{ "report": { "title": "Monthly Config Watch #2", "slug": "config-watch-monthly-2026-09", "series_label": "MONTHLY · CONFIG WATCH", "issue_number": 2, "new_series": false, "issue_date": "2026-10-03", "language": "English", "status": "published", "tagline": "one calendar month, 57 replays, one survival curve", "subtitle": "October 3, 2026 · MarketMania Research · Monthly series", "windows": { "MONTH": { "from": "2026-09-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "label": "Sep 1-30, 2026", "human": "Tue Sep 1 00:00 -> Wed Sep 30 23:59 UTC, 30 days", "calendar_month": true, "collect": "month" } }, "frozen_edge": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z", "window_note": "Slots fall inside the window; trades settle past its right edge at their horizon -- the same 2-3 day luft the engine has used since Config Watch #1 and that the live presets run on.", "methodology_version": "v1.1 + Config Watch amendments", "methodology_approval": "2026-08-12", "methodology_hash": "e66c7e8c864a2233", "amendments_formalization": "slated for methodology v1.2", "generated_at": "2026-10-02T17:14:05Z", "generated_at_by_collect": { "month": "2026-10-02T17:14:05Z" }, "engine": "1.1", "models": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gpt-5.6-sol", "deepseek-v4-pro", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max", "grok-4.6" ], "grok_note": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era)", "coins": [ "BTC", "ETH", "SOL", "BNB", "XRP" ], "pdf_url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-monthly-2026-09.pdf", "json_url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-monthly-2026-09.json", "series": "monthly", "series_label_site": "Monthly · Config Watch", "cadence": "monthly", "report_cutoff": "Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC", "prior_issue": { "title": "Monthly Config Watch #1", "slug": "config-watch-monthly-2026-08", "json_url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-monthly-2026-08.json", "window": "Aug 1-31, 2026" }, "prior_issue_note": "Every month-over-month number in this issue is read from Monthly Config Watch #1's open data (calendar August, Aug 1-31, 2026).", "weekly_sibling": { "title": "Config Watch #8", "slug": "config-watch-2026-09-23", "windows": { "WK": "Sep 21-28, 2026", "M30": "Aug 31-Sep 28, 2026" }, "shared_collect": false } }, "criteria": { "stake_table": { "1": 450, "2": 450, "3": 300, "4": 250, "5": 200 }, "stake_sweep_by_n": { "1": [ 300, 375 ], "2": [ 300, 375 ], "3": [ 225, 375 ], "4": [ 200, 300 ], "5": [ 150, 250 ] }, "maturity_min_closed": { "WK": 15, "M30": 20, "MONTH": 20 }, "calmar_like": "net_usd / max(max_dd_pct, 1.0), net>0 only", "stability": "mature net top-40 on BOTH windows", "smoothness": "smooth_r2 = R^2 of a linear fit of the daily closed-equity series (None below 4 days); ulcer = sqrt(mean(dd_pct^2)); board: mature, net>0, n_days>=5, rank smooth_r2 desc / ulcer asc", "quality_score": "mean rank over (net, calmar_like, wr, smooth_r2), mature only -- separate board, headline stays net", "concentrated_rule": "stake > table cap -> marked, excluded from headline boards" }, "counters": { "stages": { "s1": 952, "s4cw8": 10, "s4cw8o": 5, "s4cw7o": 5, "s4cw7": 10, "s4cw6": 10, "s4cw6o": 5, "s4cw5o": 4, "s4cw5": 8, "s4cw4o": 5, "s4cw4": 10, "s4cwm1": 6, "s4cwm1o": 3, "s4cw3o": 6, "s4cw3": 12, "s4cw2o": 8, "s4cw2": 16, "s4pre": 8, "s2p": 106, "s4cw1": 24, "s2": 8352, "s2b": 160, "s3b": 80, "s5t": 120, "s6t": 1110, "s6tc": 40 }, "stage_groups": { "Scan (s1)": 952, "Systematic grid (s2)": 8352, "Refinement: ladder + stake sweep (s2b+s3b)": 240, "Preset neighbourhood grid (s2p)": 106, "Per-ticker probes (s5t)": 120, "Dedicated per-ticker (s6t+s6tc)": 1150, "OOS replays (s4cw8+s4cw8o+s4cw7+s4cw7o+s4cw6+s4cw6o+s4cw5+s4cw5o+s4cw4+s4cw4o+s4cwm1+s4cwm1o+s4cw3+s4cw3o+s4cw2+s4cw2o+s4cw1+s4pre)": 155 }, "sims_total": 11075, "errors": 0, "zero_trade": 1686, "oos_replay_sims": 155, "phases_done": [ "p1_s1", "p2_ext", "p3_s2", "p4_s3a", "p5_s3b", "p6_s5t", "p7_s6t", "p8_s6tc" ], "scale_note": "Scale note. This issue's collect is a run of its own: 11,075 simulations over its two windows, against 10,889 in Monthly Config Watch #1's collect. Config Watch #8 ran two separate collects (5,601 weekly + 11,152 night = 16,753), which this issue does not use. The per-window stage-2 grid is 4,176 cells here and 4,208 on Config Watch #8's fresh week. The replay branch is 57 rows -- 53 past cards and 4 live presets -- for 155 simulations, because every row is replayed on both windows of this collect and the cards of eight cohorts are re-run on their origin windows. The selection boards and the survival, structure and 30-day tables cost zero simulations.", "extras_pass": { "provenance": "No extras pass. Equity series, the grid histogram (0 extra sims), the baselines and the calibrate pack are produced by the same collect that wrote the boards. The baseline runs are verification, outside the search total: 44 sims in this collect (11 configs x 2 windows x 2 stake modes), of which the 22 calendar-month rows are printed here and the other 22 (its four-week window) stay in the open data. 0 equity replays were needed.", "equity_replays": 0, "baseline_sims": 44, "baseline_sims_this_window": 22, "grid_hist_extra_sims": 0 }, "collect_note": "The month collect computes the four-week window and the calendar month in one pass; its totals are printed whole. It is a run of its own: no part of it ships with a weekly issue, and the four-week boards are not printed." }, "key_finding": { "label": "OBSERVATION (one calendar month)", "text": "The best mature council on calendar September makes +$1,041.5 (+104.2% of a $1,000 deposit, 71.1% win rate, 37.7% maxDD, 97 closed), 17 of the 53 cards this series has published are net-positive on the same month, and 7 of the 10 cards that survived both fresh windows of Config Watch #8 are among them." }, "market_context": { "source": "the monthly wave for the same window (2026-09 issue set); not re-tabulated here", "carried_this_issue": false, "note": "No market-regime numbers are in this issue's data pack and none are quoted in the report." }, "tldr": [ "OBSERVATION -- 17 of the 53 published cards are net-positive on the calendar month (calendar August: 20 of 26). Config Watch #8 read the 48 cards it inherited on its fresh week (Sep 21-28, 2026): 24 positive; on its four-week window (Aug 31-Sep 28, 2026): 16. By generation on the month: issue-8 2/5, issue-7 4/5, issue-6 4/5, issue-5 2/4, issue-4 2/5, Monthly-1 1/3, issue-3 0/6, issue-2 0/8, issue-1 2/12; live presets 0/4. On the 26 cards published before the month began (issue-3, issue-2 and issue-1) the reading is 2 of 26. The month holds 7 of that week's 7 days and 27 of that four-week window's 28, so the readings are not independent tests.", "The month's ceiling is +$1,041.5 on the council board and +$923.2 on the solo board (calendar August: +$1,618.4 and +$1,721.9). The council card runs at +104.2% of a $1,000 deposit, 71.1% win rate and 37.7% maxDD on 97 closed trades; the solo card at +92.3%, 85.8% win rate and 33.0% maxDD on 204 closed with 3 unfunded entries. The grid behind them: median -$5.7 and 29.6% positive across 4,176 stage-2 cells, 117 of them above +$500, range -$802.6 to +$1,041.5. On the four-week window of the same collect that grid ran 29.9% positive; the month leader reads +$943.0 on the four weeks against +$1,041.5 on the month, and Config Watch #8's four-week leader reads +$1,021.7 on the month against +$1,018.6 on the four weeks (section below).", "The survival curve reaches +7 fresh weeks for the issue-1 generation (+3 in Monthly Config Watch #1). Share of a generation's cards net-positive on its latest fresh week: issue-1 8.3% (+7); issue-2 75.0% (+6); issue-3 33.3% (+5); issue-4 80.0% (+4); Monthly-1 100.0% (+4); issue-5 50.0% (+3); issue-6 40.0% (+2); issue-7 80.0% (+1); issue-8 has no fresh week yet. Every cell is read out of the issue that ran that replay, and the points sit on 7 different calendar weeks, from Aug 10-17, 2026 to Sep 21-28, 2026.", "The 10 survivors and the 38 faded cards of Config Watch #8, side by side. The cards that cleared both of its fresh windows against those that did not: median fresh-week maxDD 19.1% vs 35.2%, median win rate 68.0% vs 61.5%, 4 of 10 against 15 of 38 on the 1d horizon, and 4 of 10 (40.0%) vs 5 of 38 (13.2%) calibrated. 10 rows against 38 rows on two windows is a description of two groups, not a test, and none of the traits is claimed to cause survival." ], "why_it_matters": "MarketMania publishes default LLM-council trading configs. The weekly Config Watch asks what one week of large-scale in-sample search extracts and how much of it survives the next week. This series asks the same question with the calendar month as the unit: one frozen 30-day window, the same engine, the same criteria and the same frozen search plan, and the same walk-forward table read on that window. Two measurements only a monthly cadence can carry are standing sections of the series: the survival curve by generation, which places each published card's replay on the k-th fresh week after its own issue and now covers 9 generations, and the structural comparison of the 10 cards that cleared both fresh windows of Config Watch #8 against the 38 that did not. The month is not an independent test of the weeks: 27 of its 30 days lie in the four published Config Watch weeks it is read against and 27 in Config Watch #8's four-week window, and every section that reads them together says so.", "how_we_searched": { "intro": "One frozen collect, run to the plan with the criteria frozen in writing *before* launch (w298 plan) and printed into the meta of the JSON deliverable: the month run, which sweeps the four-week window of Config Watch #8 and the calendar month in one pass. Every stage count below is that run whole. It is a run of its own -- no part of it ships with a weekly issue -- and the stage-2 grid is 4,176 cells on each of its two windows.", "stages": [ "1. Scan (s1) -- 952 sims across council compositions and coarse settings.", "2. Systematic grid (s2) -- 8,352 sims sweeping the declared axes (archetype, FH/TF, entry filters, universe, council size, membership, TP/SL source, ladder, break-even, TP/SL shift, calibrate and stake) -- the denominator for every distribution claim below.", "3. Refinement: ladder + stake sweep (s2b+s3b) -- 240 sims around the grid winners.", "4. Preset neighbourhood grid (s2p) -- 106 sims: one-knob neighbours of the live presets that have a local grid this issue.", "5. Per-ticker probes (s5t) -- 120 sims: best finalists split onto single coins.", "6. Dedicated per-ticker (s6t+s6tc) -- 1,150 sims: a compacted independent per-coin grid plus calibrate twins (the standing branch from Config Watch #2).", "7. OOS replays (s4cw8+s4cw8o+s4cw7+s4cw7o+s4cw6+s4cw6o+s4cw5+s4cw5o+s4cw4+s4cw4o+s4cwm1+s4cwm1o+s4cw3+s4cw3o+s4cw2+s4cw2o+s4cw1+s4pre) -- 155 sims: every published card and all four live presets, verbatim, on both windows of this collect, plus origin re-runs of the cards of issue #8, issue #7, issue #6, issue #5, issue #4, Monthly #1, issue #3 and issue #2 for the drift baseline." ], "note": "Total 11,075 simulations, 0 errors, 1,686 zero-trade cells; stage sums reconcile exactly inside the collect. The stage-2 grid is 4,176 cells on this window against 4,112 on Monthly Config Watch #1's. Equity series, the grid histogram, the baselines and the calibrate pack are produced inside the same collect -- there is no separate extras pass.", "stake_note": "A $1,000 deposit cannot fund five concurrent $450 positions. Stake is a function of how many instruments the config trades, recomputed on every universe change and swept as its own axis; any simulated stake above the cap for its universe size is marked concentrated and excluded from the headline boards (it stays in the open data). Every card also prints skipped_nofunds -- entries the engine could not fund. Margin-skip alert rows on this window's leaders: 14, of the 28 the collect raised over its two windows; the other 14 are on its four-week board, which is not printed here.", "models_line": "Models under test (exact engine IDs): claude-fable-5, claude-opus-5, gpt-5.6-sol, deepseek-v4-pro, gemini-3.1-pro, qwen-3.8-max, grok-4.6. The grok axis runs as grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era) -- one lineage; both windows of this collect (Aug 31-Sep 28, 2026 and Sep 1-30, 2026) lie entirely after the grok-4.5 -> 4.6 cutover dated Aug 24 in the search plan, and published grok-4.5 configs replayed out-of-sample get the same 4.5 -> 4.6 lineage remap ([remap] rows)." }, "branches": { "MONTH": { "window": "Sep 1-30, 2026", "maturity_min_closed": 20, "mature_pool": 2967, "council_cards": [ { "rank": 1, "shortlink_code": "cwm2-m1", "sim_index": 7089, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "MONTH", "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "members_short": "fable, opus, gemini, qwen", "tokens": [ "BNB", "XRP" ], "n_coins": 2, "fh": "4h", "tf": "1h", "stake": 450, "concentrated": false, "calibrate": false, "knobs": { "ladder": "50:40,100:60", "be": true, "tp_shift": "-10", "sl_shift": "75", "min_conf": "60", "conf_mode": "each", "tp_sl_source": "farthest", "max_sideways": "2", "max_diff_side": "0", "same_side": "reenter", "opposite": "reverse", "trade_mode": "position", "time_stop": "none" }, "stats": { "net_usd": 1041.5484, "wr": 0.71134, "max_dd_pct": 37.7, "profit_factor": 1.587, "trades": 97, "closed": 97, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 436.5, "equity_usd": 2041.5484, "avg_win_usd": 40.8093, "avg_loss_usd": -63.3676 }, "n_days": 26, "smooth_r2": 0.796978, "ulcer": 9.562, "calmar_like": 27.6273, "by_symbol": [ { "symbol": "BNB", "net_usd": 213.4208, "closed": 47 }, { "symbol": "XRP", "net_usd": 828.1277, "closed": 50 } ], "funnel": { "slots": 372, "quorum": 97, "traded": 97 }, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BNB%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0" }, { "rank": 2, "shortlink_code": "cwm2-m2", "sim_index": 6969, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "MONTH", "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "members_short": "fable, opus, gemini, qwen", "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "n_coins": 2, "fh": "4h", "tf": "1h", "stake": 450, "concentrated": false, "calibrate": false, "knobs": { "ladder": "50:40,100:60", "be": true, "tp_shift": "-10", "sl_shift": "75", "min_conf": "60", "conf_mode": "each", "tp_sl_source": "farthest", "max_sideways": "2", "max_diff_side": "0", "same_side": "reenter", "opposite": "reverse", "trade_mode": "position", "time_stop": "none" }, "stats": { "net_usd": 1021.7461, "wr": 0.722222, "max_dd_pct": 47.7, "profit_factor": 1.5393, "trades": 90, "closed": 90, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 10, "fees_usd": 405.0, "equity_usd": 2021.7461, "avg_win_usd": 44.8691, "avg_loss_usd": -75.7898 }, "n_days": 24, "smooth_r2": 0.820873, "ulcer": 16.2612, "calmar_like": 21.4203, "by_symbol": [ { "symbol": "SOL", "net_usd": 46.1384, "closed": 43 }, { "symbol": "XRP", "net_usd": 975.6077, "closed": 47 } ], "funnel": { "slots": 372, "quorum": 100, "traded": 100 }, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0" } ], "solo_cards": [ { "rank": 1, "shortlink_code": "cwm2-s1", "sim_index": 9789, "stage": "s3b", "branch": "solo", "window": "MONTH", "members": [ "gemini-3.1-pro" ], "members_short": "gemini", "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "n_coins": 2, "fh": "4h", "tf": "1h", "stake": 450, "concentrated": false, "calibrate": true, "knobs": { "ladder": "50:40,100:60", "be": true, "tp_shift": "-10", "sl_shift": "75", "min_conf": "60", "conf_mode": "each", "tp_sl_source": "median", "max_sideways": "0", "max_diff_side": "0", "same_side": "reenter", "opposite": "reverse", "trade_mode": "position", "time_stop": "none" }, "stats": { "net_usd": 923.2359, "wr": 0.857843, "max_dd_pct": 33.0, "profit_factor": 1.5318, "trades": 204, "closed": 204, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 3, "fees_usd": 918.0, "equity_usd": 1923.2359, "avg_win_usd": 15.1964, "avg_loss_usd": -59.8665 }, "n_days": 31, "smooth_r2": 0.757438, "ulcer": 11.4571, "calmar_like": 27.9768, "by_symbol": [ { "symbol": "SOL", "net_usd": 688.6578, "closed": 106 }, { "symbol": "XRP", "net_usd": 234.5781, "closed": 98 } ], "funnel": { "slots": 372, "quorum": 207, "traded": 207 }, "query": "members=gemini-3.1-pro&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=0&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&calibrate=1" }, { "rank": 2, "shortlink_code": null, "sim_index": 9435, "stage": "s2", "branch": "solo", "window": "MONTH", "members": [ "grok-4.6" ], "members_short": "grok", "tokens": [ "BNB", "XRP" ], "n_coins": 2, "fh": "4h", "tf": "4h,1h", "stake": 450, "concentrated": false, "calibrate": false, "knobs": { "ladder": "50:40,100:60", "be": true, "tp_shift": "-10", "sl_shift": "75", "min_conf": "60", "conf_mode": "each", "tp_sl_source": "median", "max_sideways": "1", "max_diff_side": "0", "same_side": "reenter", "opposite": "reverse", "trade_mode": "position", "time_stop": "none" }, "stats": { "net_usd": 878.5257, "wr": 0.766355, "max_dd_pct": 29.9, "profit_factor": 1.5605, "trades": 107, "closed": 107, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 481.5, "equity_usd": 1878.5257, "avg_win_usd": 29.8275, "avg_loss_usd": -62.6932 }, "n_days": 27, "smooth_r2": 0.866537, "ulcer": 6.4329, "calmar_like": 29.3821, "by_symbol": [ { "symbol": "BNB", "net_usd": 371.0761, "closed": 54 }, { "symbol": "XRP", "net_usd": 507.4497, "closed": 53 } ], "funnel": { "slots": 372, "quorum": 107, "traded": 107 }, "query": "members=grok-4.6&fh=4h&tf=4h%2C1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BNB%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0" } ], "card_selection_note": "Two councils are published on this window. The mature net board's 10 slots carry 2 universes (BNB+XRP 5 and SOL+XRP 5); card #2 is the best mature multi-coin council outside card #1's universe -- it comes off the mature net board (+$1,021.7 on SOL+XRP, 47.7% maxDD, R2 0.821, 10 unfunded entries). Both councils are configurations Config Watch #8 published: card #1 is cw8-m302 and card #2 is cw8-m301, query for query, window aside, and their walk-forward rows below read the same numbers on the month.", "card_calibrate_note": "The two cards answer the calibrate axis the same way: no card is a calibrated cell (Calibrate axis below). Card #1 runs the $450 two-coin table stake and card #2 the $450 two-coin stake; card #1 carries no unfunded entry and card #2 10 unfunded entries, and card #1 draws down 37.7% on 97 closed trades against card #2's 47.7% on 90. The mature pool on this window is 2,967 configs against 2,911 on the four-week window of the same collect (30 days against 28) and 3,265 on calendar August.", "card_grid_note": "Against the 4,176-cell stage-2 grid on this window: card #1 is the same simulation as the raw net-board leader (i=7089) and the top cell of the grid; card #2 lands in the top bucket of the grid, +$1,000 to +$1,250 (2 cells). Grid median -$5.7, 117 of the 4,176 cells above +$500. Net % = net PnL as a percentage of the fixed $1,000 starting deposit; every simulation runs at 10x leverage (liquidation modeled by the engine). Entry = max_sideways / max_diff_side.", "card2_source_board": "mature net", "net_board_top10": [ { "i": 7089, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "MONTH", "is_oos": false, "origin": null, "calibrate": false, "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "BNB", "XRP" ], "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "concentrated": false, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BNB%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "stats": { "net_usd": 1041.5484, "wr": 0.71134, "max_dd_pct": 37.7, "profit_factor": 1.587, "trades": 97, "closed": 97, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 436.5, 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null, "calibrate": false, "members": [ "grok-4.6" ], "members_note": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era)", "tokens": [ "BNB", "XRP" ], "stake": 375, "n_coins": 2, "concentrated": false, "query": "members=grok-4.6&fh=4h&tf=4h%2C1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BNB%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=1&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=375&variant=v0", "stats": { "net_usd": 732.1048, "wr": 0.766355, "max_dd_pct": 24.9, "profit_factor": 1.5605, "trades": 107, "closed": 107, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 401.25, "equity_usd": 1732.1048, "avg_win_usd": 24.8563, "avg_loss_usd": -52.2443 }, "n_days": 27, "smooth_r2": 0.866537, "ulcer": 5.7727, "by_symbol": [ { "symbol": "BNB", "net_usd": 309.23, "closed": 54 }, { "symbol": "XRP", "net_usd": 422.8747, "closed": 53 } ], "funnel": { "slots": 372, "quorum": 107, "traded": 107 }, "flag_skipped": false, "calmar_like": 29.4018 } ], "solo_excluded_single_coin": [], "solo_note": "Two solo cards, one per model (gemini and grok); only #1 carries a short link. No single-coin row outranks it on that board this window. The card carries 3 unfunded entries (flagged * on Trades); the best mature solo row with no unfunded entry is solo card #2 (grok on BNB+XRP, +$878.5 on 107 closed).", "council_vs_solo": "Council vs solo. On this window the best solo sits below the best council (+$923.2 against +$1,041.5 on the mature boards), on 204 closed trades against 97, with a 33.0% drawdown against 37.7% and 3 unfunded entries against 0. Config Watch #8 measured the same comparison on its two windows: the council above the solo on the week, the council above the solo on the four weeks. Same in-sample caveats apply to both sides.", "cards_also_published_as": { "cwm2-m1": "cw8-m302", "cwm2-m2": "cw8-m301" } } }, "quality_boards": { "MONTH": { "maturity_min_closed": 20, "pool_mature": 2967, "calmar_top": [ { "i": 6592, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "MONTH", "is_oos": false, "origin": null, "calibrate": true, "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "concentrated": false, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&calibrate=1", "stats": { "net_usd": 582.3763, "wr": 0.933333, "max_dd_pct": 0.0, 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"claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "concentrated": false, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=4h%2C1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=3&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&calibrate=1", "stats": { "net_usd": 606.293, "wr": 0.914286, "max_dd_pct": 20.0, "profit_factor": 2.0482, "trades": 70, "closed": 70, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 315.0, "equity_usd": 1606.293, "avg_win_usd": 18.5108, "avg_loss_usd": -96.3998 }, "n_days": 20, "smooth_r2": 0.912923, "ulcer": 4.4843, "flag_skipped": false, "calmar_like": 30.3147, "quality_score": 80.25, "quality_ranks": { "net": 87, "calmar": 94, "wr": 35, "smooth_r2": 105 } }, { "i": 6980, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "MONTH", "is_oos": false, "origin": null, "calibrate": true, "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "concentrated": false, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=4h%2C1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&calibrate=1", "stats": { "net_usd": 606.293, "wr": 0.914286, "max_dd_pct": 20.0, "profit_factor": 2.0482, "trades": 70, "closed": 70, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 315.0, "equity_usd": 1606.293, "avg_win_usd": 18.5108, "avg_loss_usd": -96.3998 }, "n_days": 20, "smooth_r2": 0.912923, "ulcer": 4.4843, "flag_skipped": false, "calmar_like": 30.3147, "quality_score": 81.25, "quality_ranks": { "net": 88, "calmar": 95, "wr": 36, "smooth_r2": 106 } } ] } }, "definition": "Net PnL stays the primary board (continuity with the weekly series); four selection views sit on top of it at zero additional simulations. Calmar-like = net / max(maxDD, 1.0), positive net only; WR board = win rate among mature configs (>=20 closed); Smoothness = R2 of a linear fit through the daily closed-equity series, mature rows with net > 0 and at least 5 days, ties broken by ulcer index; Quality composite = mean rank over net, Calmar-like, win rate and R2, lower is better. R2 and the ulcer index are computed by the collect on the engine's daily settled-equity series: one point per day that settled a trade, from the first such day (the $1,000 start is not a point), index-spaced, the ulcer index over the running peak of those points -- so days without a settlement are compressed and a loss on the first settled day does not enter the ulcer index. Top-3 of each board below; all 15 rows of all four boards are in the open-data JSON.", "note": "[cal] = calibrate=ON cell; the board column names the window. The Calmar board is degenerate by construction -- its top rows sit at 0.0% maxDD, so the score collapses onto net PnL; read it as 'net among configs that barely drew down'. None of the 12 printed rows is a single-coin config, and all 12 are calibrated. The pool is 2,967 mature configs against 2,911 on the four-week window of the same collect and 3,265 on calendar August." }, "stability": { "definition": "present in the mature net top-40 of BOTH windows of the run that produced it -- this run is the month collect, whose two windows are M30 (Aug 31-Sep 28, 2026, the four weeks Config Watch #8 printed from its own night collect) and the calendar month (Sep 1-30, 2026), so the board reads 'stable across M30 and the calendar month'; the two windows share 27 days (Sep 1-27), Aug 31 lies in M30 only and Sep 28-30 in the month only, so neither contains the other; one of the two windows is this issue's own", "windows": [ "M30", "MONTH" ], "computed_in_collect": "month", "n_configs": 22, "n_councils": 18, "n_clean_both_windows": 5, "universes": { "SOL+XRP": 10, "BNB+XRP": 12 }, "note": "Stability, and what it is across this issue. The board is defined as presence in the mature net top-40 of BOTH windows of the run that computes it. That run is this issue's collect, whose two windows are the four-week Aug 31-Sep 28, 2026 and this calendar month, so the board reads stable across the four-week window and the calendar month -- one of the two windows is this issue's own; they share 27 days (Sep 1-27), Aug 31 lies in the four-week window only and Sep 28-30 in the month only, so neither contains the other and this is a persistence check across two largely overlapping windows, not a cross-period one. 22 configs qualify (under the collect's row cap of 25), on 2 universes (BNB+XRP 12 and SOL+XRP 10), 18 of them councils and 5 clean (zero unfunded entries on both windows). The top three by rank sum are council fable, opus, gemini, qwen (+$1,021.7); council fable, opus, gemini, qwen (+$1,041.5); council fable, opus, gemini, qwen (+$970.2). Monthly Config Watch #1 read the same pair of windows on calendar August from its own collect and held 25, the collect's row cap -- the comparable board; Config Watch #8's board (4 configurations) reads across WK and M30 and is not comparable. Full list in the open data.", "rows": [ { "signature": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=1h&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "windows": [ "M30", "MONTH" ], "branch": "council", "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "stake": 450, "calibrate": false, "rank_a": 1, "rank_b": 2, "by_window": { "M30": { "net_usd": 1018.5953, "wr": 0.725275, "max_dd_pct": 48.5, "profit_factor": 1.5376, "trades": 91, "closed": 91, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 11, "fees_usd": 409.5, "equity_usd": 2018.5953, "avg_win_usd": 44.1415, "avg_loss_usd": -75.7898, "smooth_r2": 0.824374, "ulcer": 17.9345 }, "MONTH": { "net_usd": 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One hand-tuned configuration is treated as the reference the search has to beat -- not on net PnL, where any large search wins by construction, but on the three properties a configuration is actually tuned for: win rate, shallow drawdown and a straight equity line. The reference (the hand-tuned anchor) is the live preset 1d_3_llm_BC2_v02, a 3-model 1d council on SOL+XRP at the $450 two-coin stake; it is distinct from the pre-search hand-tuned set A/B/C carried in Baselines below. Its replay row is in the walk-forward table above; here it is the yardstick.", "rule_note": "Beat rule (frozen with the criteria): a config beats the anchor only if it does so on all three at once -- win rate higher, maxDD lower and smoothness R2 higher -- among mature, non-concentrated search rows. Net PnL is not part of the rule; it is reported next to the winners so the cost of the improvement is visible.", "result": "679 of the 2,967 mature configs (22.9%) clear all three bars at once. The anchor's own month is -$600.5 net at 33.3% win rate with a 60.0% drawdown, an R2 of 0.610 and 6 closed trades. Of the ten best of those 679 by net, all ten beat the anchor on net PnL as well. 2 of the ten are calibrated cells, 8 are councils, all ten run the $450 stake and their universes are 2 coins. On the four-week window of the same collect the same rule admitted 1,083 of 2,911 configs (37.2%), and on calendar August (Monthly Config Watch #1) 12 of 3,265 (0.4%), so the share moves with the window: read it as one field at a time, not as a property of the anchor.", "MONTH": { "anchor": { "i": 1076, "stage": "s4pre", "branch": "council", "window": "MONTH", "is_oos": true, "origin": "owner_preset", "calibrate": false, "members": [ "gemini-3.1-pro", "gpt-5.6-sol", "deepseek-v4-pro" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "concentrated": false, "query": "members=gemini-3.1-pro%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=nearest&trade_mode=position&same_side=update&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=3x&steps=40%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=30&sl_shift=50&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "stats": { "net_usd": -600.462, "wr": 0.333333, "max_dd_pct": 60.0, "profit_factor": 0.1814, "trades": 6, "closed": 6, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 22, "fees_usd": 27.0, "equity_usd": 399.538, "avg_win_usd": 66.519, "avg_loss_usd": -183.375 }, "n_days": 6, "smooth_r2": 0.610272, "ulcer": 35.0414, "by_symbol": [ { "symbol": "SOL", "net_usd": -289.116, "closed": 3 }, { "symbol": "XRP", "net_usd": -311.346, "closed": 3 } ], "funnel": { "slots": 62, "quorum": 46, "traded": 46 }, "flag_skipped": true }, "n_beat_all_three": 679, "pool_mature": 2967, "share_beating": 0.22885069093360297, "top10_better_on_all_three": [ { "i": 7089, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "MONTH", "is_oos": false, "origin": null, "calibrate": false, "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "BNB", "XRP" ], "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "concentrated": false, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BNB%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "stats": { "net_usd": 1041.5484, "wr": 0.71134, "max_dd_pct": 37.7, "profit_factor": 1.587, "trades": 97, "closed": 97, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 436.5, "equity_usd": 2041.5484, "avg_win_usd": 40.8093, "avg_loss_usd": -63.3676 }, "n_days": 26, "smooth_r2": 0.796978, "ulcer": 9.562, "flag_skipped": false, "calmar_like": 27.6273 }, { "i": 6969, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "MONTH", "is_oos": false, "origin": null, "calibrate": false, "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "concentrated": false, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "stats": { "net_usd": 1021.7461, "wr": 0.722222, "max_dd_pct": 47.7, "profit_factor": 1.5393, "trades": 90, "closed": 90, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 10, "fees_usd": 405.0, "equity_usd": 2021.7461, "avg_win_usd": 44.8691, "avg_loss_usd": -75.7898 }, "n_days": 24, "smooth_r2": 0.820873, "ulcer": 16.2612, "flag_skipped": true, "calmar_like": 21.4203 }, { "i": 6965, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "MONTH", "is_oos": false, "origin": null, "calibrate": false, "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "concentrated": false, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=3&max_diff_side=1&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "stats": { "net_usd": 970.2013, "wr": 0.710526, "max_dd_pct": 52.6, "profit_factor": 1.4107, "trades": 114, "closed": 114, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 13, "fees_usd": 513.0, "equity_usd": 1970.2013, "avg_win_usd": 41.1423, "avg_loss_usd": -71.5855 }, "n_days": 29, "smooth_r2": 0.75978, "ulcer": 19.5058, "flag_skipped": true, "calmar_like": 18.4449 }, { "i": 7409, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "MONTH", "is_oos": false, "origin": null, "calibrate": false, "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "gpt-5.6-sol", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "concentrated": false, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=3&max_diff_side=1&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "stats": { "net_usd": 960.8178, "wr": 0.697842, "max_dd_pct": 37.2, "profit_factor": 1.3697, "trades": 139, "closed": 139, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 17, "fees_usd": 625.5, "equity_usd": 1960.8178, "avg_win_usd": 36.6953, "avg_loss_usd": -61.8721 }, "n_days": 31, "smooth_r2": 0.762533, "ulcer": 15.5654, "flag_skipped": true, "calmar_like": 25.8284 }, { "i": 6963, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "MONTH", "is_oos": false, "origin": null, "calibrate": false, "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "concentrated": false, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=3&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "stats": { "net_usd": 937.8651, "wr": 0.707965, "max_dd_pct": 52.6, "profit_factor": 1.397, "trades": 113, "closed": 113, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 13, "fees_usd": 508.5, "equity_usd": 1937.8651, "avg_win_usd": 41.2523, "avg_loss_usd": -71.5855 }, "n_days": 29, "smooth_r2": 0.757181, "ulcer": 19.544, "flag_skipped": true, "calmar_like": 17.8301 }, { "i": 6057, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "MONTH", "is_oos": false, "origin": null, "calibrate": false, "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gpt-5.6-sol", "grok-4.6" ], "members_note": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era)", "tokens": [ "BNB", "XRP" ], "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "concentrated": false, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cgrok-4.6&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BNB%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "stats": { "net_usd": 937.3991, "wr": 0.785714, "max_dd_pct": 18.7, "profit_factor": 1.6704, "trades": 98, "closed": 98, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 441.0, "equity_usd": 1937.3991, "avg_win_usd": 30.334, "avg_loss_usd": -66.5865 }, "n_days": 28, "smooth_r2": 0.822867, "ulcer": 4.4156, "flag_skipped": false, "calmar_like": 50.1283 }, { "i": 9789, "stage": "s3b", "branch": "solo", "window": "MONTH", "is_oos": false, "origin": null, "calibrate": true, "members": [ "gemini-3.1-pro" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "concentrated": false, "query": "members=gemini-3.1-pro&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=0&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&calibrate=1", "stats": { "net_usd": 923.2359, "wr": 0.857843, "max_dd_pct": 33.0, "profit_factor": 1.5318, "trades": 204, "closed": 204, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 3, "fees_usd": 918.0, "equity_usd": 1923.2359, "avg_win_usd": 15.1964, "avg_loss_usd": -59.8665 }, "n_days": 31, "smooth_r2": 0.757438, "ulcer": 11.4571, "flag_skipped": true, "calmar_like": 27.9768 }, { "i": 9792, "stage": "s3b", "branch": "solo", "window": "MONTH", "is_oos": false, "origin": null, "calibrate": true, "members": [ "gemini-3.1-pro" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "concentrated": false, "query": "members=gemini-3.1-pro&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=0&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&calibrate=1", "stats": { "net_usd": 923.2359, "wr": 0.857843, "max_dd_pct": 33.0, "profit_factor": 1.5318, "trades": 204, "closed": 204, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 3, "fees_usd": 918.0, "equity_usd": 1923.2359, "avg_win_usd": 15.1964, "avg_loss_usd": -59.8665 }, "n_days": 31, "smooth_r2": 0.757438, "ulcer": 11.4571, "flag_skipped": true, "calmar_like": 27.9768 }, { "i": 5819, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "MONTH", "is_oos": false, "origin": null, "calibrate": false, "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gpt-5.6-sol", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "BNB", "XRP" ], "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "concentrated": false, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BNB%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "stats": { "net_usd": 923.0103, "wr": 0.795455, "max_dd_pct": 28.1, "profit_factor": 1.7887, "trades": 88, "closed": 88, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 396.0, "equity_usd": 1923.0103, "avg_win_usd": 29.905, "avg_loss_usd": -65.0188 }, "n_days": 26, "smooth_r2": 0.821563, "ulcer": 7.6899, "flag_skipped": false, "calmar_like": 32.8473 }, { "i": 7407, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "MONTH", "is_oos": false, "origin": null, "calibrate": false, "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "gpt-5.6-sol", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "concentrated": false, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=3&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "stats": { "net_usd": 913.5783, "wr": 0.693431, "max_dd_pct": 37.2, "profit_factor": 1.3503, "trades": 137, "closed": 137, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 18, "fees_usd": 616.5, "equity_usd": 1913.5783, "avg_win_usd": 37.0725, "avg_loss_usd": -62.1027 }, "n_days": 31, "smooth_r2": 0.755442, "ulcer": 15.7277, "flag_skipped": true, "calmar_like": 24.5586 } ], "top10_also_beating_on_net": 10 } }, "oos_walk_forward": { "note": "OWNER PRESETS FIRST, then the CW#8 champions (cw8-* shortlinks, edge 2026-09-28 00:00) replayed on the Monthly CW#2 window(s) M30,MONTH -- month mode: M30 = CW#8's four weeks (edge 2026-09-28 00:00) = the origin window of cw8-m301/m302, MONTH = calendar September (edge 2026-10-01 00:00); the origin week of cw8-wk1/wk2/s1 (21.09..28.09) lies inside both, only MONTH's 28.09..30.09 slots are past the CW#8 edge. Replayed UNCHANGED (verbatim stake; grok members lineage-remapped 4.5->4.6 where flagged). origin_live = the origin window on TODAY'S engine (drift baseline, snapshot principle). Each cell carries smooth_r2/ulcer alongside net/wr/dd.", "oos_windows": { "MONTH": { "from": "2026-09-01", "to": "2026-10-01" } }, "n_rows": 57, "past_cards_survived": 17, "past_cards_positive_on_month": 17, "past_cards_positive_by_window": { "MONTH": 17 }, "past_cards_total": 53, "cohort_survived": { "cw8": "2/5", "cw7": "4/5", "cw6": "4/5", "cw5": "2/4", "cw4": "2/5", "cwm1": "1/3", "cw3": "0/6", "cw2": "0/8", "cw1": "2/12" }, "cohort_positive_by_window": { "MONTH": { "cw8": "2/5", "cw7": "4/5", "cw6": "4/5", "cw5": "2/4", "cw4": "2/5", "cwm1": "1/3", "cw3": "0/6", "cw2": "0/8", "cw1": "2/12" } }, "presets_survived": "0/4", "presets_positive_on_month": "0/4", "presets_positive_by_window": { "MONTH": "0/4" }, "verdict_rule": "Verdict rule, on the one window this issue has. Survived = net-positive on the calendar month; Faded = net-negative. It is the standing rule (net-positive on every fresh window) with one window in it, and it is therefore easier to pass than the two-window version Config Watch #2 to #8 applied. The column is not pure out-of-sample either: the month shares days with the search windows of issue-8, issue-7, issue-6 and issue-5 (days inside the month: issue-8's 28-day window 27 and 7-day window 7; issue-7's 28-day window 20 and 7-day window 7; issue-6's 28-day window 13 and 7-day window 7; issue-5's 28-day window 6 and 7-day window 6), so for those 19 rows the number a card shows here is partly scored on the days it was selected on; the search windows of issue-4, Monthly-1, issue-3, issue-2 and issue-1 share no day with it. Read the column as decay context over a 30-day window.", "rows": [ { "kind": "owner_preset", "code": "preset_4h4", "cohort": "preset", "label": "preset_4h4 '4h_4_llm_v02'", "branch": "council", "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "qwen-3.8-max", "deepseek-v4-pro", "claude-opus-5" ], "tokens": [ "ETH", "SOL" ], "n_coins": 2, "stake": 450, "concentrated_by_stake_table": false, "lineage_remap": false, "home_net": null, "home_issue": null, "signature": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cqwen-3.8-max%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cclaude-opus-5&fh=4h&tf=1h&tokens=ETH%2CSOL&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=update&opposite=close&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=10&sl_shift=60&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "oos": { "MONTH": { "net_usd": -20.3552, "wr": 0.697674, "max_dd_pct": 42.9, "profit_factor": 0.9835, "trades": 43, "closed": 43, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 4, 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"members=gemini-3.1-pro&fh=1h&tf=1h&tokens=XRP%2CBNB&conf_mode=each&min_conf=0&max_sideways=0&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&same_side=keep&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=100%3A100&steps_on=0&be=0&tp_shift=10&sl_shift=20&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "oos": { "MONTH": { "net_usd": -94.0585, "wr": 0.378505, "max_dd_pct": 144.9, "profit_factor": 0.9847, "trades": 214, "closed": 214, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 12, "fees_usd": 963.0, "equity_usd": 905.9415, "avg_win_usd": 74.6079, "avg_loss_usd": -46.1451, "smooth_r2": 0.261243, "ulcer": 22.8072, "n_days": 32 } }, "oos_other_window_this_collect": { "M30": { "net_usd": 406.9277, "wr": 0.396226, "max_dd_pct": 90.0, "profit_factor": 1.0711, "trades": 212, "closed": 212, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 2, "fees_usd": 954.0, "equity_usd": 1406.9277, "avg_win_usd": 73.0142, "avg_loss_usd": -44.7364, "smooth_r2": 0.585268, "ulcer": 15.4654, "n_days": 30 } }, "origin_live": null, "verdict": "Faded" }, { "kind": "cw1", "code": "cw1-7ds2", "cohort": "cw1", "label": "cw1:cw1-7ds2", "branch": "solo", "members": [ "gpt-5.6-sol" ], "tokens": [ "XRP", "BNB" ], "n_coins": 2, "stake": 450, "concentrated_by_stake_table": false, "lineage_remap": false, "home_net": 366.3, "home_issue": "issue #1", "signature": "members=gpt-5.6-sol&fh=4h&tf=1h&tokens=XRP%2CBNB&conf_mode=each&min_conf=0&max_sideways=0&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&same_side=update&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=30%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=10&sl_shift=50&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "oos": { "MONTH": { "net_usd": -506.7036, "wr": 0.724138, "max_dd_pct": 81.6, "profit_factor": 0.7614, "trades": 116, "closed": 116, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 28, "fees_usd": 522.0, "equity_usd": 493.2964, "avg_win_usd": 19.2515, "avg_loss_usd": -66.3696, "smooth_r2": 0.20534, "ulcer": 32.067, "n_days": 31 } }, "oos_other_window_this_collect": { "M30": { "net_usd": -501.8387, "wr": 0.723214, "max_dd_pct": 75.8, "profit_factor": 0.7546, "trades": 112, "closed": 112, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 24, "fees_usd": 504.0, "equity_usd": 498.1613, "avg_win_usd": 19.0462, "avg_loss_usd": -65.9542, "smooth_r2": 0.101081, "ulcer": 29.3268, "n_days": 30 } }, "origin_live": null, "verdict": "Faded" }, { "kind": "cw1", "code": "cw1-7ds3", "cohort": "cw1", "label": "cw1:cw1-7ds3", "branch": "solo", "members": [ "qwen-3.8-max" ], "tokens": [ "XRP", "BNB" ], "n_coins": 2, "stake": 450, "concentrated_by_stake_table": false, "lineage_remap": false, "home_net": 267.0, "home_issue": "issue #1", "signature": "members=qwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=4h&tokens=XRP%2CBNB&conf_mode=each&min_conf=0&max_sideways=0&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&same_side=update&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=3x&steps=100%3A100&steps_on=0&be=0&tp_shift=10&sl_shift=-10&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "oos": { "MONTH": { "net_usd": -594.642, "wr": 0.344444, "max_dd_pct": 75.6, "profit_factor": 0.7751, "trades": 90, "closed": 90, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 45, "fees_usd": 405.0, "equity_usd": 405.358, "avg_win_usd": 66.1159, "avg_loss_usd": -44.8175, "smooth_r2": 0.489624, "ulcer": 31.5701, "n_days": 25 } }, "oos_other_window_this_collect": { "M30": { "net_usd": -555.2109, "wr": 0.337349, "max_dd_pct": 55.5, "profit_factor": 0.7785, "trades": 83, "closed": 83, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 45, "fees_usd": 373.5, "equity_usd": 444.7891, "avg_win_usd": 69.7099, "avg_loss_usd": -45.5834, "smooth_r2": 0.280373, "ulcer": 24.9126, "n_days": 27 } }, "origin_live": null, "verdict": "Faded" } ], "verdicts": { "preset_4h4": "Faded", "preset_bc2": "Faded", "preset_sol": "Faded", "preset_xrp": "Faded", "cw8-m301": "Survived", "cw8-m302": "Survived", "cw8-s1": "Faded", "cw8-wk1": "Faded", "cw8-wk2": "Faded", "cw7-m301": "Survived", "cw7-m302": "Survived", "cw7-s1": "Survived", "cw7-wk1": "Survived", "cw7-wk2": "Faded", "cw6-m301": "Survived", "cw6-m302": "Faded", "cw6-s1": "Survived", "cw6-wk1": "Survived", "cw6-wk2": "Survived", "cw5-m301": "Faded", "cw5-s1": "Faded", "cw5-wk1": "Survived", "cw5-wk2": "Survived", "cw4-m301": "Faded", "cw4-m302": "Faded", "cw4-s1": "Faded", "cw4-wk1": "Survived", "cw4-wk2": "Survived", "cwm1-m1": "Faded", "cwm1-m2": "Survived", "cwm1-s1": "Faded", "cw3-m301": "Faded", "cw3-m302": "Faded", "cw3-s1": "Faded", "cw3-s2": "Faded", "cw3-wk1": "Faded", "cw3-wk2": "Faded", "cw2-30d1": "Faded", "cw2-30d2": "Faded", "cw2-30d3": "Faded", "cw2-30ds1": "Faded", "cw2-7d1": "Faded", "cw2-7d2": "Faded", "cw2-pt1": "Faded", "cw2-pt2": "Faded", "cw1-30d1": "Faded", "cw1-30d2": "Faded", "cw1-30d3": "Faded", "cw1-30ds1": "Survived", "cw1-30ds2": "Faded", "cw1-30ds3": "Faded", "cw1-7d1": "Survived", "cw1-7d2": "Faded", "cw1-7d3": "Faded", "cw1-7ds1": "Faded", "cw1-7ds2": "Faded", "cw1-7ds3": "Faded" }, "verdict_summary": { "past_cards_survived": 17, "past_cards_total": 53, "presets_survived": 0, "config_watch_8_read_of_the_same_48": "10 survived both of its windows; 24 positive on its week, 16 on its four weeks", "config_watch_8_survivors_positive_here": "7/10", "config_watch_8_faded_positive_here": "8/38" }, "home_nets": { "note": "Net the card's origin issue printed: issue #8's own tables for cw8-*, every older cohort as carried by Config Watch #8.", "values": { "cw2-30d1": 744.7, "cw2-30d2": 655.1, "cw2-30d3": 489.1, "cw2-30ds1": 383.8, "cw2-7d1": 299.1, "cw2-7d2": 223.7, "cw2-pt1": 698.3, "cw2-pt2": 543.7, "cw1-30d1": 868.4, "cw1-30d2": 590.6, "cw1-30d3": 580.5, "cw1-30ds1": 442.8, "cw1-30ds2": 262.9, "cw1-30ds3": 119.0, "cw1-7d1": 439.2, "cw1-7d2": 429.5, "cw1-7d3": 398.6, "cw1-7ds1": 417.8, "cw1-7ds2": 366.3, "cw1-7ds3": 267.0, "cw3-wk1": 2175.106, "cw3-wk2": 837.6111, "cw3-m301": 2137.5657, "cw3-m302": 412.3182, "cw3-s1": 1604.2534, "cw3-s2": 1449.0352, "cw4-wk1": 399.4305, "cw4-wk2": 128.2119, "cw4-s1": 324.9926, "cw4-m301": 1676.0424, "cw4-m302": 1155.2491, "cwm1-m1": 1618.4296, "cwm1-m2": 756.6474, "cwm1-s1": 1721.9232, "cw5-wk1": 510.3687, "cw5-wk2": 183.5378, "cw5-s1": 178.7019, "cw5-m301": 1717.0637, "cw6-wk1": 609.5201, "cw6-wk2": 135.3757, "cw6-s1": 404.7878, "cw6-m301": 1793.755, "cw6-m302": 547.8351, "cw7-wk1": 1467.8367, "cw7-wk2": 953.2189, "cw7-s1": 1022.0131, "cw7-m301": 1351.7581, "cw7-m302": 528.4233, "cw8-wk1": 583.3534, "cw8-wk2": 570.5819, "cw8-s1": 445.4209, "cw8-m301": 1018.5953, "cw8-m302": 943.0362 } }, "drift_baseline": { "note": "Origin re-runs (drift baseline). Re-simulating the issue-8 cards on their OWN origin windows in this collect lands within -$162.0..$0.0 of the numbers issue #8 printed: 3 of the 5 reproduce to the cent. The issue-7 cards drift -$175.6..$0.0 (1 of 5 to the cent). The largest gap is cw7-m302 (+$528.4 printed, +$352.8 on the re-run). Snapshot principle: no past issue is restated; the full drift table is in the open data.", "rows": [ { "code": "cw8-m301", "cohort": "cw8", "home_net": 1018.5953, "origin_live_net": 1018.5953, "delta": 0.0, "closed": 91, "skipped_nofunds": 11, "window": "2026-08-31..2026-09-28" }, { "code": "cw8-m302", "cohort": "cw8", "home_net": 943.0362, "origin_live_net": 943.0362, "delta": 0.0, "closed": 99, "skipped_nofunds": 1, "window": "2026-08-31..2026-09-28" }, { "code": "cw8-s1", "cohort": "cw8", "home_net": 445.4209, "origin_live_net": 283.4209, "delta": -162.0, "closed": 51, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "window": "2026-09-21..2026-09-28" }, { "code": "cw8-wk1", "cohort": "cw8", "home_net": 583.3534, "origin_live_net": 583.3534, "delta": 0.0, "closed": 41, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "window": "2026-09-21..2026-09-28" }, { "code": "cw8-wk2", "cohort": "cw8", "home_net": 570.5819, "origin_live_net": 408.5819, "delta": -162.0, "closed": 39, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "window": "2026-09-21..2026-09-28" }, { "code": "cw7-m301", "cohort": "cw7", "home_net": 1351.7581, "origin_live_net": 1189.7581, "delta": -162.0, "closed": 146, "skipped_nofunds": 1, "window": "2026-08-24..2026-09-21" }, { "code": "cw7-m302", "cohort": "cw7", "home_net": 528.4233, "origin_live_net": 352.836, "delta": -175.58730000000003, "closed": 26, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "window": "2026-08-24..2026-09-21" }, { "code": "cw7-s1", "cohort": "cw7", "home_net": 1022.0131, "origin_live_net": 887.0131, "delta": -135.0, "closed": 62, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "window": "2026-09-14..2026-09-21" }, { "code": "cw7-wk1", "cohort": "cw7", "home_net": 1467.8367, "origin_live_net": 1305.8367, "delta": -162.0, "closed": 61, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "window": "2026-09-14..2026-09-21" }, { "code": "cw7-wk2", "cohort": "cw7", "home_net": 953.2189, "origin_live_net": 953.2189, "delta": 0.0, "closed": 37, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "window": "2026-09-14..2026-09-21" } ] }, "presets_note": "The four live presets lead the table by standing rule. On the month: sol -$60.8 on 52 closed, xrp -$387.0 on 1 closed, bc2 -$600.5 on 6 closed, 4h4 -$20.4 on 43 closed -- none of the four net-positive, where Config Watch #8 recorded 2/4 on its fresh week and Monthly Config Watch #1 4/4 on calendar August. sol and xrp are marked [conc]: both run a $900 stake on a single coin, twice the $450 cap the stake table sets for a 1-coin universe, so their printed economics assume funding this issue's own rule would not grant. The bc2 row is also this issue's hand-tuned anchor (section below) and its -$600.5 is the same simulation on both sides of the report.", "summary": "Counted: 17 of 53 past cards are net-positive on the calendar month (calendar August: 20 of 26) -- by cohort 2 of 5 issue-8 cards, 4 of 5 issue-7 cards, 4 of 5 issue-6 cards, 2 of 4 issue-5 cards, 2 of 5 issue-4 cards, 1 of 3 Monthly-1 cards, 0 of 6 issue-3 cards, 0 of 8 issue-2 cards, 2 of 12 issue-1 cards. Config Watch #8 read 48 of these cards (all but its own 5) on two windows that lie mostly inside this one: 24 of 48 on its fresh week, 16 of 48 on its four weeks, 10 surviving both. 7 of the 10 of those survivors are net-positive here, and so are 8 of its 38 faded cards. On this collect's own four-week window the 53 past cards read 20. The best replay is cw5-wk1 at +$1,085.3 on 280 closed trades and the worst cw3-s1 at -$763.1 on 66. Live presets: 0 of 4 net-positive on the month (calendar August: 4/4), 0 of 4 survived both of Config Watch #8's windows.", "column_note": "What this column is. 17 of 53 past cards are net-positive over 30 days. Three measured facts bound the reading. The window overlaps the cards' own: four of the nine cohorts searched on days inside it (19 rows). The rows Config Watch #8 dropped on its two-window rule did not all lose here: 8 of its 38 faded cards are net-positive on the month, and 7 of its 10 survivors. And the fresh search moved with them: the search grid's month ceiling is +$1,041.5 against +$1,018.6 on the four-week window of this collect and +$583.4 on Config Watch #8's fresh week, all three from the same engine and the same criteria. The month is a longer window, not a cleaner one.", "table_note": "n in parentheses; * = fewer than 10 closed trades (insufficient cell); + = non-zero skipped_nofunds (entries the engine could not fund -- the printed economics are then not the economics that ran). Home = the number the card's origin issue printed; the live presets have no home issue. [conc] = stake above this issue's cap for its universe size; [remap] = grok-4.5 replayed on the grok-4.6 lineage. Verdict rule: Survived = net-positive on the calendar month. Survivors are tinted green.", "other_window_this_collect": { "window": { "key": "M30", "from": "2026-08-31", "to": "2026-09-28", "label": "Aug 31-Sep 28, 2026" }, "past_cards_positive": 20, "presets_positive": "1/4", "cohort_positive": { "cw8": "3/5", "cw7": "4/5", "cw6": "3/5", "cw5": "2/4", "cw4": "3/5", "cwm1": "0/3", "cw3": "0/6", "cw2": "1/8", "cw1": "4/12" } }, "cohort_origin_days_in_month": { "cw8": [ { "window": "2026-08-31..2026-09-28", "days": 28, "in_month": 27 }, { "window": "2026-09-21..2026-09-28", "days": 7, "in_month": 7 } ], "cw7": [ { "window": "2026-08-24..2026-09-21", "days": 28, "in_month": 20 }, { "window": "2026-09-14..2026-09-21", "days": 7, "in_month": 7 } ], "cw6": [ { "window": "2026-08-17..2026-09-14", "days": 28, "in_month": 13 }, { "window": "2026-09-07..2026-09-14", "days": 7, "in_month": 7 } ], "cw5": [ { "window": "2026-08-10..2026-09-07", "days": 28, "in_month": 6 }, { "window": "2026-08-31..2026-09-07", "days": 7, "in_month": 6 } ] }, "publication_dates": { "by_cohort": { "cw8": "2026-10-01", "cw7": "2026-09-23", "cw6": "2026-09-16", "cw5": "2026-09-09", "cw4": "2026-09-04", "cwm1": "2026-09-04", "cw3": "2026-08-26", "cw2": "2026-08-19", "cw1": "2026-08-13" }, "published_before_window_start": [ "cw3", "cw2", "cw1" ], "pre_month_cards_positive_on_month": "2/26", "published_inside_or_after_window": [ "cw8", "cw7", "cw6", "cw5", "cw4", "cwm1" ], "note": "a card's days inside the month before its own issue was published are not a forward test of a published card; dates are each issue's issue_date (issues 1-3 from Monthly Config Watch #1's survival rows)" }, "distinct_configurations": { "cards": 53, "distinct_signatures": 51, "shared_signature_groups": [ [ "cwm1-s1", "cw3-s2" ], [ "cw3-m301", "cw3-wk1" ] ], "note": "frozen query signature with the window fields removed" }, "open_positions_at_collect": { "collect_stamp": "2026-10-02T17:14:05Z", "hours_after_window_edge": 41, "published_cards_open": 0, "replay_cells_total": 114, "replay_cells_with_open_position": [ { "code": "cw8-s1", "window": "MONTH", "open": 1 }, { "code": "cw7-s1", "window": "MONTH", "open": 1 }, { "code": "cw5-s1", "window": "MONTH", "open": 1 }, { "code": "cw4-m301", "window": "MONTH", "open": 1 }, { "code": "cw4-m301", "window": "M30", "open": 1 }, { "code": "cw2-30d2", "window": "MONTH", "open": 1 }, { "code": "cw2-30d3", "window": "MONTH", "open": 1 }, { "code": "cw2-30d3", "window": "M30", "open": 1 } ], "note": "stats.open of the replay cell: positions still open when the collect ran; the maxDD and net the engine prints are taken as the engine reports them" } }, "calibrate_effect": { "intro": "Matched pairs -- identical knobs, calibration OFF vs ON -- measured on net PnL. This issue reports two different measurements and does not pool them: the whole stage-2 grid of the calendar month (every matched pair the search produced) and the board-leader slice (pairs whose OFF or ON leg reached the top of a board). They answer different questions.", "note": "On this window the axis is positive in the population and negative at the top. Calibration improves 65.6% of the 1,446 matched pairs on the whole grid (mean +$218.4, median +$162.3) and 75.2% of the 719 mature pairs (mean +$197.8). On the board-leader slice it improves 14.3% of 14 pairs (mean -$413.3, median -$508.0): the OFF legs there are at a median of +$918.3 and the ON legs at +$455.7, and all 14 ON legs are still net-positive, so the slice measures size given up, not losses created. The same axis on the other window of this collect improved 65.1% of its pairs, on Config Watch #8's fresh week 36.5% and on calendar August (Monthly Config Watch #1) 37.9%. Where the axis reached the cards is visible above: no council card is a calibrated cell while solo card #1 is, and 31 of the 49 finalists run it.", "export_note": "The open-data pack also carries a 196-pair export for this window. Its delta distribution is not the population's (median +$766.5 against the grid's +$162.3), so no claim in this section is computed from it; it is published for inspection only.", "overview": { "MONTH": { "label": "MONTH whole grid", "n_pairs": 1446, "mean_delta_net": 218.42, "median_delta_net": 162.33, "share_improved": 0.6556, "min_delta_net": -1024.24, "max_delta_net": 1263.49 } }, "overview_mature": { "MONTH": { "label": "MONTH mature only", "n_pairs": 719, "mean_delta_net": 197.78, "median_delta_net": 203.44, "share_improved": 0.7524, "min_delta_net": -1024.24, "max_delta_net": 1104.42 } }, "top_slice_agg": { "MONTH": { "n": 14, "wins": 2, "win_share": 0.14285714285714285, "mean": -413.2762928571428, "median": -508.0229999999999, "best": 200.56180000000006, "worst": -670.0799, "mature": 14, "cal0_median": 918.2943, "cal1_median": 455.74345, "cal1_pos": 14 } }, "top_slice": { "MONTH": [ { "window": "MONTH", "signature": 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"members=gpt-5.6-sol%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cqwen-3.8-max%2Cgrok-4.6&fh=1d&tf=1d&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "branch": "council", "stage": "s2/s2", "members": [ "gpt-5.6-sol", "deepseek-v4-pro", "qwen-3.8-max", "grok-4.6" ], "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "cal0": { "net_usd": -680.5708, "wr": 0.428571, "trades": 7, "profit_factor": 0.1993, "max_dd_pct": 72.7, "skipped_nofunds": 20 }, "cal1": { "net_usd": -59.477, "wr": 0.75, "trades": 24, "profit_factor": 0.9092, "max_dd_pct": 27.2, "skipped_nofunds": 3 }, "delta_net": 621.0938, "mature": false }, { "window": "MONTH", "signature": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cgrok-4.6&fh=4h&tf=4h%2C1h&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=200&variant=v0", "branch": "council", "stage": "s2/s2", "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gpt-5.6-sol", "grok-4.6" ], "tokens": [ "BTC", "ETH", "SOL", "BNB", "XRP" ], "cal0": { "net_usd": -428.4754, "wr": 0.648276, "trades": 145, "profit_factor": 0.7639, "max_dd_pct": 48.7, "skipped_nofunds": 13 }, "cal1": { "net_usd": 187.4142, "wr": 0.878981, "trades": 157, "profit_factor": 1.3244, "max_dd_pct": 15.7, "skipped_nofunds": 1 }, "delta_net": 615.8896, "mature": true } ], "exported_pairs_agg": { "n": 196, "median": 766.4856500000001, "min": -1024.2437, "max": 1263.4889 }, "pooling_note": "The whole-grid rows and the board-leader slice are two different measurements and are never pooled with each other." }, "per_ticker_best": { "MONTH": [ { "rank": 0, "shortlink_code": null, "sim_index": 8601, "stage": "s2", "branch": "solo", "window": "MONTH", "members": [ "gpt-5.6-sol" ], "members_short": "gpt", "tokens": [ "BTC" ], "n_coins": 1, "fh": "4h", "tf": "4h,1h", "stake": 450, "concentrated": false, "calibrate": false, "knobs": { "ladder": "50:40,100:60", "be": true, "tp_shift": "-10", "sl_shift": "75", "min_conf": "70", "conf_mode": "each", "tp_sl_source": "farthest", "max_sideways": "1", "max_diff_side": "0", "same_side": "reenter", "opposite": "reverse", "trade_mode": "position", "time_stop": "none" }, "stats": { "net_usd": 187.0744, "wr": 0.785714, "max_dd_pct": 7.1, "profit_factor": 1.7971, "trades": 28, "closed": 28, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 126.0, "equity_usd": 1187.0744, "avg_win_usd": 19.1712, "avg_loss_usd": -39.1155 }, "n_days": 16, "smooth_r2": 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"tp_sl_source": "median", "max_sideways": "1", "max_diff_side": "0", "same_side": "reenter", "opposite": "reverse", "trade_mode": "position", "time_stop": "none" }, "stats": { "net_usd": 376.0286, "wr": 0.777778, "max_dd_pct": 8.1, "profit_factor": 3.5886, "trades": 18, "closed": 18, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 81.0, "equity_usd": 1376.0286, "avg_win_usd": 37.235, "avg_loss_usd": -36.3155 }, "n_days": 13, "smooth_r2": 0.956828, "ulcer": 0.3437, "calmar_like": 46.4233, "by_symbol": [ { "symbol": "ETH", "net_usd": 376.0286, "closed": 18 } ], "funnel": { "slots": 31, "quorum": 18, "traded": 18 }, "query": "members=deepseek-v4-pro&fh=1d&tf=1d%2C4h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=ETH&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "coin": 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"median", "max_sideways": "1", "max_diff_side": "0", "same_side": "reenter", "opposite": "reverse", "trade_mode": "position", "time_stop": "none" }, "stats": { "net_usd": 371.0761, "wr": 0.777778, "max_dd_pct": 19.5, "profit_factor": 1.6345, "trades": 54, "closed": 54, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 243.0, "equity_usd": 1371.0761, "avg_win_usd": 22.7608, "avg_loss_usd": -48.7398 }, "n_days": 23, "smooth_r2": 0.574374, "ulcer": 5.6764, "calmar_like": 19.0295, "by_symbol": [ { "symbol": "BNB", "net_usd": 371.0761, "closed": 54 } ], "funnel": { "slots": 186, "quorum": 54, "traded": 54 }, "query": "members=grok-4.6&fh=4h&tf=4h%2C1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BNB&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "coin": "BNB", "thin": false }, { "rank": 0, "shortlink_code": null, "sim_index": 9873, "stage": "s5t", "branch": "council", "window": "MONTH", "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "members_short": "fable, opus, gemini, qwen", "tokens": [ "XRP" ], "n_coins": 1, "fh": "4h", "tf": "1h", "stake": 450, "concentrated": false, "calibrate": false, "knobs": { "ladder": "50:40,100:60", "be": true, "tp_shift": "-10", "sl_shift": "75", "min_conf": "60", "conf_mode": "each", "tp_sl_source": "farthest", "max_sideways": "2", "max_diff_side": "0", "same_side": "reenter", "opposite": "reverse", "trade_mode": "position", "time_stop": "none" }, "stats": { "net_usd": 828.1277, "wr": 0.76, "max_dd_pct": 43.5, "profit_factor": 1.8237, "trades": 50, "closed": 50, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 225.0, "equity_usd": 1828.1276, "avg_win_usd": 48.2504, "avg_loss_usd": -83.7822 }, "n_days": 19, "smooth_r2": 0.792513, "ulcer": 12.9878, "calmar_like": 19.0374, "by_symbol": [ { "symbol": "XRP", "net_usd": 828.1277, "closed": 50 } ], "funnel": { "slots": 186, "quorum": 50, "traded": 50 }, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=XRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "coin": "XRP", "thin": false } ], "intro": "Which coin was extractable over the month, and by what. Single-coin results are excluded from the council cards by rule (idiosyncratic-coin risk) and reported here, never ranked against the cards. The dedicated per-coin branch contributed 1,150 sims -- a compacted grid, one best per coin per window; the branch tag in brackets says which kind won.", "note": "n in parentheses; * = fewer than 10 closed trades (thin -- direction only). All five winners run calibrate OFF and 2 of the five are councils.", "reads": "The reads. Every coin is net-positive over the month and no row is thin: 18 to 94 closed trades, XRP leading at +$828.1 and BTC lowest at +$187.1. 1 of the five sits below the >=20-trade maturity gate the council boards apply (ETH 18), so that row is direction with a small sample rather than a measured edge. The 1d horizon wins 1 of the five coins. Winner's curse applies to this whole table: each row is the maximum of a per-coin grid, biased high by selection alone, and none has an out-of-sample read until the next issue." }, "baselines": { "note": "Three independent reference points, none of them search output, re-simulated fresh on this issue's frozen window inside the same collect (engine 1.1): the engine solo default for each of the 7 models, the default council-of-7, and the pre-search hand-tuned set A/B/C carried since Config Watch #1. The table shows the universe-aware table-stake run -- this issue's canonical mode ($200 on 5 coins for the defaults; A and B already at their $300 3-coin cap; C moves $400 -> $450 on 2 coins) -- with the best and worst of the seven solo defaults; all eleven rows and both stake modes are in the open data.", "stake_modes": { "original": "the config's own stored stake", "table": "this issue's universe-aware table stake" }, "rows": { "MONTH": [ { "name": "solo default claude-fable-5", "tag": "fable-5", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -104.783, "wr": 0.614815, "dd": 10.7, "trades": 1755, "closed": 1755, "skipped": 0, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.525039, "ulcer": 5.9964, "query": "members=claude-fable-5&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP" }, { "name": "solo default claude-fable-5", "tag": "fable-5", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -130.9709, "wr": 0.609244, "dd": 13.4, "trades": 952, "closed": 952, "skipped": 803, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.367507, "ulcer": 8.322, "query": "members=claude-fable-5&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default claude-opus-5", "tag": "opus-5", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -108.1306, "wr": 0.613683, "dd": 12.5, "trades": 1447, "closed": 1447, "skipped": 0, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.25565, "ulcer": 6.0724, "query": "members=claude-opus-5&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP" }, { "name": "solo default claude-opus-5", "tag": "opus-5", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -144.2812, "wr": 0.612022, "dd": 15.7, "trades": 732, "closed": 732, "skipped": 715, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.540258, "ulcer": 8.5986, "query": 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"stake_mode": "table", "stake": 300, "n_coins": 3, "net": -108.1467, "wr": 0.64, "dd": 72.4, "trades": 26, "closed": 25, "skipped": 9, "n_days": 18, "smooth_r2": 0.194052, "ulcer": 38.6638, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=1d&from=2026-08-31&lev=10&max_diff_side=0&max_sideways=1&members=gemini-3.1-pro%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro&min_conf=50&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=40&steps=40%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1d&time_stop=none&to=2026-09-28&tokens=SOL%2CXRP%2CETH&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0&stake=300" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config B (4h_2_llm_v01)", "tag": "B", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 300, "n_coins": 3, "net": -31.3183, "wr": 0.636905, "dd": 54.3, "trades": 168, "closed": 168, "skipped": 17, "n_days": 30, "smooth_r2": 0.356327, "ulcer": 20.7802, "query": 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"be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-08-31&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=claude-fable-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cqwen-3.8-max&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=35&stake=400&steps=50%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-09-28&tokens=ETH%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config C (4h_4_llm_v02)", "tag": "C", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "net": 44.4149, "wr": 0.666667, "dd": 45.8, "trades": 45, "closed": 45, "skipped": 4, "n_days": 24, "smooth_r2": 0.60801, "ulcer": 15.2829, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-08-31&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=claude-fable-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cqwen-3.8-max&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=35&steps=50%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-09-28&tokens=ETH%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0&stake=450" }, { "name": "solo default claude-fable-5", "tag": "fable-5", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -104.783, "wr": 0.614815, "dd": 10.7, "trades": 1755, "closed": 1755, "skipped": 0, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.525039, "ulcer": 5.9964, "query": "members=claude-fable-5&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP" }, { "name": "solo default claude-fable-5", "tag": "fable-5", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -130.9709, "wr": 0.609244, "dd": 13.4, "trades": 952, "closed": 952, "skipped": 803, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.367507, "ulcer": 8.322, "query": "members=claude-fable-5&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default claude-opus-5", "tag": "opus-5", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -108.1306, "wr": 0.613683, "dd": 12.5, "trades": 1447, "closed": 1447, "skipped": 0, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.25565, "ulcer": 6.0724, "query": "members=claude-opus-5&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP" }, { "name": "solo default claude-opus-5", "tag": "opus-5", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -144.2812, "wr": 0.612022, "dd": 15.7, "trades": 732, "closed": 732, "skipped": 715, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.540258, "ulcer": 8.5986, "query": "members=claude-opus-5&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default gpt-5.6-sol", "tag": "gpt-5.6-sol", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -130.4351, "wr": 0.610265, "dd": 13.7, "trades": 1773, "closed": 1773, "skipped": 0, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.56645, "ulcer": 6.8456, "query": "members=gpt-5.6-sol&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP" }, { "name": "solo default gpt-5.6-sol", "tag": "gpt-5.6-sol", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -154.6552, "wr": 0.606091, "dd": 16.1, "trades": 985, "closed": 985, "skipped": 788, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.480829, "ulcer": 8.1769, "query": "members=gpt-5.6-sol&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default deepseek-v4-pro", "tag": "deepseek-v4-pro", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -156.2008, "wr": 0.589077, "dd": 15.7, "trades": 1886, "closed": 1886, "skipped": 0, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.946622, "ulcer": 8.6926, "query": "members=deepseek-v4-pro&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP" }, { "name": "solo default deepseek-v4-pro", "tag": "deepseek-v4-pro", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -194.4499, "wr": 0.592063, "dd": 19.6, "trades": 1260, "closed": 1260, "skipped": 626, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.851108, "ulcer": 10.5155, "query": "members=deepseek-v4-pro&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default gemini-3.1-pro", "tag": "gemini-3.1-pro", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -6.7665, "wr": 0.576093, "dd": 17.0, "trades": 1899, "closed": 1899, "skipped": 0, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.138121, "ulcer": 7.2013, "query": "members=gemini-3.1-pro&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP" }, { "name": "solo default gemini-3.1-pro", "tag": "gemini-3.1-pro", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -120.5772, "wr": 0.537864, "dd": 15.8, "trades": 515, "closed": 515, "skipped": 1384, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.576618, "ulcer": 7.7386, "query": "members=gemini-3.1-pro&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default qwen-3.8-max", "tag": "qwen-3.8-max", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -138.5937, "wr": 0.594371, "dd": 14.0, "trades": 1812, "closed": 1812, "skipped": 0, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.833565, "ulcer": 6.7202, "query": "members=qwen-3.8-max&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP" }, { "name": "solo default qwen-3.8-max", "tag": "qwen-3.8-max", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -178.5132, "wr": 0.597468, "dd": 18.0, "trades": 1185, "closed": 1185, "skipped": 627, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.815988, "ulcer": 8.8144, "query": "members=qwen-3.8-max&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default grok-4.6", "tag": "grok-4.6", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -107.8361, "wr": 0.604053, "dd": 10.8, "trades": 1283, "closed": 1283, "skipped": 0, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.79124, "ulcer": 5.9973, "query": "members=grok-4.6&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP" }, { "name": "solo default grok-4.6", "tag": "grok-4.6", "kind": "solo_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -91.3646, "wr": 0.612296, "dd": 9.2, "trades": 797, "closed": 797, "skipped": 486, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.270719, "ulcer": 4.8362, "query": "members=grok-4.6&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "council of 7 (engine defaults)", "tag": "C7", "kind": "council7_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -44.1562, "wr": 0.613037, "dd": 4.5, "trades": 721, "closed": 721, "skipped": 0, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.456011, "ulcer": 2.3279, "query": "members=claude-fable-5,claude-opus-5,gpt-5.6-sol,deepseek-v4-pro,gemini-3.1-pro,qwen-3.8-max,grok-4.6&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP" }, { "name": "council of 7 (engine defaults)", "tag": "C7", "kind": "council7_default", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -69.8475, "wr": 0.612281, "dd": 7.1, "trades": 570, "closed": 570, "skipped": 151, "n_days": 32, "smooth_r2": 0.419952, "ulcer": 3.8975, "query": "members=claude-fable-5,claude-opus-5,gpt-5.6-sol,deepseek-v4-pro,gemini-3.1-pro,qwen-3.8-max,grok-4.6&from=2026-09-01&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BTC,ETH,SOL,BNB,XRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config A (1d_3_llm_v02)", "tag": "A", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 300, "n_coins": 3, "net": -815.8728, "wr": 0.222222, "dd": 81.6, "trades": 9, "closed": 9, "skipped": 26, "n_days": 6, "smooth_r2": 0.82076, "ulcer": 39.7787, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=1d&from=2026-09-01&lev=10&max_diff_side=0&max_sideways=1&members=gemini-3.1-pro%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro&min_conf=50&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=40&stake=300&steps=40%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1d&time_stop=none&to=2026-10-01&tokens=SOL%2CXRP%2CETH&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config A (1d_3_llm_v02)", "tag": "A", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 300, "n_coins": 3, "net": -815.8728, "wr": 0.222222, "dd": 81.6, "trades": 9, "closed": 9, "skipped": 26, "n_days": 6, "smooth_r2": 0.82076, "ulcer": 39.7787, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=1d&from=2026-09-01&lev=10&max_diff_side=0&max_sideways=1&members=gemini-3.1-pro%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro&min_conf=50&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=40&steps=40%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1d&time_stop=none&to=2026-10-01&tokens=SOL%2CXRP%2CETH&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0&stake=300" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config B (4h_2_llm_v01)", "tag": "B", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 300, "n_coins": 3, "net": -195.8103, "wr": 0.629834, "dd": 71.8, "trades": 181, "closed": 181, "skipped": 11, "n_days": 31, "smooth_r2": 0.08983, "ulcer": 23.4371, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-09-01&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=gpt-5.6-sol%2Cclaude-opus-5&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=keep&sl_shift=30&stake=300&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BNB%2CXRP%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=average&trade_mode=position&variant=v0" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config B (4h_2_llm_v01)", "tag": "B", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 300, "n_coins": 3, "net": -195.8103, "wr": 0.629834, "dd": 71.8, "trades": 181, "closed": 181, "skipped": 11, "n_days": 31, "smooth_r2": 0.08983, "ulcer": 23.4371, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-09-01&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=gpt-5.6-sol%2Cclaude-opus-5&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=keep&sl_shift=30&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-10-01&tokens=BNB%2CXRP%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=average&trade_mode=position&variant=v0&stake=300" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config C (4h_4_llm_v02)", "tag": "C", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 400, "n_coins": 2, "net": -40.1346, "wr": 0.653061, "dd": 52.2, "trades": 49, "closed": 49, "skipped": 1, "n_days": 24, "smooth_r2": 0.491096, "ulcer": 12.1948, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-09-01&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=claude-fable-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cqwen-3.8-max&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=35&stake=400&steps=50%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-10-01&tokens=ETH%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config C (4h_4_llm_v02)", "tag": "C", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "window": "MONTH", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "net": -19.7786, "wr": 0.652174, "dd": 58.7, "trades": 46, "closed": 46, "skipped": 4, "n_days": 24, "smooth_r2": 0.535298, "ulcer": 13.0954, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-09-01&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=claude-fable-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cqwen-3.8-max&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=35&steps=50%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-10-01&tokens=ETH%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0&stake=450" } ] }, "headline": "Over the month the standing ordering holds in one half only. The seven solo defaults run -$91.4 to -$194.4 at table stake and the council-of-7 -$69.8 -- every default lost money at table stake; the three pre-search hand-tuned configs read -$815.9 / -$195.8 / -$19.8, and the fresh search's +$1,041.5 is above the best reference point in the table (-$19.8). Search > hand-tuned > defaults is only partly what this month measures: the search maximum is above every reference point; a default is at or above a hand-tuned config. The live presets are a separate row of evidence: none of the four is net-positive on the month (walk-forward table above), and two of them run stakes above this issue's cap.", "defaults_skip_note": "* = non-zero skipped_nofunds at table stake. On the 5-coin defaults those counts are the stake table doing its job: at $200 a $1,000 deposit funds at most five concurrent positions (486 to 1,384 skipped each over the month). The other five solo defaults run between the two printed rows, and both stake modes carry the same sign for every one of the eleven rows -- the conclusions do not change between modes. Hand-tuned C moves $400 -> $450 on 2 coins and reads -$40.1 at its own stake against -$19.8 at the table stake.", "live_presets": { "note": "Four hand-tuned configurations trade live on the platform (not search output, distinct from the pre-search A/B/C set): preset bc2 = '1d_3_llm_BC2_v02'; preset 4h4 = '4h_4_llm_v02'; preset sol = 'Sol'; preset xrp = 'XRP'. Their replay rows lead the walk-forward table; passports and window detail are in the open data. The neighbourhood grid asks a narrower question: does a one-knob neighbour beat the preset as configured? Two of the four have a local grid this issue (53 cells on this window); sol and xrp do not (0 cells -- the local grid is not built for them, so no neighbour claim is made about either).", "recon": [ { "slot": "preset_bc2", "preset_id": 12, "name": "1d_3_llm_BC2_v02", "user_id": 11, "updated_at": "2026-08-18 11:36:25.349189+00:00", "raw_config": { "be": true, "fh": "1d", "tf": "1d", "to": "2026-08-12", "lev": 10, "from": "2026-07-13", "stake": 450, "steps": [ { "vol": 80, "dist": 40 }, { "vol": 20, "dist": 100 } ], "period": "season", "refill": false, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "deposit": 1000, "members": [ "gemini-3.1-pro", "gpt-5.6-sol", "deepseek-v4-pro" ], "variant": "v0", "min_conf": 60, "opposite": "reverse", "sl_shift": 50, "steps_on": true, "tp_shift": 30, "conf_mode": "each", "no_signal": "hold", "same_side": "update", "time_stop": "3x", "trade_mode": "position", "max_sideways": 2, "tp_sl_source": "nearest", "max_diff_side": 0 }, "query_sig": "members=gemini-3.1-pro%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro&fh=1d&tf=1d&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=nearest&trade_mode=position&same_side=update&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=3x&steps=40%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=30&sl_shift=50&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "n_coins": 2, "stake": 450, "concentrated": false, "grok_remapped": false, "parse_ok": true, "is_anchor": true, "passport": "members=gemini-3.1-pro,gpt-5.6-sol,deepseek-v4-pro tokens=SOL,XRP fh=1d tf=1d conf_mode=each min_conf=60 max_sideways=2 max_diff_side=0 tp_sl_source=nearest trade_mode=position same_side=update opposite=reverse no_signal=hold time_stop=3x steps=40:80,100:20 steps_on=1 be=1 tp_shift=30 sl_shift=50 deposit=1000 lev=10 refill=0 stake=450 calibrate=- variant=v0", "warnings": [] }, { "slot": "preset_4h4", "preset_id": 9, "name": "4h_4_llm_v02", "user_id": 11, "updated_at": "2026-08-24 13:14:55.498967+00:00", "raw_config": { "be": true, "fh": "4h", "tf": "1h", "to": "", "lev": 10, "from": "", "stake": 450, "steps": [ { "vol": 80, "dist": 50 }, { "vol": 20, "dist": 100 } ], "period": "season", "refill": false, "tokens": [ "ETH", "SOL" ], "deposit": 1000, "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "qwen-3.8-max", "deepseek-v4-pro", "claude-opus-5" ], "variant": "v0", "min_conf": 60, "opposite": "close", "sl_shift": 60, "steps_on": true, "tp_shift": 10, "calibrate": false, "conf_mode": "each", "no_signal": "hold", "same_side": "update", "time_stop": "none", "trade_mode": "position", "max_sideways": 1, "tp_sl_source": "farthest", "max_diff_side": 0 }, "query_sig": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cqwen-3.8-max%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cclaude-opus-5&fh=4h&tf=1h&tokens=ETH%2CSOL&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=update&opposite=close&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=10&sl_shift=60&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "n_coins": 2, "stake": 450, "concentrated": false, "grok_remapped": false, "parse_ok": true, "is_anchor": false, "passport": "members=claude-fable-5,qwen-3.8-max,deepseek-v4-pro,claude-opus-5 tokens=ETH,SOL fh=4h tf=1h conf_mode=each min_conf=60 max_sideways=1 max_diff_side=0 tp_sl_source=farthest trade_mode=position same_side=update opposite=close no_signal=hold time_stop=none steps=50:80,100:20 steps_on=1 be=1 tp_shift=10 sl_shift=60 deposit=1000 lev=10 refill=0 stake=450 calibrate=- variant=v0", "warnings": [] }, { "slot": "preset_sol", "preset_id": 11, "name": "Sol", "user_id": 11, "updated_at": "2026-10-01 05:29:12.999209+00:00", "raw_config": { "be": true, "fh": "4h", "tf": "1h", "to": "", "lev": 10, "from": "", "stake": 900, "steps": [ { "vol": 50, "dist": 35 }, { "vol": 50, "dist": 100 } ], "period": "season", "refill": true, "tokens": [ "SOL" ], "deposit": 1000, "members": [ "deepseek-v4-pro", "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5" ], "variant": "v0", "min_conf": 60, "opposite": "close", "sl_shift": 65, "steps_on": true, "tp_shift": -10, "calibrate": false, "conf_mode": "each", "no_signal": "hold", "same_side": "keep", "time_stop": "none", "trade_mode": "position", "max_sideways": 2, "tp_sl_source": "farthest", "max_diff_side": 0 }, "query_sig": "members=deepseek-v4-pro%2Cclaude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5&fh=4h&tf=1h&tokens=SOL&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=keep&opposite=close&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=35%3A50%2C100%3A50&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=65&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=1&stake=900&variant=v0", "n_coins": 1, "stake": 900, "concentrated": true, "grok_remapped": false, "parse_ok": true, "is_anchor": false, "passport": "members=deepseek-v4-pro,claude-fable-5,claude-opus-5 tokens=SOL fh=4h tf=1h conf_mode=each min_conf=60 max_sideways=2 max_diff_side=0 tp_sl_source=farthest trade_mode=position same_side=keep opposite=close no_signal=hold time_stop=none steps=35:50,100:50 steps_on=1 be=1 tp_shift=-10 sl_shift=65 deposit=1000 lev=10 refill=1 stake=900 calibrate=- variant=v0", "warnings": [] }, { "slot": "preset_xrp", "preset_id": 13, "name": "XRP", "user_id": 11, "updated_at": "2026-08-21 12:59:37.795285+00:00", "raw_config": { "be": true, "fh": "1d", "tf": "1d", "to": "2026-08-12", "lev": 10, "from": "2026-07-13", "stake": 900, "steps": [ { "vol": 80, "dist": 40 }, { "vol": 20, "dist": 100 } ], "period": "season", "refill": false, "tokens": [ "XRP" ], "deposit": 1000, "members": [ "gemini-3.1-pro", "gpt-5.6-sol", "deepseek-v4-pro" ], "variant": "v0", "min_conf": 60, "opposite": "reverse", "sl_shift": 50, "steps_on": true, "tp_shift": 30, "calibrate": false, "conf_mode": "each", "no_signal": "hold", "same_side": "keep", "time_stop": "none", "trade_mode": "position", "max_sideways": 2, "tp_sl_source": "nearest", "max_diff_side": 0 }, "query_sig": "members=gemini-3.1-pro%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro&fh=1d&tf=1d&tokens=XRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=nearest&trade_mode=position&same_side=keep&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=40%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=30&sl_shift=50&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=900&variant=v0", "n_coins": 1, "stake": 900, "concentrated": true, "grok_remapped": false, "parse_ok": true, "is_anchor": false, "passport": "members=gemini-3.1-pro,gpt-5.6-sol,deepseek-v4-pro tokens=XRP fh=1d tf=1d conf_mode=each min_conf=60 max_sideways=2 max_diff_side=0 tp_sl_source=nearest trade_mode=position same_side=keep opposite=reverse no_signal=hold time_stop=none steps=40:80,100:20 steps_on=1 be=1 tp_shift=30 sl_shift=50 deposit=1000 lev=10 refill=0 stake=900 calibrate=- variant=v0", "warnings": [] } ], "neighbourhoods": { "MONTH": [ { "slot": "preset_bc2", "name": "1d_3_llm_BC2_v02", "n_cells": 34, "as_configured": -600.462, "best_neighbour": 555.3269, "delta": 1155.7889 }, { "slot": "preset_4h4", "name": "4h_4_llm_v02", "n_cells": 19, "as_configured": -20.3552, "best_neighbour": 273.9482, "delta": 294.3034 }, { "slot": "preset_sol", "name": "Sol", "n_cells": 0, "as_configured": null, "best_neighbour": null, "delta": null }, { "slot": "preset_xrp", "name": "XRP", "n_cells": 0, "as_configured": null, "best_neighbour": null, "delta": null } ] }, "verdict": "In both preset cells with a grid, a one-knob neighbour beat the configuration as it is actually running on this window: bc2 by +$1,155.8 (-$600.5 -> +$555.3; tp_sl_source nearest -> median); 4h4 by +$294.3 (-$20.4 -> +$273.9; tokens ETH,SOL -> SOL,XRP). Cell counts are small (34 and 19) and every neighbour is an in-sample maximum of its own little grid." } }, "patterns": { "finalist_counts": { "MONTH": 49, "council": { "MONTH": 39 }, "solo": { "MONTH": 10 } }, "knob_modes": { "MONTH": { "Forecast horizon": "4h (33/49)", "Ladder shape (steps)": "50:40,100:60 (49/49)", "Break-even stop (BE)": "on (49/49)", "Min confidence": "60 (49/49)", "SL shift": "75 (49/49)", "TP shift": "-10 (49/49)", "TP/SL source": "farthest (42/49)" } }, "calibrate_on": { "MONTH": "31/49" }, "universe": { "MONTH": { "BNB+XRP": 9, "SOL+XRP": 32, "BTC+ETH": 8 } }, "member_frequency_in_council_finalists": { "MONTH": { "n_council_finalists": 39, "counts": { "claude-fable-5": 39, "claude-opus-5": 24, "gemini-3.1-pro": 11, "qwen-3.8-max": 32, "gpt-5.6-sol": 18, "grok-4.6": 10 } } }, "observation": "The mechanical core: 50:40,100:60 ladder (49/49), break-even on (49/49), conf 60 (49/49), SL +75 / TP -10 (49/49), farthest source (42/49) -- the same core Monthly Config Watch #1 printed for calendar August. The horizon mode is 4h (33/49; calendar August: 1d (46/62)). Calibrate=ON runs in 31 of the 49 finalists, against 37 of 55 on the four-week window of this collect and 37 of 62 on calendar August. The universe is SOL+XRP in 32 of the 49 finalists, and none of them is a single-coin row. Membership across the 39 council finalists: fable 39, qwen 32, opus 24, gpt 18, gemini 11, grok 10. Standing caveats: refinement seeds from the same grid winners, so part of the convergence is search-design echo, and a knob core that produced 10-of-48 survival on Config Watch #8's two windows and 17-of-53 net-positive on this month is describing windows, not a recommendation." }, "liquidation_note": "Liquidation is modeled by the engine at the fixed 10x leverage used throughout. Across the published cards, stop-loss placement stays inside the distance that would approach the liquidation threshold; maxDD is printed on every config so realized risk is visible directly. On this window the published cards draw down 37.7% (council #1), 47.7% (council #2) and 33.0% (the solo card), and the replay table is deeper: 45 of the 57 replayed rows drew down more than 40% over the month and 32 past 55%. A high headline net and a survivable path are different claims, and so are a shallow in-sample drawdown and a shallow one next month.", "watch_amendments": [ { "id": 5, "title": "The monthly cadence (standing)", "detail": "Amendment 5 -- the monthly cadence (standing). The unit of this series is the calendar month: one frozen window from the first day of the month to the first day of the next, cut at the month edge plus the maturity lag (Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC). The four-week M30 window and the calendar week stay in the weekly Config Watch and are not reprinted here; this issue's collect is a run of its own that sweeps the four-week window beside the month, and it prints the counts of that collect whole. The walk-forward verdict rule keeps its wording and is evaluated on the one fresh window this issue has (see Walk-forward above)." }, { "id": 6, "title": "Two standing monthly sections (standing)", "detail": "Amendment 6 -- two standing monthly sections (standing). The survival curve by generation and the survivors-vs-faded structure table are standing sections of this series. Both cost zero additional simulations: every cell of the curve is read out of a published walk-forward table (this issue reads Config Watch #2 to #4 through Monthly Config Watch #1's table and Config Watch #5 to #8 directly) and the structure table is computed from the frozen queries and the replay statistics of the cards Config Watch #8 already replayed. Each monthly issue appends the fresh weeks published since and the generation published since." }, { "formalization": "Both amendments are provisional and scoped to this series. Formalization is slated for methodology v1.2; until then this issue runs on v1.1 plus the Config Watch amendments approved 12.08 (hash e66c7e8c864a2233)." } ], "limitations": [ "One calendar month, one regime. Every number here is a single 30-day window (Sep 1-30, 2026) on a single regime; the month-over-month figures set it beside one earlier month (calendar August, Monthly Config Watch #1), and no past issue is restated. Trades settle past the window edge at their horizon; open = a position still open when the collect ran (Oct 2, 17:14 UTC, 41 hours after the window edge): 0 on the three published cards, 8 of the 114 replay cells (57 rows x 2 windows) carry one each -- listed in the open data.", "This month overlaps the weekly windows, so it is not independent of them. 27 of its 30 days lie in the four published Config Watch weeks it is read against (Config Watch #5 Aug 31-Sep 7, 2026; Config Watch #6 Sep 7-14, 2026; Config Watch #7 Sep 14-21, 2026; Config Watch #8 Sep 21-28, 2026) and 27 in Config Watch #8's 28-day four-week window; the month, the weeks and the four weeks are readings of overlapping data, and agreement between them is partly arithmetic.", "The replay column is decay context, not clean out-of-sample. The search windows of issue-8, issue-7, issue-6 and issue-5 overlap this month, so 19 of the 53 replayed cards are partly scored on the days they were selected on; the older cohorts' windows end before it. Publication dates bound it too: 27 of the 53 cards were published inside or after the month (issue-8 on Oct 1, issue-7 on Sep 23, issue-6 on Sep 16, issue-5 on Sep 9 and issue-4 and Monthly-1 on Sep 4), so for them the September days before publication are not a forward test of a published card; only the 26 cards of issue-3, issue-2 and issue-1 were published before Sep 1 (issue-3 on Aug 26, issue-2 on Aug 19 and issue-1 on Aug 13) -- the 26 cards Monthly Config Watch #1 read at 20 of 26 on calendar August, and they read 2 of 26 here. The 53 cards are 51 distinct configurations window aside (cwm1-s1 = cw3-s2; cw3-m301 = cw3-wk1). The four live presets are not search output and have no home issue, and 2 of them run stakes above this issue's cap for their universe size ([conc] rows) -- their printed economics assume funding the current rule would not grant.", "The survival curve mixes window lengths and calendar weeks. Each +kw cell is a 7-day window from a different issue and a different week of August and September, the Calendar Sep column is a 30-day window, and the live-preset row has no publication date at all. Read down a column, not across a row, and not as a decay rate.", "Stability is defined inside the run that computes it. This board comes from this issue's collect and therefore reads across the four-week window and the calendar month -- two windows that share 27 of their days -- so it measures persistence across largely overlapping windows; it is comparable with Monthly Config Watch #1's board, read across the same pair, and not with the weekly issues' boards built across WK and M30.", "Research-to-date counter is pinned, and it is read at this issue's cutoff. The counter below is pinned from wave 3 onward and prints 59,755 resolved forecasts at the monthly cutoff (Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC), where Config Watch #8 printed 57,929 at its own cutoff (Sep 28, 2026 16:00 UTC) and Monthly Config Watch #1 39,073 at its own (Mon Sep 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC): the same counter at three cutoffs, not three measurements. The model line counts 7 current models with earlier versions folded into their successors' lineage.", "Multiple testing, winner's curse and thin cells. 11,075 simulations in this collect; at this scale some winners are expected from chance alone, and every card, board row and per-ticker best is the maximum of a search, biased high by selection. On this window 4 replay rows are under 10 closed trades and 1 of the five per-ticker winners is under the >=20-trade maturity gate. Antidotes: axes frozen before launch, the walk-forward table, independent baselines, in-sample labeling; no formal correction yet. Research output, not financial advice." ], "research_to_date": { "this_report": { "search_simulations": 11075, "errors": 0, "walk_forward_replays": 155, "verification_sims": 44, "verification_sims_detail": "44 baseline runs in this collect (11 configs x 2 windows x 2 stake modes); the 22 calendar-month rows are printed and the other 22 (its four-week window) stay in the open data. 0 equity replays needed" }, "platform": { "resolved_forecasts": 59755, "resolved_forecasts_since": "2026-07-11", "as_of_cutoff": "Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC", "models_tracked": 7, "models_tracked_detail": "current line-up; earlier versions folded into their successors' lineage", "assets": 5, "forecast_horizons": 5, "cadence": "hourly", "published_research_reports": 42 }, "counting_note": "Counter pinned from wave 3 onward and read at this issue's cutoff (Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC), where Config Watch #8 read 57,929 at its own cutoff and Monthly Config Watch #1 39,073 at its own; the model line counts the current line-up, with earlier versions folded into their successors' lineage. Monthly Config Watch #2 is the 42nd published report: Monthly Consensus Watch #2, Monthly Calibration #2 and Monthly Model Watch #2 are 39, 40 and 41, and Config Watch #8 is 38.", "box_text": "THIS REPORT -- search effort: 11,075 simulations (0 errors) in one frozen collect, of which 155 walk-forward replays and origin re-runs · 44 verification sims (baseline runs inside the same collect; 0 equity replays needed)\n\nMARKETMANIA RESEARCH TO DATE (as of cutoff Oct 1, 16:00 UTC): 59,755 resolved since Jul 11 · 7 models tracked (current line-up; earlier versions folded into their successors' lineage) · 5 assets · 5 horizons · hourly · 42 published reports" }, "issue_badge": "Issue #2. Monthly Config Watch is a living monthly comparison: each issue appends one more calendar month of cards, walk-forward verdicts and survival data, and nothing in a past issue is restated. This issue appends calendar September -- a best mature council of +$1,041.5 (August: +$1,618.4) and a best mature solo of +$923.2 (August: +$1,721.9), 17 of 53 published cards net-positive on the month (August: 20 of 26), a survival curve that reaches +7 fresh weeks for the issue-1 generation (August: +3), and a structural table of Config Watch #8's 10 survivors against its 38 faded cards. The calendar week and the four-week window stay in the weekly Config Watch.", "testing_next": [ "Monthly Config Watch #3 -- the October calendar month (2026-10-01 to 2026-11-01) from the same engine, the same criteria and the same collect code, read against the weekly issues whose weeks lie in that month. It carries the first calendar-month replay rows for this issue's own cards.", "The survival curve extended. Every weekly issue adds one fresh week to every generation already on the curve and puts a new generation on it; Monthly #3 prints those columns for the October weeks, which is the first point at which the issue-8 generation has a fresh-week reading.", "The quarterly -- the first cross-issue aggregate of the walk-forward table: the weekly and monthly issues of the quarter on one axis, with the survival curve as its spine." ], "related_research": [ { "title": "Monthly Consensus Watch #2", "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.pdf" }, { "title": "Monthly Calibration #2", "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/calibration-monthly-2026-09.pdf" }, { "title": "Monthly Model Watch #2", "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/model-watch-monthly-2026-09.pdf" }, { "title": "Config Watch #8", "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-2026-09-23.pdf" }, { "title": "Monthly Config Watch #1", "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-monthly-2026-08.pdf" } ], "related_note": "The three monthly reports publish together as one issue each month; this issue joins them on the same cadence. Config Watch #8 is the newest weekly issue: it carries the calendar week Sep 21-28, 2026 and the four-week window Aug 31-Sep 28, 2026 from collects of its own, and no board of either is reprinted here. Monthly Config Watch #1 is the previous issue of this series and the source of every month-over-month number.", "bibtex": "@techreport{mm_configwatch_monthly_2026m09,\n title = {Monthly Config Watch #2},\n author = {{MarketMania Research}},\n institution = {MarketMania},\n year = {2026},\n month = oct,\n day = {3},\n type = {Monthly Research Report},\n series = {Monthly Config Watch},\n number = {2},\n note = {Methodology v1.1 + Config Watch amendments, hash e66c7e8c864a2233},\n url = {https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-monthly-2026-09.pdf}\n}", "sources": { "search_summary": "summary_month.json (w298 month collect, 2026-10-02T17:14:05Z)", "oos_pack": "oos_cw8_month.json (9 rows, live presets first) + oos_cw7_month.json (9) + oos_cw6_month.json (9) + oos_cw5_month.json (8) + oos_cw4_month.json (9) + oos_cwm1_month.json (7) + oos_cw3_month.json (10) + oos_cw2_month.json (8) + oos_cw1_month.json (12), each replayed on both windows of the collect", "preset_recon": "presets_recon_month.json (analytics.EnsemblePreset)", "search_plan": "w298 plan (criteria frozen before launch)", "collect_log": "w298month_collect.log (cal_pairs=2,892 over both windows, stable_rows=22, skipped_alerts=28; boards computed at 2026-10-02 16:43:58Z (generated_ts 1790959438.679411))", "extras": "grid_hist_month.json / equity_month.json / baselines_month.json (inside the same collect)", "published_issues": { "monthly_config_watch_1": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-monthly-2026-08.json", "config_watch_8": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-2026-09-23.json", "config_watch_7": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-2026-09-16.json", "config_watch_6": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-2026-09-09.json", "config_watch_5": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-2026-09-02.json", "config_watch_4": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-2026-08-26.json" } }, "omissions": { "m30_and_week": "The four-week window (Aug 31-Sep 28, 2026) and the calendar week (Sep 21-28, 2026) are carried by Config Watch #8; this issue prints the calendar month only, and quotes the other two windows by name where they are compared.", "stability_board": "present in the mature net top-40 of BOTH windows of the run that produced it -- this run is the month collect, whose two windows are M30 (Aug 31-Sep 28, 2026, the four weeks Config Watch #8 printed from its own night collect) and the calendar month (Sep 1-30, 2026), so the board reads 'stable across M30 and the calendar month'; the two windows share 27 days (Sep 1-27), Aug 31 lies in M30 only and Sep 28-30 in the month only, so neither contains the other; one of the two windows is this issue's own", "market_context": "Market-regime figures come from the monthly wave and are not carried in this issue's data pack; no regime numbers are quoted.", "config_watch_8_cards": "Config Watch #8's own five cards are in the walk-forward table for the first time; their search windows share 27 of 28 and 7 of 7 days with the month, so their rows are scored mostly on in-sample days.", "sandbox_short_links": "Minted by the publish script before this file goes live (see shortlinks.planned). Reproduce from the frozen query signature + sim index.", "profit_factor_column": "PF is carried per row in the open data but not tabulated in the report." }, "grid_hist": { "note": "Net PnL across all 4,176 stage-2 grid sims, MONTH window (Sep 1-30, 2026), universe-aware stake throughout. Grid median -$5.7, 29.6% positive (calendar August: $0.0, 41.8% positive); the same grid on the four-week window of this collect ran 29.9% positive and on Config Watch #8's fresh week 47.7%. The $0 bin holds 1,623 cells; 842 sims on this window produced no trade at all. Range -$802.6 to +$1,041.5; 117 cells finished above +$500 and the maximum of the grid is council card #1. Red marker = best solo default at table stake; green = the published cards.", "stage": "s2", "bin_step_usd": 250, "MONTH": { "bin_edges": [ -1000, -750, -500, -250, 0, 250, 500, 750, 1000, 1250 ], "counts": [ 18, 735, 491, 853, 1623, 339, 97, 18, 2 ], "n": 4176, "zero_trade": 842, "median": -5.65, "share_positive": 0.296, "min": -802.58, "max": 1041.55 }, "readings": { "MONTH": "Net PnL across all 4,176 stage-2 grid sims, MONTH window (Sep 1-30, 2026), universe-aware stake throughout. Grid median -$5.7, 29.6% positive (calendar August: $0.0, 41.8% positive); the same grid on the four-week window of this collect ran 29.9% positive and on Config Watch #8's fresh week 47.7%. The $0 bin holds 1,623 cells; 842 sims on this window produced no trade at all. Range -$802.6 to +$1,041.5; 117 cells finished above +$500 and the maximum of the grid is council card #1. Red marker = best solo default at table stake; green = the published cards." }, "card_percentiles": { "MONTH": { "month_council_1": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 1041.5484, "better_than_pct": 100.0 }, "month_council_2": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 1021.7461, "better_than_pct": 100.0 }, "month_council_3": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 970.2013, "better_than_pct": 99.9 }, "month_solo_1": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 923.2359, "better_than_pct": 99.9 }, "month_solo_2": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 923.2359, "better_than_pct": 99.9 }, "month_solo_3": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 878.5257, "better_than_pct": 99.7 }, "cw8-m302_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 1041.5484, "better_than_pct": 100.0 }, "cw8-wk1_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -571.4131, "better_than_pct": 12.8 }, "cw7-m301_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 960.8178, "better_than_pct": 99.9 }, "cw7-s1_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 772.9793, "better_than_pct": 99.6 }, "cw7-wk2_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -606.723, "better_than_pct": 7.7 }, "cw6-m302_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -229.9169, "better_than_pct": 30.9 }, "cw6-wk1_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 411.1002, "better_than_pct": 95.3 }, "cw5-m301_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -597.0274, "better_than_pct": 9.2 }, "cw5-wk1_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 1085.2856, "better_than_pct": 100.0 }, "cw4-m301_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -76.1517, "better_than_pct": 43.6 }, "cw4-s1_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -289.1551, "better_than_pct": 27.8 }, "cw4-wk2_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 397.2238, "better_than_pct": 94.9 }, "cwm1-m2_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 17.626, "better_than_pct": 72.7 }, "cw3-m301_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -279.1606, "better_than_pct": 28.3 }, "cw3-s1_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -763.1365, "better_than_pct": 0.1 }, "cw3-wk1_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -279.1606, "better_than_pct": 28.3 }, "cw8-m301_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 1021.7461, "better_than_pct": 100.0 }, "cw8-s1_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -252.6672, "better_than_pct": 29.6 }, "cw8-wk2_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -554.379, "better_than_pct": 15.9 }, "cw7-m302_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 221.4111, "better_than_pct": 87.7 }, "cw7-wk1_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 305.0792, "better_than_pct": 91.8 }, "cw6-m301_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 543.9583, "better_than_pct": 97.8 }, "cw6-s1_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 287.8813, "better_than_pct": 90.9 }, "cw6-wk2_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 159.8245, "better_than_pct": 83.9 }, "cw5-s1_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -49.0932, "better_than_pct": 46.5 }, "cw5-wk2_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 44.323, "better_than_pct": 75.5 }, "cw4-m302_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -581.9387, "better_than_pct": 11.4 }, "cw4-wk1_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": 49.3287, "better_than_pct": 75.6 }, "cwm1-m1_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -670.2826, "better_than_pct": 3.1 }, "cwm1-s1_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -567.3049, "better_than_pct": 13.4 }, "cw3-m302_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -247.1588, "better_than_pct": 29.9 }, "cw3-s2_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -567.3049, "better_than_pct": 13.4 }, "cw3-wk2_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -505.2057, "better_than_pct": 17.8 }, "preset_bc2_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -600.462, "better_than_pct": 8.4 }, "preset_4h4_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -20.3552, "better_than_pct": 48.5 }, "preset_sol_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -60.7654, "better_than_pct": 45.6 }, "preset_xrp_MONTH": { "window": "MONTH", "net": -387.0, "better_than_pct": 22.9 } } }, "buckets": { "MONTH": [ { "lo": -1000, "hi": -750, "label": "-$1,000 to -$750", "count": 18, "share": 0.004310344827586207 }, { "lo": -750, "hi": -500, "label": "-$750 to -$500", "count": 735, "share": 0.17600574712643677 }, { "lo": -500, "hi": -250, "label": "-$500 to -$250", "count": 491, "share": 0.11757662835249043 }, { "lo": -250, "hi": 0, "label": "-$250 to $0", "count": 853, "share": 0.2042624521072797 }, { "lo": 0, "hi": 250, "label": "$0 to +$250", "count": 1623, "share": 0.3886494252873563 }, { "lo": 250, "hi": 500, "label": "+$250 to +$500", "count": 339, "share": 0.08117816091954023 }, { "lo": 500, "hi": 750, "label": "+$500 to +$750", "count": 97, "share": 0.023227969348659006 }, { "lo": 750, "hi": 1000, "label": "+$750 to +$1,000", "count": 18, "share": 0.004310344827586207 }, { "lo": 1000, "hi": 1250, "label": "+$1,000 to +$1,250", "count": 2, "share": 0.0004789272030651341 } ] } }, "equity": { "note": "Daily settled equity for card #1 above ($1,000 start, 10x leverage, frozen window; #1 red -- fixed rank colors across all issues). A curve running past the window end is an open-at-cutoff trade settling at its horizon (the 2-3 day luft); the last point reconciles to the card's net to the cent. There is no muted contrast line on this window: the mature leader is also the net-board maximum (the same simulation, i=7089), so a second curve would be the same line. The line peaks at +$1,365.4 on 2026-09-22 and ends the window at +$1,041.5. Card #2, the solo card and the other board leaders keep their daily series in the open data -- the PDF carries one equity chart.", "start_deposit_usd": 1000, "leverage": "10x", "dates": { "MONTH": [ "2026-09-01", "2026-09-02", "2026-09-03", "2026-09-04", "2026-09-05", "2026-09-06", "2026-09-07", "2026-09-08", "2026-09-09", "2026-09-10", "2026-09-11", "2026-09-12", "2026-09-13", "2026-09-14", "2026-09-15", "2026-09-16", "2026-09-17", "2026-09-18", "2026-09-19", "2026-09-20", "2026-09-21", "2026-09-22", "2026-09-23", "2026-09-24", "2026-09-25", "2026-09-26", "2026-09-27", "2026-09-28", "2026-09-29", "2026-09-30", "2026-10-01", "2026-10-02" ] }, "cards": { "MONTH": { "month_council_mature1": [ [ "2026-09-02", -0.36 ], [ "2026-09-03", 354.49 ], [ "2026-09-04", 123.67 ], [ "2026-09-05", 324.93 ], [ "2026-09-07", 431.35 ], [ "2026-09-08", 209.59 ], [ "2026-09-09", 98.78 ], [ "2026-09-10", 263.69 ], [ "2026-09-11", 350.61 ], [ "2026-09-12", 306.26 ], [ "2026-09-13", 354.55 ], [ "2026-09-14", 514.39 ], [ "2026-09-15", 526.09 ], [ "2026-09-16", 606.93 ], [ "2026-09-17", 637.34 ], [ "2026-09-18", 975.1 ], [ "2026-09-19", 1005.59 ], [ "2026-09-20", 918.79 ], [ "2026-09-21", 1337.51 ], [ "2026-09-22", 1365.41 ], [ "2026-09-23", 1193.81 ], [ "2026-09-24", 1163.88 ], [ "2026-09-25", 1001.88 ], [ "2026-09-27", 988.27 ], [ "2026-09-28", 1025.8 ], [ "2026-09-30", 1041.55 ] ], "month_council_1": [ [ "2026-09-02", -0.36 ], [ "2026-09-03", 354.49 ], [ "2026-09-04", 123.67 ], [ "2026-09-05", 324.93 ], [ "2026-09-07", 431.35 ], [ "2026-09-08", 209.59 ], [ "2026-09-09", 98.78 ], [ "2026-09-10", 263.69 ], [ "2026-09-11", 350.61 ], [ "2026-09-12", 306.26 ], [ "2026-09-13", 354.55 ], [ "2026-09-14", 514.39 ], [ "2026-09-15", 526.09 ], [ "2026-09-16", 606.93 ], [ "2026-09-17", 637.34 ], [ "2026-09-18", 975.1 ], [ "2026-09-19", 1005.59 ], [ "2026-09-20", 918.79 ], [ "2026-09-21", 1337.51 ], [ "2026-09-22", 1365.41 ], [ "2026-09-23", 1193.81 ], [ "2026-09-24", 1163.88 ], [ "2026-09-25", 1001.88 ], [ "2026-09-27", 988.27 ], [ "2026-09-28", 1025.8 ], [ "2026-09-30", 1041.55 ] ], "month_solo_mature1": [ [ "2026-09-01", 54.79 ], [ "2026-09-02", 57.34 ], [ "2026-09-03", 230.84 ], [ "2026-09-04", 78.03 ], [ "2026-09-05", 78.72 ], [ "2026-09-06", 120.97 ], [ "2026-09-07", 138.96 ], [ "2026-09-08", -37.39 ], [ "2026-09-09", -87.88 ], [ "2026-09-10", 9.83 ], [ "2026-09-11", -99.37 ], [ "2026-09-13", -22.58 ], [ "2026-09-14", 183.44 ], [ "2026-09-15", 107.53 ], [ "2026-09-16", 96.61 ], [ "2026-09-17", 169.78 ], [ "2026-09-18", 273.6 ], [ "2026-09-19", 315.45 ], [ "2026-09-20", 341.79 ], [ "2026-09-21", 628.04 ], [ "2026-09-22", 790.98 ], [ "2026-09-23", 955.24 ], [ "2026-09-24", 814.39 ], [ "2026-09-25", 839.6 ], [ "2026-09-26", 714.48 ], [ "2026-09-27", 690.58 ], [ "2026-09-28", 683.42 ], [ "2026-09-29", 772.97 ], [ "2026-09-30", 836.03 ], [ "2026-10-01", 879.79 ], [ "2026-10-02", 923.24 ] ], "month_smooth1": [ [ "2026-09-01", 6.0 ], [ "2026-09-03", 32.0 ], [ "2026-09-04", 51.4 ], [ "2026-09-05", 127.09 ], [ "2026-09-07", 132.49 ], [ "2026-09-09", 165.97 ], [ "2026-09-14", 201.09 ], [ "2026-09-15", 260.15 ], [ "2026-09-16", 264.51 ], [ "2026-09-19", 285.56 ], [ "2026-09-21", 367.95 ], [ "2026-09-22", 381.1 ], [ "2026-09-23", 437.47 ], [ "2026-09-24", 442.88 ], [ "2026-09-25", 460.71 ], [ "2026-09-26", 472.1 ], [ "2026-09-27", 484.13 ], [ "2026-09-28", 499.82 ], [ "2026-09-29", 537.02 ], [ "2026-09-30", 549.44 ], [ "2026-10-01", 578.31 ] ] } }, "labels": { "MONTH": { "month_council_mature1": "MONTH card #1 (+$1,041.5)", "month_council_1": "net-board maximum (+$1,041.5)", "month_solo_mature1": "MONTH solo #1 (+$923.2)", "month_smooth1": "Smoothness board #1 (+$578.3)" } }, "chart_series": { "MONTH": [ "month_council_mature1" ] }, "series": { "m30_council_1": [ [ "2026-08-31", -112.54 ], [ "2026-09-01", -274.54 ], [ "2026-09-02", -271.51 ], [ "2026-09-03", -7.73 ], [ "2026-09-04", -348.71 ], [ "2026-09-07", -300.72 ], [ "2026-09-08", -408.94 ], [ "2026-09-09", -484.76 ], [ "2026-09-10", -303.65 ], [ "2026-09-11", -216.73 ], [ "2026-09-14", 30.41 ], [ "2026-09-15", 42.11 ], [ "2026-09-16", 122.94 ], [ "2026-09-17", 154.46 ], [ "2026-09-18", 640.07 ], [ "2026-09-19", 573.43 ], [ "2026-09-20", 654.26 ], [ "2026-09-21", 1185.05 ], [ "2026-09-22", 1098.74 ], [ "2026-09-23", 1003.36 ], [ "2026-09-24", 1096.06 ], [ "2026-09-25", 1035.57 ], [ "2026-09-26", 1013.71 ], [ "2026-09-27", 1079.84 ], [ "2026-09-28", 1002.85 ], [ "2026-09-29", 1018.6 ] ], "m30_council_2": [ [ "2026-08-31", -126.86 ], [ "2026-09-01", -82.76 ], [ "2026-09-02", -83.12 ], [ "2026-09-03", 271.72 ], [ "2026-09-04", 40.91 ], [ "2026-09-05", 242.16 ], [ "2026-09-07", 348.59 ], [ "2026-09-08", 126.83 ], [ "2026-09-09", 16.01 ], [ "2026-09-10", 180.93 ], [ "2026-09-11", 267.84 ], [ "2026-09-12", 223.49 ], [ "2026-09-13", 271.78 ], [ "2026-09-14", 431.63 ], [ "2026-09-15", 443.33 ], [ "2026-09-16", 524.16 ], [ "2026-09-17", 554.58 ], [ "2026-09-18", 892.34 ], [ "2026-09-19", 922.83 ], 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"2026-09-21", 455.99 ], [ "2026-09-22", 313.66 ], [ "2026-09-23", 358.95 ], [ "2026-09-24", 156.9 ], [ "2026-09-25", 270.03 ], [ "2026-09-27", 370.38 ], [ "2026-09-28", 122.86 ], [ "2026-09-29", 158.72 ], [ "2026-09-30", 170.98 ], [ "2026-10-02", -60.77 ] ], "preset_xrp_MONTH": [ [ "2026-09-02", -387.0 ] ] }, "basis": { "m30_council_1": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "m30_council_2": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "m30_council_3": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "m30_council_mature1": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "m30_solo_1": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "m30_solo_2": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "m30_solo_3": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "m30_solo_mature1": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "m30_calmar1": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "m30_wr1": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "m30_smooth1": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "month_council_1": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "month_council_2": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "month_council_3": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "month_council_mature1": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "month_solo_1": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "month_solo_2": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "month_solo_3": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "month_solo_mature1": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "month_calmar1": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "month_wr1": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "month_smooth1": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw8-m301_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw8-m302_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw8-s1_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw8-wk1_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw8-wk2_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw7-m301_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw7-m302_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw7-s1_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw7-wk1_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw7-wk2_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw6-m301_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw6-m302_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw6-s1_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw6-wk1_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw6-wk2_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw5-m301_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw5-s1_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw5-wk1_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw5-wk2_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw4-m301_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw4-m302_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw4-s1_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw4-wk1_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw4-wk2_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cwm1-m1_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cwm1-m2_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cwm1-s1_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw3-m301_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw3-m302_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw3-s1_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw3-s2_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw3-wk1_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw3-wk2_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "preset_bc2_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "preset_4h4_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "preset_sol_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "preset_xrp_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw8-m301_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw8-m302_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw8-s1_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw8-wk1_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw8-wk2_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw7-m301_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw7-m302_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw7-s1_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw7-wk1_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw7-wk2_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw6-m301_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw6-m302_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw6-s1_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw6-wk1_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw6-wk2_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw5-m301_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw5-s1_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw5-wk1_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw5-wk2_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw4-m301_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw4-m302_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw4-s1_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw4-wk1_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw4-wk2_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cwm1-m1_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cwm1-m2_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cwm1-s1_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw3-m301_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw3-m302_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw3-s1_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw3-s2_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw3-wk1_M30": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "cw3-wk2_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "preset_bc2_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "preset_4h4_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "preset_sol_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000", "preset_xrp_MONTH": "series-equity minus deposit 1000" } }, "charts": { "chart_survival": { "id": "chart_survival", "file": "chart_survival.png", "series": [ { "label": "issue-1", "cards": 12, "points": [ [ 1, 0.5 ], [ 2, 0.9166666666666666 ], [ 3, 0.08333333333333333 ], [ 4, 0.16666666666666666 ], [ 5, 0.25 ], [ 6, 0.9166666666666666 ], [ 7, 0.08333333333333333 ] ] }, { "label": "issue-2", "cards": 8, "points": [ [ 1, 1.0 ], [ 2, 0.5 ], [ 3, 0.125 ], [ 4, 0.25 ], [ 5, 0.625 ], [ 6, 0.75 ] ] }, { "label": "issue-3", "cards": 6, "points": [ [ 1, 0.3333333333333333 ], [ 2, 0.3333333333333333 ], [ 3, 0.3333333333333333 ], [ 4, 0.8333333333333334 ], [ 5, 0.3333333333333333 ] ] }, { "label": "issue-4", "cards": 5, "points": [ [ 1, 0.2 ], [ 2, 0.0 ], [ 3, 0.8 ], [ 4, 0.8 ] ] }, { "label": "Monthly-1", "cards": 3, "points": [ [ 1, 0.6666666666666666 ], [ 2, 0.0 ], [ 3, 0.3333333333333333 ], [ 4, 1.0 ] ] }, { "label": "issue-5", "cards": 4, "points": [ [ 1, 0.25 ], [ 2, 0.75 ], [ 3, 0.5 ] ] }, { "label": "issue-6", "cards": 5, "points": [ [ 1, 0.8 ], [ 2, 0.4 ] ] }, { "label": "issue-7", "cards": 5, "points": [ [ 1, 0.8 ] ] } ], "month_points": [ { "label": "Config Watch #1", "share": 0.16666666666666666 }, { "label": "Config Watch #2", "share": 0.0 }, { "label": "Config Watch #3", "share": 0.0 }, { "label": "Config Watch #4", "share": 0.4 }, { "label": "Monthly Config Watch #1", "share": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "label": "Config Watch #5", "share": 0.5 }, { "label": "Config Watch #6", "share": 0.8 }, { "label": "Config Watch #7", "share": 0.8 }, { "label": "Config Watch #8", "share": 0.4 } ], "title": "Survival by generation -- cards net-positive on the k-th fresh week", "xlabel": "Fresh weeks since the issue's own window edge", "ylabel": "Cards net-positive (%)", "x_labels": [ "+1 week", "+2 weeks", "+3 weeks", "+4 weeks", "+5 weeks", "+6 weeks", "+7 weeks" ] }, "chart_equity_month": { "id": "chart_equity_month", "file": "chart_equity_month.png", "series": [ "month_council_mature1" ], "window": [ "2026-09-01", "2026-10-01" ] }, "chart_hist_month": { "id": "chart_hist_month", "file": "chart_hist_month.png", "bin_edges": [ -1000, -750, -500, -250, 0, 250, 500, 750, 1000, 1250 ], "counts": [ 18, 735, 491, 853, 1623, 339, 97, 18, 2 ], "n": 4176, "median": -5.65, "cards": [ { "rank": 1, "net_usd": 1041.5484 }, { "rank": 2, "net_usd": 1021.7461 } ], "best_default_label": "grok-4.6", "best_default_val": -91.3646, "window_label": "Sep 1-30, 2026", "branch_key": "MONTH" }, "chart_oos_month": { "id": "chart_oos_month", "file": "chart_oos_month.png", "categories": [ "wk1", "wk2", "s1", "m301", "m302" ], "series_a": [ 583.3534, 570.5819, 445.4209, 1018.5953, 943.0362 ], "label_a": "as printed in issue #8 (in-sample)", "series_b": [ -571.4131, -554.379, -252.6672, 1021.7461, 1041.5484 ], "label_b": "replayed verbatim on the calendar month", "title": "Config Watch #8's five published cards: home number vs calendar-month replay" }, "note": "Every chart is a matplotlib PNG embedded at the full content width. The three shared routines are imported from the weekly issue's chart module; the survival curve is this series' own and is drawn in the same house style. No chart in this series is a reportlab vector drawing. Order in the PDF, and in this block: the survival curve after TL;DR (the page-1 chart slot of this series), equity(MONTH) after the cards, hist(MONTH) in the slot the weekly canon gives the second window's histogram -- closing the cards block, after their equity chart and before the walk-forward -- and the walk-forward bars inside the walk-forward section. The survival section carries the table and its note only: no chart is printed twice." }, "shortlinks": { "planned": { "m1": "cwm2-m1", "m2": "cwm2-m2", "s1": "cwm2-s1" }, "note": "Each link opens this exact frozen window; results visible without sign-in (embedded share signature). The codes are minted by the publish script before this file goes live; every card's full frozen query signature is in the open-data JSON next to its simulation index." }, "presentation": { "pdf_pages": 17, "build_note": "Issue #2 of the monthly series, built from Monthly Config Watch #1's document model on the calendar-month window of the w298 month collect: the same skeleton, tables, widths and key order, with the survival curve grown to 9 generations and 7 fresh weeks, the verdict block on Config Watch #5-#8 and the 30-day table on Config Watch #8's four-week cards. Charts stay matplotlib PNGs (one histogram, one equity chart, the walk-forward bars and the survival curve); notes are grey, not italic; the sandbox links are green badge boxes. See CHANGES_cwm2.md.", "json_only_panels": [ "grid_hist.buckets (the $250 bucket table the histogram is drawn from; the PDF prints the histogram)", "equity.cards month_council_1 / month_solo_mature1 / month_smooth1 (the net-board, solo and smoothness equity panels stay out of the PDF)", "equity.series -- every card series the collect produced, on both of its windows", "oos_walk_forward.rows WR / maxDD / smooth_r2 per replay row, and the four-week replay of every row (the PDF table carries Home, New MONTH (n) and the verdict)", "oos_walk_forward.drift_baseline (origin re-run drift table; the PDF carries a one-line summary)", "calibrate_effect: the median deltas, the mature overview, the top-slice rows and the exported pair sample", "boards.smooth / boards.quality full 15-row boards (PDF prints top-3 per board)", "stability.rows (the 22 rows; the PDF carries the count, the top three and the definition)", "baselines.rows original-stake mode and the five solo defaults between best and worst (PDF prints the table-stake mode and the best/worst pair)", "baselines.rows.month_collect_all_windows four-week rows (this collect's other window, carried here only as provenance)", "per_ticker_best full stats incl. WR / maxDD / R2, funnel and by_symbol detail (PDF prints the compact form)", "owner_anchor.MONTH.top10_better_on_all_three full passport fields", "survival_curve.rows per-cell source issue and window", "survivors_vs_faded.survivors/faded codes", "m30_vs_month.rows -- both windows' full stats per card, with the source of every cell and the signature the rows were matched on" ], "sections": [ "masthead", "snapshot", "key_finding", "verdict", "tldr", "survival_chart", "why", "how", "cards", "equity", "grid", "m30_vs_month", "oos", "survival", "structure", "calibrate", "solo", "quality", "anchor", "per_ticker", "baselines", "presets", "patterns", "liquidation", "amendments", "limitations", "counters", "research_to_date", "issue_badge", "testing_next", "related", "cite" ], "charts": [ "chart_survival", "chart_equity_month", "chart_hist_month", "chart_oos_month" ], "renderers": "mm_report.make_report (PDF), markdown mirror, this JSON -- one document model" }, "survival_curve": { "definition": "Share (and count) of a generation's published cards that finished net-positive on the k-th fresh week after that issue's own window edge, read out of the issue that ran the replay; the calendar_month field is this issue's replay of the same cards.", "intro": "Each published generation of cards, read on the fresh weeks that followed it. A cell counts that generation's cards that finished net-positive on the k-th fresh week after the issue's own window edge, out of all of its cards, taken from the issue that ran that replay; the last column is this issue's calendar-month replay of the same cards. Nothing is re-simulated for this table: every number in it is already in a published open-data file, and this issue only lines them up. The chart under TL;DR draws the eight card rows of this table that have a fresh week, as shares; it is printed once, there.", "note": "Cell by cell: every +k cell is the walk-forward of the issue whose fresh week it is -- Config Watch #2 (Aug 10-17, 2026), Config Watch #3 (Aug 17-24, 2026), Config Watch #4 (Aug 24-31, 2026), Config Watch #5 (Aug 31-Sep 7, 2026), Config Watch #6 (Sep 7-14, 2026), Config Watch #7 (Sep 14-21, 2026), Config Watch #8 (Sep 21-28, 2026) -- and a generation's +1 week is the first of those weeks after its own window edge: issue-1 at #2, issue-2 at #3, issue-3 at #4, issue-4 and Monthly-1 at #5, issue-5 at #6, issue-6 at #7, issue-7 at #8. issue-8's cards have no fresh week yet and only the Calendar Sep cell. The live presets are not a generation and have no publication date: their six cells are the six issues that replayed them -- Config Watch #3 replayed 2 of the 4, #4 to #8 all 4 -- and that row is not drawn on the chart. Calendar Sep is this issue's window (Sep 1-30, 2026) for every row; Monthly Config Watch #1 read the issue-1 row at 8/12, the issue-2 row at 8/8, the issue-3 row at 4/6 and the presets row at 4/4 on calendar August. Two properties of the table to read with it: a column is not one calendar week across rows (issue-1's +1 week is Aug 10-17, 2026, issue-7's is Sep 21-28, 2026), and issue-1's +1 week overlaps its own search window (Aug 5-12, 2026) by 2 days, Monthly-1's overlaps calendar August by 1 day (Aug 31).", "chart": "chart_survival.png", "rows": [ { "generation": "Config Watch #1", "published": "2026-08-13", "own_window": "Aug 5-12, 2026", "cards": 12, "weeks": [ { "k": 1, "positive": 6, "n": 12, "share": 0.5, "source_issue": "Config Watch #2 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 10-17, 2026" }, { "k": 2, "positive": 11, "n": 12, "share": 0.9166666666666666, "source_issue": "Config Watch #3 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 17-24, 2026" }, { "k": 3, "positive": 1, "n": 12, "share": 0.08333333333333333, "source_issue": "Config Watch #4 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 24-31, 2026" }, { "k": 4, "positive": 2, "n": 12, "share": 0.16666666666666666, "source_issue": "Config Watch #5 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 31-Sep 7, 2026" }, { "k": 5, "positive": 3, "n": 12, "share": 0.25, "source_issue": "Config Watch #6 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 7-14, 2026" }, { "k": 6, "positive": 11, "n": 12, "share": 0.9166666666666666, "source_issue": "Config Watch #7 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 14-21, 2026" }, { "k": 7, "positive": 1, "n": 12, "share": 0.08333333333333333, "source_issue": "Config Watch #8 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 21-28, 2026" } ], "calendar_month": { "positive": 2, "n": 12, "share": 0.16666666666666666, "window": "Sep 1-30, 2026" }, "cohort": "cw1", "previous_calendar_month": { "positive": 8, "n": 12, "share": 0.6666666666666666, "window": "Aug 1-31, 2026", "source_issue": "Monthly Config Watch #1" } }, { "generation": "Config Watch #2", "published": "2026-08-19", "own_window": "Aug 10-17, 2026", "cards": 8, "weeks": [ { "k": 1, "positive": 8, "n": 8, "share": 1.0, "source_issue": "Config Watch #3 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 17-24, 2026" }, { "k": 2, "positive": 4, "n": 8, "share": 0.5, "source_issue": "Config Watch #4 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 24-31, 2026" }, { "k": 3, "positive": 1, "n": 8, "share": 0.125, "source_issue": "Config Watch #5 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 31-Sep 7, 2026" }, { "k": 4, "positive": 2, "n": 8, "share": 0.25, "source_issue": "Config Watch #6 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 7-14, 2026" }, { "k": 5, "positive": 5, "n": 8, "share": 0.625, "source_issue": "Config Watch #7 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 14-21, 2026" }, { "k": 6, "positive": 6, "n": 8, "share": 0.75, "source_issue": "Config Watch #8 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 21-28, 2026" }, null ], "calendar_month": { "positive": 0, "n": 8, "share": 0.0, "window": "Sep 1-30, 2026" }, "cohort": "cw2", "previous_calendar_month": { "positive": 8, "n": 8, "share": 1.0, "window": "Aug 1-31, 2026", "source_issue": "Monthly Config Watch #1" } }, { "generation": "Config Watch #3", "published": "2026-08-26", "own_window": "Aug 17-24, 2026", "cards": 6, "weeks": [ { "k": 1, "positive": 2, "n": 6, "share": 0.3333333333333333, "source_issue": "Config Watch #4 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 24-31, 2026" }, { "k": 2, "positive": 2, "n": 6, "share": 0.3333333333333333, "source_issue": "Config Watch #5 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 31-Sep 7, 2026" }, { "k": 3, "positive": 2, "n": 6, "share": 0.3333333333333333, "source_issue": "Config Watch #6 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 7-14, 2026" }, { "k": 4, "positive": 5, "n": 6, "share": 0.8333333333333334, "source_issue": "Config Watch #7 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 14-21, 2026" }, { "k": 5, "positive": 2, "n": 6, "share": 0.3333333333333333, "source_issue": "Config Watch #8 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 21-28, 2026" }, null, null ], "calendar_month": { "positive": 0, "n": 6, "share": 0.0, "window": "Sep 1-30, 2026" }, "cohort": "cw3", "previous_calendar_month": { "positive": 4, "n": 6, "share": 0.6666666666666666, "window": "Aug 1-31, 2026", "source_issue": "Monthly Config Watch #1" } }, { "generation": "Config Watch #4", "published": "2026-09-04", "own_window": "Aug 24-31, 2026", "cards": 5, "weeks": [ { "k": 1, "positive": 1, "n": 5, "share": 0.2, "source_issue": "Config Watch #5 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 31-Sep 7, 2026" }, { "k": 2, "positive": 0, "n": 5, "share": 0.0, "source_issue": "Config Watch #6 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 7-14, 2026" }, { "k": 3, "positive": 4, "n": 5, "share": 0.8, "source_issue": "Config Watch #7 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 14-21, 2026" }, { "k": 4, "positive": 4, "n": 5, "share": 0.8, "source_issue": "Config Watch #8 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 21-28, 2026" }, null, null, null ], "calendar_month": { "positive": 2, "n": 5, "share": 0.4, "window": "Sep 1-30, 2026" }, "cohort": "cw4", "previous_calendar_month": null }, { "generation": "Monthly Config Watch #1", "published": "2026-09-04", "own_window": "Aug 1-31, 2026", "cards": 3, "weeks": [ { "k": 1, "positive": 2, "n": 3, "share": 0.6666666666666666, "source_issue": "Config Watch #5 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 31-Sep 7, 2026" }, { "k": 2, "positive": 0, "n": 3, "share": 0.0, "source_issue": "Config Watch #6 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 7-14, 2026" }, { "k": 3, "positive": 1, "n": 3, "share": 0.3333333333333333, "source_issue": "Config Watch #7 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 14-21, 2026" }, { "k": 4, "positive": 3, "n": 3, "share": 1.0, "source_issue": "Config Watch #8 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 21-28, 2026" }, null, null, null ], "calendar_month": { "positive": 1, "n": 3, "share": 0.3333333333333333, "window": "Sep 1-30, 2026" }, "cohort": "cwm1", "previous_calendar_month": null }, { "generation": "Config Watch #5", "published": "2026-09-09", "own_window": "Aug 31-Sep 7, 2026", "cards": 4, "weeks": [ { "k": 1, "positive": 1, "n": 4, "share": 0.25, "source_issue": "Config Watch #6 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 7-14, 2026" }, { "k": 2, "positive": 3, "n": 4, "share": 0.75, "source_issue": "Config Watch #7 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 14-21, 2026" }, { "k": 3, "positive": 2, "n": 4, "share": 0.5, "source_issue": "Config Watch #8 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 21-28, 2026" }, null, null, null, null ], "calendar_month": { "positive": 2, "n": 4, "share": 0.5, "window": "Sep 1-30, 2026" }, "cohort": "cw5", "previous_calendar_month": null }, { "generation": "Config Watch #6", "published": "2026-09-16", "own_window": "Sep 7-14, 2026", "cards": 5, "weeks": [ { "k": 1, "positive": 4, "n": 5, "share": 0.8, "source_issue": "Config Watch #7 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 14-21, 2026" }, { "k": 2, "positive": 2, "n": 5, "share": 0.4, "source_issue": "Config Watch #8 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 21-28, 2026" }, null, null, null, null, null ], "calendar_month": { "positive": 4, "n": 5, "share": 0.8, "window": "Sep 1-30, 2026" }, "cohort": "cw6", "previous_calendar_month": null }, { "generation": "Config Watch #7", "published": "2026-09-23", "own_window": "Sep 14-21, 2026", "cards": 5, "weeks": [ { "k": 1, "positive": 4, "n": 5, "share": 0.8, "source_issue": "Config Watch #8 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 21-28, 2026" }, null, null, null, null, null, null ], "calendar_month": { "positive": 4, "n": 5, "share": 0.8, "window": "Sep 1-30, 2026" }, "cohort": "cw7", "previous_calendar_month": null }, { "generation": "Config Watch #8", "published": "2026-10-01", "own_window": "Sep 21-28, 2026", "cards": 5, "weeks": [ null, null, null, null, null, null, null ], "calendar_month": { "positive": 2, "n": 5, "share": 0.4, "window": "Sep 1-30, 2026" }, "cohort": "cw8", "previous_calendar_month": null }, { "generation": "Live presets", "published": null, "own_window": null, "cards": 4, "weeks": [ { "k": 1, "positive": 2, "n": 2, "share": 1.0, "source_issue": "Config Watch #3 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 17-24, 2026" }, { "k": 2, "positive": 2, "n": 4, "share": 0.5, "source_issue": "Config Watch #4 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 24-31, 2026" }, { "k": 3, "positive": 1, "n": 4, "share": 0.25, "source_issue": "Config Watch #5 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 31-Sep 7, 2026" }, { "k": 4, "positive": 3, "n": 4, "share": 0.75, "source_issue": "Config Watch #6 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 7-14, 2026" }, { "k": 5, "positive": 3, "n": 4, "share": 0.75, "source_issue": "Config Watch #7 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 14-21, 2026" }, { "k": 6, "positive": 2, "n": 4, "share": 0.5, "source_issue": "Config Watch #8 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 21-28, 2026" }, null ], "calendar_month": { "positive": 0, "n": 4, "share": 0.0, "window": "Sep 1-30, 2026" }, "cohort": "preset", "previous_calendar_month": { "positive": 4, "n": 4, "share": 1.0, "window": "Aug 1-31, 2026", "source_issue": "Monthly Config Watch #1" } } ], "k_max": 7, "source_tables": [ { "source_issue": "Config Watch #2 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 10-17, 2026" }, { "source_issue": "Config Watch #3 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 17-24, 2026" }, { "source_issue": "Config Watch #4 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 24-31, 2026" }, { "source_issue": "Config Watch #5 walk-forward", "window": "Aug 31-Sep 7, 2026" }, { "source_issue": "Config Watch #6 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 7-14, 2026" }, { "source_issue": "Config Watch #7 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 14-21, 2026" }, { "source_issue": "Config Watch #8 walk-forward", "window": "Sep 21-28, 2026" } ], "drawn_generations": [ "Config Watch #1", "Config Watch #2", "Config Watch #3", "Config Watch #4", "Monthly Config Watch #1", "Config Watch #5", "Config Watch #6", "Config Watch #7" ] }, "survivors_vs_faded": { "definition": "Config Watch #8's two-window verdict on the 48 replayed cards, split into survivors and faded, described on the traits of the frozen query and on the fresh-week replay statistics of that issue.", "intro": "Config Watch #8 replayed 48 past cards on two fresh windows (Sep 21-28, 2026 and Aug 31-Sep 28, 2026) and its standing rule kept 10 of them (net-positive on both) and dropped 38. This table puts the two groups side by side on the traits recorded for every card: the frozen query (horizon/timeframe, council size, universe size, calibration, minimum confidence, table stake, membership) and the fresh-week replay statistics. Neither window decided alone: 24 cards cleared the week, 16 the four weeks and 10 both. 10 rows against 38 rows: this is a description of two groups, not a test, and no trait here is claimed to cause survival.", "note": "Counts are cards, not simulations, and each card contributes once per row; the membership row counts a model once for every card it appears in, so it sums above the group size. Medians are over each group's Config Watch #8 fresh-week (Sep 21-28, 2026) replay -- one of the two windows the verdict needed, and the R2 median is taken over the rows that have one (10 of 10 survivors, 37 of 38 faded: a replay with too few days carries no fit). On Config Watch #8's four-week window (Aug 31-Sep 28, 2026) the same medians read maxDD 39.7% against 58.0% and win rate 66.4% against 52.0%. On this issue's calendar month the same two groups read 7 of 10 and 8 of 38 net-positive.", "split_source": "config-watch-2026-09-23.json oos_walk_forward verdicts", "survivors": { "n": 10, "codes": [ "cw1-7ds1", "cw2-30d3", "cw4-m301", "cw4-wk1", "cw4-wk2", "cw5-wk1", "cw7-m301", "cw7-m302", "cw7-s1", "cw7-wk1" ], "traits": { "FH/TF": "1d/1d (4), 4h/1h (4), 1h/1h (1), 4h/4h,1h (1)", "Council size": "4 models (4), 3 models (3), solo (2), 2 models (1)", "Universe size": "2 coins (9), 5 coins (1)", "Calibrate ON": "4 of 10 (40.0%)", "Min confidence": "60 (9), 0 (1)", "Table stake": "$450 (8), $200 (1), $375 (1)", "Median maxDD": "19.1%", "Median win rate": "68.0%", "Median smoothness R2": "0.359", "Model membership": "gemini (9), gpt (5), deepseek (4), opus (4), qwen (4), fable (3)" }, "net_positive_this_month": 7 }, "faded": { "n": 38, "codes": [ "cw1-30d1", "cw1-30d2", "cw1-30d3", "cw1-30ds1", "cw1-30ds2", "cw1-30ds3", "cw1-7d1", "cw1-7d2", "cw1-7d3", "cw1-7ds2", "cw1-7ds3", "cw2-30d1", "cw2-30d2", "cw2-30ds1", "cw2-7d1", "cw2-7d2", "cw2-pt1", "cw2-pt2", "cw3-m301", "cw3-m302", "cw3-s1", "cw3-s2", "cw3-wk1", "cw3-wk2", "cw4-m302", "cw4-s1", "cw5-m301", "cw5-s1", "cw5-wk2", "cw6-m301", "cw6-m302", "cw6-s1", "cw6-wk1", "cw6-wk2", "cw7-wk2", "cwm1-m1", "cwm1-m2", "cwm1-s1" ], "traits": { "FH/TF": "4h/1h (17), 1d/1d (10), 4h/4h (4), 1d/1d,4h (3), 1d/4h (2), 4h/4h,1h (2)", "Council size": "solo (13), 4 models (10), 3 models (9), 5 models (4), 2 models (2)", "Universe size": "2 coins (29), 3 coins (3), 1 coin (2), 4 coins (2), 5 coins (2)", "Calibrate ON": "5 of 38 (13.2%)", "Min confidence": "60 (32), 0 (2), 50 (2), 55 (2)", "Table stake": "$450 (33), $300 (3), $200 (1), $250 (1)", "Median maxDD": "35.2%", "Median win rate": "61.5%", "Median smoothness R2": "0.825", "Model membership": "gemini (22), deepseek (20), opus (20), fable (14), gpt (13), qwen (8), grok (7)" }, "net_positive_this_month": 8 }, "deciding_window": null, "medians_window": { "key": "WK", "label": "Sep 21-28, 2026" }, "positive_by_window": { "WK": 24, "M30": 16, "both": 10 }, "medians_other_window": { "key": "M30", "label": "Aug 31-Sep 28, 2026", "survivors": { "max_dd_pct": 39.7, "wr": 0.663787 }, "faded": { "max_dd_pct": 58.0, "wr": 0.5202595 } } }, "m30_vs_month": { "definition": "Config Watch #8's linked four-week (M30) cards and this issue's calendar-month cards, each measured on both windows of this collect. A Config Watch #8 card is read from this collect's replay of its published query (the number it printed from its own night collect is kept as published_home); a card of this issue is read from its own published stats on its home window, from the stability row's by_window block, from this collect's replay of the same configuration, or from the matched calibration pair the collect exported for that window; the source is on every cell. A card that none of them carries on a window has no cell there.", "intro": "Config Watch #8 published two councils on its four-week M30 window (Aug 31-Sep 28, 2026, 28 days, edge Mon Sep 28 00:00 UTC); this issue publishes two councils and one solo on the calendar month (Sep 1-30, 2026, edge Thu Oct 1 00:00 UTC). This collect replays Config Watch #8's cards on both of its windows, and the two windows share 27 days -- Aug 31 lies in M30 only and Sep 28-30 in the month only. The table measures all five cards on both windows: M30 is the four-week window and Month is this issue's.", "note": "Every paired column reads M30 first, calendar month second; Cls = closed trades. cw8-m301 and cwm2-m2 are one configuration; cw8-m302 and cwm2-m1 are one configuration, so those rows carry the same pair of numbers; the five rows are three distinct configurations. Config Watch #8's rows are this collect's replay of the published query on both windows; Config Watch #8 printed cw8-m301 +$1,018.6 and cw8-m302 +$943.0 for them from its own night collect, and this collect's replay reproduces each published figure on the same four weeks. Place on each window's mature net board (councils and solos in one list, as the collect ranked them): cw8-m301 1st on M30 and 2nd on the month; cw8-m302 2nd on M30 and 1st on the month; cwm2-m1 2nd on M30 and 1st on the month; cwm2-m2 1st on M30 and 2nd on the month; cwm2-s1 24th on M30 and 7th on the month. Every cell is in this collect. Boards, the replay set and a pair sample are what the collect exports, not every cell on both windows.", "reads": "All five rows can be read on both windows, and they differ by $3.2 to $211.4 between them. cw8-m301 makes +$1,018.6 on M30 and +$1,021.7 on the month (+$3.2, on 90 closed trades against 91); cw8-m302 makes +$943.0 on M30 and +$1,041.5 on the month (+$98.5, on 97 closed trades against 99); cwm2-m1 makes +$943.0 on M30 and +$1,041.5 on the month (+$98.5, on 97 closed trades against 99); cwm2-m2 makes +$1,018.6 on M30 and +$1,021.7 on the month (+$3.2, on 90 closed trades against 91); cwm2-s1 makes +$711.8 on M30 and +$923.2 on the month (+$211.4, on 204 closed trades against 199). 3 of them are larger on the window their own issue published them on.", "windows": { "M30": { "from": "2026-08-31", "to": "2026-09-28", "label": "Aug 31-Sep 28, 2026", "issue": "Config Watch #8" }, "MONTH": { "from": "2026-09-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "label": "Sep 1-30, 2026", "issue": "Monthly Config Watch #2" } }, "shared_configurations": [ [ "cw8-m301", "cwm2-m2" ], [ "cw8-m302", "cwm2-m1" ] ], "distinct_configurations": 3, "rows": [ { "label": "cw8-m301", "shortlink_code": "cw8-m301", "issue": "Config Watch #8", "home_window": "M30", "sim_index": 2668, "branch": "council", "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "tokens_short": "SOL+XRP", "n_coins": 2, "fh_tf": "4h/1h", "stake": 450, "calibrate": false, "signature": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&lev=10&max_diff_side=0&max_sideways=2&members=claude-fable-5,claude-opus-5,gemini-3.1-pro,qwen-3.8-max&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=reenter&sl_shift=75&stake=450&steps=50:40,100:60&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&tokens=SOL,XRP&tp_shift=-10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0", "rank_on_mature_net_board": { "M30": 1, "MONTH": 2 }, "M30": { "net_usd": 1018.5953, "net_str": "+$1,018.6", "wr": 0.725275, "wr_str": "72.5%", "dd": 48.5, "dd_str": "48.5%", "trades": 91, "closed": 91, "skipped_nofunds": 11, "smooth_r2": 0.824374, "source": "stability board" }, "MONTH": { "net_usd": 1021.7461, "net_str": "+$1,021.7", "wr": 0.722222, "wr_str": "72.2%", "dd": 47.7, "dd_str": "47.7%", "trades": 90, "closed": 90, "skipped_nofunds": 10, "smooth_r2": 0.820873, "source": "stability board" }, "delta_month_minus_m30": 3.150800000000004, "published_home": { "window": "M30", "net_usd": 1018.5953, "net_str": "+$1,018.6", "closed": 91, "source": "Config Watch #8 as published (its own night collect)" }, "replay_minus_published": 0.0 }, { "label": "cw8-m302", "shortlink_code": "cw8-m302", "issue": "Config Watch #8", "home_window": "M30", "sim_index": 2788, "branch": "council", "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "tokens_short": "BNB+XRP", "n_coins": 2, "fh_tf": "4h/1h", "stake": 450, "calibrate": false, "signature": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&lev=10&max_diff_side=0&max_sideways=2&members=claude-fable-5,claude-opus-5,gemini-3.1-pro,qwen-3.8-max&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=reenter&sl_shift=75&stake=450&steps=50:40,100:60&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&tokens=BNB,XRP&tp_shift=-10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0", "rank_on_mature_net_board": { "M30": 2, "MONTH": 1 }, "M30": { "net_usd": 943.0362, "net_str": "+$943.0", "wr": 0.69697, "wr_str": "69.7%", "dd": 37.7, "dd_str": "37.7%", "trades": 99, "closed": 99, "skipped_nofunds": 1, "smooth_r2": 0.835774, "source": "stability board" }, "MONTH": { "net_usd": 1041.5484, "net_str": "+$1,041.5", "wr": 0.71134, "wr_str": "71.1%", "dd": 37.7, "dd_str": "37.7%", "trades": 97, "closed": 97, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "smooth_r2": 0.796978, "source": "stability board" }, "delta_month_minus_m30": 98.5121999999999, "published_home": { "window": "M30", "net_usd": 943.0362, "net_str": "+$943.0", "closed": 99, "source": "Config Watch #8 as published (its own night collect)" }, "replay_minus_published": 0.0 }, { "label": "cwm2-m1", "shortlink_code": "cwm2-m1", "issue": "this issue", "home_window": "MONTH", "sim_index": 7089, "branch": "council", "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "tokens_short": "BNB+XRP", "n_coins": 2, "fh_tf": "4h/1h", "stake": 450, "calibrate": false, "signature": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&lev=10&max_diff_side=0&max_sideways=2&members=claude-fable-5,claude-opus-5,gemini-3.1-pro,qwen-3.8-max&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=reenter&sl_shift=75&stake=450&steps=50:40,100:60&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&tokens=BNB,XRP&tp_shift=-10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0", "rank_on_mature_net_board": { "M30": 2, "MONTH": 1 }, "M30": { "net_usd": 943.0362, "net_str": "+$943.0", "wr": 0.69697, "wr_str": "69.7%", "dd": 37.7, "dd_str": "37.7%", "trades": 99, "closed": 99, "skipped_nofunds": 1, "smooth_r2": 0.835774, "source": "stability board" }, "MONTH": { "net_usd": 1041.5484, "net_str": "+$1,041.5", "wr": 0.71134, "wr_str": "71.1%", "dd": 37.7, "dd_str": "37.7%", "trades": 97, "closed": 97, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "smooth_r2": null, "source": "published card" }, "delta_month_minus_m30": 98.5121999999999, "published_home": null, "replay_minus_published": null }, { "label": "cwm2-m2", "shortlink_code": "cwm2-m2", "issue": "this issue", "home_window": "MONTH", "sim_index": 6969, "branch": "council", "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max" ], "tokens_short": "SOL+XRP", "n_coins": 2, "fh_tf": "4h/1h", "stake": 450, "calibrate": false, "signature": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&lev=10&max_diff_side=0&max_sideways=2&members=claude-fable-5,claude-opus-5,gemini-3.1-pro,qwen-3.8-max&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=reenter&sl_shift=75&stake=450&steps=50:40,100:60&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&tokens=SOL,XRP&tp_shift=-10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0", "rank_on_mature_net_board": { "M30": 1, "MONTH": 2 }, "M30": { "net_usd": 1018.5953, "net_str": "+$1,018.6", "wr": 0.725275, "wr_str": "72.5%", "dd": 48.5, "dd_str": "48.5%", "trades": 91, "closed": 91, "skipped_nofunds": 11, "smooth_r2": 0.824374, "source": "stability board" }, "MONTH": { "net_usd": 1021.7461, "net_str": "+$1,021.7", "wr": 0.722222, "wr_str": "72.2%", "dd": 47.7, "dd_str": "47.7%", "trades": 90, "closed": 90, "skipped_nofunds": 10, "smooth_r2": null, "source": "published card" }, "delta_month_minus_m30": 3.150800000000004, "published_home": null, "replay_minus_published": null }, { "label": "cwm2-s1", "shortlink_code": "cwm2-s1", "issue": "this issue", "home_window": "MONTH", "sim_index": 9789, "branch": "solo", "members": [ "gemini-3.1-pro" ], "tokens_short": "SOL+XRP", "n_coins": 2, "fh_tf": "4h/1h", "stake": 450, "calibrate": true, "signature": "be=1&calibrate=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&lev=10&max_diff_side=0&max_sideways=0&members=gemini-3.1-pro&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=reenter&sl_shift=75&stake=450&steps=50:40,100:60&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&tokens=SOL,XRP&tp_shift=-10&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&variant=v0", "rank_on_mature_net_board": { "M30": 24, "MONTH": 7 }, "M30": { "net_usd": 711.8048, "net_str": "+$711.8", "wr": 0.839196, "wr_str": "83.9%", "dd": 33.2, "dd_str": "33.2%", "trades": 199, "closed": 199, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "smooth_r2": 0.644396, "source": "stability board" }, "MONTH": { "net_usd": 923.2359, "net_str": "+$923.2", "wr": 0.857843, "wr_str": "85.8%", "dd": 33.0, "dd_str": "33.0%", "trades": 204, "closed": 204, "skipped_nofunds": 3, "smooth_r2": null, "source": "published card" }, "delta_month_minus_m30": 211.43110000000001, "published_home": null, "replay_minus_published": null } ], "window_days": { "shared": 27, "shared_label": "Sep 1-27", "m30_only": "Aug 31", "month_only": "Sep 28-30" }, "cell_sources": { "stability board": 7, "published card": 3 } }, "verdict_block": { "definition": "The page-1 block of the monthly series: three readings of the calendar month, each checked against the four published Config Watch issues on the fresh week each of them published. An issue agrees when its cell shows the same reading; a cell with no comparable number reads n/a, never agrees and leaves the count.", "caption": "WEEKLY EVIDENCE -> MONTHLY VERDICT (rule below)", "rule": "Verdict rule: each row states one reading of the month; an issue agrees when its own fresh week shows the same reading (same side of the line, or the same name). Confirmed = 3 or 4 of the 4 issues agree with the month; Inconclusive = 2; Rejected = 0 or 1. A cell that reads n/a has no comparable number in that issue: it never agrees and leaves the count, so a row with one n/a is scored out of three and Confirmed there reads 3 of 3. Issue cells come from the four published issues' own open data, each on the fresh week it published; the month column is this collect's calendar-September pull.", "sources_note": "Sources, cell by cell. Row 1 counts the replays each issue ran on its own fresh week -- Config Watch #5 8 of 34 (Aug 31-Sep 7, 2026), #6 8 of 38 (Sep 7-14, 2026), #7 33 of 43 (Sep 14-21, 2026), #8 24 of 48 (Sep 21-28, 2026) -- against 17 of 53 on the month in the walk-forward table below. Row 2 reads the coin universe of the top council configuration on each issue's fresh-week board, and here the top council card of the month. Row 3 is the share of matched calibrate-ON / calibrate-OFF pairs the axis improved on that fresh week, over the whole stage-2 grid in every column: 1,403 pairs in issue #5, 1,334 in #6, 1,452 in #7 and 1,468 in #8, against 1,446 whole-grid pairs on the month. No cell reads n/a this issue: all four issues carry a replay table and a calibration axis. Config Watch #5's week opens on Aug 31, before the month, so 6 of its 7 days are September days. The four weeks cover 27 of the month's 30 days; Sep 28-30 lie after Config Watch #8's week.", "header": [ "Metric", "CW#5 wk", "CW#6 wk", "CW#7 wk", "CW#8 wk", "Month", "Verdict" ], "widths_mm": [ 36, 23, 23, 23, 23, 18, 28 ], "issues_source": "the four published Config Watch issues' open data, each on the fresh window it published (the calendar week, WK, for #5, #6, #7 and #8)", "month_source": "this issue's calendar-September pull of the month collect", "calibration_pairs_per_cell": { "CW#5": 1403, "CW#6": 1334, "CW#7": 1452, "CW#8": 1468, "MONTH": 1446 }, "rows": [ { "metric": "Published cards net-positive (majority)", "issues": { "CW#5": { "value": "8/34", "reading": "no majority" }, "CW#6": { "value": "8/38", "reading": "no majority" }, "CW#7": { "value": "33/43", "reading": "majority" }, "CW#8": { "value": "24/48", "reading": "no majority" } }, "month": { "value": "17/53", "reading": "no majority" }, "comparable_issues": 4, "agree_count": 3, "verdict": "Confirmed (3/4)" }, { "metric": "Best council universe", "issues": { "CW#5": { "value": "SOL+XRP", "reading": "SOL+XRP" }, "CW#6": { "value": "SOL+XRP", "reading": "SOL+XRP" }, "CW#7": { "value": "SOL+XRP", "reading": "SOL+XRP" }, "CW#8": { "value": "SOL+XRP", "reading": "SOL+XRP" } }, "month": { "value": "BNB+XRP", "reading": "BNB+XRP" }, "comparable_issues": 4, "agree_count": 0, "verdict": "Rejected (0/4)" }, { "metric": "Calibration helps (matched pairs)", "issues": { "CW#5": { "value": "57.8%", "reading": "above 50%" }, "CW#6": { "value": "49.9%", "reading": "below 50%" }, "CW#7": { "value": "25.8%", "reading": "below 50%" }, "CW#8": { "value": "36.5%", "reading": "below 50%" } }, "month": { "value": "65.6%", "reading": "above 50%" }, "comparable_issues": 4, "agree_count": 1, "verdict": "Rejected (1/4)" } ], "weeks_against_month": { "CW#5": { "from": "2026-08-31", "to": "2026-09-07", "label": "Aug 31-Sep 7, 2026", "days": 7, "days_in_month": 6 }, "CW#6": { "from": "2026-09-07", "to": "2026-09-14", "label": "Sep 7-14, 2026", "days": 7, "days_in_month": 7 }, "CW#7": { "from": "2026-09-14", "to": "2026-09-21", "label": "Sep 14-21, 2026", "days": 7, "days_in_month": 7 }, "CW#8": { "from": "2026-09-21", "to": "2026-09-28", "label": "Sep 21-28, 2026", "days": 7, "days_in_month": 7 } }, "month_days_in_weeks": 27, "month_days_after_weeks": { "days": 3, "label": "Sep 28-30" } } }