{
 "report": {
  "title": "Config Watch #2",
  "slug": "config-watch-2026-08-12",
  "series_label": "WEEKLY · CONFIG WATCH",
  "issue_number": 2,
  "new_series": false,
  "issue_date": "2026-08-19",
  "language": "English",
  "windows": {
   "7d": {
    "label": "Aug 10-17, 2026",
    "from": "2026-08-10",
    "to": "2026-08-17"
   },
   "30d": {
    "label": "Jul 18-Aug 17, 2026",
    "from": "2026-07-18",
    "to": "2026-08-17"
   }
  },
  "window_note": "Windows are Monday-aligned from this issue on, as promised in issue #1; the 7d window is the weekly reporting window the three sibling reports cover.",
  "methodology_version": "v1.1 + Config Watch amendments",
  "methodology_approval": "approved 12.08",
  "methodology_hash": "e66c7e8c864a2233",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-19T04:45:23Z",
  "engine": "1.1"
 },
 "counters": {
  "stages": {
   "s1": 952,
   "s2": 8480,
   "s2b": 160,
   "s3a": 4,
   "s3b": 105,
   "s5t": 120,
   "s4": 32,
   "s4cw1": 48
  },
  "grid_per_window": {
   "7d": 4240,
   "30d": 4240
  },
  "errors": 0,
  "zero_trade": 1682,
  "pipeline_subtotal": 9901,
  "dedicated_per_ticker": {
   "total": 4960,
   "good": 4960,
   "errors": 0,
   "by_stage": {
    "grid": 4480,
    "refine": 420,
    "cal": 60
   },
   "zero_trade": 169
  },
  "grand_total": 14861,
  "scale_note_vs_issue1": "Issue #1: 15,416 sims across two dedicated multi-day searches (council 12,199 + solo 3,217). Issue #2: one overnight pipeline, 9,901 sims, three new axes (calibrate, per-ticker, OOS replays), denser grid per window (4,240 vs 3,000); the cut fell on refinement waves (269 vs 8,204), the most overfit-prone stage per issue #1's own OOS verdict."
 },
 "key_finding": {
  "label": "OBSERVATION -- first OOS week",
  "text": "The first out-of-sample verdict: 10 of the 12 configs issue #1 published lost their edge on the fresh windows. Both survivors are 30d-tuned -- council 30d#2 (+$421 on the new month) and the grok-4.5 solo 30ds#2 (+$169)."
 },
 "tldr": [
  "OBSERVATION -- The first out-of-sample verdict is in, and it is harsh: 10 of the 12 configs issue #1 published lost their edge on the fresh windows. Both survivors are 30d-tuned: council 30d#2 (+$421.0 on the new month) and solo 30ds#2, grok-4.5 (+$168.9). Every 7d-tuned winner failed to carry.",
  "The issue-1 'robustness hint' family (fable-5+deepseek-v4-pro+opus-5 core) did not hold: its 7d#1 made +$117.1 on the fresh week but -$265.0 on the month, and the 30d#1/#3 pair went -$107.3 / -$167.8 on the fresh week. The hint is dead; the OOS decay series has its first data point.",
  "The fresh search still beats everything in-sample -- +$299.1 (7d) and +$744.7 (30d) vs. hand-tuned pre-search bests of +$79.5 / +$175.9 -- and the defaults still lose: grid medians $0 (7d, 31.4% positive) and -$159 (30d, 13.7% positive); all 7 solo defaults negative on both windows again.",
  "The dedicated per-ticker search debuts (added same-day on owner review: 4,960 sims, an independent 448-cell grid per coin-window): SOL was the month's goldmine -- a fable-5+deepseek-v4-pro+grok-4.5 council made +$698.3 on 50 trades -- XRP's best solo made +$543.7, and BTC was unextractable even at the top of its grid (best: -$2.7). The calibrate axis helped 84% of the main grid's matched pairs (mean +$244.1) yet hurt the per-ticker top-3 twins (7% wins on the month) -- the middle-vs-tail effect, live."
 ],
 "market_state": {
  "panel": "market_state_6p2",
  "week": {
   "start": "2026-08-10",
   "end": "2026-08-17"
  },
  "prev_week": {
   "start": "2026-08-03",
   "end": "2026-08-10"
  },
  "generated_utc": "2026-08-19T06:26:44+00:00",
  "settings_module": "marketmania.settings",
  "current": {
   "per_symbol": {
    "BTC": {
     "net_pct": -3.08,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 4676300109.0
    },
    "ETH": {
     "net_pct": -1.81,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 1799344934.0
    },
    "SOL": {
     "net_pct": -2.16,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 545506557.0
    },
    "BNB": {
     "net_pct": 0.13,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 373245161.0
    },
    "XRP": {
     "net_pct": -3.52,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 357704108.0
    }
   },
   "btc_net_pct": -3.08,
   "realized_vol_ann_pct": 10.03,
   "vol_n_returns": 7,
   "avg_daily_range_pct": 1.63,
   "hivol_days": 0,
   "hivol_days_of": 7,
   "volume_top5_usd": 7752100869.0,
   "volume_symbols_counted": 5,
   "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.52,
   "corr_pairs": 10
  },
  "previous": {
   "per_symbol": {
    "BTC": {
     "net_pct": 2.09,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 4914474500.0
    },
    "ETH": {
     "net_pct": 1.34,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 2141079318.0
    },
    "SOL": {
     "net_pct": 3.57,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 680571970.0
    },
    "BNB": {
     "net_pct": 2.34,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 388062382.0
    },
    "XRP": {
     "net_pct": -5.24,
     "days": 7,
     "quote_vol_usd": 382877404.0
    }
   },
   "btc_net_pct": 2.09,
   "realized_vol_ann_pct": 11.42,
   "vol_n_returns": 7,
   "avg_daily_range_pct": 1.64,
   "hivol_days": 0,
   "hivol_days_of": 7,
   "volume_top5_usd": 8507065574.0,
   "volume_symbols_counted": 5,
   "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.4,
   "corr_pairs": 10
  },
  "delta": {
   "btc_net_pct": -5.17,
   "realized_vol_ann_pct": -1.39,
   "avg_daily_range_pct": -0.01,
   "volume_top5_usd_pct": -8.9,
   "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.12
  },
  "_debug": {
   "models": {
    "Candle": "datalake.Candle",
    "MetricSnapshot": "datalake.MetricSnapshot",
    "EtfFlow": "datalake.EtfFlow"
   },
   "candle_fields": [
    "close",
    "exchange",
    "high",
    "id",
    "ingested_at",
    "low",
    "market_type",
    "open",
    "quote_volume",
    "source",
    "symbol",
    "timeframe",
    "ts_open",
    "volume"
   ],
   "market_types": [
    "commodity",
    "crypto_futures",
    "crypto_spot",
    "forex",
    "stock"
   ],
   "timeframes": [
    "1M",
    "1d",
    "1h",
    "1w",
    "4h"
   ],
   "picked": {
    "market_type": "crypto_spot",
    "timeframe": "1d",
    "ohlc": [
     "open",
     "high",
     "low",
     "close"
    ],
    "qv": "quote_volume",
    "ts": "ts_open"
   },
   "symbol_map": {
    "BTC": "BTCUSDT",
    "ETH": "ETHUSDT",
    "SOL": "SOLUSDT",
    "BNB": "BNBUSDT",
    "XRP": "XRPUSDT"
   },
   "funding_trace": "Traceback (most recent call last):\n  File \"/tmp/w73_market_state.py\", line 202, in <module>\n    out[\"current\"][\"funding_btc\"] = funding_block(W0, W1)\n                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~^^^^^^^^\n  File \"/tmp/w73_market_state.py\", line 190, in funding_block\n    raise RuntimeError(\"funding field mapping failed: \" + json.dumps(dbg))\nRuntimeError: funding field mapping failed: {\"fields\": [\"exchange\", \"id\", \"market_type\", \"metric\", \"raw\", \"symbol\", \"ts\", \"value_num\"], \"ts\": \"ts\", \"val\": null, \"sym\": \"symbol\", \"symbols_seen\": [\"1000BONKUSDT\", \"1000FLOKIUSDT\", \"1000PEPEUSDT\", \"1000SHIBUSDT\", \"1INCHUSDT\", \"AAVEUSDT\", \"ADAUSDT\", \"ALGOUSDT\", \"ANKRUSDT\", \"APEUSDT\", \"APTUSDT\", \"ARBUSDT\", \"ATOMUSDT\", \"AVAXUSDT\", \"AXSUSDT\", \"BATUSDT\", \"BCHUSDT\", \"BLURUSDT\", \"BNBUSDT\", \"BONKUSDT\", \"BTCUSDT\", \"CAKEUSDT\", \"CELOUSDT\", \"CFXUSDT\", \"CHZUSDT\", \"COMPUSDT\", \"CRVUSDT\", \"DASHUSDT\", \"DOGEUSDT\", \"DOTUSDT\"], \"symbol_used\": \"BTCUSDT\"}\n",
   "etf_trace": "Traceback (most recent call last):\n  File \"/tmp/w73_market_state.py\", line 246, in <module>\n    out[\"current\"][\"etf_flow\"] = etf_block(W0, W1)\n                                 ~~~~~~~~~^^^^^^^^\n  File \"/tmp/w73_market_state.py\", line 217, in etf_block\n    raise RuntimeError(\"etf field mapping failed: \" + json.dumps(dbg))\nRuntimeError: etf field mapping failed: {\"fields\": {\"id\": \"BigAutoField\", \"asset\": \"CharField\", \"fund\": \"CharField\", \"flow_date\": \"DateField\", \"flow_musd\": \"DecimalField\", \"source\": \"CharField\", \"raw\": \"JSONField\", \"first_seen\": \"DateTimeField\", \"last_seen\": \"DateTimeField\"}, \"date\": \"flow_date\", \"asset\": \"asset\", \"val\": null}\n"
  },
  "_errors": [
   "funding: RuntimeError('funding field mapping failed: {\"fields\": [\"exchange\", \"id\", \"market_type\", \"metric\", \"raw\", \"symbol\", \"ts\", \"value_num\"], \"ts\": \"ts\", \"val\": null, \"sym\": \"symbol\", \"symbols_seen\": [\"1000BONKUSDT\", \"1000FLOKIUSDT\", \"1000PEPEUSDT\", \"1000SHIBUSDT\", \"1INCHUSDT\", \"AAVEUSDT\", \"ADAUSDT\", \"ALGOUSDT\", \"ANKRUSDT\", \"APEUSDT\", \"APTUSDT\", \"ARBUSDT\", \"ATOMUSDT\", \"AVAXUSDT\", \"AXSUSDT\", \"BATUSDT\", \"BCHUSDT\", \"BLURUSDT\", \"BNBUSDT\", \"BONKUSDT\", \"BTCUSDT\", \"CAKEUSDT\", \"CELOUSDT\", \"CFXUSDT\", \"CHZUSDT\", \"COMPUSDT\", \"CRVUSDT\", \"DASHUSDT\", \"DOGEUSDT\", \"DOTUSDT\"], \"symbol_used\": \"BTCUSDT\"}')",
   "etf: RuntimeError('etf field mapping failed: {\"fields\": {\"id\": \"BigAutoField\", \"asset\": \"CharField\", \"fund\": \"CharField\", \"flow_date\": \"DateField\", \"flow_musd\": \"DecimalField\", \"source\": \"CharField\", \"raw\": \"JSONField\", \"first_seen\": \"DateTimeField\", \"last_seen\": \"DateTimeField\"}, \"date\": \"flow_date\", \"asset\": \"asset\", \"val\": null}')"
  ]
 },
 "branches": {
  "7d": {
   "window": "Aug 10-17, 2026",
   "grid": {
    "n": 4240,
    "median": 0.0,
    "positive_share": 0.3141509433962264,
    "zero_trade_cells": 1279
   },
   "council_cards": [
    {
     "rank": 1,
     "members": [
      "claude-fable-5",
      "claude-opus-5",
      "deepseek-v4-pro",
      "gemini-3.1-pro"
     ],
     "members_short": "fable-5+opus-5+deepseek-v4-pro+gemini-3.1-pro",
     "tokens": [
      "SOL",
      "XRP"
     ],
     "tokens_short": "SOL+XRP",
     "fh_tf": "4h/1h",
     "net_usd": 299.0933,
     "net_str": "+$299.1",
     "net_pct_str": "+29.9%",
     "dd_str": "0.0%",
     "trades": 12,
     "wr_str": "100%",
     "ladder": "50:40, 100:60",
     "be": "on",
     "shifts": "TP -10 / SL +75",
     "conf": ">=60 (each)",
     "source": "farthest",
     "entry": "2/0",
     "positional": "reenter",
     "stake": "$450",
     "extra_notes": [],
     "percentile_str": "100.0%",
     "thin": false,
     "shortlink_code": "cw2-7d1",
     "shortlink": "marketmania.ai/s/cw2-7d1",
     "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-08-10&to=2026-08-17&tokens=SOL%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0"
    },
    {
     "rank": 2,
     "members": [
      "gpt-5.6-sol",
      "deepseek-v4-pro",
      "gemini-3.1-pro",
      "qwen-3.8-max"
     ],
     "members_short": "gpt-5.6-sol+deepseek-v4-pro+gemini-3.1-pro+qwen-3.8-max",
     "tokens": [
      "BNB",
      "XRP"
     ],
     "tokens_short": "BNB+XRP",
     "fh_tf": "1d/1d",
     "net_usd": 223.7292,
     "net_str": "+$223.7",
     "net_pct_str": "+22.4%",
     "dd_str": "3.6%",
     "trades": 9,
     "wr_str": "57%",
     "ladder": "50:40, 100:60",
     "be": "on",
     "shifts": "TP -10 / SL +75",
     "conf": ">=60 (each)",
     "source": "farthest",
     "entry": "3/0",
     "positional": "reenter",
     "stake": "$450",
     "extra_notes": [],
     "percentile_str": "100.0%",
     "thin": true,
     "shortlink_code": "cw2-7d2",
     "shortlink": "marketmania.ai/s/cw2-7d2",
     "query": "members=gpt-5.6-sol%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-08-10&to=2026-08-17&tokens=BNB%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=3&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0"
    }
   ],
   "solo_cards": [],
   "solo_best_unranked": {
    "rank": 0,
    "members": [
     "gpt-5.6-sol"
    ],
    "members_short": "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "tokens": [
     "BNB",
     "XRP"
    ],
    "tokens_short": "BNB+XRP",
    "fh_tf": "1d/1d",
    "net_usd": 244.9598,
    "net_str": "+$245.0",
    "net_pct_str": "+24.5%",
    "dd_str": "0.0%",
    "trades": 11,
    "wr_str": "67%",
    "ladder": "50:40, 100:60",
    "be": "on",
    "shifts": "TP -10 / SL +75",
    "conf": ">=60 (each)",
    "source": "median",
    "entry": "0/0",
    "positional": "reenter",
    "stake": "$450",
    "extra_notes": [],
    "percentile_str": null,
    "thin": false,
    "shortlink_code": null,
    "shortlink": null,
    "query": "members=gpt-5.6-sol&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-08-10&to=2026-08-17&tokens=BNB%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=0&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0"
   }
  },
  "30d": {
   "window": "Jul 18-Aug 17, 2026",
   "grid": {
    "n": 4240,
    "median": -159.0,
    "positive_share": 0.13655660377358492,
    "zero_trade_cells": 604
   },
   "council_cards": [
    {
     "rank": 1,
     "members": [
      "claude-opus-5",
      "gpt-5.6-sol",
      "deepseek-v4-pro",
      "gemini-3.1-pro",
      "qwen-3.8-max"
     ],
     "members_short": "opus-5+gpt-5.6-sol+deepseek-v4-pro+gemini-3.1-pro+qwen-3.8-max",
     "tokens": [
      "BTC",
      "ETH",
      "SOL",
      "BNB",
      "XRP"
     ],
     "tokens_short": "BTC+ETH+SOL+BNB+XRP",
     "fh_tf": "1d/1d",
     "net_usd": 744.6616,
     "net_str": "+$744.7",
     "net_pct_str": "+74.5%",
     "dd_str": "6.7%",
     "trades": 25,
     "wr_str": "73%",
     "ladder": "50:40, 100:60",
     "be": "on",
     "shifts": "TP -10 / SL +75",
     "conf": ">=60 (each)",
     "source": "farthest",
     "entry": "3/1",
     "positional": "reenter",
     "stake": "$450",
     "extra_notes": [],
     "percentile_str": "100.0%",
     "thin": false,
     "shortlink_code": "cw2-30d1",
     "shortlink": "marketmania.ai/s/cw2-30d1",
     "query": "members=claude-opus-5%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-07-18&to=2026-08-17&tokens=BTC%2CETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=3&max_diff_side=1&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0"
    },
    {
     "rank": 2,
     "members": [
      "claude-opus-5",
      "deepseek-v4-pro",
      "gemini-3.1-pro"
     ],
     "members_short": "opus-5+deepseek-v4-pro+gemini-3.1-pro",
     "tokens": [
      "ETH",
      "SOL",
      "BNB",
      "XRP"
     ],
     "tokens_short": "ETH+SOL+BNB+XRP",
     "fh_tf": "1d/1d",
     "net_usd": 655.0543,
     "net_str": "+$655.1",
     "net_pct_str": "+65.5%",
     "dd_str": "17.3%",
     "trades": 31,
     "wr_str": "68%",
     "ladder": "50:40, 100:60",
     "be": "on",
     "shifts": "TP -10 / SL +75",
     "conf": ">=60 (each)",
     "source": "farthest",
     "entry": "2/0",
     "positional": "reenter",
     "stake": "$450",
     "extra_notes": [],
     "percentile_str": "100.0%",
     "thin": false,
     "shortlink_code": "cw2-30d2",
     "shortlink": "marketmania.ai/s/cw2-30d2",
     "query": "members=claude-opus-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-07-18&to=2026-08-17&tokens=ETH%2CSOL%2CBNB%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0"
    },
    {
     "rank": 3,
     "members": [
      "claude-opus-5",
      "deepseek-v4-pro",
      "gemini-3.1-pro"
     ],
     "members_short": "opus-5+deepseek-v4-pro+gemini-3.1-pro",
     "tokens": [
      "BNB",
      "XRP"
     ],
     "tokens_short": "BNB+XRP",
     "fh_tf": "1d/1d",
     "net_usd": 489.1381,
     "net_str": "+$489.1",
     "net_pct_str": "+48.9%",
     "dd_str": "26.1%",
     "trades": 23,
     "wr_str": "67%",
     "ladder": "50:40, 100:60",
     "be": "on",
     "shifts": "TP -10 / SL +75",
     "conf": ">=60 (each)",
     "source": "farthest",
     "entry": "2/0",
     "positional": "reenter",
     "stake": "$450",
     "extra_notes": [],
     "percentile_str": "100.0%",
     "thin": false,
     "shortlink_code": "cw2-30d3",
     "shortlink": "marketmania.ai/s/cw2-30d3",
     "query": "members=claude-opus-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-07-18&to=2026-08-17&tokens=BNB%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0"
    }
   ],
   "solo_cards": [
    {
     "rank": 1,
     "members": [
      "gemini-3.1-pro"
     ],
     "members_short": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "tokens": [
      "BNB",
      "XRP"
     ],
     "tokens_short": "BNB+XRP",
     "fh_tf": "1d/1d",
     "net_usd": 383.813,
     "net_str": "+$383.8",
     "net_pct_str": "+38.4%",
     "dd_str": "26.1%",
     "trades": 28,
     "wr_str": "65%",
     "ladder": "50:40, 100:60",
     "be": "on",
     "shifts": "TP -10 / SL +75",
     "conf": ">=60 (each)",
     "source": "median",
     "entry": "0/0",
     "positional": "reenter",
     "stake": "$450",
     "extra_notes": [],
     "percentile_str": "100.0%",
     "thin": false,
     "shortlink_code": "cw2-30ds1",
     "shortlink": "marketmania.ai/s/cw2-30ds1",
     "query": "members=gemini-3.1-pro&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-07-18&to=2026-08-17&tokens=BNB%2CXRP&conf_mode=each&min_conf=60&max_sideways=0&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=median&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0"
    }
   ],
   "solo_best_unranked": null
  }
 },
 "oos_walk_forward": {
  "note": "Window overlaps: the new 7d window shares 2 of 7 days with the old 7d window and sits inside the old 30d window; the new 30d window shares 26 of its 31 days with the old 30d window. This table is therefore a first decay read, not pure out-of-sample -- purity improves every week as the windows roll forward.",
  "rows": [
   {
    "code": "7d#1",
    "matched": true,
    "family": "fable-5+deepseek-v4-pro+opus-5+gpt-5.6-sol",
    "tokens_short": "SOL+XRP",
    "home_net": 439.2,
    "wk_net": 117.1063,
    "wk_trades": 19,
    "m30_net": -265.034,
    "m30_trades": 92,
    "survived": false
   },
   {
    "code": "7d#2",
    "matched": true,
    "family": "fable-5+qwen-3.8-max+gemini-3.1-pro+opus-5",
    "tokens_short": "XRP+BNB",
    "home_net": 429.5,
    "wk_net": 167.9133,
    "wk_trades": 16,
    "m30_net": -581.9078,
    "m30_trades": 17,
    "survived": false
   },
   {
    "code": "7d#3",
    "matched": true,
    "family": "gpt-5.6-sol+opus-5",
    "tokens_short": "BNB+XRP+SOL",
    "home_net": 398.6,
    "wk_net": 65.7795,
    "wk_trades": 26,
    "m30_net": -428.9101,
    "m30_trades": 70,
    "survived": false
   },
   {
    "code": "30d#1",
    "matched": true,
    "family": "fable-5+deepseek-v4-pro+opus-5+qwen-3.8-max",
    "tokens_short": "ETH+SOL",
    "home_net": 868.4,
    "wk_net": -107.2931,
    "wk_trades": 10,
    "m30_net": 192.1513,
    "m30_trades": 44,
    "survived": false
   },
   {
    "code": "30d#2",
    "matched": true,
    "family": "gemini-3.1-pro+gpt-5.6-sol+deepseek-v4-pro",
    "tokens_short": "SOL+XRP+ETH",
    "home_net": 590.6,
    "wk_net": 59.8424,
    "wk_trades": 4,
    "m30_net": 420.9661,
    "m30_trades": 25,
    "survived": true
   },
   {
    "code": "30d#3",
    "matched": true,
    "family": "fable-5+deepseek-v4-pro+opus-5+qwen-3.8-max",
    "tokens_short": "BTC+ETH+SOL",
    "home_net": 580.5,
    "wk_net": -167.8295,
    "wk_trades": 14,
    "m30_net": 24.3756,
    "m30_trades": 61,
    "survived": false
   },
   {
    "code": "7ds#1",
    "matched": true,
    "family": "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "tokens_short": "XRP+BNB",
    "home_net": 417.8,
    "wk_net": -134.9178,
    "wk_trades": 33,
    "m30_net": -473.0369,
    "m30_trades": 81,
    "survived": false
   },
   {
    "code": "7ds#2",
    "matched": true,
    "family": "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "tokens_short": "XRP+BNB",
    "home_net": 366.3,
    "wk_net": 4.6185,
    "wk_trades": 28,
    "m30_net": -370.8228,
    "m30_trades": 67,
    "survived": false
   },
   {
    "code": "7ds#3",
    "matched": true,
    "family": "qwen-3.8-max",
    "tokens_short": "XRP+BNB",
    "home_net": 267.0,
    "wk_net": -78.5643,
    "wk_trades": 25,
    "m30_net": -605.6909,
    "m30_trades": 19,
    "survived": false
   },
   {
    "code": "30ds#1",
    "matched": true,
    "family": "opus-5",
    "tokens_short": "SOL+XRP",
    "home_net": 442.8,
    "wk_net": -8.4126,
    "wk_trades": 14,
    "m30_net": -292.0719,
    "m30_trades": 44,
    "survived": false
   },
   {
    "code": "30ds#2",
    "matched": true,
    "family": "grok-4.5",
    "tokens_short": "SOL+XRP",
    "home_net": 262.9,
    "wk_net": 15.0138,
    "wk_trades": 12,
    "m30_net": 168.8707,
    "m30_trades": 46,
    "survived": true
   },
   {
    "code": "30ds#3",
    "matched": true,
    "family": "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "tokens_short": "XRP+BNB",
    "home_net": 119.0,
    "wk_net": -77.3561,
    "wk_trades": 24,
    "m30_net": -372.7634,
    "m30_trades": 37,
    "survived": false
   }
  ],
  "survivors": [
   "30d#2",
   "30ds#2"
  ],
  "family_footnote": "30d#2 is the same 3-model 1d family as pre-search hand-tuned config A (the 1d_3_llm_v02 preset -- a tuned variant of this family)."
 },
 "calibrate_effect": {
  "M30": {
   "pairs": 396,
   "calibrate_win_share": 0.8383838383838383,
   "mean_delta_usd": 244.0851659090905,
   "best_delta_usd": 636.0747,
   "worst_delta_usd": -639.8603
  },
  "WK": {
   "pairs": 4,
   "calibrate_win_share": 0.75,
   "mean_delta_usd": 154.58562500000002,
   "best_delta_usd": 323.4267,
   "worst_delta_usd": -327.6228
  }
 },
 "calibrate_note": "Every published champion runs calibrate OFF; calibration lifted 84% of the 396-pair month population (mean +$244.1) but not the extreme tail this issue.",
 "per_ticker_dedicated": {
  "note": "Independent dedicated search per coin (w112, added same-day on owner review): 448 cells per coin-window (112 solo + 336 councils: every pair and triple of the 7 models), one-knob refinement + calibrate twins on each cell's top-3. Standing branch from this issue on.",
  "counts": {
   "total": 4960,
   "good": 4960,
   "errors": 0,
   "by_stage": {
    "grid": 4480,
    "refine": 420,
    "cal": 60
   },
   "zero_trade": 169
  },
  "bests": {
   "7d": [
    {
     "coin": "BTC",
     "council": {
      "members": [
       "claude-opus-5",
       "gpt-5.6-sol",
       "qwen-3.8-max"
      ],
      "label": "opus+gpt+qwen",
      "fh_tf": "4h/1h",
      "net_usd": 137.0174,
      "net_str": "+$137.0",
      "trades": 8,
      "wr_str": "75%",
      "dd_str": "5.5%",
      "thin": true,
      "cal": false,
      "stage": "refine",
      "query": "members=claude-opus-5%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-08-10&to=2026-08-17&tokens=BTC&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&steps=100%3A100&steps_on=0"
     },
     "solo": {
      "members": [
       "claude-fable-5"
      ],
      "label": "fable",
      "fh_tf": "4h/4h",
      "net_usd": 69.1235,
      "net_str": "+$69.1",
      "trades": 15,
      "wr_str": "80%",
      "dd_str": "4.7%",
      "thin": false,
      "cal": false,
      "stage": "grid",
      "query": "members=claude-fable-5&fh=4h&tf=4h&from=2026-08-10&to=2026-08-17&tokens=BTC&min_conf=60&max_sideways=0&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0"
     }
    },
    {
     "coin": "ETH",
     "council": {
      "members": [
       "claude-fable-5",
       "grok-4.5",
       "qwen-3.8-max"
      ],
      "label": "fable+grok+qwen",
      "fh_tf": "4h/4h",
      "net_usd": 18.6127,
      "net_str": "+$18.6",
      "trades": 5,
      "wr_str": "60%",
      "dd_str": "0.3%",
      "thin": true,
      "cal": true,
      "stage": "cal",
      "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cgrok-4.5%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=4h&tf=4h&from=2026-08-10&to=2026-08-17&tokens=ETH&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&calibrate=1"
     },
     "solo": {
      "members": [
       "qwen-3.8-max"
      ],
      "label": "qwen",
      "fh_tf": "1d/1d",
      "net_usd": 23.0659,
      "net_str": "+$23.1",
      "trades": 1,
      "wr_str": "100%",
      "dd_str": "0.0%",
      "thin": true,
      "cal": true,
      "stage": "cal",
      "query": "members=qwen-3.8-max&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-08-10&to=2026-08-17&tokens=ETH&min_conf=50&max_sideways=0&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&calibrate=1"
     }
    },
    {
     "coin": "SOL",
     "council": {
      "members": [
       "claude-fable-5",
       "deepseek-v4-pro",
       "grok-4.5"
      ],
      "label": "fable+deepseek+grok",
      "fh_tf": "4h/1h",
      "net_usd": 260.4178,
      "net_str": "+$260.4",
      "trades": 9,
      "wr_str": "78%",
      "dd_str": "0.0%",
      "thin": true,
      "cal": false,
      "stage": "refine",
      "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgrok-4.5&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-08-10&to=2026-08-17&tokens=SOL&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&steps=100%3A100&steps_on=0"
     },
     "solo": {
      "members": [
       "claude-fable-5"
      ],
      "label": "fable",
      "fh_tf": "4h/1h",
      "net_usd": 230.021,
      "net_str": "+$230.0",
      "trades": 8,
      "wr_str": "100%",
      "dd_str": "0.0%",
      "thin": true,
      "cal": false,
      "stage": "refine",
      "query": "members=claude-fable-5&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-08-10&to=2026-08-17&tokens=SOL&min_conf=60&max_sideways=0&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&steps=100%3A100&steps_on=0"
     }
    },
    {
     "coin": "BNB",
     "council": {
      "members": [
       "deepseek-v4-pro",
       "gemini-3.1-pro",
       "grok-4.5"
      ],
      "label": "deepseek+gemini+grok",
      "fh_tf": "1d/1d",
      "net_usd": 92.0547,
      "net_str": "+$92.1",
      "trades": 2,
      "wr_str": "100%",
      "dd_str": "0.0%",
      "thin": true,
      "cal": false,
      "stage": "refine",
      "query": "members=deepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cgrok-4.5&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-08-10&to=2026-08-17&tokens=BNB&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&steps=100%3A100&steps_on=0"
     },
     "solo": {
      "members": [
       "qwen-3.8-max"
      ],
      "label": "qwen",
      "fh_tf": "1d/1d",
      "net_usd": 43.9473,
      "net_str": "+$43.9",
      "trades": 3,
      "wr_str": "50%",
      "dd_str": "4.5%",
      "thin": true,
      "cal": false,
      "stage": "refine",
      "query": "members=qwen-3.8-max&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-08-10&to=2026-08-17&tokens=BNB&min_conf=60&max_sideways=0&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&steps=100%3A100&steps_on=0"
     }
    },
    {
     "coin": "XRP",
     "council": {
      "members": [
       "deepseek-v4-pro",
       "gpt-5.6-sol"
      ],
      "label": "deepseek+gpt",
      "fh_tf": "1d/1d",
      "net_usd": 268.2033,
      "net_str": "+$268.2",
      "trades": 6,
      "wr_str": "100%",
      "dd_str": "0.0%",
      "thin": true,
      "cal": false,
      "stage": "refine",
      "query": "members=deepseek-v4-pro%2Cgpt-5.6-sol&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-08-10&to=2026-08-17&tokens=XRP&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&tp_shift=10"
     },
     "solo": {
      "members": [
       "grok-4.5"
      ],
      "label": "grok",
      "fh_tf": "1d/1d",
      "net_usd": 287.0822,
      "net_str": "+$287.1",
      "trades": 7,
      "wr_str": "67%",
      "dd_str": "1.4%",
      "thin": true,
      "cal": false,
      "stage": "refine",
      "query": "members=grok-4.5&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-08-10&to=2026-08-17&tokens=XRP&min_conf=50&max_sideways=0&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&steps=100%3A100&steps_on=0"
     }
    }
   ],
   "30d": [
    {
     "coin": "BTC",
     "council": {
      "members": [
       "claude-fable-5",
       "deepseek-v4-pro",
       "grok-4.5"
      ],
      "label": "fable+deepseek+grok",
      "fh_tf": "4h/4h",
      "net_usd": -2.7261,
      "net_str": "-$2.7",
      "trades": 50,
      "wr_str": "62%",
      "dd_str": "11.9%",
      "thin": false,
      "cal": false,
      "stage": "refine",
      "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgrok-4.5&fh=4h&tf=4h&from=2026-07-18&to=2026-08-17&tokens=BTC&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&tp_sl_source=median"
     },
     "solo": {
      "members": [
       "claude-fable-5"
      ],
      "label": "fable",
      "fh_tf": "4h/4h",
      "net_usd": -93.998,
      "net_str": "-$94.0",
      "trades": 58,
      "wr_str": "60%",
      "dd_str": "21.0%",
      "thin": false,
      "cal": false,
      "stage": "grid",
      "query": "members=claude-fable-5&fh=4h&tf=4h&from=2026-07-18&to=2026-08-17&tokens=BTC&min_conf=60&max_sideways=0&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0"
     }
    },
    {
     "coin": "ETH",
     "council": {
      "members": [
       "gpt-5.6-sol",
       "grok-4.5",
       "qwen-3.8-max"
      ],
      "label": "gpt+grok+qwen",
      "fh_tf": "1d/1d",
      "net_usd": 235.9436,
      "net_str": "+$235.9",
      "trades": 7,
      "wr_str": "100%",
      "dd_str": "0.0%",
      "thin": true,
      "cal": true,
      "stage": "cal",
      "query": "members=gpt-5.6-sol%2Cgrok-4.5%2Cqwen-3.8-max&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-07-18&to=2026-08-17&tokens=ETH&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&calibrate=1"
     },
     "solo": {
      "members": [
       "claude-fable-5"
      ],
      "label": "fable",
      "fh_tf": "1d/1d",
      "net_usd": 68.5536,
      "net_str": "+$68.6",
      "trades": 7,
      "wr_str": "71%",
      "dd_str": "14.3%",
      "thin": true,
      "cal": false,
      "stage": "refine",
      "query": "members=claude-fable-5&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-07-18&to=2026-08-17&tokens=ETH&min_conf=60&max_sideways=0&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&sl_shift=50"
     }
    },
    {
     "coin": "SOL",
     "council": {
      "members": [
       "claude-fable-5",
       "deepseek-v4-pro",
       "grok-4.5"
      ],
      "label": "fable+deepseek+grok",
      "fh_tf": "4h/1h",
      "net_usd": 698.3194,
      "net_str": "+$698.3",
      "trades": 50,
      "wr_str": "74%",
      "dd_str": "11.9%",
      "thin": false,
      "cal": false,
      "stage": "grid",
      "query": "members=claude-fable-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cgrok-4.5&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-07-18&to=2026-08-17&tokens=SOL&min_conf=60&max_sideways=2&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0"
     },
     "solo": {
      "members": [
       "grok-4.5"
      ],
      "label": "grok",
      "fh_tf": "4h/1h",
      "net_usd": 337.4418,
      "net_str": "+$337.4",
      "trades": 39,
      "wr_str": "69%",
      "dd_str": "16.0%",
      "thin": false,
      "cal": false,
      "stage": "grid",
      "query": "members=grok-4.5&fh=4h&tf=1h&from=2026-07-18&to=2026-08-17&tokens=SOL&min_conf=60&max_sideways=0&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0"
     }
    },
    {
     "coin": "BNB",
     "council": {
      "members": [
       "deepseek-v4-pro",
       "gemini-3.1-pro",
       "grok-4.5"
      ],
      "label": "deepseek+gemini+grok",
      "fh_tf": "1d/1d",
      "net_usd": 342.7694,
      "net_str": "+$342.8",
      "trades": 6,
      "wr_str": "80%",
      "dd_str": "3.7%",
      "thin": true,
      "cal": false,
      "stage": "refine",
      "query": "members=deepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro%2Cgrok-4.5&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-07-18&to=2026-08-17&tokens=BNB&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&steps=100%3A100&steps_on=0"
     },
     "solo": {
      "members": [
       "gemini-3.1-pro"
      ],
      "label": "gemini",
      "fh_tf": "1d/1d",
      "net_usd": 211.4142,
      "net_str": "+$211.4",
      "trades": 14,
      "wr_str": "62%",
      "dd_str": "8.1%",
      "thin": false,
      "cal": false,
      "stage": "refine",
      "query": "members=gemini-3.1-pro&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-07-18&to=2026-08-17&tokens=BNB&min_conf=50&max_sideways=0&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&steps=100%3A100&steps_on=0"
     }
    },
    {
     "coin": "XRP",
     "council": {
      "members": [
       "deepseek-v4-pro",
       "gemini-3.1-pro"
      ],
      "label": "deepseek+gemini",
      "fh_tf": "1d/1d",
      "net_usd": 357.5829,
      "net_str": "+$357.6",
      "trades": 15,
      "wr_str": "79%",
      "dd_str": "26.1%",
      "thin": false,
      "cal": false,
      "stage": "refine",
      "query": "members=deepseek-v4-pro%2Cgemini-3.1-pro&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-07-18&to=2026-08-17&tokens=XRP&min_conf=60&max_sideways=1&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&tp_sl_source=median"
     },
     "solo": {
      "members": [
       "claude-opus-5"
      ],
      "label": "opus",
      "fh_tf": "1d/1d",
      "net_usd": 543.7329,
      "net_str": "+$543.7",
      "trades": 16,
      "wr_str": "67%",
      "dd_str": "13.8%",
      "thin": false,
      "cal": false,
      "stage": "refine",
      "query": "members=claude-opus-5&fh=1d&tf=1d&from=2026-07-18&to=2026-08-17&tokens=XRP&min_conf=50&max_sideways=0&conf_mode=each&max_diff_side=0&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&same_side=reenter&opposite=reverse&no_signal=hold&time_stop=none&be=1&tp_shift=-10&sl_shift=75&deposit=1000&lev=10&refill=0&stake=450&variant=v0&steps=100%3A100&steps_on=0"
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "calibrate_on_top3": {
   "WK": {
    "pairs": 30,
    "win_share": 0.2,
    "mean_delta_usd": -69.86007333333332
   },
   "M30": {
    "pairs": 30,
    "win_share": 0.06666666666666667,
    "mean_delta_usd": -187.54185000000004
   }
  },
  "star_links": {
   "cw2-pt1": "SOL 30d council +$698.3",
   "cw2-pt2": "XRP 30d solo +$543.7"
  },
  "full_top5_source": "w112 summary.json"
 },
 "per_ticker_probe_s5t": {
  "7d": [
   {
    "coin": "BTC",
    "members_short": "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "kind": "solo",
    "net_usd": 59.1969,
    "net_str": "+$59.2",
    "trades": 2,
    "wr_str": "100%",
    "dd_str": "0.0%",
    "thin": true,
    "cal": false
   },
   {
    "coin": "ETH",
    "members_short": "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "kind": "solo",
    "net_usd": 13.44,
    "net_str": "+$13.4",
    "trades": 2,
    "wr_str": "100%",
    "dd_str": "0.0%",
    "thin": true,
    "cal": false
   },
   {
    "coin": "SOL",
    "members_short": "fable-5+opus-5+deepseek-v4-pro+gemini-3.1-pro",
    "kind": "council",
    "net_usd": 170.0994,
    "net_str": "+$170.1",
    "trades": 7,
    "wr_str": "100%",
    "dd_str": "0.0%",
    "thin": true,
    "cal": false
   },
   {
    "coin": "BNB",
    "members_short": "opus-5+gpt-5.6-sol+deepseek-v4-pro+gemini-3.1-pro+grok-4.5",
    "kind": "council",
    "net_usd": 54.5219,
    "net_str": "+$54.5",
    "trades": 2,
    "wr_str": "100%",
    "dd_str": "0.0%",
    "thin": true,
    "cal": false
   },
   {
    "coin": "XRP",
    "members_short": "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "kind": "solo",
    "net_usd": 242.8315,
    "net_str": "+$242.8",
    "trades": 8,
    "wr_str": "71%",
    "dd_str": "3.2%",
    "thin": true,
    "cal": false
   }
  ],
  "30d": [
   {
    "coin": "BTC",
    "members_short": "qwen-3.8-max",
    "kind": "solo",
    "net_usd": 27.1652,
    "net_str": "+$27.2",
    "trades": 20,
    "wr_str": "65%",
    "dd_str": "13.7%",
    "thin": false,
    "cal": false
   },
   {
    "coin": "ETH",
    "members_short": "opus-5+gpt-5.6-sol+deepseek-v4-pro+gemini-3.1-pro+qwen-3.8-max",
    "kind": "council",
    "net_usd": 191.6233,
    "net_str": "+$191.6",
    "trades": 6,
    "wr_str": "83%",
    "dd_str": "1.1%",
    "thin": true,
    "cal": false
   },
   {
    "coin": "SOL",
    "members_short": "grok-4.5",
    "kind": "solo",
    "net_usd": 337.4418,
    "net_str": "+$337.4",
    "trades": 39,
    "wr_str": "69%",
    "dd_str": "16.0%",
    "thin": false,
    "cal": false
   },
   {
    "coin": "BNB",
    "members_short": "opus-5+gpt-5.6-sol+deepseek-v4-pro+gemini-3.1-pro+qwen-3.8-max",
    "kind": "council",
    "net_usd": 250.7354,
    "net_str": "+$250.7",
    "trades": 10,
    "wr_str": "56%",
    "dd_str": "4.5%",
    "thin": false,
    "cal": false
   },
   {
    "coin": "XRP",
    "members_short": "opus-5+deepseek-v4-pro+gemini-3.1-pro",
    "kind": "council",
    "net_usd": 260.8244,
    "net_str": "+$260.8",
    "trades": 13,
    "wr_str": "67%",
    "dd_str": "31.8%",
    "thin": false,
    "cal": false
   }
  ]
 },
 "baselines": {
  "7d": [
   {
    "kind": "solo_default",
    "label": "Best solo default (deepseek-v4-pro)",
    "net_usd": -34.3307,
    "trades": 286,
    "wr": 0.416084,
    "max_dd_pct": 3.4,
    "profit_factor": 0.3735,
    "net_str": "-$34.3",
    "wr_str": "42%",
    "dd_str": "3.4%",
    "pf": 0.3735
   },
   {
    "kind": "solo_default",
    "label": "Worst solo default (grok-4.5)",
    "net_usd": -69.8746,
    "trades": 389,
    "wr": 0.473008,
    "max_dd_pct": 7.0,
    "profit_factor": 0.4494,
    "net_str": "-$69.9",
    "wr_str": "47%",
    "dd_str": "7.0%",
    "pf": 0.4494
   },
   {
    "kind": "council7_default",
    "label": "Council-of-7 default",
    "net_usd": -18.0475,
    "trades": 108,
    "wr": 0.481481,
    "max_dd_pct": 1.8,
    "profit_factor": 0.4294,
    "net_str": "-$18.0",
    "wr_str": "48%",
    "dd_str": "1.8%",
    "pf": 0.4294
   },
   {
    "kind": "hand_tuned_preset",
    "label": "Hand-tuned config A (pre-search)",
    "net_usd": 33.96,
    "trades": 3,
    "wr": 1.0,
    "max_dd_pct": 0.0,
    "profit_factor": null,
    "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=1d&from=2026-08-10&lev=10&max_diff_side=0&max_sideways=1&members=gemini-3.1-pro%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro&min_conf=50&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=40&stake=300&steps=40%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1d&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-17&tokens=SOL%2CXRP%2CETH&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0",
    "preset_name": "1d_3_llm_v02",
    "net_str": "+$34.0",
    "wr_str": "100%",
    "dd_str": "0.0%",
    "pf": null
   },
   {
    "kind": "hand_tuned_preset",
    "label": "Hand-tuned config B (pre-search)",
    "net_usd": 79.525,
    "trades": 31,
    "wr": 0.774194,
    "max_dd_pct": 7.9,
    "profit_factor": 1.4383,
    "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-08-10&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=gpt-5.6-sol%2Cclaude-opus-5&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=keep&sl_shift=30&stake=300&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-17&tokens=BNB%2CXRP%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=average&trade_mode=position&variant=v0",
    "preset_name": "4h_2_llm_v01",
    "net_str": "+$79.5",
    "wr_str": "77%",
    "dd_str": "7.9%",
    "pf": 1.4383
   },
   {
    "kind": "hand_tuned_preset",
    "label": "Hand-tuned config C (pre-search)",
    "net_usd": -95.3717,
    "trades": 11,
    "wr": 0.5,
    "max_dd_pct": 11.8,
    "profit_factor": 0.5831,
    "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-08-10&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=claude-fable-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cqwen-3.8-max&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=35&stake=400&steps=50%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-17&tokens=ETH%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0",
    "preset_name": "4h_4_llm_v02",
    "net_str": "-$95.4",
    "wr_str": "50%",
    "dd_str": "11.8%",
    "pf": 0.5831
   }
  ],
  "30d": [
   {
    "kind": "solo_default",
    "label": "Best solo default (deepseek-v4-pro)",
    "net_usd": -114.2062,
    "trades": 1014,
    "wr": 0.497041,
    "max_dd_pct": 12.0,
    "profit_factor": 0.5061,
    "net_str": "-$114.2",
    "wr_str": "50%",
    "dd_str": "12.0%",
    "pf": 0.5061
   },
   {
    "kind": "solo_default",
    "label": "Worst solo default (grok-4.5)",
    "net_usd": -179.1223,
    "trades": 1441,
    "wr": 0.550312,
    "max_dd_pct": 17.9,
    "profit_factor": 0.6014,
    "net_str": "-$179.1",
    "wr_str": "55%",
    "dd_str": "17.9%",
    "pf": 0.6014
   },
   {
    "kind": "council7_default",
    "label": "Council-of-7 default",
    "net_usd": -43.193,
    "trades": 437,
    "wr": 0.560641,
    "max_dd_pct": 5.2,
    "profit_factor": 0.661,
    "net_str": "-$43.2",
    "wr_str": "56%",
    "dd_str": "5.2%",
    "pf": 0.661
   },
   {
    "kind": "hand_tuned_preset",
    "label": "Hand-tuned config A (pre-search)",
    "net_usd": 175.8817,
    "trades": 13,
    "wr": 0.818182,
    "max_dd_pct": 10.7,
    "profit_factor": 1.8472,
    "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=1d&from=2026-07-18&lev=10&max_diff_side=0&max_sideways=1&members=gemini-3.1-pro%2Cgpt-5.6-sol%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro&min_conf=50&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=40&stake=300&steps=40%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1d&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-17&tokens=SOL%2CXRP%2CETH&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0",
    "preset_name": "1d_3_llm_v02",
    "net_str": "+$175.9",
    "wr_str": "82%",
    "dd_str": "10.7%",
    "pf": 1.8472
   },
   {
    "kind": "hand_tuned_preset",
    "label": "Hand-tuned config B (pre-search)",
    "net_usd": -114.8064,
    "trades": 89,
    "wr": 0.674157,
    "max_dd_pct": 42.0,
    "profit_factor": 0.8894,
    "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-07-18&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=gpt-5.6-sol%2Cclaude-opus-5&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=keep&sl_shift=30&stake=300&steps=50%3A40%2C100%3A60&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-17&tokens=BNB%2CXRP%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=average&trade_mode=position&variant=v0",
    "preset_name": "4h_2_llm_v01",
    "net_str": "-$114.8",
    "wr_str": "67%",
    "dd_str": "42.0%",
    "pf": 0.8894
   },
   {
    "kind": "hand_tuned_preset",
    "label": "Hand-tuned config C (pre-search)",
    "net_usd": 170.8011,
    "trades": 44,
    "wr": 0.651163,
    "max_dd_pct": 23.0,
    "profit_factor": 1.2063,
    "query": "be=1&conf_mode=each&deposit=1000&fh=4h&from=2026-07-18&lev=10&max_diff_side=1&max_sideways=1&members=claude-fable-5%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cqwen-3.8-max&min_conf=60&no_signal=hold&opposite=reverse&refill=0&same_side=update&sl_shift=35&stake=400&steps=50%3A80%2C100%3A20&steps_on=1&tf=1h&time_stop=none&to=2026-08-17&tokens=ETH%2CSOL&tp_shift=10&tp_sl_source=farthest&trade_mode=position&variant=v0",
    "preset_name": "4h_4_llm_v02",
    "net_str": "+$170.8",
    "wr_str": "65%",
    "dd_str": "23.0%",
    "pf": 1.2063
   }
  ]
 },
 "patterns": {
  "knob_modes": {
   "7d": {
    "fh": {
     "value": "1d",
     "share": "11/20"
    },
    "steps": {
     "value": "50:40,100:60",
     "share": "20/20"
    },
    "be": {
     "value": "1",
     "share": "20/20"
    },
    "min_conf": {
     "value": "60",
     "share": "20/20"
    },
    "sl_shift": {
     "value": "75",
     "share": "20/20"
    },
    "tp_sl_source": {
     "value": "farthest",
     "share": "15/20"
    },
    "_n": 20
   },
   "30d": {
    "fh": {
     "value": "1d",
     "share": "16/20"
    },
    "steps": {
     "value": "50:40,100:60",
     "share": "20/20"
    },
    "be": {
     "value": "1",
     "share": "20/20"
    },
    "min_conf": {
     "value": "60",
     "share": "20/20"
    },
    "sl_shift": {
     "value": "75",
     "share": "20/20"
    },
    "tp_sl_source": {
     "value": "farthest",
     "share": "15/20"
    },
    "_n": 20
   }
  },
  "observation": "Both windows' finalists converged on the same knob core this issue -- the opposite of issue #1's window split; partly a search-design echo (refinement seeds from the same grid winners)."
 },
 "limitations": [
  "Multiple testing: ~14,861 sims searched; some winners expected by chance. Antidotes: full histograms, declared axes, pre-search baselines, IS labeling, the OOS walk-forward table.",
  "Per-ticker calibrate read: -$187.5 month mean rests on 30 top-3 twins (winner's-curse selection); direction, not magnitude.",
  "OOS purity: fresh windows overlap issue-1 windows (2/7 days on 7d; 26/31 on 30d); purity improves weekly.",
  "Small trade counts on several key cells (3-16 trades), flagged and never silently pooled.",
  "Single regime: 6 of 7 report-week days flat.",
  "Thin card set on 7d: two council cards, no qualifying solo -- disclosed rather than padded.",
  "Research output, not financial advice."
 ],
 "research_to_date": {
  "this_report": {
   "search_simulations": 14861,
   "search_simulations_detail": "9,901 pipeline + 4,960 dedicated per-ticker",
   "verification_simulations": 30
  },
  "platform": {
   "as_of_cutoff": "2026-08-17",
   "resolved_forecasts": 23458,
   "resolved_forecasts_since": "2026-07-11",
   "models_tracked": 9,
   "models_tracked_detail": "7 current frontier + 2 archived legacy generations",
   "assets": 5,
   "forecast_horizons": 5,
   "cadence": "hourly",
   "published_research_reports": 9
  },
  "counting_note": "Weekly counting rule (resolved = matured by the Monday cutoff); not comparable with issue #1's horizon-expired counter (59,253).",
  "source": "platform_counters_2026-08-17"
 },
 "testing_next": [
  "Next issue: the OOS fate of THIS issue's cards -- and a second decay point for 30d#2 and 30ds#2.",
  "The per-ticker branch is now standing (owner decision): weekly per-coin winners tracked OOS like the main cards.",
  "Calibrate at the tail: calibrated twins of the TOP cards over several weeks.",
  "Monthly: formal multiple-testing correction once several OOS windows accumulate."
 ],
 "related_research": [
  {
   "title": "Consensus Watch #2",
   "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/consensus-watch-2026-08-10.pdf"
  },
  {
   "title": "Weekly Calibration #2",
   "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/weekly-calibration-2026-08-10.pdf"
  },
  {
   "title": "Weekly Model Watch #2",
   "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/model-watch-2026-08-10.pdf"
  },
  {
   "title": "Config Watch #1",
   "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-2026-08-05.pdf"
  }
 ],
 "bibtex": "@techreport{mm_config_watch_2026w34,\n  title        = {Config Watch #2},\n  author       = {{MarketMania Research}},\n  institution  = {MarketMania},\n  year         = {2026},\n  month        = aug,\n  day          = {19},\n  type         = {Weekly Research Report},\n  series       = {Config Watch},\n  number       = {2},\n  note         = {Methodology v1.1 + Config Watch amendments, hash e66c7e8c864a2233},\n  url          = {https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/config-watch-2026-08-12.pdf}\n}",
 "sources": {
  "search_summary": "w71 summary.json (collect 2026-08-19T04:45:23Z)",
  "per_ticker_summary": "w112 summary.json (collect 2026-08-19, 4,960 sims)",
  "verification_pack": "cw2_report_pack.json (w101b)",
  "equity_series": "cw2_equity_raw.json / cw2_equity_raw2.json (w101c/w101d)",
  "cw1_reference": "config-watch-2026-08-05 report_data.json + solo_best_*.json",
  "platform_counters": "platform_counters_2026-08-17"
 }
}