{ "report": { "title": "Config Watch #3", "slug": "config-watch-2026-08-19", "series_label": "WEEKLY ยท CONFIG WATCH", "issue_number": 3, "new_series": false, "issue_date": "2026-08-26", "language": "English", "status": "DRAFT -- owner review pending; sandbox short links minted at publish (see sandbox_links)", "windows": { "WK": { "from": "2026-08-17", "to": "2026-08-24", "label": "Aug 17-24, 2026", "human": "Mon Aug 17 00:00 -> Sun Aug 23 23:59 UTC", "monday_aligned": true }, "M30": { "from": "2026-07-27", "to": "2026-08-24", "label": "Jul 27-Aug 24, 2026", "human": "Mon Jul 27 -> Sun Aug 23 UTC (4 full weeks)", "monday_aligned": true } }, "frozen_edge": "2026-08-24T00:00:00Z", "window_note": "Both windows are frozen calendar weeks. Slots fall inside the window; trades settle past its right edge at their horizon (2-3 day luft), the same engine mechanic used since issue #1 and by the live presets.", "methodology_version": "v1.1 + Config Watch amendments", "methodology_approval": "2026-08-12", "methodology_hash": "e66c7e8c864a2233", "amendments_formalization": "slated for methodology v1.2", "generated_at": "2026-08-26T12:53:31Z", "engine": "1.1", "models": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gpt-5.6-sol", "deepseek-v4-pro", "gemini-3.1-pro", "qwen-3.8-max", "grok-4.6" ], "grok_note": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era)", "coins": [ "BTC", "ETH", "SOL", "BNB", "XRP" ] }, "criteria": { "stake_table": { "1": 450, "2": 450, "3": 300, "4": 250, "5": 200 }, "stake_sweep_by_n": { "1": [ 300, 375 ], "2": [ 300, 375 ], "3": [ 225, 375 ], "4": [ 200, 300 ], "5": [ 150, 250 ] }, "maturity_min_closed": { "WK": 15, "M30": 20 }, "calmar_like": "net_usd / max(max_dd_pct, 1.0), net>0 only", "stability": "mature net top-40 on BOTH windows", "concentrated_rule": "stake > table cap -> marked, excluded from headline boards" }, "counters": { "stages": { "s1": 952, "s4cw2": 16, "s4cw2o": 8, "s4pre": 4, "s2p": 78, "s4cw1": 24, "s2": 8544, "s2b": 160, "s3b": 80, "s5t": 120, "s6t": 1110, "s6tc": 40 }, "stage_groups": { "Scan (s1)": 952, "Systematic grid (s2)": 8544, "Refinement: ladder + stake sweep (s2b+s3b)": 240, "Preset neighbourhood grid (s2p)": 78, "Per-ticker probes (s5t)": 120, "Dedicated per-ticker (s6t+s6tc)": 1150, "OOS replays (s4cw2+s4cw2o+s4cw1+s4pre)": 52 }, "sims_total": 11136, "errors": 0, "zero_trade": 1794, "oos_replay_sims": 52, "phases_done": [ "p1_s1", "p2_ext", "p3_s2", "p4_s3a", "p5_s3b", "p6_s5t", "p7_s6t", "p8_s6tc" ], "scale_note_vs_issue2": "Issue #2 ran 14,861 simulations -- a 9,901 overnight pipeline plus a 4,960-simulation dedicated per-ticker search added the same day. Issue #3 runs 11,136 in ONE pipeline: main grid 8,544 vs 8,480, refinement 318 vs 269, OOS replays 52 vs 80, dedicated per-ticker 1,150 vs 4,960 -- the whole reduction falls on the dedicated per-coin branch. A same-day read-only extras pass (w167) added 56 verification sims outside this count (12 equity replays + 44 baselines); the grid histograms cost zero extra sims.", "extras_pass": { "provenance": "w167, same day, read-only, engine 1.1; not counted in sims_total", "equity_replays": 12, "baseline_sims": 44, "grid_hist_extra_sims": 0 } }, "key_finding": { "label": "OBSERVATION (the OOS verdict flips)", "text": "On a market that came back to life, out-of-sample decay stopped: all 8 cards Config Watch #2 published are net-positive on the fresh week -- its 7d champion made +$1,861.1 at 83.3% win rate and 0.0% drawdown -- and the fresh search still beat every one of them (+$2,175.1)." }, "market_context": { "source": "weekly wave #3 (2026-08-17 issue); not re-tabulated here", "field_accuracy_pct": { "prev": 43.8, "this": 54.1 }, "mean_abs_1d_move_pct": { "prev": 0.73, "this": 4.28 }, "note": "Every number in this issue is conditioned on this one regime." }, "branches": { "WK": { "window": "Aug 17-24, 2026", "maturity_min_closed": 15, "mature_pool": 2433, "council_cards": [ { "rank": 1, "sim_index": 2746, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "WK", "members": [ "claude-opus-5", "deepseek-v4-pro", "gemini-3.1-pro" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "n_coins": 2, "fh": "4h", "tf": "1h", "stake": 450, "concentrated": false, "calibrate": false, "knobs": { "ladder": "50:40,100:60", "be": true, "tp_shift": "-10", "sl_shift": "75", "min_conf": "60", "conf_mode": "each", "tp_sl_source": "farthest", "max_sideways": "1", "max_diff_side": "0", "same_side": "reenter", "opposite": "reverse", "trade_mode": "position", "time_stop": "none" }, "stats": { "net_usd": 2175.106, "wr": 0.885714, "max_dd_pct": 0.0, "profit_factor": 20.3329, "trades": 35, "closed": 35, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 157.5, "equity_usd": 3175.106, "avg_win_usd": 73.794, "avg_loss_usd": -28.127 }, "by_symbol": null, "funnel": null, "flag_skipped": false, "calmar_like": 2175.106, "query": "members=claude-opus-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0" }, { "rank": 2, "sim_index": 3260, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "WK", "members": [ "claude-opus-5", "deepseek-v4-pro", "gemini-3.1-pro", "grok-4.6" ], "members_note": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era)", "tokens": [ "BTC", "ETH" ], "n_coins": 2, "fh": "4h", "tf": "1h", "stake": 450, "concentrated": false, "calibrate": false, "knobs": { "ladder": "50:40,100:60", "be": true, "tp_shift": "-10", "sl_shift": "75", "min_conf": "60", "conf_mode": "each", "tp_sl_source": "farthest", "max_sideways": "1", "max_diff_side": "0", "same_side": "reenter", "opposite": "reverse", "trade_mode": "position", "time_stop": "none" }, "stats": { "net_usd": 837.6111, "wr": 0.961538, "max_dd_pct": 1.1, "profit_factor": 12.1126, "trades": 26, "closed": 26, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 117.0, "equity_usd": 1837.6111, "avg_win_usd": 36.5194, "avg_loss_usd": -75.375 }, "by_symbol": null, "funnel": null, "flag_skipped": false, "calmar_like": 761.4646, "query": "members=claude-opus-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cgrok-4.6&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0" } ], "solo_cards": [ { "rank": 1, "sim_index": 4728, "stage": "s2", "branch": "solo", "window": "WK", "members": [ "gemini-3.1-pro" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "n_coins": 2, "fh": "4h", "tf": "4h", "stake": 450, "concentrated": false, "calibrate": false, "knobs": { "ladder": "50:40,100:60", "be": true, "tp_shift": "-10", "sl_shift": "75", "min_conf": "60", "conf_mode": "each", "tp_sl_source": "median", "max_sideways": "0", "max_diff_side": "0", "same_side": "reenter", "opposite": "reverse", "trade_mode": "position", "time_stop": "none" }, "stats": { "net_usd": 1604.2534, "wr": 0.631579, "max_dd_pct": 8.3, "profit_factor": 2.2577, "trades": 57, "closed": 57, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 1, "fees_usd": 256.5, "equity_usd": 2604.2534, "avg_win_usd": 79.9958, "avg_loss_usd": -60.7426 }, "by_symbol": [ { "symbol": "SOL", "net_usd": 957.0446, "closed": 33 }, { "symbol": "XRP", "net_usd": 647.2088, "closed": 24 } ], "funnel": { "slots": 96, "quorum": 58, "traded": 58 }, "flag_skipped": true, "calmar_like": 193.2835, "query": "members=gemini-3.1-pro&fh=4h&tf=4h&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=0&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0" }, { "rank": 2, "sim_index": 3864, "stage": "s2", "branch": "solo", "window": "WK", "members": [ "claude-fable-5" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "n_coins": 2, "fh": "4h", "tf": "4h", "stake": 450, "concentrated": false, "calibrate": false, "knobs": { "ladder": "50:40,100:60", "be": true, "tp_shift": "-10", "sl_shift": "75", "min_conf": "60", "conf_mode": "each", "tp_sl_source": "median", "max_sideways": "0", "max_diff_side": "0", "same_side": "reenter", "opposite": "reverse", "trade_mode": "position", "time_stop": "none" }, "stats": { "net_usd": 1440.3574, "wr": 0.794872, "max_dd_pct": 15.1, "profit_factor": 5.4342, "trades": 39, "closed": 39, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 175.5, "equity_usd": 2440.3574, "avg_win_usd": 56.9415, "avg_loss_usd": -40.6035 }, "by_symbol": [ { "symbol": "SOL", "net_usd": 731.5859, "closed": 25 }, { "symbol": "XRP", "net_usd": 708.7715, "closed": 14 } ], "funnel": { "slots": 95, "quorum": 39, "traded": 39 }, "flag_skipped": false, "calmar_like": 95.3879, "query": "members=claude-fable-5&fh=4h&tf=4h&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=0&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0" } ], "card_selection_note": "The net board's top-10 collapsed onto SOL+XRP on this window, so the pairwise-different-universes rule admits exactly one card from it. Card #2 is the best non-SOL+XRP config on this window's mature quality boards.", "net_board_top10": [ { "rank": 1, "sim_index": 2746, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "WK", "members": [ "claude-opus-5", "deepseek-v4-pro", "gemini-3.1-pro" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "n_coins": 2, "fh": "4h", "tf": "1h", "stake": 450, "concentrated": false, "calibrate": false, "knobs": { "ladder": "50:40,100:60", "be": true, "tp_shift": "-10", "sl_shift": "75", "min_conf": "60", "conf_mode": "each", "tp_sl_source": "farthest", "max_sideways": "1", "max_diff_side": "0", "same_side": "reenter", "opposite": "reverse", "trade_mode": "position", "time_stop": "none" }, "stats": { "net_usd": 2175.106, "wr": 0.885714, "max_dd_pct": 0.0, "profit_factor": 20.3329, "trades": 35, "closed": 35, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 157.5, "equity_usd": 3175.106, "avg_win_usd": 73.794, "avg_loss_usd": -28.127 }, "by_symbol": null, "funnel": null, "flag_skipped": false, "calmar_like": 2175.106, "query": "members=claude-opus-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0" }, { "rank": 2, "sim_index": 1156, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "WK", "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "gpt-5.6-sol", "deepseek-v4-pro", "gemini-3.1-pro" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "n_coins": 2, "fh": "4h", "tf": "1h", "stake": 450, "concentrated": false, "calibrate": false, "knobs": { "ladder": "50:40,100:60", "be": true, "tp_shift": "-10", "sl_shift": "75", "min_conf": "60", "conf_mode": "each", "tp_sl_source": "farthest", "max_sideways": "2", "max_diff_side": "0", "same_side": "reenter", "opposite": "reverse", "trade_mode": "position", "time_stop": "none" }, "stats": { "net_usd": 1953.0427, "wr": 0.852941, "max_dd_pct": 10.5, "profit_factor": 6.9249, "trades": 34, "closed": 34, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 153.0, "equity_usd": 2953.0427, "avg_win_usd": 78.713, "avg_loss_usd": -65.9266 }, "by_symbol": [ { "symbol": "SOL", "net_usd": 1107.711, "closed": 20 }, { "symbol": "XRP", "net_usd": 845.3318, "closed": 14 } ], "funnel": { "slots": 96, "quorum": 34, "traded": 34 }, "flag_skipped": false, "calmar_like": 186.0041, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0" }, { "rank": 3, "sim_index": 2280, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "WK", "members": [ "claude-fable-5", "claude-opus-5", "deepseek-v4-pro", "gemini-3.1-pro" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "n_coins": 2, "fh": "4h", "tf": "1h", "stake": 450, "concentrated": false, "calibrate": false, "knobs": { "ladder": "50:40,100:60", "be": true, "tp_shift": "-10", "sl_shift": "75", "min_conf": "60", "conf_mode": "each", "tp_sl_source": "farthest", "max_sideways": "1", "max_diff_side": "0", "same_side": "reenter", "opposite": "reverse", "trade_mode": "position", "time_stop": "none" }, "stats": { "net_usd": 1923.5677, "wr": 0.848485, "max_dd_pct": 0.0, "profit_factor": 8.0073, "trades": 33, "closed": 33, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 0, "fees_usd": 148.5, "equity_usd": 2923.5677, "avg_win_usd": 78.5027, "avg_loss_usd": -54.9016 }, "by_symbol": null, "funnel": null, "flag_skipped": false, "calmar_like": 1923.5677, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0" }, { "rank": 4, "sim_index": 2734, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "WK", "members": [ "claude-opus-5", "deepseek-v4-pro", "gemini-3.1-pro" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "n_coins": 2, "fh": "4h", "tf": "4h", "stake": 450, "concentrated": false, "calibrate": false, "knobs": { "ladder": "50:40,100:60", "be": true, "tp_shift": "-10", "sl_shift": "75", "min_conf": "60", "conf_mode": "each", "tp_sl_source": "farthest", "max_sideways": "2", "max_diff_side": "0", "same_side": "reenter", "opposite": "reverse", "trade_mode": "position", "time_stop": "none" }, "stats": { "net_usd": 1889.2897, "wr": 0.688889, "max_dd_pct": 14.9, "profit_factor": 3.3106, "trades": 45, "closed": 45, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 7, "fees_usd": 202.5, "equity_usd": 2889.2897, "avg_win_usd": 87.3213, "avg_loss_usd": -58.4051 }, "by_symbol": [ { "symbol": "SOL", "net_usd": 1170.2876, "closed": 27 }, { "symbol": "XRP", "net_usd": 719.0022, "closed": 18 } ], "funnel": { "slots": 96, "quorum": 52, "traded": 52 }, "flag_skipped": true, "calmar_like": 126.798, "query": "members=claude-opus-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro&fh=4h&tf=4h&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0" }, { "rank": 5, "sim_index": 2736, "stage": "s2", "branch": "council", "window": "WK", "members": [ "claude-opus-5", "deepseek-v4-pro", "gemini-3.1-pro" ], "members_note": null, "tokens": [ "SOL", "XRP" ], "n_coins": 2, "fh": "4h", "tf": "4h", "stake": 450, "concentrated": false, "calibrate": false, "knobs": { "ladder": "50:40,100:60", "be": true, "tp_shift": "-10", "sl_shift": "75", "min_conf": "60", "conf_mode": "each", "tp_sl_source": "farthest", "max_sideways": "2", "max_diff_side": "1", "same_side": "reenter", "opposite": "reverse", "trade_mode": "position", "time_stop": "none" }, "stats": { "net_usd": 1889.2897, "wr": 0.688889, "max_dd_pct": 14.9, "profit_factor": 3.3106, "trades": 45, "closed": 45, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 7, "fees_usd": 202.5, "equity_usd": 2889.2897, "avg_win_usd": 87.3213, "avg_loss_usd": -58.4051 }, "by_symbol": [ { "symbol": "SOL", "net_usd": 1170.2876, "closed": 27 }, { "symbol": "XRP", "net_usd": 719.0022, "closed": 18 } ], "funnel": { "slots": 96, "quorum": 52, "traded": 52 }, "flag_skipped": true, "calmar_like": 126.798, "query": 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"members=deepseek-v4-pro&fh=4h&tf=1h&tokens=XRP%2CBNB&conf_mode=each&min_conf=55&max_sideways=0&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&same_side=keep&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=80%3A50%2C100%3A50&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=10&sl_shift=50&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "oos": { "M30": { "net_usd": 422.9338, "wr": 0.587302, "max_dd_pct": 37.8, "profit_factor": 1.2802, "trades": 63, "closed": 63, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 30, "fees_usd": 283.5, "equity_usd": 1422.9338, "avg_win_usd": 52.2283, "avg_loss_usd": -58.0582 }, "WK": { "net_usd": 769.365, "wr": 0.634146, "max_dd_pct": 15.1, "profit_factor": 1.8283, "trades": 41, "closed": 41, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 1, "fees_usd": 184.5, "equity_usd": 1769.365, "avg_win_usd": 65.314, "avg_loss_usd": -61.92 } }, "origin_live": null }, { "kind": "cw1", "code": "cw1-7d1", "label": "cw1:cw1-7d1", "owner_preset": null, "branch": "council", "members": [ "claude-fable-5", 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"members=gpt-5.6-sol%2Cclaude-opus-5&fh=4h&tf=1h&tokens=BNB%2CXRP%2CSOL&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=1&tp_sl_source=nearest&trade_mode=position&same_side=keep&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=80%3A50%2C100%3A50&steps_on=1&be=0&tp_shift=10&sl_shift=20&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=300&variant=v0", "oos": { "M30": { "net_usd": 142.515, "wr": 0.478723, "max_dd_pct": 53.7, "profit_factor": 1.0714, "trades": 94, "closed": 94, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 27, "fees_usd": 282.0, "equity_usd": 1142.515, "avg_win_usd": 47.5272, "avg_loss_usd": -40.739 }, "WK": { "net_usd": 435.1855, "wr": 0.528302, "max_dd_pct": 45.2, "profit_factor": 1.3563, "trades": 53, "closed": 53, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 1, "fees_usd": 159.0, "equity_usd": 1435.1855, "avg_win_usd": 59.1579, "avg_loss_usd": -48.8494 } }, "origin_live": null }, { "kind": "cw1", "code": "cw1-7ds1", "label": "cw1:cw1-7ds1", "owner_preset": null, "branch": "solo", "members": [ 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"origin_live": null }, { "kind": "cw1", "code": "cw1-7ds2", "label": "cw1:cw1-7ds2", "owner_preset": null, "branch": "solo", "members": [ "gpt-5.6-sol" ], "members_note": null, "lineage_remap": null, "tokens": [ "XRP", "BNB" ], "n_coins": 2, "stake": 450, "concentrated_by_cw3_table": false, "signature": "members=gpt-5.6-sol&fh=4h&tf=1h&tokens=XRP%2CBNB&conf_mode=each&min_conf=0&max_sideways=0&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&same_side=update&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=30%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=10&sl_shift=50&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "oos": { "M30": { "net_usd": 360.5593, "wr": 0.701031, "max_dd_pct": 49.0, "profit_factor": 1.2627, "trades": 97, "closed": 97, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 15, "fees_usd": 436.5, "equity_usd": 1360.5593, "avg_win_usd": 25.4858, "avg_loss_usd": -47.3267 }, "WK": { "net_usd": 355.0411, "wr": 0.72973, "max_dd_pct": 49.0, "profit_factor": 1.3749, "trades": 37, "closed": 37, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 1, "fees_usd": 166.5, "equity_usd": 1355.0411, "avg_win_usd": 48.2252, "avg_loss_usd": -94.7039 } }, "origin_live": null }, { "kind": "cw1", "code": "cw1-7ds3", "label": "cw1:cw1-7ds3", "owner_preset": null, "branch": "solo", "members": [ "qwen-3.8-max" ], "members_note": null, "lineage_remap": null, "tokens": [ "XRP", "BNB" ], "n_coins": 2, "stake": 450, "concentrated_by_cw3_table": false, "signature": "members=qwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=4h&tokens=XRP%2CBNB&conf_mode=each&min_conf=0&max_sideways=0&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&same_side=update&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=3x&steps=100%3A100&steps_on=0&be=0&tp_shift=10&sl_shift=-10&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0", "oos": { "M30": { "net_usd": 163.0435, "wr": 0.430233, "max_dd_pct": 39.6, "profit_factor": 1.0851, "trades": 86, "closed": 86, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 23, "fees_usd": 387.0, "equity_usd": 1163.0435, "avg_win_usd": 56.1729, "avg_loss_usd": -39.0888 }, "WK": { "net_usd": 300.7891, "wr": 0.454545, "max_dd_pct": 39.6, "profit_factor": 1.3256, "trades": 33, "closed": 33, "open": 0, "skipped_nofunds": 5, "fees_usd": 148.5, "equity_usd": 1300.7891, "avg_win_usd": 81.6381, "avg_loss_usd": -51.3213 } }, "origin_live": null } ], "drift_baseline": { "note": "Same config, same frozen origin window, today's engine and today's forecast history. Issue #2 is NOT restated (snapshot principle); this is the drift measurement.", "rows": [ { "code": "cw2-30d1", "printed_in_issue2": 744.7, "rerun_today": 833.3116, "delta": 88.6116, "closed_now": 25, "skipped_now": 12 }, { "code": "cw2-30d2", "printed_in_issue2": 655.1, "rerun_today": 678.9043, "delta": 23.8043, "closed_now": 31, "skipped_now": 13 }, { "code": "cw2-30d3", "printed_in_issue2": 489.1, "rerun_today": 355.4881, "delta": -133.6119, "closed_now": 23, "skipped_now": 2 }, { "code": "cw2-30ds1", "printed_in_issue2": 383.8, "rerun_today": 330.713, "delta": -53.087, "closed_now": 28, "skipped_now": 2 }, { "code": "cw2-7d1", "printed_in_issue2": 299.1, "rerun_today": 176.4683, "delta": -122.6317, "closed_now": 12, "skipped_now": 0 }, { "code": "cw2-7d2", "printed_in_issue2": 223.7, "rerun_today": 90.0792, "delta": -133.6208, "closed_now": 9, "skipped_now": 0 }, { "code": "cw2-pt1", "printed_in_issue2": 698.3, "rerun_today": 698.3194, "delta": 0.0194, "closed_now": 50, "skipped_now": 0 }, { "code": "cw2-pt2", "printed_in_issue2": 543.7, "rerun_today": 365.9829, "delta": -177.7171, "closed_now": 16, "skipped_now": 0 } ] }, "verdict_rule": "Issue-2 rule, applied verbatim: Faded = net negative on at least one fresh window, Survived = net positive on both. Presets are judged by the same rule.", "verdicts": { "preset_sol_4h4": "Faded", "preset_xrp_bc2": "Survived", "cw2-30d1": "Survived", "cw2-30d2": "Survived", "cw2-30d3": "Survived", "cw2-30ds1": "Survived", "cw2-7d1": "Survived", "cw2-7d2": "Survived", "cw2-pt1": "Survived", "cw2-pt2": "Survived", "cw1-30d1": "Survived", "cw1-30d2": "Survived", "cw1-30d3": "Survived", "cw1-30ds1": "Survived", "cw1-30ds2": "Survived", "cw1-30ds3": "Survived", "cw1-7d1": "Survived", "cw1-7d2": "Faded", "cw1-7d3": "Survived", "cw1-7ds1": "Faded", "cw1-7ds2": "Survived", "cw1-7ds3": "Survived" }, "verdict_summary": { "past_cards_survived": 18, "past_cards_total": 20, "presets_survived": 1, "issue2_read_of_its_12": "2 of 12 Survived" }, "home_nets": { "note": "Net the card's origin issue printed (issue #2 table for cw2-*, issue #1 numbers as carried in issue #2's walk-forward 'Issue #1 (home)' column for cw1-*). Presets are live platform configs with no home issue. USD on the fixed $1,000 deposit.", "values": { "cw2-30d1": 744.7, "cw2-30d2": 655.1, "cw2-30d3": 489.1, "cw2-30ds1": 383.8, "cw2-7d1": 299.1, "cw2-7d2": 223.7, "cw2-pt1": 698.3, "cw2-pt2": 543.7, "cw1-30d1": 868.4, "cw1-30d2": 590.6, "cw1-30d3": 580.5, "cw1-30ds1": 442.8, "cw1-30ds2": 262.9, "cw1-30ds3": 119.0, "cw1-7d1": 439.2, "cw1-7d2": 429.5, "cw1-7d3": 398.6, "cw1-7ds1": 417.8, "cw1-7ds2": 366.3, "cw1-7ds3": 267.0 } } }, "calibrate_effect": { "pairs_total": 2988, "pairs_exported": 400, "sample_is_population": false, "sample_bias_note": "The exported sample is a top-of-board slice: 99.2% of its calibrate-OFF legs are net-positive (median $1162.0). It measures calibration at the tail, not in the middle of the population.", "by_window": { "WK": { "n": 279, "wins": 0, "win_share": 0.0, "mean": -1045.3021, "median": -969.4567, "best": -730.294, "worst": -1728.5495 }, "M30": { "n": 121, "wins": 3, "win_share": 0.0248, "mean": -1071.8346, "median": -1029.5629, "best": 863.5804, "worst": -2166.3422 } }, "overall": { "n": 400, "total_pairs": 2988, "wins": 3, "win_share": 0.0075, "mean": -1053.3282, "median": -976.6146, "best": 863.5804, "worst": -2166.3422, "cal0_median": 1162.0312, "cal0_pos_share": 0.9925, "cal1_median": 193.3299, "cal1_pos_share": 0.845 }, "pairs": [ { "window": "M30", "signature": 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"stake": "$450", "net": "+$728.2", "net_usd": 728.1711, "wr": "69.0%", "dd": "2.1%", "closed": 29, "skipped": 0, "thin": false }, { "coin": "ETH", "i": 9868, "stage": "s5t", "branch": "council", "members": "opus, deepseek, gemini", "fhtf": "4h/1h", "cal": false, "stake": "$450", "net": "+$697.2", "net_usd": 697.2017, "wr": "85.7%", "dd": "4.0%", "closed": 21, "skipped": 0, "thin": false }, { "coin": "SOL", "i": 10231, "stage": "s6t", "branch": "council", "members": "opus, gemini", "fhtf": "4h/4h", "cal": false, "stake": "$450", "net": "+$1,224.0", "net_usd": 1223.9988, "wr": "68.8%", "dd": "6.5%", "closed": 32, "skipped": 0, "thin": false }, { "coin": "BNB", "i": 10330, "stage": "s6t", "branch": "council", "members": "fable, gemini", "fhtf": "1d/1d", "cal": false, "stake": "$450", "net": "+$427.0", "net_usd": 426.9738, "wr": "100.0%", "dd": "0.0%", "closed": 5, "skipped": 0, "thin": true }, { "coin": "XRP", "i": 10524, "stage": "s6t", "branch": "council", "members": "fable, gemini, grok", "fhtf": "4h/4h", "cal": false, "stake": "$450", "net": "+$1,045.1", "net_usd": 1045.0602, "wr": "85.7%", "dd": "7.5%", "closed": 14, "skipped": 0, "thin": false } ], "M30": [ { "coin": "BTC", "i": 9093, "stage": "s2", "branch": "solo", "members": "gemini", "fhtf": "4h/4h,1h", "cal": false, "stake": "$450", "net": "+$545.3", "net_usd": 545.292, "wr": "56.4%", "dd": "30.0%", "closed": 39, "skipped": 0, "thin": false }, { "coin": "ETH", "i": 10724, "stage": "s6t", "branch": "council", "members": "fable, deepseek, gemini", "fhtf": "1d/1d", "cal": false, "stake": "$450", "net": "+$276.2", "net_usd": 276.178, "wr": "88.9%", "dd": "14.1%", "closed": 9, "skipped": 0, "thin": true }, { "coin": "SOL", "i": 9734, "stage": "s2b", "branch": "council", "members": "fable, opus, deepseek, gemini, grok", "fhtf": "4h/1h", "cal": false, "stake": "$450", "net": "+$1,329.1", "net_usd": 1329.0658, "wr": "77.5%", "dd": "9.4%", "closed": 40, "skipped": 0, "thin": false }, { "coin": "BNB", "i": 10951, "stage": "s6t", "branch": "council", "members": "fable, opus, gemini", "fhtf": "1d/1d", "cal": false, "stake": "$450", "net": "+$663.4", "net_usd": 663.4336, "wr": "86.7%", "dd": "5.3%", "closed": 15, "skipped": 0, "thin": false }, { "coin": "XRP", "i": 11079, "stage": "s6t", "branch": "council", "members": "fable, gemini, grok", "fhtf": "4h/4h", "cal": false, "stake": "$450", "net": "+$1,172.7", "net_usd": 1172.7339, "wr": "68.0%", "dd": "6.9%", "closed": 50, "skipped": 0, "thin": false } ] }, "baselines": { "note": "Three independent reference points, none of them search output, re-simulated fresh on this issue's frozen windows in the same-day read-only extras pass (w167, engine 1.1): the engine solo default for each of the 7 models, the default council-of-7, and the pre-search hand-tuned set A/B/C carried since issue #1. Each runs at its original configured stake and under this issue's universe-aware stake table. The grok-4.6 rows carry the 4.5->4.6 lineage remap. The two live presets are listed separately below (they are live platform configs, distinct from the pre-search A/B/C set).", "stake_modes": { "original": "the config's own stored stake: $100 for engine defaults, $300/$300/$400 for hand-tuned A/B/C", "table": "this issue's universe-aware table: $200 on the 5-coin defaults; A and B already at their $300 3-coin cap; C moves $400 -> $450 (2-coin cap)" }, "rows": [ { "name": "solo default claude-fable-5", "tag": "fable-5", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 100.0, "n_coins": 5, "net": 39.8645, "wr": 0.67004, "dd": 1.6, "trades": 494, "closed": 494, "skipped": 0, "query": "members=claude-fable-5&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP" }, { "name": "solo default claude-fable-5", "tag": "fable-5", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": 56.5549, "wr": 0.667763, "dd": 2.6, "trades": 304, "closed": 304, "skipped": 190, "query": "members=claude-fable-5&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default claude-opus-5", "tag": "opus-5", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 100.0, "n_coins": 5, "net": 59.2268, "wr": 0.6825, "dd": 2.0, "trades": 400, "closed": 400, "skipped": 0, "query": "members=claude-opus-5&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP" }, { "name": "solo default claude-opus-5", "tag": "opus-5", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": 48.1045, "wr": 0.666667, "dd": 2.3, "trades": 243, "closed": 243, "skipped": 157, "query": "members=claude-opus-5&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default deepseek-v4-pro", "tag": "deepseek-v4-pro", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 100.0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -21.0275, "wr": 0.608597, "dd": 2.2, "trades": 442, "closed": 442, "skipped": 0, "query": "members=deepseek-v4-pro&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP" }, { "name": "solo default deepseek-v4-pro", "tag": "deepseek-v4-pro", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -45.16, "wr": 0.605714, "dd": 4.5, "trades": 350, "closed": 350, "skipped": 92, "query": "members=deepseek-v4-pro&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default gemini-3.1-pro", "tag": "gemini-3.1-pro", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 100.0, "n_coins": 5, "net": 156.4311, "wr": 0.678497, "dd": 3.7, "trades": 479, "closed": 479, "skipped": 0, "query": "members=gemini-3.1-pro&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP" }, { "name": "solo default gemini-3.1-pro", "tag": "gemini-3.1-pro", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -13.3004, "wr": 0.57767, "dd": 8.8, "trades": 206, "closed": 206, "skipped": 273, "query": "members=gemini-3.1-pro&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default gpt-5.6-sol", "tag": "gpt-5.6-sol", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 100.0, "n_coins": 5, "net": 12.5805, "wr": 0.633166, "dd": 3.2, "trades": 398, "closed": 398, "skipped": 0, "query": "members=gpt-5.6-sol&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP" }, { "name": "solo default gpt-5.6-sol", "tag": "gpt-5.6-sol", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": 4.6511, "wr": 0.614232, "dd": 4.6, "trades": 267, "closed": 267, "skipped": 131, "query": "members=gpt-5.6-sol&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default grok-4.6 [remap 4.5]", "tag": "grok-4.6", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 100.0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -13.1853, "wr": 0.585938, "dd": 3.4, "trades": 384, "closed": 384, "skipped": 0, "query": "members=grok-4.6&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP" }, { "name": "solo default grok-4.6 [remap 4.5]", "tag": "grok-4.6", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -17.1688, "wr": 0.584362, "dd": 5.3, "trades": 243, "closed": 243, "skipped": 141, "query": "members=grok-4.6&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default qwen-3.8-max", "tag": "qwen-3.8-max", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 100.0, "n_coins": 5, "net": 2.6299, "wr": 0.620525, "dd": 1.1, "trades": 419, "closed": 419, "skipped": 0, "query": "members=qwen-3.8-max&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP" }, { "name": "solo default qwen-3.8-max", "tag": "qwen-3.8-max", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": 4.2649, "wr": 0.638796, "dd": 2.3, "trades": 299, "closed": 299, "skipped": 120, "query": "members=qwen-3.8-max&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "council of 7 (default) [grok remap 4.5->4.6]", "tag": "C7", "kind": "council7_default", "letter": null, "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 100.0, "n_coins": 5, "net": 8.98, "wr": 0.672619, "dd": 1.2, "trades": 168, "closed": 168, "skipped": 0, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cgrok-4.6%2Cqwen-3.8-max&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP" }, { "name": "council of 7 (default) [grok remap 4.5->4.6]", "tag": "C7", "kind": "council7_default", "letter": null, "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": 16.3775, "wr": 0.678571, "dd": 2.1, "trades": 140, "closed": 140, "skipped": 28, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cgrok-4.6%2Cqwen-3.8-max&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config A (1d_3_llm_v02)", "tag": "A", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "letter": "A", "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 300, "n_coins": 3, "net": 442.3315, "wr": 0.818182, "dd": 4.2, "trades": 11, "closed": 11, "skipped": 0, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=1d&from=2026-08-17&lev=10&max_diff_side=0&max_sideways=1&members=gemini-3.1-pro%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro&min_conf=50&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=40&stake=300&steps=40%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1d&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-24&tokens=SOL%2CXRP%2CETH&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config A (1d_3_llm_v02)", "tag": "A", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "letter": "A", "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 300, "n_coins": 3, "net": 442.3315, "wr": 0.818182, "dd": 4.2, "trades": 11, "closed": 11, "skipped": 0, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=1d&from=2026-08-17&lev=10&max_diff_side=0&max_sideways=1&members=gemini-3.1-pro%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro&min_conf=50&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=40&steps=40%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1d&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-24&tokens=SOL%2CXRP%2CETH&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0&stake=300" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config B (4h_2_llm_v01)", "tag": "B", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "letter": "B", "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 300, "n_coins": 3, "net": 332.9605, "wr": 0.615385, "dd": 43.4, "trades": 52, "closed": 52, "skipped": 1, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-08-17&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=gpt-5.6-sol%2Cclaude-opus-5&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=keep&sl_shift=30&stake=300&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BNB%2CXRP%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=average&trade_mode=position&variant=v0" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config B (4h_2_llm_v01)", "tag": "B", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "letter": "B", "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 300, "n_coins": 3, "net": 332.9605, "wr": 0.615385, "dd": 43.4, "trades": 52, "closed": 52, "skipped": 1, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-08-17&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=gpt-5.6-sol%2Cclaude-opus-5&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=keep&sl_shift=30&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BNB%2CXRP%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=average&trade_mode=position&variant=v0&stake=300" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config C (4h_4_llm_v02)", "tag": "C", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "letter": "C", "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 400, "n_coins": 2, "net": 464.8534, "wr": 0.777778, "dd": 13.3, "trades": 18, "closed": 18, "skipped": 0, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-08-17&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=claude-fable-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cqwen-3.8-max&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=35&stake=400&steps=50%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-24&tokens=ETH%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config C (4h_4_llm_v02)", "tag": "C", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "letter": "C", "window": "WK", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "net": 522.9601, "wr": 0.777778, "dd": 15.0, "trades": 18, "closed": 18, "skipped": 0, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-08-17&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=claude-fable-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cqwen-3.8-max&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=35&steps=50%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-24&tokens=ETH%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0&stake=450" }, { "name": "solo default claude-fable-5", "tag": "fable-5", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 100.0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -89.3652, "wr": 0.591002, "dd": 13.0, "trades": 1467, "closed": 1467, "skipped": 0, "query": "members=claude-fable-5&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP" }, { "name": "solo default claude-fable-5", "tag": "fable-5", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -84.2447, "wr": 0.589641, "dd": 13.8, "trades": 753, "closed": 753, "skipped": 714, "query": "members=claude-fable-5&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default claude-opus-5", "tag": "opus-5", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 100.0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -76.9075, "wr": 0.581549, "dd": 13.7, "trades": 1214, "closed": 1214, "skipped": 0, "query": "members=claude-opus-5&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP" }, { "name": "solo default claude-opus-5", "tag": "opus-5", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -85.5783, "wr": 0.573237, "dd": 13.0, "trades": 553, "closed": 553, "skipped": 661, "query": "members=claude-opus-5&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default deepseek-v4-pro", "tag": "deepseek-v4-pro", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 100.0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -117.1368, "wr": 0.521624, "dd": 11.7, "trades": 1133, "closed": 1133, "skipped": 0, "query": "members=deepseek-v4-pro&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP" }, { "name": "solo default deepseek-v4-pro", "tag": "deepseek-v4-pro", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -167.5937, "wr": 0.527339, "dd": 16.8, "trades": 823, "closed": 823, "skipped": 310, "query": "members=deepseek-v4-pro&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default gemini-3.1-pro", "tag": "gemini-3.1-pro", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 100.0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -39.0628, "wr": 0.547505, "dd": 19.5, "trades": 1463, "closed": 1463, "skipped": 0, "query": "members=gemini-3.1-pro&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP" }, { "name": "solo default gemini-3.1-pro", "tag": "gemini-3.1-pro", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -76.8219, "wr": 0.529255, "dd": 8.4, "trades": 376, "closed": 376, "skipped": 1087, "query": "members=gemini-3.1-pro&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default gpt-5.6-sol", "tag": "gpt-5.6-sol", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 100.0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -122.957, "wr": 0.569885, "dd": 14.1, "trades": 1481, "closed": 1481, "skipped": 0, "query": "members=gpt-5.6-sol&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP" }, { "name": "solo default gpt-5.6-sol", "tag": "gpt-5.6-sol", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -107.2339, "wr": 0.582166, "dd": 13.6, "trades": 785, "closed": 785, "skipped": 696, "query": "members=gpt-5.6-sol&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default grok-4.6 [remap 4.5]", "tag": "grok-4.6", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 100.0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -178.9787, "wr": 0.53943, "dd": 17.9, "trades": 1509, "closed": 1509, "skipped": 0, "query": "members=grok-4.6&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP" }, { "name": "solo default grok-4.6 [remap 4.5]", "tag": "grok-4.6", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -117.6899, "wr": 0.546531, "dd": 11.8, "trades": 591, "closed": 591, "skipped": 918, "query": "members=grok-4.6&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "solo default qwen-3.8-max", "tag": "qwen-3.8-max", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 100.0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -129.5086, "wr": 0.563536, "dd": 13.8, "trades": 1629, "closed": 1629, "skipped": 0, "query": "members=qwen-3.8-max&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP" }, { "name": "solo default qwen-3.8-max", "tag": "qwen-3.8-max", "kind": "solo_default", "letter": null, "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -130.3487, "wr": 0.558491, "dd": 13.8, "trades": 795, "closed": 795, "skipped": 834, "query": "members=qwen-3.8-max&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "council of 7 (default) [grok remap 4.5->4.6]", "tag": "C7", "kind": "council7_default", "letter": null, "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 100.0, "n_coins": 5, "net": -34.1138, "wr": 0.564516, "dd": 4.3, "trades": 434, "closed": 434, "skipped": 0, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cgrok-4.6%2Cqwen-3.8-max&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP" }, { "name": "council of 7 (default) [grok remap 4.5->4.6]", "tag": "C7", "kind": "council7_default", "letter": null, "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 200, "n_coins": 5, "net": -51.6625, "wr": 0.568571, "dd": 6.7, "trades": 350, "closed": 350, "skipped": 84, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cgrok-4.6%2Cqwen-3.8-max&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&stake=200" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config A (1d_3_llm_v02)", "tag": "A", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "letter": "A", "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 300, "n_coins": 3, "net": 795.2438, "wr": 0.894737, "dd": 7.9, "trades": 19, "closed": 19, "skipped": 0, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=1d&from=2026-07-27&lev=10&max_diff_side=0&max_sideways=1&members=gemini-3.1-pro%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro&min_conf=50&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=40&stake=300&steps=40%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1d&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-24&tokens=SOL%2CXRP%2CETH&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config A (1d_3_llm_v02)", "tag": "A", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "letter": "A", "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 300, "n_coins": 3, "net": 795.2438, "wr": 0.894737, "dd": 7.9, "trades": 19, "closed": 19, "skipped": 0, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=1d&from=2026-07-27&lev=10&max_diff_side=0&max_sideways=1&members=gemini-3.1-pro%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro&min_conf=50&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=40&steps=40%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1d&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-24&tokens=SOL%2CXRP%2CETH&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0&stake=300" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config B (4h_2_llm_v01)", "tag": "B", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "letter": "B", "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 300, "n_coins": 3, "net": 575.755, "wr": 0.691667, "dd": 43.4, "trades": 120, "closed": 120, "skipped": 9, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-07-27&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=gpt-5.6-sol%2Cclaude-opus-5&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=keep&sl_shift=30&stake=300&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BNB%2CXRP%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=average&trade_mode=position&variant=v0" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config B (4h_2_llm_v01)", "tag": "B", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "letter": "B", "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 300, "n_coins": 3, "net": 575.755, "wr": 0.691667, "dd": 43.4, "trades": 120, "closed": 120, "skipped": 9, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-07-27&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=gpt-5.6-sol%2Cclaude-opus-5&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=keep&sl_shift=30&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BNB%2CXRP%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=average&trade_mode=position&variant=v0&stake=300" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config C (4h_4_llm_v02)", "tag": "C", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "letter": "C", "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "original", "stake": 400, "n_coins": 2, "net": 351.7349, "wr": 0.673913, "dd": 23.0, "trades": 46, "closed": 46, "skipped": 0, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-07-27&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=claude-fable-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cqwen-3.8-max&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=35&stake=400&steps=50%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-24&tokens=ETH%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0" }, { "name": "Hand-tuned config C (4h_4_llm_v02)", "tag": "C", "kind": "hand_tuned_preset", "letter": "C", "window": "M30", "stake_mode": "table", "stake": 450, "n_coins": 2, "net": 348.5792, "wr": 0.684211, "dd": 25.2, "trades": 38, "closed": 38, "skipped": 8, "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-07-27&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=claude-fable-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cqwen-3.8-max&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=35&steps=50%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-24&tokens=ETH%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0&stake=450" } ], "headline": "Every default is negative on M30 in both stake modes (solo defaults -$76.8 to -$167.6 at table stake, council-of-7 -$51.7) while all three hand-tuned configs are positive (+$795.2 / +$575.8 / +$348.6): hand-tuned beats defaults on the month, and the fresh-search cards beat both (+$2,137.6). On the week the defaults hover near zero and the stake table can flip a sign: gemini's solo default goes +$156.4 (orig) -> -$13.3 (table, 273 unfunded entries) because capping the stake changes which entries get funded. Hand-tuned A/B/C make +$333.0 to +$523.0 on the week; the fresh cards +$2,175.1. Standing ordering restored: search > hand-tuned > defaults, in-sample as ever.", "defaults_skip_note": "The large skipped_nofunds counts on the table-stake defaults are the stake table doing its job: at $200 a $1,000 deposit funds at most five concurrent positions and the defaults fire hundreds of entries per window, so most of the queue goes unfunded.", "live_presets": { "note": "Two hand-tuned configurations trading live on the platform, re-simulated on the same frozen windows; walk-forward rows list them first and the walk-forward equity chart draws them. preset_xrp_bc2 = '1d_3_llm_BC2_v02' (in service since 2026-08-18), a tuned 2-coin variant of hand-tuned config A's 3-model 1d family; preset_sol_4h4 = '4h_4_llm_v02' (since 2026-08-24), the live retune of hand-tuned config C's family.", "rows": [ { "label": "Live preset preset_xrp_bc2", "slot": "preset_xrp_bc2", "name": "1d_3_llm_BC2_v02", "preset_id": 12, "in_service_since": "2026-08-18", "members": "gemini-3.1-pro, gpt-5.6-sol, deepseek-v4-pro", "tokens": "SOL+XRP", "fh": "1d", "tf": "1d", "ladder": "40:80, 100:20", "min_conf": 60, "tp_shift": 30, "sl_shift": 50, "tp_sl_source": "nearest", "stake": "$450", "concentrated": false, "windows": { "WK": { "base_net": 431.7753, "base_net_s": "+$431.8", "base_wr": "75.0%", "base_dd": "4.6%", "base_closed": 8, "base_skipped": 0, "n_cells": 19, "best_net": 578.4753, "best_net_s": "+$578.5", "best_wr": "75.0%", "best_dd": "2.7%", "best_closed": 8, "best_skipped": 0, "best_fhtf": "1d/1d", "best_tokens": "SOL+XRP", "beats": true, "lift": 146.69999999999993 }, "M30": { "base_net": 543.8353, "base_net_s": "+$543.8", "base_wr": "76.9%", "base_dd": "9.0%", "base_closed": 13, "base_skipped": 0, "n_cells": 19, "best_net": 653.0953, "best_net_s": "+$653.1", "best_wr": "78.6%", "best_dd": "9.0%", "best_closed": 14, "best_skipped": 0, "best_fhtf": "1d/1d", "best_tokens": "SOL+XRP", "beats": true, "lift": 109.25999999999999 } } }, { "label": "Live preset preset_sol_4h4", "slot": "preset_sol_4h4", "name": "4h_4_llm_v02", "preset_id": 9, "in_service_since": "2026-08-24", "members": "fable-5, qwen-3.8-max, deepseek-v4-pro, opus-5", "tokens": "ETH+SOL", "fh": "4h", "tf": "1h", "ladder": "50:80, 100:20", "min_conf": 60, "tp_shift": 10, "sl_shift": 60, "tp_sl_source": "farthest", "stake": "$450", "concentrated": false, "windows": { "WK": { "base_net": 320.8284, "base_net_s": "+$320.8", "base_wr": "68.6%", "base_dd": "12.6%", "base_closed": 35, "base_skipped": 0, "n_cells": 20, "best_net": 641.6237, "best_net_s": "+$641.6", "best_wr": "90.0%", "best_dd": "0.9%", "best_closed": 10, "best_skipped": 0, "best_fhtf": "1d/1d", "best_tokens": "ETH+SOL", "beats": true, "lift": 320.7953 }, "M30": { "base_net": -561.7601, "base_net_s": "-$561.8", "base_wr": "41.5%", "base_dd": "60.0%", "base_closed": 41, "base_skipped": 47, "n_cells": 20, "best_net": 442.2737, "best_net_s": "+$442.3", "best_wr": "75.0%", "best_dd": "19.1%", "best_closed": 12, "best_skipped": 1, "best_fhtf": "1d/1d", "best_tokens": "ETH+SOL", "beats": true, "lift": 1004.0337999999999 } } } ] }, "search_validation": "The fresh search beat the entire baseline field on both windows -- every default, the pre-search A/B/C set and both live presets (week: +$2,175.1 vs +$523.0 best baseline / +$431.8 best preset; month: +$2,137.6 vs +$795.2 / +$543.8). In all four preset-window cells of the neighbourhood scan a one-knob neighbour beat the live configuration, in one case by +$1,004.0." }, "patterns": { "finalist_counts": { "WK": 38, "M30": 41 }, "knob_modes": { "WK": { "Forecast horizon": "4h (37/38)", "Ladder shape (steps)": "50:40,100:60 (38/38)", "Break-even stop (BE)": "on (38/38)", "Min confidence": "60 (36/38)", "SL shift": "75 (38/38)", "TP shift": "-10 (38/38)", "TP/SL source": "farthest (34/38)", "Calibrate ON": "0/38", "Universe": "SOL+XRP (26/38)" }, "M30": { "Forecast horizon": "4h (29/41)", "Ladder shape (steps)": "50:40,100:60 (41/41)", "Break-even stop (BE)": "on (41/41)", "Min confidence": "60 (38/41)", "SL shift": "75 (41/41)", "TP shift": "-10 (41/41)", "TP/SL source": "farthest (36/41)", "Calibrate ON": "15/41", "Universe": "SOL+XRP (26/41)" } }, "member_frequency_in_council_finalists": { "WK": { "n_council_finalists": 28, "counts": { "gemini-3.1-pro": 27, "deepseek-v4-pro": 24, "opus-5": 23, "fable-5": 17, "grok-4.6": 11, "gpt-5.6-sol": 8, "qwen-3.8-max": 2 } }, "M30": { "n_council_finalists": 32, "counts": { "deepseek-v4-pro": 30, "opus-5": 26, "fable-5": 26, "gemini-3.1-pro": 25, "grok-4.6": 17, "gpt-5.6-sol": 8, "qwen-3.8-max": 2 } } }, "observation": "Mechanical core unchanged for the third issue (50:40,100:60 ladder, BE on, conf >=60, SL +75, TP -10, farthest source). The horizon flipped: issue #2's finalists were modal 1d on both windows, this issue's are 4h on both." }, "watch_amendments": [ { "id": 1, "title": "Universe-aware stake from simulation #1", "detail": "A $1,000 deposit funds $450 on a 1-2 coin universe but only $200 on five. Stake is now a function of universe size, recomputed on every universe change, swept as its own axis; above-cap values are marked concentrated and excluded from headline boards.", "evidence": "Issue #2's 30d #1 and #2 (cw2-30d1, cw2-30d2) are concentrated under the new table and show 12 and 13 unfunded entries when re-run on their own origin windows.", "issue2_restated": false }, { "id": 2, "title": "Calendar Monday-aligned windows", "detail": "WK = Mon Aug 17 00:00 -> Sun Aug 23 23:59 UTC; M30 = Mon Jul 27 -> Sun Aug 23 UTC (4 full weeks). Replaces the free 7d / 30d right edge. Each issue's OOS window now begins exactly where the previous issue's search ended.", "issue2_restated": false } ], "limitations": [ "One regime, and it is the whole story: the WK window is a single exceptional week (field accuracy 43.8% -> 54.1%, mean absolute 1d move 0.73% -> 4.28%).", "Multiple testing: 11,136 simulations searched, no formal correction yet.", "Winner's curse: every card, quality-board row and per-ticker best is the maximum of a search and is biased high by selection alone.", "Extras provenance: grid histograms, equity curves and the baseline set come from a same-day read-only extras pass (w167) on the same frozen windows and engine, not from the overnight pack; every equity curve reconciles to its card's net to the cent (drift +0.00 on all 12).", "Calibrate sample is not the population: 400 exported pairs out of 2,988, and 99.2% of their uncalibrated legs are already net-positive.", "Margin skips on leaders: 26 alert rows; affected cards flagged.", "Universe collapse: SOL+XRP holds every slot of both net boards and all 21 stability rows; two council cards per window instead of three.", "Thin cells: several rows run on 4-14 closed trades, flagged.", "Research-to-date counter is pinned from wave 3; issue #2's 23,458 used an earlier definition and is not comparable.", "Research output, not financial advice." ], "research_to_date": { "this_report": { "search_simulations": 11136, "errors": 0, "walk_forward_replays": 52, "verification_sims": 56, "verification_sims_detail": "12 equity replays + 44 baseline runs (11 configs x 2 windows x 2 stake modes), same-day read-only extras pass w167; not counted in search_simulations" }, "platform": { "resolved_forecasts": 33809, "resolved_forecasts_since": "2026-07-11", "models_tracked": 11, "models_tracked_detail": "7 current + 4 archived legacy", "assets": 5, "forecast_horizons": 5, "cadence": "hourly", "published_research_reports": 14 }, "counting_note": "Counter pinned from wave 3 onward; issue #2 printed 23,458 under an earlier, unpinned definition. The two are not comparable and issue #2 is not restated." }, "testing_next": [ "OOS fate of THIS issue's cards, including the first read on all ten per-ticker bests and on the two calibrated champions.", "The 4h-versus-1d horizon flip: property of a moving market, or was the 1d finding a property of a flat one?", "Export the full 2,988-pair calibrate population instead of a top-of-board slice.", "Fold the extras pass into the overnight pipeline itself: equity series, grid histograms and the baseline set belong in the frozen pack, not in a same-day second pass.", "Break the universe collapse: a per-universe board so non-SOL+XRP configs are ranked against their own field." ], "related_research": [ { "title": "Consensus Watch #3", "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/consensus-watch-2026-08-17.pdf" }, { "title": "Weekly Calibration #3", "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/weekly-calibration-2026-08-17.pdf" }, { "title": "Weekly Model Watch #3", "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/model-watch-2026-08-17.pdf" }, { "title": "Config Watch #2", "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-2026-08-12.pdf" } ], "bibtex": "@techreport{mm_configwatch_2026w35,\n title = {Config Watch #3},\n author = {{MarketMania Research}},\n institution = {MarketMania},\n year = {2026},\n month = aug,\n day = {26},\n type = {Weekly Research Report},\n series = {Config Watch},\n number = {3},\n note = {Methodology v1.1 + Config Watch amendments, hash e66c7e8c864a2233},\n url = {https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-2026-08-19.pdf}\n}", "sources": { "search_summary": "summary.json (w157, generated 2026-08-26T12:53:31Z)", "oos_pack": "oos_cw2.json (22 rows, owner presets first)", "preset_recon": "presets_recon.json (analytics.EnsemblePreset)", "search_plan": "w157_PLAN.md (criteria frozen before launch)", "collect_log": "w157b_collect.log (cal_pairs=2988, stable_rows=21, skipped_alerts=26)", "cw2_reference": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-2026-08-12.json", "extras_pack": "w157_extras/{equity_cw3.json, grid_hist.json, baselines_cw3.json} (w167 same-day read-only extras pass)", "extras_log": "w167.log (card percentiles + baseline tables, both windows / both stake modes)" }, "omissions": { "sandbox_short_links": "minted at publish: cw3-wk1/wk2/m301/m302/s1/s2 (see sandbox_links)", "closed_by_extras_pass": "The three draft-time omissions (grid distribution, equity series, default baselines) were closed by the same-day read-only extras pass w167: see grid_hist, equity and baselines keys.", "calibrate_population": "The full 2,988-pair calibrate population is not exported; the pack carries a 400-pair top-of-board sample (see calibrate_effect)." }, "grid_hist": { "note": "Net-PnL distribution of the 8,544 stage-2 grid simulations (4,272 per window, universe-aware stake), binned at $250. card_percentiles = share of the window's grid strictly below each published card/preset/replay. Computed from the pipeline's own results in the same-day read-only extras pass (w167); zero extra simulations.", "WK": { "stage": "s2", "bin_step_usd": 250, "bin_edges": [ -750, -500, -250, 0, 250, 500, 750, 1000, 1250, 1500, 1750, 2000, 2250 ], "counts": [ 1, 53, 430, 2284, 729, 337, 219, 98, 51, 51, 18, 1 ], "n": 4272, "zero_trade": 1026, "median": 123.62, "share_positive": 0.6465, "min": -591.77, "max": 2175.11 }, "M30": { "stage": "s2", "bin_step_usd": 250, "bin_edges": [ -1000, -750, -500, -250, 0, 250, 500, 750, 1000, 1250, 1500, 1750, 2000, 2250 ], "counts": [ 5, 355, 257, 770, 1795, 556, 295, 102, 63, 27, 33, 13, 1 ], "n": 4272, "zero_trade": 764, "median": 0.0, "share_positive": 0.4965, "min": -824.7, "max": 2137.57 }, "card_percentiles": { "cw2-7d1_M30": { "window": "M30", "net": 1835.38, "better_than_pct": 99.9 }, "cw2-7d1_WK": { "window": "WK", "net": 1861.11, "better_than_pct": 99.9 }, "m30_council_1": { "window": "M30", "net": 2137.57, "better_than_pct": 100.0 }, "m30_council_2": { "window": "M30", "net": 412.32, "better_than_pct": 83.9 }, "m30_solo_1": { "window": "M30", "net": 1449.03, "better_than_pct": 98.8 }, "preset_sol_4h4_M30": { "window": "M30", "net": -561.76, "better_than_pct": 5.9 }, "preset_sol_4h4_WK": { "window": "WK", "net": 320.83, "better_than_pct": 71.4 }, "preset_xrp_bc2_M30": { "window": "M30", "net": 543.84, "better_than_pct": 89.0 }, "preset_xrp_bc2_WK": { "window": "WK", "net": 431.78, "better_than_pct": 78.4 }, "wk_council_1": { "window": "WK", "net": 2175.11, "better_than_pct": 100.0 }, "wk_council_2": { "window": "WK", "net": 837.61, "better_than_pct": 92.2 }, "wk_solo_1": { "window": "WK", "net": 1604.25, "better_than_pct": 98.8 } }, "readings": { "WK": "median +$123.6, 64.7% positive, 1,026 zero-trade cells; card #1 is the grid maximum, card #2 above 92.2% of the grid", "M30": "median $0.0, 49.6% positive, 764 zero-trade cells; card #1 is the grid maximum, card #2 above 83.9% of the grid", "walk_forward": "cw2-7d1 replays at the 99.9th percentile of the fresh grid on BOTH windows" } }, "equity": { "note": "Daily settled-equity series (date, cumulative net USD) for the published cards, the issue-2 7d champion replay and both live presets, from the same-day read-only extras pass (w167). Slots fall inside the frozen window; trades settle past its right edge at their horizon (2-3 day luft). Every series' last cumulative value reconciles to the card's reported net to the cent (drift +0.00 on all 12).", "start_deposit_usd": 1000, "leverage": "10x", "series": { "cw2-7d1_M30": [ [ "2026-07-27", 3.96 ], [ "2026-07-28", 60.73 ], [ "2026-07-29", 107.03 ], [ "2026-07-30", -138.22 ], [ "2026-07-31", -177.58 ], [ "2026-08-01", -133.48 ], [ "2026-08-03", -197.12 ], [ "2026-08-06", -263.86 ], [ "2026-08-07", -210.62 ], [ "2026-08-08", -79.63 ], [ "2026-08-09", -66.79 ], [ "2026-08-10", -227.69 ], [ "2026-08-11", -178.91 ], [ "2026-08-12", -145.76 ], [ "2026-08-14", -122.3 ], [ "2026-08-17", -106.55 ], [ "2026-08-18", -26.11 ], [ "2026-08-19", 341.61 ], [ "2026-08-20", 806.76 ], [ "2026-08-21", 1419.76 ], [ "2026-08-22", 1446.31 ], [ "2026-08-23", 1558.81 ], [ "2026-08-24", 1614.34 ], [ "2026-08-25", 1835.38 ] ], "cw2-7d1_WK": [ [ "2026-08-18", 80.44 ], [ "2026-08-19", 367.34 ], [ "2026-08-20", 832.5 ], [ "2026-08-21", 1445.5 ], [ "2026-08-22", 1472.05 ], [ "2026-08-23", 1584.55 ], [ "2026-08-24", 1640.07 ], [ "2026-08-25", 1861.11 ] ], "m30_council_1": [ [ "2026-07-27", 3.96 ], [ "2026-07-28", 69.19 ], [ "2026-07-29", 115.49 ], [ "2026-07-30", -129.76 ], [ "2026-07-31", -169.12 ], [ "2026-08-03", -232.76 ], [ "2026-08-06", -299.5 ], [ "2026-08-07", -246.26 ], [ "2026-08-08", -123.9 ], [ "2026-08-09", -85.46 ], [ "2026-08-10", -246.36 ], [ "2026-08-11", -197.58 ], [ "2026-08-12", -164.43 ], [ "2026-08-13", -134.11 ], [ "2026-08-17", -118.36 ], [ "2026-08-18", -37.92 ], [ "2026-08-19", 250.06 ], [ "2026-08-20", 715.22 ], [ "2026-08-21", 1381.39 ], [ "2026-08-22", 1748.5 ], [ "2026-08-23", 1861.0 ], [ "2026-08-24", 1916.53 ], [ "2026-08-25", 2137.57 ] ], "m30_council_2": [ [ "2026-07-27", 51.37 ], [ "2026-08-01", 127.02 ], [ "2026-08-03", 140.46 ], [ "2026-08-05", 146.29 ], [ "2026-08-06", 154.94 ], [ "2026-08-11", 187.19 ], [ "2026-08-13", 191.78 ], [ "2026-08-17", 196.53 ], [ "2026-08-18", 232.91 ], [ "2026-08-19", 264.76 ], [ "2026-08-20", 329.61 ], [ "2026-08-21", 391.26 ], [ "2026-08-23", 362.19 ], [ "2026-08-24", 412.32 ] ], "m30_solo_1": [ [ "2026-07-28", -119.8 ], [ "2026-07-30", -62.65 ], [ "2026-08-02", 25.83 ], [ "2026-08-03", 114.27 ], [ "2026-08-06", -182.29 ], [ "2026-08-09", -83.25 ], [ "2026-08-10", 90.27 ], [ "2026-08-11", 70.25 ], [ "2026-08-12", 85.31 ], [ "2026-08-13", 159.45 ], [ "2026-08-14", 127.17 ], [ "2026-08-15", 122.2 ], [ "2026-08-16", 113.21 ], [ "2026-08-17", 180.18 ], [ "2026-08-19", 213.13 ], [ "2026-08-20", 386.83 ], [ "2026-08-21", 960.78 ], [ "2026-08-22", 1118.28 ], [ "2026-08-23", 1275.33 ], [ "2026-08-25", 1449.03 ] ], "preset_sol_4h4_M30": [ [ "2026-07-27", 38.73 ], [ "2026-07-28", -9.81 ], [ "2026-07-29", -250.56 ], [ "2026-07-30", -228.06 ], [ "2026-07-31", -215.25 ], [ "2026-08-02", -255.47 ], [ "2026-08-03", -332.01 ], [ "2026-08-04", -372.51 ], [ "2026-08-05", -379.26 ], [ "2026-08-06", -441.2 ], [ "2026-08-07", -447.39 ], [ "2026-08-08", -379.06 ], [ "2026-08-09", -382.66 ], [ "2026-08-10", -423.16 ], [ "2026-08-11", -519.91 ], [ "2026-08-12", -492.01 ], [ "2026-08-13", -534.76 ], [ "2026-08-14", -561.76 ] ], "preset_sol_4h4_WK": [ [ "2026-08-17", 37.0 ], [ "2026-08-18", 38.41 ], [ "2026-08-19", 216.67 ], [ "2026-08-20", 111.82 ], [ "2026-08-21", 369.55 ], [ "2026-08-22", 410.83 ], [ "2026-08-23", 446.83 ], [ "2026-08-24", 320.83 ] ], "preset_xrp_bc2_M30": [ [ "2026-07-28", 41.58 ], [ "2026-08-01", 121.32 ], [ "2026-08-08", 31.32 ], [ "2026-08-11", 67.14 ], [ "2026-08-17", 112.06 ], [ "2026-08-19", 66.26 ], [ "2026-08-20", 167.06 ], [ "2026-08-21", 363.84 ], [ "2026-08-22", 476.34 ], [ "2026-08-24", 543.84 ] ], "preset_xrp_bc2_WK": [ [ "2026-08-19", -45.8 ], [ "2026-08-20", 55.0 ], [ "2026-08-21", 251.78 ], [ "2026-08-22", 364.28 ], [ "2026-08-24", 431.78 ] ], "wk_council_1": [ [ "2026-08-18", 80.44 ], [ "2026-08-19", 287.6 ], [ "2026-08-20", 752.76 ], [ "2026-08-21", 1418.93 ], [ "2026-08-22", 1786.04 ], [ "2026-08-23", 1898.54 ], [ "2026-08-24", 1954.07 ], [ "2026-08-25", 2175.11 ] ], "wk_council_2": [ [ "2026-08-17", -11.46 ], [ "2026-08-18", 29.97 ], [ "2026-08-19", 199.76 ], [ "2026-08-20", 382.51 ], [ "2026-08-21", 634.57 ], [ "2026-08-22", 669.31 ], [ "2026-08-23", 729.61 ], [ "2026-08-24", 761.11 ], [ "2026-08-25", 837.61 ] ], "wk_solo_1": [ [ "2026-08-17", -38.38 ], [ "2026-08-18", -58.76 ], [ "2026-08-19", 424.01 ], [ "2026-08-20", 377.73 ], [ "2026-08-21", 938.74 ], [ "2026-08-22", 1077.09 ], [ "2026-08-23", 1469.18 ], [ "2026-08-24", 1386.45 ], [ "2026-08-25", 1604.25 ] ] }, "cards": { "wk_council_1": "WK card #1 (+$2,175.1)", "wk_council_2": "WK card #2 (+$837.6)", "wk_solo_1": "WK solo #1 (+$1,604.3)", "m30_council_1": "M30 card #1 (+$2,137.6)", "m30_council_2": "M30 card #2 (+$412.3)", "m30_solo_1": "M30 solo #1 (+$1,449.0)", "cw2-7d1_WK": "issue-2 7d champion, fresh week replay (+$1,861.1)", "cw2-7d1_M30": "issue-2 7d champion, month context (+$1,835.4)", "preset_xrp_bc2_WK": "live preset, fresh week (+$431.8)", "preset_xrp_bc2_M30": "live preset, month (+$543.8)", "preset_sol_4h4_WK": "live preset, fresh week (+$320.8)", "preset_sol_4h4_M30": "live preset, month (-$561.8; last settle Aug 14)" } }, "presentation": { "pdf_pages": 11, "rework_note": "PDF/md rework 2 (owner review 26.08): tables brought to the issue-2 canon (TOP columns #/Council/Coins/FH-TF/Net/Net%/maxDD/Trades/WR with * on Trades; one 22-row walk-forward table with Home net + Verdict; issue-2 calibrate table columns; single 12-row quality-board table; single table-stake baselines table; issue-2 per-ticker compact form). PDF prints one equity chart per window and two grid histograms only.", "json_only_panels": [ "oos_walk_forward.drift_baseline (origin re-run drift table; PDF carries a one-line summary: -$177.7..+$88.6, cw2-pt1 to the cent)", "equity.series wk_solo_1 / m30_solo_1 (solo equity panel removed from PDF)", "equity.series cw2-7d1_* / preset_* (walk-forward equity panel removed from PDF)", "quality_boards full 15-row boards (PDF prints top-3 per board)", "stability.rows full 21-row list (PDF prints a two-sentence summary)", "baselines.rows original-stake mode (PDF prints table-stake mode only; conclusions unchanged between modes)", "per_ticker_best full stats incl. WR/maxDD, funnel and by_symbol detail (PDF prints the compact issue-2 form)" ] }, "sandbox_links": { "cw3-wk1": { "sim_index": 2746, "query": "members=claude-opus-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0" }, "cw3-wk2": { "sim_index": 3260, "query": "members=claude-opus-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cgrok-4.6&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0" }, "cw3-m301": { "sim_index": 7018, "query": "members=claude-opus-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0" }, "cw3-m302": { "sim_index": 6403, "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=1d&tf=4h&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=BTC%2CETH&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=3&max_diff_side=1&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&calibrate=1" }, "cw3-s1": { "sim_index": 4728, "query": "members=gemini-3.1-pro&fh=4h&tf=4h&from=2026-08-17&to=2026-08-24&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=0&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0" }, "cw3-s2": { "sim_index": 9023, "query": "members=gemini-3.1-pro&fh=1d&tf=1d%2C4h&from=2026-07-27&to=2026-08-24&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0" } } }