026-08-25",
      "2026-08-26",
      "2026-08-27",
      "2026-08-28",
      "2026-08-29",
      "2026-08-30",
      "2026-08-31",
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      "2026-09-02",
      "2026-09-03",
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      "2026-09-06",
      "2026-09-07",
      "2026-09-08",
      "2026-09-09",
      "2026-09-10",
      "2026-09-11",
      "2026-09-12",
      "2026-09-13",
      "2026-09-14",
      "2026-09-15",
      "2026-09-16",
      "2026-09-17",
      "2026-09-18",
      "2026-09-19",
      "2026-09-20",
      "2026-09-21",
      "2026-09-22",
      "2026-09-23",
      "2026-09-24",
      "2026-09-25",
      "2026-09-26",
      "2026-09-27",
      "2026-09-28",
      "2026-09-29",
      "2026-09-30"
     ],
     "missing_days": [
      "2026-07-01",
      "2026-07-02",
      "2026-07-03",
      "2026-07-04",
      "2026-07-05",
      "2026-07-06",
      "2026-07-07",
      "2026-07-08",
      "2026-07-09",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-11",
      "2026-07-12",
      "2026-07-13",
      "2026-07-14",
      "2026-07-15",
      "2026-07-16",
      "2026-07-17",
      "2026-07-18",
      "2026-07-19",
      "2026-07-21",
      "2026-07-22",
      "2026-07-23",
      "2026-07-24",
      "2026-07-25",
      "2026-07-26",
      "2026-07-27",
      "2026-07-28",
      "2026-07-29",
      "2026-07-30",
      "2026-07-31",
      "2026-08-02",
      "2026-08-03",
      "2026-08-04",
      "2026-08-05",
      "2026-08-06",
      "2026-08-07",
      "2026-08-08",
      "2026-08-09",
      "2026-08-10",
      "2026-08-11",
      "2026-08-12",
      "2026-08-13",
      "2026-08-14",
      "2026-08-15",
      "2026-08-16",
      "2026-08-17",
      "2026-08-18",
      "2026-08-19",
      "2026-08-20",
      "2026-08-21",
      "2026-08-22"
     ]
    },
    "1w": {
     "days_with_slots": 55,
     "expected_days": 92,
     "full_daily_coverage": false,
     "in_fh_gate": false,
     "n_slots": 55,
     "n_rows": 4830,
     "days": [
      "2026-07-16",
      "2026-07-17",
      "2026-07-18",
      "2026-07-19",
      "2026-07-20",
      "2026-07-21",
      "2026-07-22",
      "2026-07-23",
      "2026-07-24",
      "2026-07-25",
      "2026-07-26",
      "2026-07-27",
      "2026-08-03",
      "2026-08-10",
      "2026-08-17",
      "2026-08-22",
      "2026-08-23",
      "2026-08-24",
      "2026-08-25",
      "2026-08-26",
      "2026-08-27",
      "2026-08-28",
      "2026-08-29",
      "2026-08-30",
      "2026-08-31",
      "2026-09-01",
      "2026-09-02",
      "2026-09-03",
      "2026-09-04",
      "2026-09-05",
      "2026-09-06",
      "2026-09-07",
      "2026-09-08",
      "2026-09-09",
      "2026-09-10",
      "2026-09-11",
      "2026-09-12",
      "2026-09-13",
      "2026-09-14",
      "2026-09-15",
      "2026-09-16",
      "2026-09-17",
      "2026-09-18",
      "2026-09-19",
      "2026-09-20",
      "2026-09-21",
      "2026-09-22",
      "2026-09-23",
      "2026-09-24",
      "2026-09-25",
      "2026-09-26",
      "2026-09-27",
      "2026-09-28",
      "2026-09-29",
      "2026-09-30"
     ],
     "missing_days": [
      "2026-07-01",
      "2026-07-02",
      "2026-07-03",
      "2026-07-04",
      "2026-07-05",
      "2026-07-06",
      "2026-07-07",
      "2026-07-08",
      "2026-07-09",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-11",
      "2026-07-12",
      "2026-07-13",
      "2026-07-14",
      "2026-07-15",
      "2026-07-28",
      "2026-07-29",
      "2026-07-30",
      "2026-07-31",
      "2026-08-01",
      "2026-08-02",
      "2026-08-04",
      "2026-08-05",
      "2026-08-06",
      "2026-08-07",
      "2026-08-08",
      "2026-08-09",
      "2026-08-11",
      "2026-08-12",
      "2026-08-13",
      "2026-08-14",
      "2026-08-15",
      "2026-08-16",
      "2026-08-18",
      "2026-08-19",
      "2026-08-20",
      "2026-08-21"
     ]
    },
    "4h": {
     "days_with_slots": 78,
     "expected_days": 92,
     "full_daily_coverage": false,
     "in_fh_gate": true,
     "n_slots": 462,
     "n_rows": 39654,
     "days": [
      "2026-07-15",
      "2026-07-16",
      "2026-07-17",
      "2026-07-18",
      "2026-07-19",
      "2026-07-20",
      "2026-07-21",
      "2026-07-22",
      "2026-07-23",
      "2026-07-24",
      "2026-07-25",
      "2026-07-26",
      "2026-07-27",
      "2026-07-28",
      "2026-07-29",
      "2026-07-30",
      "2026-07-31",
      "2026-08-01",
      "2026-08-02",
      "2026-08-03",
      "2026-08-04",
      "2026-08-05",
      "2026-08-06",
      "2026-08-07",
      "2026-08-08",
      "2026-08-09",
      "2026-08-10",
      "2026-08-11",
      "2026-08-12",
      "2026-08-13",
      "2026-08-14",
      "2026-08-15",
      "2026-08-16",
      "2026-08-17",
      "2026-08-18",
      "2026-08-19",
      "2026-08-20",
      "2026-08-21",
      "2026-08-22",
      "2026-08-23",
      "2026-08-24",
      "2026-08-25",
      "2026-08-26",
      "2026-08-27",
      "2026-08-28",
      "2026-08-29",
      "2026-08-30",
      "2026-08-31",
      "2026-09-01",
      "2026-09-02",
      "2026-09-03",
      "2026-09-04",
      "2026-09-05",
      "2026-09-06",
      "2026-09-07",
      "2026-09-08",
      "2026-09-09",
      "2026-09-10",
      "2026-09-11",
      "2026-09-12",
      "2026-09-13",
      "2026-09-14",
      "2026-09-15",
      "2026-09-16",
      "2026-09-17",
      "2026-09-18",
      "2026-09-19",
      "2026-09-20",
      "2026-09-21",
      "2026-09-22",
      "2026-09-23",
      "2026-09-24",
      "2026-09-25",
      "2026-09-26",
      "2026-09-27",
      "2026-09-28",
      "2026-09-29",
      "2026-09-30"
     ],
     "missing_days": [
      "2026-07-01",
      "2026-07-02",
      "2026-07-03",
      "2026-07-04",
      "2026-07-05",
      "2026-07-06",
      "2026-07-07",
      "2026-07-08",
      "2026-07-09",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-11",
      "2026-07-12",
      "2026-07-13",
      "2026-07-14"
     ]
    }
   },
   "model_roster": {
    "current": [
     "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5",
     "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6",
     "qwen-3.8-max"
    ],
    "current_count": 7,
    "current_raw_ids_in_window": [
     "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-4.8",
     "claude-opus-5",
     "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.5",
     "grok-4.6",
     "qwen-3.7-max",
     "qwen-3.8-max"
    ],
    "archived_legacy": [
     "grok-4.5",
     "qwen-3.7-max",
     "claude-opus-4.8"
    ],
    "archived_legacy_count": 3,
    "archived_legacy_detail": [
     {
      "model": "grok-4.5",
      "n_rows_since": 11128,
      "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00"
     },
     {
      "model": "qwen-3.7-max",
      "n_rows_since": 7479,
      "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00"
     },
     {
      "model": "claude-opus-4.8",
      "n_rows_since": 6315,
      "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00"
     }
    ],
    "archived_excluding_lineage_merged": [],
    "tracked_total": 10,
    "canon_expected": {
     "current": 7,
     "archived_legacy": 4,
     "tracked_total": 11
    },
    "matches_canon_11_7_4": false,
    "roster_rule_w213": "7 models tracked (current line-up; earlier versions folded into their successors' lineage)",
    "canon_expected_w213": {
     "current": 7
    },
    "heads_w213": [
     "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5",
     "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6",
     "qwen-3.8-max"
    ],
    "matches_canon_7_current": true,
    "heads_missing_in_window": [],
    "heads_unexpected_in_window": [],
    "roster_since": "2026-07-11T00:00:00+00:00",
    "note": "current = merged-lineage model ids emitting inside the window (legacy ids are spliced into their successor); archived legacy = raw ids seen since 2026-07-11 that no longer emit in the window. Models retired before 2026-07-11 are not visible to this query. The canon checks are DESCRIPTIVE: if the data says otherwise, the data wins and is printed."
   }
  },
  "by_week": {
   "rows": [
    {
     "week": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_label": "Jul 15-31",
     "n_scoreable": 16993,
     "herd_share_pct": 97.4,
     "agree_hit": 0.4464,
     "disagree_hit": 0.5528,
     "lift_pp": -10.6,
     "unanimity_cells": 1456,
     "unanimity_n": 11531,
     "unanimity_hit": 0.4562,
     "published_lift_pp": -10.6,
     "published_n_scoreable": 16993,
     "published_unanimous_cells_ge6": 1446
    },
    {
     "week": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_label": "Aug 1-31",
     "n_scoreable": 16089,
     "herd_share_pct": 98.7,
     "agree_hit": 0.4554,
     "disagree_hit": 0.436,
     "lift_pp": 1.9,
     "unanimity_cells": 1672,
     "unanimity_n": 10984,
     "unanimity_hit": 0.4539,
     "published_lift_pp": 1.9,
     "published_n_scoreable": 16089,
     "published_unanimous_cells_ge6": 1672
    },
    {
     "week": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_label": "Sep 1-30",
     "n_scoreable": 17625,
     "herd_share_pct": 99.2,
     "agree_hit": 0.4507,
     "disagree_hit": 0.5474,
     "lift_pp": -9.7,
     "unanimity_cells": 1965,
     "unanimity_n": 13121,
     "unanimity_hit": 0.4423,
     "published_lift_pp": -9.7,
     "published_n_scoreable": 17625,
     "published_unanimous_cells_ge6": 1965
    },
    {
     "week": "quarter",
     "label": "Jul 15-Sep 30",
     "n_scoreable": 50707,
     "herd_share_pct": 98.5,
     "agree_hit": 0.4508,
     "disagree_hit": 0.5204,
     "lift_pp": -7.0,
     "unanimity_cells": 5093,
     "unanimity_n": 35636,
     "unanimity_hit": 0.4504
    }
   ],
   "source": "quarter_pull_split_by_slot_month (cutoff 2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00)",
   "unanimity_definition": "unanimity = a cell (slot x symbol x fh x tf) in which every directional forecast is on the same side and at least 6 models are present -- the same N the w201 herd block uses (counters/consensus.herd.unanimous_cells_ge6); the LOO peer floor is 3 peers.",
   "published_cross_check": {
    "M1": {
     "n_scoreable": 16993,
     "agree_n": 16557,
     "agree_hit": 0.4464,
     "agree_wilson_95": [
      0.4388,
      0.454
     ],
     "disagree_n": 436,
     "disagree_hit": 0.5528,
     "disagree_wilson_95": [
      0.5058,
      0.5988
     ],
     "lift_pp": -10.6,
     "herd_share_pct": 97.4,
     "thin_or_tied": 2548,
     "by_margin_all": {
      "2": {
       "n": 137,
       "hit_rate": 0.4672
      },
      "3": {
       "n": 1609,
       "hit_rate": 0.427
      },
      "4": {
       "n": 2394,
       "hit_rate": 0.4353
      },
      "5": {
       "n": 3628,
       "hit_rate": 0.4308
      },
      "6": {
       "n": 8789,
       "hit_rate": 0.4591
      }
     },
     "unanimous_cells_ge6": 1446,
     "source": "months.M1.consensus.loo_pooled (frozen cutoff)"
    },
    "M2": {
     "n_scoreable": 16089,
     "agree_n": 15878,
     "agree_hit": 0.4554,
     "agree_wilson_95": [
      0.4477,
      0.4632
     ],
     "disagree_n": 211,
     "disagree_hit": 0.436,
     "disagree_wilson_95": [
      0.3708,
      0.5035
     ],
     "lift_pp": 1.9,
     "herd_share_pct": 98.7,
     "thin_or_tied": 3294,
     "by_margin_all": {
      "2": {
       "n": 138,
       "hit_rate": 0.6014
      },
      "3": {
       "n": 1964,
       "hit_rate": 0.4593
      },
      "4": {
       "n": 2630,
       "hit_rate": 0.4513
      },
      "5": {
       "n": 4482,
       "hit_rate": 0.4581
      },
      "6": {
       "n": 6664,
       "hit_rate": 0.4511
      }
     },
     "unanimous_cells_ge6": 1672,
     "source": "months.M2.consensus.loo_pooled (frozen cutoff)"
    },
    "M3": {
     "n_scoreable": 17625,
     "agree_n": 17488,
     "agree_hit": 0.4507,
     "agree_wilson_95": [
      0.4433,
      0.4581
     ],
     "disagree_n": 137,
     "disagree_hit": 0.5474,
     "disagree_wilson_95": [
      0.4639,
      0.6284
     ],
     "lift_pp": -9.7,
     "herd_share_pct": 99.2,
     "thin_or_tied": 3057,
     "by_margin_all": {
      "2": {
       "n": 87,
       "hit_rate": 0.4253
      },
      "3": {
       "n": 1712,
       "hit_rate": 0.4585
      },
      "4": {
       "n": 2400,
       "hit_rate": 0.4971
      },
      "5": {
       "n": 3972,
       "hit_rate": 0.4383
      },
      "6": {
       "n": 9317,
       "hit_rate": 0.4428
      }
     },
     "unanimous_cells_ge6": 1965,
     "source": "months.M3.consensus.loo_pooled (frozen cutoff)"
    }
   },
   "weeks_matching_published_lift": [
    "M1",
    "M2",
    "M3"
   ]
  },
  "margin_by_week": {
   "tiers": [
    "3",
    "4",
    "5",
    "6"
   ],
   "rows": [
    {
     "margin": 3,
     "weeks": {
      "M1": {
       "n": 1609,
       "hit_rate": 0.427
      },
      "M2": {
       "n": 1964,
       "hit_rate": 0.4593
      },
      "M3": {
       "n": 1712,
       "hit_rate": 0.4585
      }
     },
     "month": {
      "n": 5285,
      "hit_rate": 0.4492
     }
    },
    {
     "margin": 4,
     "weeks": {
      "M1": {
       "n": 2394,
       "hit_rate": 0.4353
      },
      "M2": {
       "n": 2630,
       "hit_rate": 0.4513
      },
      "M3": {
       "n": 2400,
       "hit_rate": 0.4971
      }
     },
     "month": {
      "n": 7424,
      "hit_rate": 0.4609
     }
    },
    {
     "margin": 5,
     "weeks": {
      "M1": {
       "n": 3628,
       "hit_rate": 0.4308
      },
      "M2": {
       "n": 4482,
       "hit_rate": 0.4581
      },
      "M3": {
       "n": 3972,
       "hit_rate": 0.4383
      }
     },
     "month": {
      "n": 12082,
      "hit_rate": 0.4434
     }
    },
    {
     "margin": 6,
     "weeks": {
      "M1": {
       "n": 8789,
       "hit_rate": 0.4591
      },
      "M2": {
       "n": 6664,
       "hit_rate": 0.4511
      },
      "M3": {
       "n": 9317,
       "hit_rate": 0.4428
      }
     },
     "month": {
      "n": 24770,
      "hit_rate": 0.4508
     }
    }
   ],
   "source": "quarter_pull_split_by_slot_month (cutoff 2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00)"
  },
  "prior_window_consensus": {
   "applicable": false,
   "reason": "no prior quarter: there is nothing before the platform start (forecasts since 2026-07-11; candles since 2026-07-15)"
  },
  "verdict_block": {
   "rule": "Verdict rule: each row states one reading of the quarter; a month agrees when it shows the same reading (same sign, or the same name). Confirmed = 2 or 3 of the 3 months agree with the quarter; Rejected = 0 or 1. M1 holds Jul 15-31 only: the platform's first forecast slot is Jul 15 18:01 UTC. Monthly cells come from the frozen monthly packs (7-line roster, lineage spliced); the quarter is the pooled Jul 15-Sep 30 pull.",
   "header": [
    "Metric",
    "M1 Jul 15-31",
    "M2 Aug 1-31",
    "M3 Sep 1-30",
    "Quarter",
    "Verdict"
   ],
   "widths_mm": [
    44,
    26,
    26,
    26,
    20,
    32
   ],
   "weeks_source": "frozen monthly packs (months.M1..M3 of the quarterly pack, 7-line roster, lineage spliced)",
   "month_source": "the pooled Jul 15-Sep 30 pull (quarter block)",
   "rows": [
    {
     "metric": "LOO lift, pp",
     "weeks": {
      "M1": {
       "value": "-10.6",
       "reading": "negative"
      },
      "M2": {
       "value": "+1.9",
       "reading": "positive"
      },
      "M3": {
       "value": "-9.7",
       "reading": "negative"
      }
     },
     "month": {
      "value": "-7.0",
      "reading": "negative"
     },
     "agree_count": 2,
     "verdict": "Confirmed (2/3)"
    },
    {
     "metric": "Herd share >= 95%",
     "weeks": {
      "M1": {
       "value": "97.4%",
       "reading": ">= 95%"
      },
      "M2": {
       "value": "98.7%",
       "reading": ">= 95%"
      },
      "M3": {
       "value": "99.2%",
       "reading": ">= 95%"
      }
     },
     "month": {
      "value": "98.5%",
      "reading": ">= 95%"
     },
     "agree_count": 3,
     "verdict": "Confirmed (3/3)"
    },
    {
     "metric": "Unanimity hit vs field hit",
     "weeks": {
      "M1": {
       "value": "+0.9",
       "reading": "positive"
      },
      "M2": {
       "value": "-1.2",
       "reading": "negative"
      },
      "M3": {
       "value": "-1.2",
       "reading": "negative"
      }
     },
     "month": {
      "value": "-0.5",
      "reading": "negative"
     },
     "agree_count": 2,
     "verdict": "Confirmed (2/3)"
    }
   ],
   "rule_tail": "The M1 unanimity cell uses the same 6-peer tier as the other cells (45.9% vs the 45.0% field, +0.9); Monthly #1 printed July's unanimity by the wider herd rule (45.6%, +0.6), the same sign."
  }
 },
 "herd_note": "5,083 cells had 6+ directional models on one side; unanimous_cells_ge6 per quarterly metrics",
 "smart_note": "Smart-vs-Outlook deferred: as-of weights pipeline not yet recording; will appear once weights are logged per-slot (methodology 3.2.3 fallback)",
 "key_finding": {
  "label": "KEY FINDING · OBSERVATION (one quarterly window)",
  "text": "Herding ran at 98.5% of leave-one-out scoreable calls across the quarter and the pooled lift came in at -7.0pp: agree-hit 45.1% against 52.0% on disagreement, on a disagree bucket of n=784.",
  "evidence_level": "observation"
 },
 "key_findings": [
  "**OBSERVATION -- 98.5% of the field's leave-one-out calls ran with the herd over the quarter.** Of 50,707 LOO-scoreable directional calls, 49,923 (98.5%) sided with peers' majority; agree-hit was 45.1% [44.6%, 45.5%] vs. 52.0% [48.5%, 55.5%] for the 784 disagreers, a pooled lift of -7.0pp. Descriptive, one quarter, not a claim of a durable edge.",
  "**The margin curve read 44.9% / 46.1% / 44.3% / 45.1% from 3 peers to unanimity.** 1 of the 4 tiers sit above the 45.6% field base. By month the same four tiers read Jul 15-31 42.7% / 43.5% / 43.1% / 45.9%, Aug 1-31 45.9% / 45.1% / 45.8% / 45.1%, Sep 1-30 45.9% / 49.7% / 43.8% / 44.3%; there is no prior quarter.",
  "**Month by month the lift changed sign 2 times.** The three published monthly windows ran Jul 15-31 -10.6pp, Aug 1-31 +1.9pp, Sep 1-30 -9.7pp; the quarter pools at -7.0pp, and there is no prior quarter. The quarter is one pooled pull, not the mean of the months: the monthly range is -10.6pp to +1.9pp.",
  "**5,083 cells had 6+ directional models on one side across the quarter.** The 5 worst sat at 71.5-73.0 mean confidence and resolved 0.0%-0.0%; by month 1,446 / 1,672 / 1,965 such cells (Jul 15-31 / Aug 1-31 / Sep 1-30)."
 ],
 "market_check": {
  "label": "MARKET CHECK · OBSERVATION (three months of the quarter)",
  "text": "OBSERVATION -- mean |1d move| 1.54% / 1.98% / 1.91% by month (1.81% over the quarter), BTC realized vol 33.5% / 36.9% / 34.9% (35.1%; ann., hourly); field directional accuracy 45.0% / 46.3% / 45.5% (45.6%), sim win-rate 31.9% / 35.8% / 38.4% (35.4%), field sim PnL -$3095.02 / -$1054.79 / -$2554.15 (-$6703.95) (Jul 15-31 / Aug 1-31 / Sep 1-30, quarter in parentheses; descriptive, three windows, not a claim).",
  "robustness": "Robustness: raw price-sign accuracy 46.8% / 46.0% / 48.4% by month (47.1% over the quarter) against 45.0% / 46.3% / 45.5% (45.6%) under the trade-based hit rule; month to month the two moved in the same direction in 0 of 2 steps.",
  "weeks": {
   "A": {
    "days": "2026-04-01..2026-06-30",
    "slots": [
     "2026-04-01T00:00:00+00:00",
     "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00"
    ],
    "cutoff": "2026-07-01T16:00:00+00:00",
    "partial": false
   },
   "B": {
    "days": "2026-07-01..2026-09-30",
    "slots": [
     "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00",
     "2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00"
    ],
    "cutoff": "2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00"
   }
  },
  "price_source": "crypto_spot/1h@:00",
  "accuracy_field": {
   "A": {
    "n": 0,
    "hit_rate": null,
    "wilson_95": [
     null,
     null
    ]
   },
   "B": {
    "n": 59606,
    "hit_rate": 0.456,
    "wilson_95": [
     0.452,
     0.46
    ]
   },
   "delta_pp": null
  },
  "accuracy_per_model": [
   {
    "model": "claude-fable-5",
    "model_label": "claude-fable-5",
    "A": {
     "n": 0,
     "hit_rate": null,
     "wilson_95": [
      null,
      null
     ]
    },
    "B": {
     "n": 8447,
     "hit_rate": 0.4554,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4448,
      0.4661
     ]
    },
    "delta_pp": null
   },
   {
    "model": "claude-opus-5",
    "model_label": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
    "A": {
     "n": 0,
     "hit_rate": null,
     "wilson_95": [
      null,
      null
     ]
    },
    "B": {
     "n": 8261,
     "hit_rate": 0.4585,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4478,
      0.4693
     ]
    },
    "delta_pp": null
   },
   {
    "model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "model_label": "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "A": {
     "n": 0,
     "hit_rate": null,
     "wilson_95": [
      null,
      null
     ]
    },
    "B": {
     "n": 7799,
     "hit_rate": 0.453,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.442,
      0.4641
     ]
    },
    "delta_pp": null
   },
   {
    "model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "model_label": "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "A": {
     "n": 0,
     "hit_rate": null,
     "wilson_95": [
      null,
      null
     ]
    },
    "B": {
     "n": 9130,
     "hit_rate": 0.4716,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4614,
      0.4819
     ]
    },
    "delta_pp": null
   },
   {
    "model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "model_label": "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "A": {
     "n": 0,
     "hit_rate": null,
     "wilson_95": [
      null,
      null
     ]
    },
    "B": {
     "n": 9188,
     "hit_rate": 0.4486,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4385,
      0.4588
     ]
    },
    "delta_pp": null
   },
   {
    "model": "grok-4.6",
    "model_label": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
    "A": {
     "n": 0,
     "hit_rate": null,
     "wilson_95": [
      null,
      null
     ]
    },
    "B": {
     "n": 7244,
     "hit_rate": 0.45,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4386,
      0.4615
     ]
    },
    "delta_pp": null
   },
   {
    "model": "qwen-3.8-max",
    "model_label": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)",
    "A": {
     "n": 0,
     "hit_rate": null,
     "wilson_95": [
      null,
      null
     ]
    },
    "B": {
     "n": 9537,
     "hit_rate": 0.4535,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4435,
      0.4635
     ]
    },
    "delta_pp": null
   }
  ],
  "raw_sign_field": {
   "A": {
    "n_scored": 0,
    "hit_rate": null
   },
   "B": {
    "n_scored": 57798,
    "hit_rate": 0.471
   }
  },
  "abs_move_1d": {
   "A": null,
   "B": 1.806,
   "delta_pct_rel": null
  },
  "btc_realized_vol_ann_pct_hourly": {
   "A": null,
   "B": 35.11
  },
  "trading_field": {
   "A": {
    "n_trades": 0
   },
   "B": {
    "n_trades": 59606,
    "wr": 0.354,
    "pnl_net_usd": -6703.95,
    "pnl_gross_usd": -743.35
   }
  },
  "verdict": {
   "models_with_hit_improved": null,
   "models_with_rawsign_improved": null,
   "models_with_wr_improved": null,
   "field_hit_delta_pp": null,
   "field_pnl_net": {
    "A": null,
    "B": -6703.95
   },
   "abs_move_delta": {
    "1h": {
     "A": null,
     "B": 0.323,
     "delta_pct_rel": null
    },
    "4h": {
     "A": null,
     "B": 0.672,
     "delta_pct_rel": null
    },
    "1d": {
     "A": null,
     "B": 1.806,
     "delta_pct_rel": null
    }
   },
   "btc_vol_ann_pct": {
    "A": null,
    "B": 35.11
   },
   "note": "descriptive, two adjacent windows; hit rule = methodology v1.1 trade-based; raw_sign = price-sign robustness check (closes at :00 vs slots at :01)"
  },
  "lineage_note": "lineage splice ACTIVE for all 7 heads: [('claude-opus-4.8', 'claude-opus-5'), ('grok-4.5', 'grok-4.6'), ('qwen-3.7-max', 'qwen-3.8-max')]. Window QUARTER remapped 24922 row(s), the previous window 0. Labels are generated from the pulled rows (see lineage_era).",
  "prior_window_partial": false,
  "by_month": {
   "M1": {
    "mean_abs_move_1d_pct": 1.536,
    "btc_vol_ann_pct_hourly": 33.46,
    "field_hit_rate": 0.4498,
    "models_improving_vs_previous_month": null,
    "raw_sign_hit_rate": 0.4684,
    "sim_win_rate": 0.3188,
    "sim_net_pnl_usd": -3095.02,
    "label": "Jul 15-31"
   },
   "M2": {
    "mean_abs_move_1d_pct": 1.979,
    "btc_vol_ann_pct_hourly": 36.92,
    "field_hit_rate": 0.4633,
    "models_improving_vs_previous_month": "5 of 7",
    "raw_sign_hit_rate": 0.4599,
    "sim_win_rate": 0.3576,
    "sim_net_pnl_usd": -1054.79,
    "label": "Aug 1-31"
   },
   "M3": {
    "mean_abs_move_1d_pct": 1.905,
    "btc_vol_ann_pct_hourly": 34.88,
    "field_hit_rate": 0.455,
    "models_improving_vs_previous_month": "1 of 7",
    "raw_sign_hit_rate": 0.4837,
    "sim_win_rate": 0.384,
    "sim_net_pnl_usd": -2554.15,
    "label": "Sep 1-30"
   },
   "quarter": {
    "mean_abs_move_1d_pct": 1.806,
    "btc_vol_ann_pct_hourly": 35.11,
    "field_hit_rate": 0.456,
    "models_improving_vs_previous_month": null,
    "raw_sign_hit_rate": 0.471,
    "sim_win_rate": 0.354,
    "sim_net_pnl_usd": -6703.95,
    "label": "Jul 15-Sep 30, 2026"
   }
  }
 },
 "why_it_matters": "MarketMania publishes forecasts from 7 frontier model lines into the same slots every hour; a natural question for anyone reading the feed is whether a model's call is worth more when it agrees with what everyone else is saying, or whether that agreement is just everyone making the same mistake together. The three monthly windows inside this quarter answered it with lifts of Jul 15-31 -10.6pp, Aug 1-31 +1.9pp, Sep 1-30 -9.7pp, and the pooled quarter reads -7.0pp. This quarterly issue asks the same question at quarterly n, across three months the pack labels as 1 calm and 2 volatile, using the same leave-one-out design built to avoid comparing a model to an index that includes its own vote.",
 "how_to_read_this": "For every model M and every forecast it made, we rebuild that slot's consensus using only the OTHER active models in the same symbol / forecast-horizon (FH) / timeframe (TF) cell -- M's own call never counts toward its own consensus. M is scored agree if its side (long or short) matches the strict majority of those peers, and disagree if it sits alone against that majority; a cell needs at least 3 directional peers to count at all, and tied peer splits are excluded rather than forced either way. LOO peers are genuinely external to the model being scored, so the comparison below is not comparing a model to itself. 3 model lines are lineage splices this quarter (claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30); grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24); qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)), and a spliced line never counts as two peers in a cell. The quarter is one pull at one cutoff (Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC); the three monthly blocks quoted alongside it are the published monthly windows at their own frozen cutoffs.",
 "practical_implications": [
  "1 of the 4 margin tiers sit above the 45.6% field base this quarter; the four tier rates span 44.3% to 46.1%, a spread of +1.7pp, and the three months inside the quarter ran lifts of -10.6pp to +1.9pp against a pooled quarterly lift of -7.0pp.",
  "The pooled quarterly lift is -7.0pp while the three months ran -10.6pp to +1.9pp; there is no prior quarter to compare against.",
  "The field base read 45.0% / 46.3% / 45.5% by month (45.6% over the quarter), and every consensus tier is measured against that base."
 ],
 "limitations": [
  "No prior quarter: this is the first quarterly issue (platform data begin Jul 15, 2026), so every \"prior\" cell reads n/a and the page-2 chart carries no gray series; a month inside the quarter is not a prior window. Partial quarter: the window is the calendar quarter Jul 1-Sep 30; the platform's first forecast slot is Jul 15 18:01 UTC, so 78 of 92 days carry data. Asset universe: the quarter's rows also carry 1,592 directional calls on AVAX (414), DOGE (347), LINK (436), PEPE (394) and TON (1), all in Jul 15-31; they are counted in the field totals but not ranked in the asset tables.",
  "Two cutoffs live in this issue. The quarter is frozen at Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC; the three monthly blocks are frozen at their own published cutoffs (M1 Jul 15-31, M2 Aug 1-31, M3 Sep 1-30). A forecast still pending at its month's cutoff is immature in the monthly pack and mature in the quarter pull, so the quarter need not equal the sum of the months; here the two agree (59,606 vs 59,606 directional; no day of the quarter falls outside the three months): the quarter pull split by slot month gives 19,541 / 19,383 / 20,682, the same as the frozen monthly packs.",
  "Observations are not independent: the same models watch overlapping symbol / FH / TF cells hour after hour for 78 days. Wilson intervals here are descriptive, not inferential, and pooling a quarter does not make them inferential.",
  "The pooled lift rests on 784 disagreeing calls; per-model counts run 29-231. 8,899 calls (14.9% of the 59,606-call mature directional universe) were thin or tied and are excluded from every consensus table. Correlational, not causal: LOO removes self-match bias, not the confound that an easy slot lifts agreement and hit together.",
  "This window ran 24 trend days of 77 with a BTC daily move (Jul 1-15 carry none), and the pack's own volatility rule splits the three months of the quarter as M1 calm, M2 volatile, M3 volatile; every month-to-month comparison inside the quarter is a comparison across regimes as well as across windows. Series density and lineage notes (quarterly #1): (1) rolling-1w forecasts emit daily since Aug 22, 2026 and rolling-1M daily since Aug 23, 2026, so across this 92-day window daily coverage is PARTIAL as measured -- the 1w series has slots on 55 of 92 days and the 1M series on 41 of 92 days; both sit outside this report's FH gate (1h/4h/1d) and appear only in the exclusions counter (1w 4,001, 1M 2,787). (2) 3 model lines are lineage splices inside this window: claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30); grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24); qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5). (3) Every per-model aggregate in this issue sees the merged head id; the raw id is kept in the pack, and 24,922 rows were remapped inside the quarter (19,532 / 5,390 / 0 in Jul 15-31 / Aug 1-31 / Sep 1-30).",
  "Market-state row is computed on a single-exchange (binance) daily candle series, as in the weekly series after the audit that found the raw table mixes two exchanges. The quarter block covers 78 days (Jul 15-Sep 30) of the 92-day calendar quarter, and there is no prior-quarter block, so the TOP5 volume figure is a 78-day sum with no quarter-over-quarter change.",
  "Research-to-date counter: directional forecasts resolved inside the FH gate (1h/4h/1d) since Jul 11, counted at the issue cutoff (Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) -- the D2 definition pinned in the weekly series; this issue prints 59,755. The pack carries no prior-cutoff pin for a quarterly window (not applicable: there is no prior quarter, and the prior-cutoff counts are 0 by construction), so the control this issue is the monthly reproduction: the M3 block of this pack (Sep 1-30) reproduces the published Monthly #2 on 7 of 7 checks, the M2 block (Aug 1-31, cutoff Tue Sep 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the published Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks, and the M1 block (Jul 15-31, cutoff Sat Aug 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the prior window of Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks. Counter deltas against pre-wave-3 issues remain definitional."
 ],
 "notes": {
  "series_density_and_lineage_quarterly1": "Series density and lineage notes (quarterly #1): (1) rolling-1w forecasts emit daily since Aug 22, 2026 and rolling-1M daily since Aug 23, 2026, so across this 92-day window daily coverage is PARTIAL as measured -- the 1w series has slots on 55 of 92 days and the 1M series on 41 of 92 days; both sit outside this report's FH gate (1h/4h/1d) and appear only in the exclusions counter (1w 4,001, 1M 2,787). (2) 3 model lines are lineage splices inside this window: claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30); grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24); qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5). (3) Every per-model aggregate in this issue sees the merged head id; the raw id is kept in the pack, and 24,922 rows were remapped inside the quarter (19,532 / 5,390 / 0 in Jul 15-31 / Aug 1-31 / Sep 1-30).",
  "grok_era": {
   "ids_in_window": [
    "grok-4.5",
    "grok-4.6"
   ],
   "n_grok45": 11128,
   "n_grok46": 7870,
   "n_grok45_rows": 11128,
   "n_grok46_rows": 7870,
   "first_grok46_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00",
   "last_grok45_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
   "first_grok45_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
   "flip_at": "2026-08-24T09:22:00+00:00",
   "flip_inside_window": true,
   "prev_window": {
    "n_grok45_rows": 0,
    "n_grok46_rows": 0
   },
   "merged_model_id": "grok-4.6",
   "merged_label": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
   "lineage_ids": [
    "grok-4.5",
    "grok-4.6"
   ],
   "lineage_source": "benchmarks.config.lineage_ids(head) for each of the 7 heads + MODEL_SUCCESSION[claude-opus-5=('claude-opus-4.8',), grok-4.6=('grok-4.5',), qwen-3.8-max=('qwen-3.7-max',)]",
   "lineage_warnings": [],
   "rows_remapped_a_plus_b": 11128,
   "note": "window QUARTER [2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00, 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00): grok-4.5 rows 11128, grok-4.6 rows 7870; flip 2026-08-24T09:22:00+00:00 is inside this window. All per-model aggregates use the lineage splice grok-4.5 -> grok-4.6 (one row, labelled 'grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)'). See lineage_era for the same facts across all 7 heads.",
   "cells_with_two_grok_rows": 865
  },
  "model_ids_line": [
   "claude-fable-5",
   "claude-opus-5",
   "deepseek-v4-pro",
   "gemini-3.1-pro",
   "gpt-5.6-sol",
   "grok-4.6",
   "qwen-3.8-max"
  ],
  "model_roster": {
   "current": [
    "claude-fable-5",
    "claude-opus-5",
    "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "grok-4.6",
    "qwen-3.8-max"
   ],
   "current_count": 7,
   "current_raw_ids_in_window": [
    "claude-fable-5",
    "claude-opus-4.8",
    "claude-opus-5",
    "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "grok-4.5",
    "grok-4.6",
    "qwen-3.7-max",
    "qwen-3.8-max"
   ],
   "archived_legacy": [
    "grok-4.5",
    "qwen-3.7-max",
    "claude-opus-4.8"
   ],
   "archived_legacy_count": 3,
   "archived_legacy_detail": [
    {
     "model": "grok-4.5",
     "n_rows_since": 11128,
     "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00"
    },
    {
     "model": "qwen-3.7-max",
     "n_rows_since": 7479,
     "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00"
    },
    {
     "model": "claude-opus-4.8",
     "n_rows_since": 6315,
     "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00"
    }
   ],
   "archived_excluding_lineage_merged": [],
   "tracked_total": 10,
   "canon_expected": {
    "current": 7,
    "archived_legacy": 4,
    "tracked_total": 11
   },
   "matches_canon_11_7_4": false,
   "roster_rule_w213": "7 models tracked (current line-up; earlier versions folded into their successors' lineage)",
   "canon_expected_w213": {
    "current": 7
   },
   "heads_w213": [
    "claude-fable-5",
    "claude-opus-5",
    "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "grok-4.6",
    "qwen-3.8-max"
   ],
   "matches_canon_7_current": true,
   "heads_missing_in_window": [],
   "heads_unexpected_in_window": [],
   "roster_since": "2026-07-11T00:00:00+00:00",
   "note": "current = merged-lineage model ids emitting inside the window (legacy ids are spliced into their successor); archived legacy = raw ids seen since 2026-07-11 that no longer emit in the window. Models retired before 2026-07-11 are not visible to this query. The canon checks are DESCRIPTIVE: if the data says otherwise, the data wins and is printed."
  },
  "series_density": {
   "1d": {
    "days_with_slots": 77,
    "expected_days": 92,
    "full_daily_coverage": false,
    "in_fh_gate": true,
    "n_slots": 77,
    "n_rows": 6930,
    "days": [
     "2026-07-16",
     "2026-07-17",
     "2026-07-18",
     "2026-07-19",
     "2026-07-20",
     "2026-07-21",
     "2026-07-22",
     "2026-07-23",
     "2026-07-24",
     "2026-07-25",
     "2026-07-26",
     "2026-07-27",
     "2026-07-28",
     "2026-07-29",
     "2026-07-30",
     "2026-07-31",
     "2026-08-01",
     "2026-08-02",
     "2026-08-03",
     "2026-08-04",
     "2026-08-05",
     "2026-08-06",
     "2026-08-07",
     "2026-08-08",
     "2026-08-09",
     "2026-08-10",
     "2026-08-11",
     "2026-08-12",
     "2026-08-13",
     "2026-08-14",
     "2026-08-15",
     "2026-08-16",
     "2026-08-17",
     "2026-08-18",
     "2026-08-19",
     "2026-08-20",
     "2026-08-21",
     "2026-08-22",
     "2026-08-23",
     "2026-08-24",
     "2026-08-25",
     "2026-08-26",
     "2026-08-27",
     "2026-08-28",
     "2026-08-29",
     "2026-08-30",
     "2026-08-31",
     "2026-09-01",
     "2026-09-02",
     "2026-09-03",
     "2026-09-04",
     "2026-09-05",
     "2026-09-06",
     "2026-09-07",
     "2026-09-08",
     "2026-09-09",
     "2026-09-10",
     "2026-09-11",
     "2026-09-12",
     "2026-09-13",
     "2026-09-14",
     "2026-09-15",
     "2026-09-16",
     "2026-09-17",
     "2026-09-18",
     "2026-09-19",
     "2026-09-20",
     "2026-09-21",
     "2026-09-22",
     "2026-09-23",
     "2026-09-24",
     "2026-09-25",
     "2026-09-26",
     "2026-09-27",
     "2026-09-28",
     "2026-09-29",
     "2026-09-30"
    ],
    "missing_days": [
     "2026-07-01",
     "2026-07-02",
     "2026-07-03",
     "2026-07-04",
     "2026-07-05",
     "2026-07-06",
     "2026-07-07",
     "2026-07-08",
     "2026-07-09",
     "2026-07-10",
     "2026-07-11",
     "2026-07-12",
     "2026-07-13",
     "2026-07-14",
     "2026-07-15"
    ]
   },
   "1h": {
    "days_with_slots": 78,
    "expected_days": 92,
    "full_daily_coverage": false,
    "in_fh_gate": true,
    "n_slots": 1851,
    "n_rows": 78685,
    "days": [
     "2026-07-15",
     "2026-07-16",
     "2026-07-17",
     "2026-07-18",
     "2026-07-19",
     "2026-07-20",
     "2026-07-21",
     "2026-07-22",
     "2026-07-23",
     "2026-07-24",
     "2026-07-25",
     "2026-07-26",
     "2026-07-27",
     "2026-07-28",
     "2026-07-29",
     "2026-07-30",
     "2026-07-31",
     "2026-08-01",
     "2026-08-02",
     "2026-08-03",
     "2026-08-04",
     "2026-08-05",
     "2026-08-06",
     "2026-08-07",
     "2026-08-08",
     "2026-08-09",
     "2026-08-10",
     "2026-08-11",
     "2026-08-12",
     "2026-08-13",
     "2026-08-14",
     "2026-08-15",
     "2026-08-16",
     "2026-08-17",
     "2026-08-18",
     "2026-08-19",
     "2026-08-20",
     "2026-08-21",
     "2026-08-22",
     "2026-08-23",
     "2026-08-24",
     "2026-08-25",
     "2026-08-26",
     "2026-08-27",
     "2026-08-28",
     "2026-08-29",
     "2026-08-30",
     "2026-08-31",
     "2026-09-01",
     "2026-09-02",
     "2026-09-03",
     "2026-09-04",
     "2026-09-05",
     "2026-09-06",
     "2026-09-07",
     "2026-09-08",
     "2026-09-09",
     "2026-09-10",
     "2026-09-11",
     "2026-09-12",
     "2026-09-13",
     "2026-09-14",
     "2026-09-15",
     "2026-09-16",
     "2026-09-17",
     "2026-09-18",
     "2026-09-19",
     "2026-09-20",
     "2026-09-21",
     "2026-09-22",
     "2026-09-23",
     "2026-09-24",
     "2026-09-25",
     "2026-09-26",
     "2026-09-27",
     "2026-09-28",
     "2026-09-29",
     "2026-09-30"
    ],
    "missing_days": [
     "2026-07-01",
     "2026-07-02",
     "2026-07-03",
     "2026-07-04",
     "2026-07-05",
     "2026-07-06",
     "2026-07-07",
     "2026-07-08",
     "2026-07-09",
     "2026-07-10",
     "2026-07-11",
     "2026-07-12",
     "2026-07-13",
     "2026-07-14"
    ]
   },
   "1m": {
    "days_with_slots": 41,
    "expected_days": 92,
    "full_daily_coverage": false,
    "in_fh_gate": false,
    "n_slots": 41,
    "n_rows": 2940,
    "days": [
     "2026-07-20",
     "2026-08-01",
     "2026-08-23",
     "2026-08-24",
     "2026-08-25",
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     "2026-08-27",
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    "missing_days": [
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     "2026-07-16",
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     "2026-07-18",
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     "2026-07-27",
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    ]
   },
   "1w": {
    "days_with_slots": 55,
    "expected_days": 92,
    "full_daily_coverage": false,
    "in_fh_gate": false,
    "n_slots": 55,
    "n_rows": 4830,
    "days": [
     "2026-07-16",
     "2026-07-17",
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    "missing_days": [
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     "2026-08-20",
     "2026-08-21"
    ]
   },
   "4h": {
    "days_with_slots": 78,
    "expected_days": 92,
    "full_daily_coverage": false,
    "in_fh_gate": true,
    "n_slots": 462,
    "n_rows": 39654,
    "days": [
     "2026-07-15",
     "2026-07-16",
     "2026-07-17",
     "2026-07-18",
     "2026-07-19",
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     "2026-08-11",
     "2026-08-12",
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     "2026-08-14",
     "2026-08-15",
     "2026-08-16",
     "2026-08-17",
     "2026-08-18",
     "2026-08-19",
     "2026-08-20",
     "2026-08-21",
     "2026-08-22",
     "2026-08-23",
     "2026-08-24",
     "2026-08-25",
     "2026-08-26",
     "2026-08-27",
     "2026-08-28",
     "2026-08-29",
     "2026-08-30",
     "2026-08-31",
     "2026-09-01",
     "2026-09-02",
     "2026-09-03",
     "2026-09-04",
     "2026-09-05",
     "2026-09-06",
     "2026-09-07",
     "2026-09-08",
     "2026-09-09",
     "2026-09-10",
     "2026-09-11",
     "2026-09-12",
     "2026-09-13",
     "2026-09-14",
     "2026-09-15",
     "2026-09-16",
     "2026-09-17",
     "2026-09-18",
     "2026-09-19",
     "2026-09-20",
     "2026-09-21",
     "2026-09-22",
     "2026-09-23",
     "2026-09-24",
     "2026-09-25",
     "2026-09-26",
     "2026-09-27",
     "2026-09-28",
     "2026-09-29",
     "2026-09-30"
    ],
    "missing_days": [
     "2026-07-01",
     "2026-07-02",
     "2026-07-03",
     "2026-07-04",
     "2026-07-05",
     "2026-07-06",
     "2026-07-07",
     "2026-07-08",
     "2026-07-09",
     "2026-07-10",
     "2026-07-11",
     "2026-07-12",
     "2026-07-13",
     "2026-07-14"
    ]
   }
  },
  "month_over_month_note": "Quarter-over-quarter columns would compare the prior quarter against Jul 15-Sep 30 (this issue); every prior cell reads n/a because this is the first quarterly issue: there is no prior quarter (platform data begin Jul 15, 2026).",
  "research_to_date_pin": "Research-to-date counter: directional forecasts resolved inside the FH gate (1h/4h/1d) since Jul 11, counted at the issue cutoff (Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) -- the D2 definition pinned in the weekly series; this issue prints 59,755. The pack carries no prior-cutoff pin for a quarterly window (not applicable: there is no prior quarter, and the prior-cutoff counts are 0 by construction), so the control this issue is the monthly reproduction: the M3 block of this pack (Sep 1-30) reproduces the published Monthly #2 on 7 of 7 checks, the M2 block (Aug 1-31, cutoff Tue Sep 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the published Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks, and the M1 block (Jul 15-31, cutoff Sat Aug 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the prior window of Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks. Counter deltas against pre-wave-3 issues remain definitional.",
  "market_state_audit": "Market-state row is computed on a single-exchange (binance) daily candle series, as in the weekly series after the audit that found the raw table mixes two exchanges. The quarter block covers 78 days (Jul 15-Sep 30) of the 92-day calendar quarter, and there is no prior-quarter block, so the TOP5 volume figure is a 78-day sum with no quarter-over-quarter change.",
  "engine": "Engine 1.1 has powered the sandbox since Aug 18, i.e. inside this window; no cross-engine PnL comparisons are claimed.",
  "report_template": "PDF built with the canonical mm_report.py template module; preview card with report_preview.render_preview",
  "lineage_era": {
   "window_key": "QUARTER",
   "heads": [
    "claude-fable-5",
    "claude-opus-5",
    "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "grok-4.6",
    "qwen-3.8-max"
   ],
   "lineage_map": {
    "claude-opus-4.8": "claude-opus-5",
    "grok-4.5": "grok-4.6",
    "qwen-3.7-max": "qwen-3.8-max"
   },
   "legacy_by_head": {
    "claude-fable-5": [],
    "claude-opus-5": [
     "claude-opus-4.8"
    ],
    "deepseek-v4-pro": [],
    "gemini-3.1-pro": [],
    "gpt-5.6-sol": [],
    "grok-4.6": [
     "grok-4.5"
    ],
    "qwen-3.8-max": [
     "qwen-3.7-max"
    ]
   },
   "lineage_source": "benchmarks.config.lineage_ids(head) for each of the 7 heads + MODEL_SUCCESSION[claude-opus-5=('claude-opus-4.8',), grok-4.6=('grok-4.5',), qwen-3.8-max=('qwen-3.7-max',)]",
   "lineage_resolved_heads": [
    "claude-fable-5",
    "claude-opus-5",
    "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "grok-4.6",
    "qwen-3.8-max"
   ],
   "lineage_warnings": [],
   "per_head": {
    "claude-fable-5": {
     "legacy_ids": [],
     "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
     "n_rows_remapped": {},
     "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
     "by_legacy_id": {},
     "first_legacy_slot": null,
     "last_legacy_slot": null,
     "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
     "n_rows_successor": 19009,
     "spliced_in_window": false,
     "label": "claude-fable-5"
    },
    "claude-opus-5": {
     "legacy_ids": [
      "claude-opus-4.8"
     ],
     "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
      "claude-opus-4.8"
     ],
     "n_rows_remapped": {
      "claude-opus-4.8": 6315
     },
     "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
      "claude-opus-4.8": 0
     },
     "by_legacy_id": {
      "claude-opus-4.8": {
       "n_rows_remapped": {
        "QUARTER": 6315,
        "prev_window": 0
       },
       "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
       "last_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
       "first_slot_prev_window": null,
       "last_slot_prev_window": null
      }
     },
     "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
     "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
     "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
     "n_rows_successor": 12695,
     "spliced_in_window": true,
     "label": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)"
    },
    "deepseek-v4-pro": {
     "legacy_ids": [],
     "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
     "n_rows_remapped": {},
     "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
     "by_legacy_id": {},
     "first_legacy_slot": null,
     "last_legacy_slot": null,
     "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
     "n_rows_successor": 19007,
     "spliced_in_window": false,
     "label": "deepseek-v4-pro"
    },
    "gemini-3.1-pro": {
     "legacy_ids": [],
     "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
     "n_rows_remapped": {},
     "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
     "by_legacy_id": {},
     "first_legacy_slot": null,
     "last_legacy_slot": null,
     "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
     "n_rows_successor": 19006,
     "spliced_in_window": false,
     "label": "gemini-3.1-pro"
    },
    "gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "legacy_ids": [],
     "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
     "n_rows_remapped": {},
     "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
     "by_legacy_id": {},
     "first_legacy_slot": null,
     "last_legacy_slot": null,
     "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
     "n_rows_successor": 19010,
     "spliced_in_window": false,
     "label": "gpt-5.6-sol"
    },
    "grok-4.6": {
     "legacy_ids": [
      "grok-4.5"
     ],
     "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
      "grok-4.5"
     ],
     "n_rows_remapped": {
      "grok-4.5": 11128
     },
     "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
      "grok-4.5": 0
     },
     "by_legacy_id": {
      "grok-4.5": {
       "n_rows_remapped": {
        "QUARTER": 11128,
        "prev_window": 0
       },
       "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
       "last_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
       "first_slot_prev_window": null,
       "last_slot_prev_window": null
      }
     },
     "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
     "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00",
     "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
     "n_rows_successor": 7870,
     "spliced_in_window": true,
     "label": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)"
    },
    "qwen-3.8-max": {
     "legacy_ids": [
      "qwen-3.7-max"
     ],
     "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
      "qwen-3.7-max"
     ],
     "n_rows_remapped": {
      "qwen-3.7-max": 7479
     },
     "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
      "qwen-3.7-max": 0
     },
     "by_legacy_id": {
      "qwen-3.7-max": {
       "n_rows_remapped": {
        "QUARTER": 7479,
        "prev_window": 0
       },
       "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
       "last_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
       "first_slot_prev_window": null,
       "last_slot_prev_window": null
      }
     },
     "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
     "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-05T10:01:00+00:00",
     "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
     "n_rows_successor": 11520,
     "spliced_in_window": true,
     "label": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
    }
   },
   "labels": {
    "claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
    "claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
    "deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
    "qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
   },
   "rows_remapped_window": 24922,
   "rows_remapped_prev_window": 0,
   "note": "Only the 7 current models are tracked; earlier versions are folded into their successors' lineage. Every per-model aggregate in this pack sees the merged head id; the raw id survives in model_raw. Labels and era spans are generated from the pulled rows, not hardcoded.",
   "cells_with_two_rows_per_head": {
    "claude-fable-5": 1257,
    "claude-opus-5": 1258,
    "deepseek-v4-pro": 1257,
    "gemini-3.1-pro": 1230,
    "gpt-5.6-sol": 1258,
    "grok-4.6": 865,
    "qwen-3.8-max": 1253
   }
  },
  "frozen_cutoffs": "Two cutoffs live in this issue. The quarter is frozen at Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC; the three monthly blocks are frozen at their own published cutoffs (M1 Jul 15-31, M2 Aug 1-31, M3 Sep 1-30). A forecast still pending at its month's cutoff is immature in the monthly pack and mature in the quarter pull, so the quarter need not equal the sum of the months; here the two agree (59,606 vs 59,606 directional; no day of the quarter falls outside the three months): the quarter pull split by slot month gives 19,541 / 19,383 / 20,682, the same as the frozen monthly packs.",
  "partial_prior_window": "No prior quarter: this is the first quarterly issue (platform data begin Jul 15, 2026), so every \"prior\" cell reads n/a and the page-2 chart carries no gray series; a month inside the quarter is not a prior window. Partial quarter: the window is the calendar quarter Jul 1-Sep 30; the platform's first forecast slot is Jul 15 18:01 UTC, so 78 of 92 days carry data. Asset universe: the quarter's rows also carry 1,592 directional calls on AVAX (414), DOGE (347), LINK (436), PEPE (394) and TON (1), all in Jul 15-31; they are counted in the field totals but not ranked in the asset tables."
 },
 "bibtex_key": "mm_consensus_quarterly_2026q3",
 "citation": {
  "bibtex_key": "mm_consensus_quarterly_2026q3",
  "title": "Quarterly Consensus Watch #1: does agreeing with the crowd make an LLM's market call safer?",
  "author": "MarketMania Research",
  "year": 2026,
  "month": "October",
  "day": 8,
  "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/consensus-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf",
  "note": "Methodology v1.1; window Jul 15-Sep 30, 2026 UTC; source quarterly_metrics_2026-q3.json"
 },
 "living_series_note": "**Issue #1.** Quarterly Consensus Watch is a living quarterly comparison; each issue appends one more calendar quarter of leave-one-out agreement-vs-hit data. This first issue sets the baseline on a partial quarter (Jul 15-Sep 30): herd share 98.5%, pooled lift -7.0pp (agree 45.1% vs disagree 52.0% on n=784), three monthly lifts inside the quarter running -10.6pp to +1.9pp; there is no prior quarter. 3 model lines are lineage splices this quarter (claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30); grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24); qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)). Engine 1.1 has powered the sandbox since Aug 18, i.e. inside this window; no cross-engine PnL comparisons are claimed.",
 "testing_next": [
  "Quarterly #2 (Q4 2026): the same three series over Oct 1-Dec 31, cut on Jan 1 plus the maturity lag, so its quarter-over-quarter comparison runs against this partial Q3.",
  "Quarterly Config Watch #1: the same Q3 window through the config search engine (w309), published as the fourth quarterly report of this issue.",
  "Quarterly Stability Index: Run 3, the next repeat-prompt stability run, is the first cross-quarter point on model stability."
 ],
 "related_research": [
  {
   "title": "Quarterly Calibration #1",
   "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/calibration-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf"
  },
  {
   "title": "Quarterly Model Watch #1",
   "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/model-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf"
  },
  {
   "title": "Monthly Consensus Watch #2",
   "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.pdf"
  }
 ],
 "related_research_note": "The three quarterly reports publish together as one issue each quarter; each links straight to the others' PDF and to the last monthly issue of the same series. Direct links are the posting rule from wave 2 on.",
 "research_to_date": {
  "this_report": {
   "loo_scored_observations": 50707
  },
  "platform": {
   "as_of_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
   "resolved_forecasts": 59755,
   "resolved_forecasts_definition": "directional forecasts resolved inside the FH gate (1h/4h/1d) since Jul 11, at the issue cutoff",
   "resolved_forecasts_since": "2026-07-11",
   "models_tracked": 7,
   "models_tracked_detail": "7 models tracked (current line-up; earlier versions folded into their successors' lineage)",
   "assets": 5,
   "forecast_horizons": 5,
   "cadence": "hourly",
   "published_research_reports": 47
  },
  "source": "quarterly_metrics_2026-q3.json",
  "control_reproduces_wave3_pin": null,
  "pin_note": "Research-to-date counter: directional forecasts resolved inside the FH gate (1h/4h/1d) since Jul 11, counted at the issue cutoff (Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) -- the D2 definition pinned in the weekly series; this issue prints 59,755. The pack carries no prior-cutoff pin for a quarterly window (not applicable: there is no prior quarter, and the prior-cutoff counts are 0 by construction), so the control this issue is the monthly reproduction: the M3 block of this pack (Sep 1-30) reproduces the published Monthly #2 on 7 of 7 checks, the M2 block (Aug 1-31, cutoff Tue Sep 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the published Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks, and the M1 block (Jul 15-31, cutoff Sat Aug 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the prior window of Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks. Counter deltas against pre-wave-3 issues remain definitional.",
  "control_last_month_reproduces_monthly2": {
   "pins_source": "the published Monthly #2 JSONs calibration-monthly-2026-09.json, consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json, model-watch-monthly-2026-09.json",
   "note": "M3 of this run is the Monthly #2 window with the Monthly #2 frozen cutoff, so every pin must reproduce exactly. A mismatch means the window or the cutoff moved -- non-fatal here, but the quarterly numbers must not be published until it is explained.",
   "checks": {
    "counters.mature_directional": {
     "pin": 20682,
     "got": 20682,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0
    },
    "calibration.field.hit_rate": {
     "pin": 0.455,
     "got": 0.455,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 5e-05
    },
    "calibration.field.gap_pp": {
     "pin": 17.0,
     "got": 17.0,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0.05
    },
    "consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp": {
     "pin": -9.7,
     "got": -9.7,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0.05
    },
    "model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].model": {
     "pin": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "got": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0
    },
    "model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].hit_rate": {
     "pin": 0.4851,
     "got": 0.4851,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 5e-05
    },
    "research_to_date.canonical_value_at_cutoff": {
     "pin": 59755,
     "got": 59755,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0
    }
   },
   "all_match": true,
   "n_checks": 7,
   "n_match": 7,
   "last_month_key": "M3",
   "window_key": "M3"
  },
  "prior_cutoff_control": "not applicable: no prior quarter (the pack's research_to_date.prev_pin_applicable is false)"
 },
 "site_entry": {
  "slug": "consensus-watch-quarterly-2026-q3",
  "series": "quarterly",
  "seriesLabel": "Quarterly · Consensus",
  "date": "October 8, 2026",
  "title": "Quarterly Consensus Watch #1",
  "summary": "122,770 mature forecasts over one calendar quarter (Q3 2026, partial: platform data from Jul 15) asked whether agreeing with the crowd makes an LLM market call safer. Herding ran at 98.5% of leave-one-out scoreable calls and the pooled quarterly lift came in at -7.0pp: agree-hit 45.1% against 52.0% on disagreement, on a disagree bucket of n=784 and a 45.6% field base. The margin curve read 44.9% / 46.1% / 44.3% / 45.1% from 3 peers to full unanimity, while across the three months the monthly lifts ran -10.6pp to +1.9pp. Field accuracy read 45.0% / 46.3% / 45.5% by month (45.6% over the quarter); this first quarterly issue has no prior quarter.",
  "stats": [
   "50,707 peer-judged calls",
   "98.5% ran with the herd",
   "lift -7.0pp vs disagree"
  ],
  "manifest_key_finding": "Herding ran at 98.5% of leave-one-out scoreable calls across the quarter and the pooled lift came in at -7.0pp: agree-hit 45.1% against 52.0% on disagreement (disagree bucket n=784), against a 45.6% field base, while across the three months the monthly lifts ran -10.6pp to +1.9pp.",
  "files": {
   "pdf": "/research/reports/consensus-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf",
   "md": "/research/reports/consensus-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.md",
   "json": "/research/reports/consensus-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.json"
  }
 },
 "social": {
  "telegram": {
   "photo_caption_html": "🧭 <b>Quarterly Consensus Watch #1</b> — quarterly series, window Jul 15–Sep 30 (Q3 2026, partial)\n\nResearch question: if a model's forecast matches the consensus of the other models, is it more reliable?\n\n50,707 leave-one-out scored calls over one quarter, 7 model lines:\n• Herding ran at <b>98.5%</b> — agree-hit 45.1% vs <b>52.0%</b> when a model left the crowd (field base 45.6%, disagree n=784)\n• Margin curve: 3-peer 44.9%, 4-peer 46.1%, 5-peer 44.3%, unanimity 45.1%\n• Month by month the lift ran <b>-10.6pp to +1.9pp</b> across the three months\n• Market check: field accuracy 45.0% / 46.3% / 45.5% by month (45.6% for the quarter); avg |1d| move 1.54% / 1.98% / 1.91% (1.81%)\n\nNote: first quarterly issue, no prior quarter; platform data begin Jul 15\n\n📄 <a href=\"https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/consensus-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf\">Full report (PDF)</a> · <a href=\"https://marketmania.ai/research\">all research</a>\n\n#cryptotrading #LLM #AI #crypto #trading #consensus #research #Quarterly",
   "document_caption_html": "📄 Quarterly Consensus Watch #1 — full report (PDF).\nWeb copy: <a href=\"https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/consensus-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf\">consensus-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf</a> · machine-readable: <a href=\"https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/consensus-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.json\">JSON</a> · <a href=\"https://marketmania.ai/research\">all research</a>\n\n#cryptotrading #LLM #AI #crypto #trading #consensus #research #Quarterly",
   "caption_len": 1005,
   "document_caption_len": 444,
   "limit": 1024
  },
  "x": {
   "main": "Quarterly Consensus Watch #1 is out.\n\n50,707 peer-judged LLM calls over Q3 (data from Jul 15): 98.5% ran with the herd, agreeing scored 45.1% vs 52.0% for the 784 that left it (-7.0pp).\n\nFull report: https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/consensus-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf\n\n#AI #Crypto #Research #Consensus",
   "main_tco_len": 257,
   "reply": "Lift by month, then pooled:\nJul 15-31: -10.6pp\nAug 1-31: +1.9pp\nSep 1-30: -9.7pp\nQuarter: -7.0pp. Margin curve 44.9 / 46.1 / 44.3 / 45.1, field base 45.6.\nData: https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/consensus-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.json",
   "reply_tco_len": 184,
   "limit_tco": 280,
   "replies_max": 1
  }
 },
 "monthly_window": {
  "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00",
  "end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00",
  "text": "Jul 15-Sep 30, 2026 UTC",
  "cutoff": "2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00",
  "cutoff_text": "Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC",
  "days": 92,
  "label": "Jul 15-Sep 30",
  "badge": "Q3 2026 (partial: platform data from Jul 15)",
  "cell": "Q3 2026 · Jul 15-Sep 30 · partial",
  "partial": true,
  "effective_start": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
  "days_with_data": 78,
  "nominal_text": "Jul 1-Sep 30, 2026",
  "partial_note": "Q3 2026 is partial: the first forecasts of the platform are from 2026-07-11 and its first candles from 2026-07-15; the window is the calendar quarter 2026-07-01 .. 2026-10-01 and effective_start is computed from the rows"
 },
 "prior_window": {
  "start": "2026-04-01T00:00:00+00:00",
  "end": "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00",
  "text": "n/a (no prior quarter)",
  "printed_as": "the prior quarter",
  "cutoff_text": "Wed Jul 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC",
  "partial": false,
  "note": "no prior quarter: there is nothing before the platform start (forecasts since 2026-07-11; candles since 2026-07-15)",
  "applicable": false,
  "not_applicable_reason": "no prior quarter: there is nothing before the platform start (forecasts since 2026-07-11; candles since 2026-07-15)",
  "source": null,
  "effective_start": null,
  "counters": null,
  "definitions": null
 },
 "weeks_index": {
  "M1": {
   "label": "Jul 15-31",
   "issue": "Monthly #1 (prior window)",
   "published_slug_suffix": [
    "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z",
    "2026-08-01T00:00:00Z"
   ],
   "bounds": [
    "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z",
    "2026-08-01T00:00:00Z"
   ],
   "regime": "calm",
   "effective_start": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
  },
  "M2": {
   "label": "Aug 1-31",
   "issue": "Monthly #1",
   "published_slug_suffix": [
    "2026-08-01T00:00:00Z",
    "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z"
   ],
   "bounds": [
    "2026-08-01T00:00:00Z",
    "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z"
   ],
   "regime": "volatile",
   "effective_start": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
  },
  "M3": {
   "label": "Sep 1-30",
   "issue": "Monthly #2",
   "published_slug_suffix": [
    "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z",
    "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z"
   ],
   "bounds": [
    "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z",
    "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z"
   ],
   "regime": "volatile",
   "effective_start": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
  }
 },
 "roster_rule": "7 models tracked (current line-up; earlier versions folded into their successors' lineage)",
 "lineage_labels": {
  "labels": {
   "claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
   "claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
   "deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
   "gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
   "gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
   "grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
   "qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
  },
  "spliced_in_window": [
   "claude-opus-5",
   "grok-4.6",
   "qwen-3.8-max"
  ],
  "cell_form": {
   "claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (spliced)",
   "grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (spliced)",
   "qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (spliced)"
  },
  "families": [
   "opus",
   "grok",
   "qwen"
  ]
 },
 "controls": {
  "last_month_reproduces_monthly2": {
   "pins_source": "the published Monthly #2 JSONs calibration-monthly-2026-09.json, consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json, model-watch-monthly-2026-09.json",
   "note": "M3 of this run is the Monthly #2 window with the Monthly #2 frozen cutoff, so every pin must reproduce exactly. A mismatch means the window or the cutoff moved -- non-fatal here, but the quarterly numbers must not be published until it is explained.",
   "checks": {
    "counters.mature_directional": {
     "pin": 20682,
     "got": 20682,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0
    },
    "calibration.field.hit_rate": {
     "pin": 0.455,
     "got": 0.455,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 5e-05
    },
    "calibration.field.gap_pp": {
     "pin": 17.0,
     "got": 17.0,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0.05
    },
    "consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp": {
     "pin": -9.7,
     "got": -9.7,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0.05
    },
    "model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].model": {
     "pin": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "got": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0
    },
    "model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].hit_rate": {
     "pin": 0.4851,
     "got": 0.4851,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 5e-05
    },
    "research_to_date.canonical_value_at_cutoff": {
     "pin": 59755,
     "got": 59755,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0
    }
   },
   "all_match": true,
   "n_checks": 7,
   "n_match": 7,
   "last_month_key": "M3",
   "window_key": "M3"
  },
  "quarter_vs_months": {
   "quarter": 59606,
   "sum_months": 59606,
   "per_month": {
    "M1": 19541,
    "M2": 19383,
    "M3": 20682
   },
   "remainder_days": [],
   "remainder_days_n": 0,
   "remainder_mature_directional_quarter_pull": 0,
   "remainder_by_day": {},
   "sum_months_plus_remainder": 59606,
   "quarter_minus_sum_months_plus_remainder": 0,
   "quarter_pull_by_month": {
    "M1": 19541,
    "M2": 19383,
    "M3": 20682
   },
   "note": "These WILL differ, and the difference is expected: each monthly pack is computed at its own frozen cutoff (month_end + 16h), while the QUARTER pack is computed at 2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00. A forecast still pending at its month's cutoff (trade not yet closed) is immature in the monthly pack and mature in the QUARTER pack, so quarter >= sum_months + remainder (M3 has the QUARTER cutoff). remainder_days_n counts the calendar days of the quarter outside the three calendar months (none). quarter_pull_by_month is the same quarter pull split by slot month at the QUARTER cutoff -- compare THAT with per_month to see the cutoff effect alone. days_without_rows_from_window_start = whole days from the window start to the first slot of the QUARTER pull.",
   "days_without_rows_from_window_start": 14
  },
  "lineage_splice_counts": {
   "M1": {
    "claude-opus-4.8": 6315,
    "grok-4.5": 6608,
    "qwen-3.7-max": 6609
   },
   "M2": {
    "claude-opus-4.8": 0,
    "grok-4.5": 4520,
    "qwen-3.7-max": 870
   },
   "M3": {
    "claude-opus-4.8": 0,
    "grok-4.5": 0,
    "qwen-3.7-max": 0
   },
   "QUARTER": {
    "claude-opus-4.8": 6315,
    "grok-4.5": 11128,
    "qwen-3.7-max": 7479
   }
  },
  "lineage_splice_detail": {
   "QUARTER": {
    "total_window": 24922,
    "total_prev_window": 0,
    "labels": {
     "claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
     "deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
     "qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
    },
    "per_head": {
     "claude-fable-5": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "claude-opus-5": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "claude-opus-4.8"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "claude-opus-4.8": 6315
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "deepseek-v4-pro": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "gemini-3.1-pro": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "gpt-5.6-sol": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "grok-4.6": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "grok-4.5"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "grok-4.5": 11128
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "qwen-3.8-max": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "qwen-3.7-max"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "qwen-3.7-max": 7479
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-05T10:01:00+00:00"
     }
    }
   },
   "M1": {
    "total_window": 19532,
    "total_prev_window": 0,
    "labels": {
     "claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
     "deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-31)",
     "qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-31)"
    },
    "per_head": {
     "claude-fable-5": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "claude-opus-5": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "claude-opus-4.8"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "claude-opus-4.8": 6315
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "deepseek-v4-pro": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "gemini-3.1-pro": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "gpt-5.6-sol": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "grok-4.6": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "grok-4.5"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "grok-4.5": 6608
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-31T23:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": null
     },
     "qwen-3.8-max": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "qwen-3.7-max"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "qwen-3.7-max": 6609
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-31T23:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": null
     }
    }
   },
   "M2": {
    "total_window": 5390,
    "total_prev_window": 19532,
    "labels": {
     "claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5",
     "deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Aug 1-24)",
     "qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Aug 1-5)"
    },
    "per_head": {
     "claude-fable-5": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "claude-opus-5": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "claude-opus-4.8": 0
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "deepseek-v4-pro": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "gemini-3.1-pro": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "gpt-5.6-sol": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "grok-4.6": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "grok-4.5"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "grok-4.5": 4520
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "qwen-3.8-max": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "qwen-3.7-max"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "qwen-3.7-max": 870
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-05T10:01:00+00:00"
     }
    }
   },
   "M3": {
    "total_window": 0,
    "total_prev_window": 5390,
    "labels": {
     "claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5",
     "deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6": "grok-4.6",
     "qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max"
    },
    "per_head": {
     "claude-fable-5": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "claude-opus-5": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "claude-opus-4.8": 0
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "deepseek-v4-pro": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "gemini-3.1-pro": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "gpt-5.6-sol": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "grok-4.6": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "grok-4.5": 0
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "qwen-3.8-max": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "qwen-3.7-max": 0
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     }
    }
   }
  },
  "d2_at_cutoff": {
   "window_key": "QUARTER",
   "cutoff": "2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00",
   "canonical_definition": "D2_directional_only",
   "canonical_value_at_cutoff": 59755,
   "since": "2026-07-11T00:00:00+00:00",
   "d1_d3_at_cutoff": {
    "D1_expired_ok_in_gate": 122919,
    "D2_directional_only": 59755,
    "D3_weekly_rule_mature": 122770
   },
   "marker": "RTD-D2-QUARTERLY=59755",
   "note": "this is the quarterly RTD pin -- the number that goes into the Quarterly plain boxes",
   "monthly2_published": 59755,
   "m3_canonical_value_at_cutoff": 59755,
   "equals_monthly2": true
  },
  "prior_window_summary": {
   "applicable": false,
   "note": "prior window: not applicable (no prior quarter: there is nothing before the platform start (forecasts since 2026-07-11; candles since 2026-07-15))",
   "window_key": "QUARTER",
   "start": "2026-04-01T00:00:00+00:00",
   "end": "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00",
   "cutoff": "2026-07-01T16:00:00+00:00",
   "rows_in_prior_window": 0,
   "reason": "no prior quarter: there is nothing before the platform start (forecasts since 2026-07-11; candles since 2026-07-15)"
  },
  "m2_reproduces_monthly1": {
   "pins_source": "the published Monthly #1 JSONs calibration-monthly-2026-08.json, consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json, model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json (window 2026-08-01 .. 2026-09-01, cutoff 2026-09-01T16:00Z)",
   "note": "the M2 pack of this run has the window, the cutoff and the definitions of the month Monthly #1 published; each check is printed and stored as a fact. A mismatch is not fatal and nothing is adjusted to match.",
   "applicable": true,
   "d2_cutoff_used": "2026-09-01T16:00:00+00:00",
   "d2_slot_bound": "2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00",
   "checks": {
    "counters.mature_directional": {
     "pin": 19383,
     "got": 19383,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.counters.mature_directional"
    },
    "calibration.field.hit_rate": {
     "pin": 0.4633,
     "got": 0.4633,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 5e-05,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.calibration_main[7].hit_rate"
    },
    "calibration.field.gap_pp": {
     "pin": 16.3,
     "got": 16.3,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0.05,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.calibration_main[7].gap_pp"
    },
    "consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp": {
     "pin": 1.9,
     "got": 1.9,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0.05,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.pooled.lift_pp"
    },
    "model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].model": {
     "pin": "claude-opus-5",
     "got": "claude-opus-5",
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.leaderboard.rows[0].model"
    },
    "model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].hit_rate": {
     "pin": 0.4779,
     "got": 0.4779,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 5e-05,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.leaderboard.rows[0].hit_rate"
    },
    "research_to_date.canonical_value_at_cutoff": {
     "pin": 39073,
     "got": 39073,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.research_to_date.platform.resolved_forecasts"
    }
   },
   "all_match": true,
   "n_checks": 7,
   "n_match": 7,
   "window_key": "M2"
  },
  "m1_reproduces_monthly1_prior": {
   "pins_source": "the Monthly #1 pack monthly_metrics_2026-08.json: month.prior_window (July, window 2026-07-01 .. 2026-08-01, cutoff 2026-08-01T16:00Z) and month.research_to_date.at_prev_cutoff (D2 at 2026-08-01T16:00Z, slots < 2026-08-01); the first six are also the prior columns of the published Monthly #1 JSONs",
   "note": "the M1 pack of this run has the window and the cutoff of the July prior window of Monthly #1 (computed there as window A at the same cutoff); each check is printed and stored as a fact. A mismatch is not fatal and nothing is adjusted to match.",
   "applicable": true,
   "d2_cutoff_used": "2026-08-01T16:00:00+00:00",
   "d2_slot_bound": "2026-08-01T00:00:00+00:00",
   "checks": {
    "counters.mature_directional": {
     "pin": 19541,
     "got": 19541,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0,
     "published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.counters.mature_directional (published: calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.prior_window.counters.mature_directional)"
    },
    "calibration.field.hit_rate": {
     "pin": 0.4498,
     "got": 0.4498,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 5e-05,
     "published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.calibration.field.hit_rate (published: calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.prior_window_calibration.field.hit_rate)"
    },
    "calibration.field.gap_pp": {
     "pin": 17.8,
     "got": 17.8,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0.05,
     "published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.calibration.field.gap_pp (published: calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.prior_window_calibration.field.gap_pp)"
    },
    "consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp": {
     "pin": -10.6,
     "got": -10.6,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0.05,
     "published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp (published: consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.prior_window_consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp)"
    },
    "model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].model": {
     "pin": "qwen-3.8-max",
     "got": "qwen-3.8-max",
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0,
     "published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.model_watch.leaderboard[0].model (published: model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.prior_window_model_watch.leaderboard[0].model)"
    },
    "model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].hit_rate": {
     "pin": 0.4568,
     "got": 0.4568,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 5e-05,
     "published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.model_watch.leaderboard[0].hit_rate (published: model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.prior_window_model_watch.leaderboard[0].hit_rate)"
    },
    "research_to_date.canonical_value_at_cutoff": {
     "pin": 19690,
     "got": 19690,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0,
     "published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.research_to_date.at_prev_cutoff.D2_directional_only (not in the published JSONs)"
    }
   },
   "all_match": true,
   "n_checks": 7,
   "n_match": 7,
   "window_key": "M1"
  },
  "note": "controls are DESCRIPTIVE and never fatal; they are printed in the log as well",
  "builder_prior_vs_published_monthly1": {
   "applicable": false,
   "reason": "not applicable: no prior quarter; the month cells are checked in builder_months_vs_published_monthly"
  },
  "builder_months_vs_published_monthly": {
   "source": "months.M1..M3 of this pack (the frozen monthly packs) vs the published Monthly #1 / #2 JSONs (calibration-monthly-2026-08.json, calibration-monthly-2026-09.json, consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json, consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json, model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json, model-watch-monthly-2026-09.json)",
   "rule": "M3 <-> Monthly #2 (its month); M2 <-> Monthly #1 (its month); M1 <-> the prior columns of Monthly #1",
   "checks": [
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "lift_pp",
     "pack": -10.6,
     "published": -10.6,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp"
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "herd_share_pct",
     "pack": 97.4,
     "published": 97.4,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_consensus.loo_pooled agree_n / (agree_n + disagree_n)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "unanimity_6_hit",
     "pack": 0.4591,
     "published": null,
     "match": null,
     "published_path": "not published under the strict six-peer rule: consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_consensus.by_margin[unanimity] holds the wide rule (n=11531, hit 0.4562)",
     "note": "the verdict cell (unanimity hit minus field hit) reads +0.9 on the pack's strict rule and +0.6 on the published wide rule: same sign",
     "same_sign": true
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "field_hit",
     "pack": 0.4498,
     "published": 0.4498,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_calibration.field.hit_rate"
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "field_gap_pp",
     "pack": 17.8,
     "published": 17.8,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_calibration.field.gap_pp"
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "lowest_brier_model",
     "pack": "grok-4.6",
     "published": "grok-4.6",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_calibration.per_model (min brier)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "widest_gap_model",
     "pack": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "published": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_calibration.per_model (max gap_pp)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "leader_model",
     "pack": "qwen-3.8-max",
     "published": "qwen-3.8-max",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_model_watch.leaderboard (max hit_rate)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "most_readable_coin",
     "pack": "ETH",
     "published": "ETH",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_model_watch.by_symbol (max hit_rate, current coins)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "mature_directional",
     "pack": 19541,
     "published": 19541,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json prior_window.counters.mature_directional"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "lift_pp",
     "pack": 1.9,
     "published": 1.9,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.pooled.lift_pp"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "herd_share_pct",
     "pack": 98.7,
     "published": 98.7,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.pooled agree.n / (agree.n + disagree.n)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "unanimity_6_hit",
     "pack": 0.4511,
     "published": 0.4511,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.by_margin[margin=6].hit_rate"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "field_hit",
     "pack": 0.4633,
     "published": 0.4633,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.calibration_main[Field].hit_rate"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "field_gap_pp",
     "pack": 16.3,
     "published": 16.3,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.calibration_main[Field].gap_pp"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "lowest_brier_model",
     "pack": "claude-opus-5",
     "published": "claude-opus-5",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.calibration_main (min brier)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "widest_gap_model",
     "pack": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "published": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.calibration_main (max gap_pp)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "leader_model",
     "pack": "claude-opus-5",
     "published": "claude-opus-5",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.leaderboard.rows (max hit_rate)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "most_readable_coin",
     "pack": "BNB",
     "published": "BNB",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.ticker.rows (max hit_rate, current coins)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "mature_directional",
     "pack": 19383,
     "published": 19383,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.counters.mature_directional"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "lift_pp",
     "pack": -9.7,
     "published": -9.7,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json tables.pooled.lift_pp"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "herd_share_pct",
     "pack": 99.2,
     "published": 99.2,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json tables.pooled agree.n / (agree.n + disagree.n)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "unanimity_6_hit",
     "pack": 0.4428,
     "published": 0.4428,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json tables.by_margin[margin=6].hit_rate"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "field_hit",
     "pack": 0.455,
     "published": 0.455,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-09.json tables.calibration_main[Field].hit_rate"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "field_gap_pp",
     "pack": 17.0,
     "published": 17.0,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-09.json tables.calibration_main[Field].gap_pp"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "lowest_brier_model",
     "pack": "qwen-3.8-max",
     "published": "qwen-3.8-max",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-09.json tables.calibration_main (min brier)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "widest_gap_model",
     "pack": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "published": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-09.json tables.calibration_main (max gap_pp)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "leader_model",
     "pack": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "published": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-09.json tables.leaderboard.rows (max hit_rate)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "most_readable_coin",
     "pack": "XRP",
     "published": "XRP",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-09.json tables.ticker.rows (max hit_rate, current coins)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "mature_directional",
     "pack": 20682,
     "published": 20682,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-09.json tables.counters.mature_directional"
    }
   ],
   "n_checks": 29,
   "n_match": 29,
   "all_match": true,
   "not_comparable": [
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "check": "unanimity_6_hit",
     "why": "not published under the strict six-peer rule: consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_consensus.by_margin[unanimity] holds the wide rule (n=11531, hit 0.4562)"
    }
   ],
   "note": "printed in the build log as facts; never a source of a printed number"
  }
 }
}