{
 "slug": "calibration-quarterly-2026-q3",
 "series": "quarterly",
 "series_label": "QUARTERLY · CALIBRATION",
 "issue": 1,
 "title": "Quarterly Calibration #1",
 "language": "en",
 "window_start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00",
 "window_end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00",
 "window_text": "Jul 15-Sep 30, 2026 UTC",
 "cutoff": "2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00",
 "generated_at": "2026-10-07T15:39:15+00:00",
 "methodology": "v1.1 (2026-08-10)",
 "methodology_hash": "e66c7e8c864a2233",
 "source": "quarterly_metrics_2026-q3.json",
 "hit_rule": "direction: exit tp1/tp2 -> hit, sl -> miss, expiry -> sign of gross pnl",
 "bibtex_key": "mm_calibration_quarterly_2026q3",
 "market_state": {
  "panel": "market_state_6p2",
  "month": {
   "start": "2026-07-15",
   "end": "2026-10-01",
   "days": 78
  },
  "prev_month_partial": {
   "start": null,
   "end": null,
   "days": null,
   "partial": false,
   "applicable": false,
   "reason": "no previous quarter: there are no candles before 2026-07-15 (the platform start)"
  },
  "current": {
   "btc_net_pct": 28.56,
   "realized_vol_ann_pct": 38.89,
   "volume_top5_usd_bn": 173.9436,
   "volume_top5_mom_pct": null,
   "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.77
  },
  "previous_partial_month": {
   "btc_net_pct": null,
   "realized_vol_ann_pct": null,
   "volume_top5_usd_bn": null,
   "avg_pairwise_corr": null
  },
  "snapshot_line": "BTC net +28.56% (prior n/a) - ann vol 38.9% (was n/a) - TOP5 volume $173.94B, n/a q/q - pairwise corr 0.77 (was n/a)",
  "exchange": "binance",
  "audit_filter_applied": true,
  "source": "single-exchange (binance) daily candle recompute, market_state_2026-q3.json; block quarter (Jul 15-Sep 30); no prior-quarter block (block_windows.prev_quarter.applicable = false)",
  "audit_note": "Market-state row is computed on a single-exchange (binance) daily candle series, as in the weekly series after the audit that found the raw table mixes two exchanges. The quarter block covers 78 days (Jul 15-Sep 30) of the 92-day calendar quarter, and there is no prior-quarter block, so the TOP5 volume figure is a 78-day sum with no quarter-over-quarter change.",
  "weeks": {
   "M1": {
    "btc_net_pct": -3.31,
    "realized_vol_ann_pct": 27.33,
    "regime": "calm"
   },
   "M2": {
    "btc_net_pct": 24.95,
    "realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.53,
    "regime": "volatile"
   },
   "M3": {
    "btc_net_pct": 6.42,
    "realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.17,
    "regime": "volatile"
   }
  },
  "volatility_rule": "volatile if realized_vol_ann_pct >= median(M1..M3) else calm (the median of three values is the middle one)",
  "median_realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.17,
  "delta_month_vs_prev_partial": {
   "applicable": false,
   "note": "not applicable: no previous quarter: there are no candles before 2026-07-15 (the platform start)"
  },
  "controls": {
   "M3_matches_published_month": {
    "pins_source": "market_state_2026-09.json -> 'month' (the published Monthly #2 block, Sep 1-30)",
    "block": "M3",
    "published": {
     "btc_net_pct": 6.42,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.17,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 80.0142,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.78
    },
    "got": {
     "btc_net_pct": 6.42,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.17,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 80.0142,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.78
    },
    "match": {
     "btc_net_pct": true,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": true,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": true,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": true
    },
    "tolerance": {
     "btc_net_pct": 0.05,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 0.5,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 0.05,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.02
    },
    "all_match": true
   },
   "M2_matches_published_prev_month": {
    "pins_source": "market_state_2026-09.json -> 'prev_month' (Monthly #2, Aug 1-31); the same four values are market_state_2026-08.json -> 'month' (Monthly #1)",
    "block": "M2",
    "published": {
     "btc_net_pct": 24.95,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.53,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 65.9696,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.79
    },
    "got": {
     "btc_net_pct": 24.95,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 41.53,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 65.9696,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.79
    },
    "match": {
     "btc_net_pct": true,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": true,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": true,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": true
    },
    "tolerance": {
     "btc_net_pct": 0.05,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 0.5,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 0.05,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.02
    },
    "all_match": true
   },
   "M1_matches_published_prev_month_partial": {
    "pins_source": "market_state_2026-08.json -> 'prev_month_partial' (Monthly #1, Jul 15-31)",
    "block": "M1",
    "published": {
     "btc_net_pct": -3.31,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 27.33,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 27.9598,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.79
    },
    "got": {
     "btc_net_pct": -3.31,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 27.33,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 27.9598,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.79
    },
    "match": {
     "btc_net_pct": true,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": true,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": true,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": true
    },
    "tolerance": {
     "btc_net_pct": 0.05,
     "realized_vol_ann_pct": 0.5,
     "volume_top5_usd_bn": 0.05,
     "avg_pairwise_corr": 0.02
    },
    "all_match": true
   },
   "note": "M3, M2 and M1 of this run are exactly the blocks the Monthly #2 and Monthly #1 market panels computed (same windows, same audit filter), so all three must reproduce. Non-fatal: a MISMATCH means the exchange filter or the symbol set moved -- send the log, do not publish the row."
  },
  "regime_days": {
   "2026-07-01": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-02": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-03": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-04": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-05": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-06": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-07": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-08": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-09": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-10": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-11": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-12": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-13": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-14": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-15": {
    "move_pct": null,
    "regime": "unknown"
   },
   "2026-07-16": {
    "move_pct": -1.18,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-17": {
    "move_pct": 0.25,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-18": {
    "move_pct": 1.26,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-19": {
    "move_pct": 0.18,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-20": {
    "move_pct": 0.85,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-21": {
    "move_pct": 1.81,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-07-22": {
    "move_pct": -0.67,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-23": {
    "move_pct": -1.89,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-07-24": {
    "move_pct": -1.24,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-25": {
    "move_pct": 0.53,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-26": {
    "move_pct": 1.14,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-27": {
    "move_pct": -2.37,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-07-28": {
    "move_pct": 0.61,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-29": {
    "move_pct": -0.36,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-07-30": {
    "move_pct": 1.52,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-07-31": {
    "move_pct": -2.82,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-01": {
    "move_pct": -0.13,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-02": {
    "move_pct": 0.81,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-03": {
    "move_pct": 0.09,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-04": {
    "move_pct": 0.93,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-05": {
    "move_pct": 0.98,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-06": {
    "move_pct": -0.57,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-07": {
    "move_pct": 0.88,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-08": {
    "move_pct": 0.16,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-09": {
    "move_pct": 0.09,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-10": {
    "move_pct": -1.63,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-11": {
    "move_pct": -0.56,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-12": {
    "move_pct": -0.02,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-13": {
    "move_pct": -0.25,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-14": {
    "move_pct": -0.67,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-15": {
    "move_pct": 0.07,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-16": {
    "move_pct": -0.35,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-17": {
    "move_pct": 2.55,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-18": {
    "move_pct": 0.21,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-19": {
    "move_pct": 7.82,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-20": {
    "move_pct": 5.07,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-21": {
    "move_pct": 7.26,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-22": {
    "move_pct": -1.67,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-23": {
    "move_pct": 0.69,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-24": {
    "move_pct": 1.61,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-25": {
    "move_pct": -0.58,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-26": {
    "move_pct": 0.63,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-27": {
    "move_pct": 1.53,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-28": {
    "move_pct": -2.91,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-08-29": {
    "move_pct": 0.48,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-30": {
    "move_pct": -0.7,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-08-31": {
    "move_pct": 1.19,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-01": {
    "move_pct": -1.5,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-02": {
    "move_pct": -0.06,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-03": {
    "move_pct": 4.98,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-04": {
    "move_pct": -1.97,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-05": {
    "move_pct": 0.24,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-06": {
    "move_pct": 0.58,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-07": {
    "move_pct": -1.52,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-08": {
    "move_pct": -0.72,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-09": {
    "move_pct": -0.25,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-10": {
    "move_pct": -2.14,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-11": {
    "move_pct": 0.85,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-12": {
    "move_pct": 0.0,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-13": {
    "move_pct": -0.57,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-14": {
    "move_pct": 1.79,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-15": {
    "move_pct": -3.35,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-16": {
    "move_pct": 0.86,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-17": {
    "move_pct": 0.21,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-18": {
    "move_pct": 5.82,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-19": {
    "move_pct": 0.46,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-20": {
    "move_pct": 0.13,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-21": {
    "move_pct": 6.39,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-22": {
    "move_pct": -0.4,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-23": {
    "move_pct": -2.04,
    "regime": "trend"
   },
   "2026-09-24": {
    "move_pct": 0.02,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-25": {
    "move_pct": -0.46,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-26": {
    "move_pct": 0.36,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-27": {
    "move_pct": 0.2,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-28": {
    "move_pct": -1.19,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-29": {
    "move_pct": 0.22,
    "regime": "flat"
   },
   "2026-09-30": {
    "move_pct": -0.22,
    "regime": "flat"
   }
  },
  "alive_slice_context": {
   "abs_move_1d_pct": {
    "A": null,
    "B": 1.806
   },
   "btc_realized_vol_ann_pct_hourly": {
    "A": null,
    "B": 35.11
   }
  }
 },
 "tables": {
  "calibration_main": [
   {
    "model": "grok-4.6",
    "model_label": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
    "legacy": false,
    "is_field": false,
    "n": 7244,
    "coverage": 0.4587,
    "hit_rate": 0.45,
    "mean_conf": 60.0,
    "gap_pp": 15.0,
    "brier": 0.2716,
    "wilson_95": {
     "lo": 0.4386,
     "hi": 0.4615
    }
   },
   {
    "model": "claude-opus-5",
    "model_label": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
    "legacy": false,
    "is_field": false,
    "n": 8261,
    "coverage": 0.4626,
    "hit_rate": 0.4585,
    "mean_conf": 60.9,
    "gap_pp": 15.0,
    "brier": 0.272,
    "wilson_95": {
     "lo": 0.4478,
     "hi": 0.4693
    }
   },
   {
    "model": "claude-fable-5",
    "model_label": "claude-fable-5",
    "legacy": false,
    "is_field": false,
    "n": 8447,
    "coverage": 0.4727,
    "hit_rate": 0.4554,
    "mean_conf": 60.7,
    "gap_pp": 15.1,
    "brier": 0.2722,
    "wilson_95": {
     "lo": 0.4448,
     "hi": 0.4661
    }
   },
   {
    "model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "model_label": "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "legacy": false,
    "is_field": false,
    "n": 7799,
    "coverage": 0.4369,
    "hit_rate": 0.453,
    "mean_conf": 60.9,
    "gap_pp": 15.6,
    "brier": 0.2754,
    "wilson_95": {
     "lo": 0.442,
     "hi": 0.4641
    }
   },
   {
    "model": "qwen-3.8-max",
    "model_label": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)",
    "legacy": false,
    "is_field": false,
    "n": 9537,
    "coverage": 0.5367,
    "hit_rate": 0.4535,
    "mean_conf": 61.5,
    "gap_pp": 16.1,
    "brier": 0.2784,
    "wilson_95": {
     "lo": 0.4435,
     "hi": 0.4635
    }
   },
   {
    "model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "model_label": "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "legacy": false,
    "is_field": false,
    "n": 9130,
    "coverage": 0.5143,
    "hit_rate": 0.4716,
    "mean_conf": 66.0,
    "gap_pp": 18.9,
    "brier": 0.2874,
    "wilson_95": {
     "lo": 0.4614,
     "hi": 0.4819
    }
   },
   {
    "model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "model_label": "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "legacy": false,
    "is_field": false,
    "n": 9188,
    "coverage": 0.514,
    "hit_rate": 0.4486,
    "mean_conf": 67.4,
    "gap_pp": 22.5,
    "brier": 0.3014,
    "wilson_95": {
     "lo": 0.4385,
     "hi": 0.4588
    }
   },
   {
    "model": "Field (all models)",
    "legacy": false,
    "is_field": true,
    "n": 59606,
    "coverage": null,
    "hit_rate": 0.456,
    "mean_conf": 62.6,
    "gap_pp": 17.0,
    "brier": 0.2803,
    "wilson_95": {
     "lo": null,
     "hi": null
    }
   }
  ],
  "buckets": [
   {
    "model": "grok-4.6",
    "bucket": "50-60",
    "n": 3561,
    "hit_rate": 0.4577,
    "mean_conf": 57.4,
    "insufficient": false,
    "no_data": false
   },
   {
    "model": "grok-4.6",
    "bucket": "60-70",
    "n": 3650,
    "hit_rate": 0.443,
    "mean_conf": 62.6,
    "insufficient": false,
    "no_data": false
   },
   {
    "model": "grok-4.6",
    "bucket": "70-80",
    "n": 26,
    "hit_rate": 0.4231,
    "mean_conf": 71.2,
    "insufficient": false,
    "no_data": false
   },
   {
    "model": "grok-4.6",
    "bucket": "80-100",
    "n": 0,
    "hit_rate": null,
    "mean_conf": null,
    "insufficient": false,
    "no_data": true
   },
   {
    "model": "claude-opus-5",
    "bucket": "50-60",
    "n": 2139,
    "hit_rate": 0.4708,
    "mean_conf": 57.6,
    "insufficient": false,
    "no_data": false
   },
   {
    "model": "claude-opus-5",
    "bucket": "60-70",
    "n": 6108,
    "hit_rate": 0.4548,
    "mean_conf": 62.0,
    "insufficient": false,
    "no_data": false
   },
   {
    "model": "claude-opus-5",
    "bucket": "70-80",
    "n": 12,
    "hit_rate": 0.1667,
    "mean_conf": 71.2,
    "insufficient": false,
    "no_data": false
   },
   {
    "model": "claude-opus-5",
    "bucket": "80-100",
    "n": 0,
    "hit_rate": null,
    "mean_conf": null,
    "insufficient": false,
    "no_data": true
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     "move_pct": -0.72,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-09": {
     "move_pct": -0.25,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-10": {
     "move_pct": -2.14,
     "regime": "trend"
    },
    "2026-09-11": {
     "move_pct": 0.85,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-12": {
     "move_pct": 0.0,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-13": {
     "move_pct": -0.57,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-14": {
     "move_pct": 1.79,
     "regime": "trend"
    },
    "2026-09-15": {
     "move_pct": -3.35,
     "regime": "trend"
    },
    "2026-09-16": {
     "move_pct": 0.86,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-17": {
     "move_pct": 0.21,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-18": {
     "move_pct": 5.82,
     "regime": "trend"
    },
    "2026-09-19": {
     "move_pct": 0.46,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-20": {
     "move_pct": 0.13,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-21": {
     "move_pct": 6.39,
     "regime": "trend"
    },
    "2026-09-22": {
     "move_pct": -0.4,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-23": {
     "move_pct": -2.04,
     "regime": "trend"
    },
    "2026-09-24": {
     "move_pct": 0.02,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-25": {
     "move_pct": -0.46,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-26": {
     "move_pct": 0.36,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-27": {
     "move_pct": 0.2,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-28": {
     "move_pct": -1.19,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-29": {
     "move_pct": 0.22,
     "regime": "flat"
    },
    "2026-09-30": {
     "move_pct": -0.22,
     "regime": "flat"
    }
   },
   "grok_era": {
    "ids_in_window": [
     "grok-4.5",
     "grok-4.6"
    ],
    "n_grok45": 11128,
    "n_grok46": 7870,
    "n_grok45_rows": 11128,
    "n_grok46_rows": 7870,
    "first_grok46_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00",
    "last_grok45_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
    "first_grok45_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
    "flip_at": "2026-08-24T09:22:00+00:00",
    "flip_inside_window": true,
    "prev_window": {
     "n_grok45_rows": 0,
     "n_grok46_rows": 0
    },
    "merged_model_id": "grok-4.6",
    "merged_label": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
    "lineage_ids": [
     "grok-4.5",
     "grok-4.6"
    ],
    "lineage_source": "benchmarks.config.lineage_ids(head) for each of the 7 heads + MODEL_SUCCESSION[claude-opus-5=('claude-opus-4.8',), grok-4.6=('grok-4.5',), qwen-3.8-max=('qwen-3.7-max',)]",
    "lineage_warnings": [],
    "rows_remapped_a_plus_b": 11128,
    "note": "window QUARTER [2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00, 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00): grok-4.5 rows 11128, grok-4.6 rows 7870; flip 2026-08-24T09:22:00+00:00 is inside this window. All per-model aggregates use the lineage splice grok-4.5 -> grok-4.6 (one row, labelled 'grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)'). See lineage_era for the same facts across all 7 heads.",
    "cells_with_two_grok_rows": 865
   },
   "lineage_era": {
    "window_key": "QUARTER",
    "heads": [
     "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5",
     "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6",
     "qwen-3.8-max"
    ],
    "lineage_map": {
     "claude-opus-4.8": "claude-opus-5",
     "grok-4.5": "grok-4.6",
     "qwen-3.7-max": "qwen-3.8-max"
    },
    "legacy_by_head": {
     "claude-fable-5": [],
     "claude-opus-5": [
      "claude-opus-4.8"
     ],
     "deepseek-v4-pro": [],
     "gemini-3.1-pro": [],
     "gpt-5.6-sol": [],
     "grok-4.6": [
      "grok-4.5"
     ],
     "qwen-3.8-max": [
      "qwen-3.7-max"
     ]
    },
    "lineage_source": "benchmarks.config.lineage_ids(head) for each of the 7 heads + MODEL_SUCCESSION[claude-opus-5=('claude-opus-4.8',), grok-4.6=('grok-4.5',), qwen-3.8-max=('qwen-3.7-max',)]",
    "lineage_resolved_heads": [
     "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5",
     "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6",
     "qwen-3.8-max"
    ],
    "lineage_warnings": [],
    "per_head": {
     "claude-fable-5": {
      "legacy_ids": [],
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
      "by_legacy_id": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
      "n_rows_successor": 19009,
      "spliced_in_window": false,
      "label": "claude-fable-5"
     },
     "claude-opus-5": {
      "legacy_ids": [
       "claude-opus-4.8"
      ],
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "claude-opus-4.8"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "claude-opus-4.8": 6315
      },
      "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
       "claude-opus-4.8": 0
      },
      "by_legacy_id": {
       "claude-opus-4.8": {
        "n_rows_remapped": {
         "QUARTER": 6315,
         "prev_window": 0
        },
        "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
        "last_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
        "first_slot_prev_window": null,
        "last_slot_prev_window": null
       }
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
      "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
      "n_rows_successor": 12695,
      "spliced_in_window": true,
      "label": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)"
     },
     "deepseek-v4-pro": {
      "legacy_ids": [],
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
      "by_legacy_id": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
      "n_rows_successor": 19007,
      "spliced_in_window": false,
      "label": "deepseek-v4-pro"
     },
     "gemini-3.1-pro": {
      "legacy_ids": [],
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
      "by_legacy_id": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
      "n_rows_successor": 19006,
      "spliced_in_window": false,
      "label": "gemini-3.1-pro"
     },
     "gpt-5.6-sol": {
      "legacy_ids": [],
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
      "by_legacy_id": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
      "n_rows_successor": 19010,
      "spliced_in_window": false,
      "label": "gpt-5.6-sol"
     },
     "grok-4.6": {
      "legacy_ids": [
       "grok-4.5"
      ],
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "grok-4.5"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "grok-4.5": 11128
      },
      "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
       "grok-4.5": 0
      },
      "by_legacy_id": {
       "grok-4.5": {
        "n_rows_remapped": {
         "QUARTER": 11128,
         "prev_window": 0
        },
        "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
        "last_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
        "first_slot_prev_window": null,
        "last_slot_prev_window": null
       }
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00",
      "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
      "n_rows_successor": 7870,
      "spliced_in_window": true,
      "label": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)"
     },
     "qwen-3.8-max": {
      "legacy_ids": [
       "qwen-3.7-max"
      ],
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "qwen-3.7-max"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "qwen-3.7-max": 7479
      },
      "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
       "qwen-3.7-max": 0
      },
      "by_legacy_id": {
       "qwen-3.7-max": {
        "n_rows_remapped": {
         "QUARTER": 7479,
         "prev_window": 0
        },
        "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
        "last_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
        "first_slot_prev_window": null,
        "last_slot_prev_window": null
       }
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-05T10:01:00+00:00",
      "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
      "n_rows_successor": 11520,
      "spliced_in_window": true,
      "label": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
     }
    },
    "labels": {
     "claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
     "deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
     "qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
    },
    "rows_remapped_window": 24922,
    "rows_remapped_prev_window": 0,
    "note": "Only the 7 current models are tracked; earlier versions are folded into their successors' lineage. Every per-model aggregate in this pack sees the merged head id; the raw id survives in model_raw. Labels and era spans are generated from the pulled rows, not hardcoded.",
    "cells_with_two_rows_per_head": {
     "claude-fable-5": 1257,
     "claude-opus-5": 1258,
     "deepseek-v4-pro": 1257,
     "gemini-3.1-pro": 1230,
     "gpt-5.6-sol": 1258,
     "grok-4.6": 865,
     "qwen-3.8-max": 1253
    }
   },
   "series_density": {
    "1d": {
     "days_with_slots": 77,
     "expected_days": 92,
     "full_daily_coverage": false,
     "in_fh_gate": true,
     "n_slots": 77,
     "n_rows": 6930,
     "days": [
      "2026-07-16",
      "2026-07-17",
      "2026-07-18",
      "2026-07-19",
      "2026-07-20",
      "2026-07-21",
      "2026-07-22",
      "2026-07-23",
      "2026-07-24",
      "2026-07-25",
      "2026-07-26",
      "2026-07-27",
      "2026-07-28",
      "2026-07-29",
      "2026-07-30",
      "2026-07-31",
      "2026-08-01",
      "2026-08-02",
      "2026-08-03",
      "2026-08-04",
      "2026-08-05",
      "2026-08-06",
      "2026-08-07",
      "2026-08-08",
      "2026-08-09",
      "2026-08-10",
      "2026-08-11",
      "2026-08-12",
      "2026-08-13",
      "2026-08-14",
      "2026-08-15",
      "2026-08-16",
      "2026-08-17",
      "2026-08-18",
      "2026-08-19",
      "2026-08-20",
      "2026-08-21",
      "2026-08-22",
      "2026-08-23",
      "2026-08-24",
      "2026-08-25",
      "2026-08-26",
      "2026-08-27",
      "2026-08-28",
      "2026-08-29",
      "2026-08-30",
      "2026-08-31",
      "2026-09-01",
      "2026-09-02",
      "2026-09-03",
      "2026-09-04",
      "2026-09-05",
      "2026-09-06",
      "2026-09-07",
      "2026-09-08",
      "2026-09-09",
      "2026-09-10",
      "2026-09-11",
      "2026-09-12",
      "2026-09-13",
      "2026-09-14",
      "2026-09-15",
      "2026-09-16",
      "2026-09-17",
      "2026-09-18",
      "2026-09-19",
      "2026-09-20",
      "2026-09-21",
      "2026-09-22",
      "2026-09-23",
      "2026-09-24",
      "2026-09-25",
      "2026-09-26",
      "2026-09-27",
      "2026-09-28",
      "2026-09-29",
      "2026-09-30"
     ],
     "missing_days": [
      "2026-07-01",
      "2026-07-02",
      "2026-07-03",
      "2026-07-04",
      "2026-07-05",
      "2026-07-06",
      "2026-07-07",
      "2026-07-08",
      "2026-07-09",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-11",
      "2026-07-12",
      "2026-07-13",
      "2026-07-14",
      "2026-07-15"
     ]
    },
    "1h": {
     "days_with_slots": 78,
     "expected_days": 92,
     "full_daily_coverage": false,
     "in_fh_gate": true,
     "n_slots": 1851,
     "n_rows": 78685,
     "days": [
      "2026-07-15",
      "2026-07-16",
      "2026-07-17",
      "2026-07-18",
      "2026-07-19",
      "2026-07-20",
      "2026-07-21",
      "2026-07-22",
      "2026-07-23",
      "2026-07-24",
      "2026-07-25",
      "2026-07-26",
      "2026-07-27",
      "2026-07-28",
      "2026-07-29",
      "2026-07-30",
      "2026-07-31",
      "2026-08-01",
      "2026-08-02",
      "2026-08-03",
      "2026-08-04",
      "2026-08-05",
      "2026-08-06",
      "2026-08-07",
      "2026-08-08",
      "2026-08-09",
      "2026-08-10",
      "2026-08-11",
      "2026-08-12",
      "2026-08-13",
      "2026-08-14",
      "2026-08-15",
      "2026-08-16",
      "2026-08-17",
      "2026-08-18",
      "2026-08-19",
      "2026-08-20",
      "2026-08-21",
      "2026-08-22",
      "2026-08-23",
      "2026-08-24",
      "2026-08-25",
      "2026-08-26",
      "2026-08-27",
      "2026-08-28",
      "2026-08-29",
      "2026-08-30",
      "2026-08-31",
      "2026-09-01",
      "2026-09-02",
      "2026-09-03",
      "2026-09-04",
      "2026-09-05",
      "2026-09-06",
      "2026-09-07",
      "2026-09-08",
      "2026-09-09",
      "2026-09-10",
      "2026-09-11",
      "2026-09-12",
      "2026-09-13",
      "2026-09-14",
      "2026-09-15",
      "2026-09-16",
      "2026-09-17",
      "2026-09-18",
      "2026-09-19",
      "2026-09-20",
      "2026-09-21",
      "2026-09-22",
      "2026-09-23",
      "2026-09-24",
      "2026-09-25",
      "2026-09-26",
      "2026-09-27",
      "2026-09-28",
      "2026-09-29",
      "2026-09-30"
     ],
     "missing_days": [
      "2026-07-01",
      "2026-07-02",
      "2026-07-03",
      "2026-07-04",
      "2026-07-05",
      "2026-07-06",
      "2026-07-07",
      "2026-07-08",
      "2026-07-09",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-11",
      "2026-07-12",
      "2026-07-13",
      "2026-07-14"
     ]
    },
    "1m": {
     "days_with_slots": 41,
     "expected_days": 92,
     "full_daily_coverage": false,
     "in_fh_gate": false,
     "n_slots": 41,
     "n_rows": 2940,
     "days": [
      "2026-07-20",
      "2026-08-01",
      "2026-08-23",
      "2026-08-24",
      "2026-08-25",
      "2026-08-26",
      "2026-08-27",
      "2026-08-28",
      "2026-08-29",
      "2026-08-30",
      "2026-08-31",
      "2026-09-01",
      "2026-09-02",
      "2026-09-03",
      "2026-09-04",
      "2026-09-05",
      "2026-09-06",
      "2026-09-07",
      "2026-09-08",
      "2026-09-09",
      "2026-09-10",
      "2026-09-11",
      "2026-09-12",
      "2026-09-13",
      "2026-09-14",
      "2026-09-15",
      "2026-09-16",
      "2026-09-17",
      "2026-09-18",
      "2026-09-19",
      "2026-09-20",
      "2026-09-21",
      "2026-09-22",
      "2026-09-23",
      "2026-09-24",
      "2026-09-25",
      "2026-09-26",
      "2026-09-27",
      "2026-09-28",
      "2026-09-29",
      "2026-09-30"
     ],
     "missing_days": [
      "2026-07-01",
      "2026-07-02",
      "2026-07-03",
      "2026-07-04",
      "2026-07-05",
      "2026-07-06",
      "2026-07-07",
      "2026-07-08",
      "2026-07-09",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-11",
      "2026-07-12",
      "2026-07-13",
      "2026-07-14",
      "2026-07-15",
      "2026-07-16",
      "2026-07-17",
      "2026-07-18",
      "2026-07-19",
      "2026-07-21",
      "2026-07-22",
      "2026-07-23",
      "2026-07-24",
      "2026-07-25",
      "2026-07-26",
      "2026-07-27",
      "2026-07-28",
      "2026-07-29",
      "2026-07-30",
      "2026-07-31",
      "2026-08-02",
      "2026-08-03",
      "2026-08-04",
      "2026-08-05",
      "2026-08-06",
      "2026-08-07",
      "2026-08-08",
      "2026-08-09",
      "2026-08-10",
      "2026-08-11",
      "2026-08-12",
      "2026-08-13",
      "2026-08-14",
      "2026-08-15",
      "2026-08-16",
      "2026-08-17",
      "2026-08-18",
      "2026-08-19",
      "2026-08-20",
      "2026-08-21",
      "2026-08-22"
     ]
    },
    "1w": {
     "days_with_slots": 55,
     "expected_days": 92,
     "full_daily_coverage": false,
     "in_fh_gate": false,
     "n_slots": 55,
     "n_rows": 4830,
     "days": [
      "2026-07-16",
      "2026-07-17",
      "2026-07-18",
      "2026-07-19",
      "2026-07-20",
      "2026-07-21",
      "2026-07-22",
      "2026-07-23",
      "2026-07-24",
      "2026-07-25",
      "2026-07-26",
      "2026-07-27",
      "2026-08-03",
      "2026-08-10",
      "2026-08-17",
      "2026-08-22",
      "2026-08-23",
      "2026-08-24",
      "2026-08-25",
      "2026-08-26",
      "2026-08-27",
      "2026-08-28",
      "2026-08-29",
      "2026-08-30",
      "2026-08-31",
      "2026-09-01",
      "2026-09-02",
      "2026-09-03",
      "2026-09-04",
      "2026-09-05",
      "2026-09-06",
      "2026-09-07",
      "2026-09-08",
      "2026-09-09",
      "2026-09-10",
      "2026-09-11",
      "2026-09-12",
      "2026-09-13",
      "2026-09-14",
      "2026-09-15",
      "2026-09-16",
      "2026-09-17",
      "2026-09-18",
      "2026-09-19",
      "2026-09-20",
      "2026-09-21",
      "2026-09-22",
      "2026-09-23",
      "2026-09-24",
      "2026-09-25",
      "2026-09-26",
      "2026-09-27",
      "2026-09-28",
      "2026-09-29",
      "2026-09-30"
     ],
     "missing_days": [
      "2026-07-01",
      "2026-07-02",
      "2026-07-03",
      "2026-07-04",
      "2026-07-05",
      "2026-07-06",
      "2026-07-07",
      "2026-07-08",
      "2026-07-09",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-11",
      "2026-07-12",
      "2026-07-13",
      "2026-07-14",
      "2026-07-15",
      "2026-07-28",
      "2026-07-29",
      "2026-07-30",
      "2026-07-31",
      "2026-08-01",
      "2026-08-02",
      "2026-08-04",
      "2026-08-05",
      "2026-08-06",
      "2026-08-07",
      "2026-08-08",
      "2026-08-09",
      "2026-08-11",
      "2026-08-12",
      "2026-08-13",
      "2026-08-14",
      "2026-08-15",
      "2026-08-16",
      "2026-08-18",
      "2026-08-19",
      "2026-08-20",
      "2026-08-21"
     ]
    },
    "4h": {
     "days_with_slots": 78,
     "expected_days": 92,
     "full_daily_coverage": false,
     "in_fh_gate": true,
     "n_slots": 462,
     "n_rows": 39654,
     "days": [
      "2026-07-15",
      "2026-07-16",
      "2026-07-17",
      "2026-07-18",
      "2026-07-19",
      "2026-07-20",
      "2026-07-21",
      "2026-07-22",
      "2026-07-23",
      "2026-07-24",
      "2026-07-25",
      "2026-07-26",
      "2026-07-27",
      "2026-07-28",
      "2026-07-29",
      "2026-07-30",
      "2026-07-31",
      "2026-08-01",
      "2026-08-02",
      "2026-08-03",
      "2026-08-04",
      "2026-08-05",
      "2026-08-06",
      "2026-08-07",
      "2026-08-08",
      "2026-08-09",
      "2026-08-10",
      "2026-08-11",
      "2026-08-12",
      "2026-08-13",
      "2026-08-14",
      "2026-08-15",
      "2026-08-16",
      "2026-08-17",
      "2026-08-18",
      "2026-08-19",
      "2026-08-20",
      "2026-08-21",
      "2026-08-22",
      "2026-08-23",
      "2026-08-24",
      "2026-08-25",
      "2026-08-26",
      "2026-08-27",
      "2026-08-28",
      "2026-08-29",
      "2026-08-30",
      "2026-08-31",
      "2026-09-01",
      "2026-09-02",
      "2026-09-03",
      "2026-09-04",
      "2026-09-05",
      "2026-09-06",
      "2026-09-07",
      "2026-09-08",
      "2026-09-09",
      "2026-09-10",
      "2026-09-11",
      "2026-09-12",
      "2026-09-13",
      "2026-09-14",
      "2026-09-15",
      "2026-09-16",
      "2026-09-17",
      "2026-09-18",
      "2026-09-19",
      "2026-09-20",
      "2026-09-21",
      "2026-09-22",
      "2026-09-23",
      "2026-09-24",
      "2026-09-25",
      "2026-09-26",
      "2026-09-27",
      "2026-09-28",
      "2026-09-29",
      "2026-09-30"
     ],
     "missing_days": [
      "2026-07-01",
      "2026-07-02",
      "2026-07-03",
      "2026-07-04",
      "2026-07-05",
      "2026-07-06",
      "2026-07-07",
      "2026-07-08",
      "2026-07-09",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-11",
      "2026-07-12",
      "2026-07-13",
      "2026-07-14"
     ]
    }
   },
   "model_roster": {
    "current": [
     "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5",
     "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6",
     "qwen-3.8-max"
    ],
    "current_count": 7,
    "current_raw_ids_in_window": [
     "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-4.8",
     "claude-opus-5",
     "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.5",
     "grok-4.6",
     "qwen-3.7-max",
     "qwen-3.8-max"
    ],
    "archived_legacy": [
     "grok-4.5",
     "qwen-3.7-max",
     "claude-opus-4.8"
    ],
    "archived_legacy_count": 3,
    "archived_legacy_detail": [
     {
      "model": "grok-4.5",
      "n_rows_since": 11128,
      "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00"
     },
     {
      "model": "qwen-3.7-max",
      "n_rows_since": 7479,
      "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00"
     },
     {
      "model": "claude-opus-4.8",
      "n_rows_since": 6315,
      "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00"
     }
    ],
    "archived_excluding_lineage_merged": [],
    "tracked_total": 10,
    "canon_expected": {
     "current": 7,
     "archived_legacy": 4,
     "tracked_total": 11
    },
    "matches_canon_11_7_4": false,
    "roster_rule_w213": "7 models tracked (current line-up; earlier versions folded into their successors' lineage)",
    "canon_expected_w213": {
     "current": 7
    },
    "heads_w213": [
     "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5",
     "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6",
     "qwen-3.8-max"
    ],
    "matches_canon_7_current": true,
    "heads_missing_in_window": [],
    "heads_unexpected_in_window": [],
    "roster_since": "2026-07-11T00:00:00+00:00",
    "note": "current = merged-lineage model ids emitting inside the window (legacy ids are spliced into their successor); archived legacy = raw ids seen since 2026-07-11 that no longer emit in the window. Models retired before 2026-07-11 are not visible to this query. The canon checks are DESCRIPTIVE: if the data says otherwise, the data wins and is printed."
   }
  },
  "gap_drift": {
   "rows": [
    {
     "model": "claude-opus-5",
     "gap_pp_by_week": [
      15.6,
      13.2,
      15.9
     ],
     "month_gap_pp": 15.0,
     "gap_slope_pp_per_week": 0.15,
     "gap_range_pp": 2.7,
     "weeks_narrowing": 1,
     "direction": "flat",
     "direction_reason": "abs(slope) < 0.5 pp/month"
    },
    {
     "model": "grok-4.6",
     "gap_pp_by_week": [
      14.2,
      15.1,
      15.8
     ],
     "month_gap_pp": 15.0,
     "gap_slope_pp_per_week": 0.8,
     "gap_range_pp": 1.6,
     "weeks_narrowing": 0,
     "direction": "widening",
     "direction_reason": "OLS slope over months 1..3"
    },
    {
     "model": "claude-fable-5",
     "gap_pp_by_week": [
      15.9,
      13.9,
      15.6
     ],
     "month_gap_pp": 15.1,
     "gap_slope_pp_per_week": -0.15,
     "gap_range_pp": 2.0,
     "weeks_narrowing": 1,
     "direction": "flat",
     "direction_reason": "abs(slope) < 0.5 pp/month"
    },
    {
     "model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gap_pp_by_week": [
      16.6,
      15.4,
      15.3
     ],
     "month_gap_pp": 15.6,
     "gap_slope_pp_per_week": -0.65,
     "gap_range_pp": 1.3,
     "weeks_narrowing": 2,
     "direction": "narrowing",
     "direction_reason": "OLS slope over months 1..3"
    },
    {
     "model": "qwen-3.8-max",
     "gap_pp_by_week": [
      18.7,
      14.7,
      14.7
     ],
     "month_gap_pp": 16.1,
     "gap_slope_pp_per_week": -2.0,
     "gap_range_pp": 4.0,
     "weeks_narrowing": 1,
     "direction": "narrowing",
     "direction_reason": "OLS slope over months 1..3"
    },
    {
     "model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gap_pp_by_week": [
      20.0,
      18.8,
      18.0
     ],
     "month_gap_pp": 18.9,
     "gap_slope_pp_per_week": -1.0,
     "gap_range_pp": 2.0,
     "weeks_narrowing": 2,
     "direction": "narrowing",
     "direction_reason": "OLS slope over months 1..3"
    },
    {
     "model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "gap_pp_by_week": [
      22.1,
      21.8,
      23.5
     ],
     "month_gap_pp": 22.5,
     "gap_slope_pp_per_week": 0.7,
     "gap_range_pp": 1.7,
     "weeks_narrowing": 1,
     "direction": "widening",
     "direction_reason": "OLS slope over months 1..3"
    },
    {
     "model": "Field (all models)",
     "is_field": true,
     "gap_pp_by_week": [
      17.8,
      16.3,
      17.0
     ],
     "month_gap_pp": 17.0,
     "gap_slope_pp_per_week": -0.4,
     "gap_range_pp": 1.5,
     "weeks_narrowing": 1,
     "direction": "flat"
    }
   ],
   "slope_rule": "flat if |gap_slope_pp_per_month| < 0.5, else widening (slope > 0) / narrowing (slope < 0)",
   "flat_rule_pp_per_week": 0.5,
   "source": "monthly packs (M1..M3) calibration.per_model / calibration.field (frozen cutoffs)",
   "field_by_week": {
    "M1": {
     "n": 19541,
     "mean_conf": 62.8,
     "hit_rate": 0.4498,
     "gap_pp": 17.8,
     "brier": 0.2831
    },
    "M2": {
     "n": 19383,
     "mean_conf": 62.6,
     "hit_rate": 0.4633,
     "gap_pp": 16.3,
     "brier": 0.2784
    },
    "M3": {
     "n": 20682,
     "mean_conf": 62.6,
     "hit_rate": 0.455,
     "gap_pp": 17.0,
     "brier": 0.2796
    }
   },
   "weeks": {
    "M1": "Jul 15-31",
    "M2": "Aug 1-31",
    "M3": "Sep 1-30"
   },
   "unit_note": "quarterly issue: the *_by_week / *_per_week / weeks_* keys carry the months M1..M3 (pp per month), month_gap_pp carries the pooled quarter"
  },
  "bucket_drift": {
   "rows": [
    {
     "bucket": "50-60",
     "week": "M1",
     "n": 4374,
     "mean_conf": 56.8,
     "hit_rate": 0.465
    },
    {
     "bucket": "50-60",
     "week": "M2",
     "n": 4952,
     "mean_conf": 57.0,
     "hit_rate": 0.4612
    },
    {
     "bucket": "50-60",
     "week": "M3",
     "n": 4916,
     "mean_conf": 56.9,
     "hit_rate": 0.4567
    },
    {
     "bucket": "60-70",
     "week": "M1",
     "n": 12588,
     "mean_conf": 63.3,
     "hit_rate": 0.4448
    },
    {
     "bucket": "60-70",
     "week": "M2",
     "n": 12120,
     "mean_conf": 63.0,
     "hit_rate": 0.469
    },
    {
     "bucket": "60-70",
     "week": "M3",
     "n": 13432,
     "mean_conf": 62.9,
     "hit_rate": 0.4545
    },
    {
     "bucket": "70-80",
     "week": "M1",
     "n": 2262,
     "mean_conf": 73.0,
     "hit_rate": 0.4443
    },
    {
     "bucket": "70-80",
     "week": "M2",
     "n": 2213,
     "mean_conf": 72.9,
     "hit_rate": 0.4365
    },
    {
     "bucket": "70-80",
     "week": "M3",
     "n": 2260,
     "mean_conf": 72.9,
     "hit_rate": 0.4553
    },
    {
     "bucket": "80-100",
     "week": "M1",
     "n": 58,
     "mean_conf": 81.8,
     "hit_rate": 0.5862
    },
    {
     "bucket": "80-100",
     "week": "M2",
     "n": 42,
     "mean_conf": 81.0,
     "hit_rate": 0.5
    },
    {
     "bucket": "80-100",
     "week": "M3",
     "n": 34,
     "mean_conf": 80.5,
     "hit_rate": 0.4412
    }
   ],
   "level": "field (all models pooled)",
   "source": "quarter_pull_split_by_slot_month (cutoff 2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00)"
  },
  "prior_window_calibration": {
   "applicable": false,
   "reason": "no prior quarter: there is nothing before the platform start (forecasts since 2026-07-11; candles since 2026-07-15)"
  },
  "prior_window_trading": null,
  "verdict_block": {
   "rule": "Verdict rule: each row states one reading of the quarter; a month agrees when it shows the same reading (same sign, or the same name). Confirmed = 2 or 3 of the 3 months agree with the quarter; Rejected = 0 or 1. M1 holds Jul 15-31 only: the platform's first forecast slot is Jul 15 18:01 UTC. Monthly cells come from the frozen monthly packs (7-line roster, lineage spliced); the quarter is the pooled Jul 15-Sep 30 pull.",
   "header": [
    "Metric",
    "M1 Jul 15-31",
    "M2 Aug 1-31",
    "M3 Sep 1-30",
    "Quarter",
    "Verdict"
   ],
   "widths_mm": [
    44,
    26,
    26,
    26,
    20,
    32
   ],
   "weeks_source": "frozen monthly packs (months.M1..M3 of the quarterly pack, 7-line roster, lineage spliced)",
   "month_source": "the pooled Jul 15-Sep 30 pull (quarter block)",
   "rows": [
    {
     "metric": "Field gap (conf - hit), pp",
     "weeks": {
      "M1": {
       "value": "+17.8",
       "reading": "positive"
      },
      "M2": {
       "value": "+16.3",
       "reading": "positive"
      },
      "M3": {
       "value": "+17.0",
       "reading": "positive"
      }
     },
     "month": {
      "value": "+17.0",
      "reading": "positive"
     },
     "agree_count": 3,
     "verdict": "Confirmed (3/3)"
    },
    {
     "metric": "Lowest-Brier model",
     "weeks": {
      "M1": {
       "value": "grok-4.6",
       "reading": "grok-4.6"
      },
      "M2": {
       "value": "opus-5",
       "reading": "claude-opus-5"
      },
      "M3": {
       "value": "qwen-3.8",
       "reading": "qwen-3.8-max"
      }
     },
     "month": {
      "value": "grok-4.6",
      "reading": "grok-4.6"
     },
     "agree_count": 1,
     "verdict": "Rejected (1/3)"
    },
    {
     "metric": "Widest-gap model",
     "weeks": {
      "M1": {
       "value": "gpt-5.6",
       "reading": "gpt-5.6-sol"
      },
      "M2": {
       "value": "gpt-5.6",
       "reading": "gpt-5.6-sol"
      },
      "M3": {
       "value": "gpt-5.6",
       "reading": "gpt-5.6-sol"
      }
     },
     "month": {
      "value": "gpt-5.6",
      "reading": "gpt-5.6-sol"
     },
     "agree_count": 3,
     "verdict": "Confirmed (3/3)"
    }
   ]
  }
 },
 "key_finding": {
  "label": "KEY FINDING · OBSERVATION (one quarterly window)",
  "text": "Over the quarter the field's overconfidence gap read +17.0pp against 62.6 stated mean confidence, the monthly gaps ran +16.3pp to +17.8pp inside it, and the field slope across the three months is -0.40 pp/month (flat).",
  "evidence_level": "observation"
 },
 "key_findings": [
  "**OBSERVATION -- The quarterly gap read +17.0pp.** Directional calls hit 45.6% against 62.6 stated mean confidence over 59,606 calls. Field Brier is 0.2803 and 0 of 7 model lines scored below 0.25, the score of an uninformative always-50% predictor. One quarter, descriptive.",
  "**The field gap slope across the three months is -0.40 pp/month (flat).** Across those months the field gap ran +17.8pp -> +16.3pp -> +17.0pp and the per-model slopes split 3 narrowing / 2 widening / 2 flat under the pack's own rule (|slope| < 0.5 pp/month = flat). grok-4.6 (spliced) is the lowest-Brier line (Brier 0.2716); gemini-3.1-pro leads on hit-rate (47.2%).",
  "**The widest monthly swing belongs to qwen-3.8-max (spliced).** Its monthly gap moved over a 4.0 pp range inside one quarter, against a field range of 1.5 pp. There is no prior quarter; by month the per-model gaps ran +14.2pp to +22.1pp (Jul 15-31), +13.2pp to +21.8pp (Aug 1-31), +14.7pp to +23.5pp (Sep 1-30).",
  "**Trading, kept separate from every calibration table.** 0 of 7 lines finished net-positive over the quarter; net PnL ran -$835.51 (gemini-3.1-pro, best) to -$1141.58 (gpt-5.6-sol, worst), field -$6703.95."
 ],
 "market_check": {
  "label": "MARKET CHECK · OBSERVATION (three months of the quarter)",
  "text": "OBSERVATION -- mean |1d move| 1.54% / 1.98% / 1.91% by month (1.81% over the quarter), BTC realized vol 33.5% / 36.9% / 34.9% (35.1%; ann., hourly); field directional accuracy 45.0% / 46.3% / 45.5% (45.6%), sim win-rate 31.9% / 35.8% / 38.4% (35.4%), field sim PnL -$3095.02 / -$1054.79 / -$2554.15 (-$6703.95) (Jul 15-31 / Aug 1-31 / Sep 1-30, quarter in parentheses; descriptive, three windows, not a claim).",
  "robustness": "Robustness: raw price-sign accuracy 46.8% / 46.0% / 48.4% by month (47.1% over the quarter) against 45.0% / 46.3% / 45.5% (45.6%) under the trade-based hit rule; month to month the two moved in the same direction in 0 of 2 steps.",
  "weeks": {
   "A": {
    "days": "2026-04-01..2026-06-30",
    "slots": [
     "2026-04-01T00:00:00+00:00",
     "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00"
    ],
    "cutoff": "2026-07-01T16:00:00+00:00",
    "partial": false
   },
   "B": {
    "days": "2026-07-01..2026-09-30",
    "slots": [
     "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00",
     "2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00"
    ],
    "cutoff": "2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00"
   }
  },
  "price_source": "crypto_spot/1h@:00",
  "accuracy_field": {
   "A": {
    "n": 0,
    "hit_rate": null,
    "wilson_95": [
     null,
     null
    ]
   },
   "B": {
    "n": 59606,
    "hit_rate": 0.456,
    "wilson_95": [
     0.452,
     0.46
    ]
   },
   "delta_pp": null
  },
  "accuracy_per_model": [
   {
    "model": "claude-fable-5",
    "model_label": "claude-fable-5",
    "A": {
     "n": 0,
     "hit_rate": null,
     "wilson_95": [
      null,
      null
     ]
    },
    "B": {
     "n": 8447,
     "hit_rate": 0.4554,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4448,
      0.4661
     ]
    },
    "delta_pp": null
   },
   {
    "model": "claude-opus-5",
    "model_label": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
    "A": {
     "n": 0,
     "hit_rate": null,
     "wilson_95": [
      null,
      null
     ]
    },
    "B": {
     "n": 8261,
     "hit_rate": 0.4585,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4478,
      0.4693
     ]
    },
    "delta_pp": null
   },
   {
    "model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "model_label": "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "A": {
     "n": 0,
     "hit_rate": null,
     "wilson_95": [
      null,
      null
     ]
    },
    "B": {
     "n": 7799,
     "hit_rate": 0.453,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.442,
      0.4641
     ]
    },
    "delta_pp": null
   },
   {
    "model": "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "model_label": "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "A": {
     "n": 0,
     "hit_rate": null,
     "wilson_95": [
      null,
      null
     ]
    },
    "B": {
     "n": 9130,
     "hit_rate": 0.4716,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4614,
      0.4819
     ]
    },
    "delta_pp": null
   },
   {
    "model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "model_label": "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "A": {
     "n": 0,
     "hit_rate": null,
     "wilson_95": [
      null,
      null
     ]
    },
    "B": {
     "n": 9188,
     "hit_rate": 0.4486,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4385,
      0.4588
     ]
    },
    "delta_pp": null
   },
   {
    "model": "grok-4.6",
    "model_label": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
    "A": {
     "n": 0,
     "hit_rate": null,
     "wilson_95": [
      null,
      null
     ]
    },
    "B": {
     "n": 7244,
     "hit_rate": 0.45,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4386,
      0.4615
     ]
    },
    "delta_pp": null
   },
   {
    "model": "qwen-3.8-max",
    "model_label": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)",
    "A": {
     "n": 0,
     "hit_rate": null,
     "wilson_95": [
      null,
      null
     ]
    },
    "B": {
     "n": 9537,
     "hit_rate": 0.4535,
     "wilson_95": [
      0.4435,
      0.4635
     ]
    },
    "delta_pp": null
   }
  ],
  "raw_sign_field": {
   "A": {
    "n_scored": 0,
    "hit_rate": null
   },
   "B": {
    "n_scored": 57798,
    "hit_rate": 0.471
   }
  },
  "abs_move_1d": {
   "A": null,
   "B": 1.806,
   "delta_pct_rel": null
  },
  "btc_realized_vol_ann_pct_hourly": {
   "A": null,
   "B": 35.11
  },
  "trading_field": {
   "A": {
    "n_trades": 0
   },
   "B": {
    "n_trades": 59606,
    "wr": 0.354,
    "pnl_net_usd": -6703.95,
    "pnl_gross_usd": -743.35
   }
  },
  "verdict": {
   "models_with_hit_improved": null,
   "models_with_rawsign_improved": null,
   "models_with_wr_improved": null,
   "field_hit_delta_pp": null,
   "field_pnl_net": {
    "A": null,
    "B": -6703.95
   },
   "abs_move_delta": {
    "1h": {
     "A": null,
     "B": 0.323,
     "delta_pct_rel": null
    },
    "4h": {
     "A": null,
     "B": 0.672,
     "delta_pct_rel": null
    },
    "1d": {
     "A": null,
     "B": 1.806,
     "delta_pct_rel": null
    }
   },
   "btc_vol_ann_pct": {
    "A": null,
    "B": 35.11
   },
   "note": "descriptive, two adjacent windows; hit rule = methodology v1.1 trade-based; raw_sign = price-sign robustness check (closes at :00 vs slots at :01)"
  },
  "lineage_note": "lineage splice ACTIVE for all 7 heads: [('claude-opus-4.8', 'claude-opus-5'), ('grok-4.5', 'grok-4.6'), ('qwen-3.7-max', 'qwen-3.8-max')]. Window QUARTER remapped 24922 row(s), the previous window 0. Labels are generated from the pulled rows (see lineage_era).",
  "prior_window_partial": false,
  "by_month": {
   "M1": {
    "mean_abs_move_1d_pct": 1.536,
    "btc_vol_ann_pct_hourly": 33.46,
    "field_hit_rate": 0.4498,
    "models_improving_vs_previous_month": null,
    "raw_sign_hit_rate": 0.4684,
    "sim_win_rate": 0.3188,
    "sim_net_pnl_usd": -3095.02,
    "label": "Jul 15-31"
   },
   "M2": {
    "mean_abs_move_1d_pct": 1.979,
    "btc_vol_ann_pct_hourly": 36.92,
    "field_hit_rate": 0.4633,
    "models_improving_vs_previous_month": "5 of 7",
    "raw_sign_hit_rate": 0.4599,
    "sim_win_rate": 0.3576,
    "sim_net_pnl_usd": -1054.79,
    "label": "Aug 1-31"
   },
   "M3": {
    "mean_abs_move_1d_pct": 1.905,
    "btc_vol_ann_pct_hourly": 34.88,
    "field_hit_rate": 0.455,
    "models_improving_vs_previous_month": "1 of 7",
    "raw_sign_hit_rate": 0.4837,
    "sim_win_rate": 0.384,
    "sim_net_pnl_usd": -2554.15,
    "label": "Sep 1-30"
   },
   "quarter": {
    "mean_abs_move_1d_pct": 1.806,
    "btc_vol_ann_pct_hourly": 35.11,
    "field_hit_rate": 0.456,
    "models_improving_vs_previous_month": null,
    "raw_sign_hit_rate": 0.471,
    "sim_win_rate": 0.354,
    "sim_net_pnl_usd": -6703.95,
    "label": "Jul 15-Sep 30, 2026"
   }
  }
 },
 "why_it_matters": "Every MarketMania forecast carries a model-stated confidence from 0 to 100 alongside its direction call. This report checks whether that number tracks reality: on a well-calibrated forecaster, calls made at 70% confidence should hit their direction about 70% of the time. The monthly series carries one point per model per issue. A calendar quarter carries three monthly points plus a pooled quarterly figure (this first issue has no prior-quarter baseline), which is what the slope table and the month-by-month confidence buckets below are computed from. Descriptive for this window.",
 "how_to_read_this": "Gap pp = mean stated confidence minus hit-rate, in percentage points; positive means overconfident. Brier is the mean squared error of the stated probability against the realised outcome, so lower is better and 0.25 is what an uninformative always-50% predictor scores. Coverage = calls scored divided by the mature calls available to that model. Confidence buckets are the models' own natural breakpoints, not an arbitrary binning; cells below N=10 are marked insufficient and never used to rank anything. Prediction and trading metrics live in separate sections and are never combined. 3 model lines are lineage splices this quarter (claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30); grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24); qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)). The quarterly rows are one pull at the quarterly cutoff (Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC); the monthly rows are the frozen monthly packs at their own cutoffs, so the two do not have to agree to the last decimal.",
 "practical_implications": [
  "Pooled over the quarter the field's gap is +17.0pp on 59,606 scored calls: stated confidence averaged 62.6 while the direction hit 45.6%.",
  "The field gap spans 1.5 pp across the three months inside the quarter, against a pooled quarterly gap of +17.0pp on field mean stated confidence of 62.6 (by month 62.8 / 62.6 / 62.6). The prior-quarter gap reads n/a because this is the first quarterly issue: there is no prior quarter (platform data begin Jul 15, 2026).",
  "Trading over the quarter finished 0 of 7 lines net-positive (by month 0 / 0 / 0); the pack labels one of the three months calm and two volatile. The prior-quarter comparison reads n/a because this is the first quarterly issue: there is no prior quarter (platform data begin Jul 15, 2026)."
 ],
 "limitations": [
  "No prior quarter: this is the first quarterly issue (platform data begin Jul 15, 2026), so every \"prior\" cell reads n/a and the page-2 chart carries no gray series; a month inside the quarter is not a prior window. Partial quarter: the window is the calendar quarter Jul 1-Sep 30; the platform's first forecast slot is Jul 15 18:01 UTC, so 78 of 92 days carry data. Asset universe: the quarter's rows also carry 1,592 directional calls on AVAX (414), DOGE (347), LINK (436), PEPE (394) and TON (1), all in Jul 15-31; they are counted in the field totals but not ranked in the asset tables.",
  "Two cutoffs live in this issue. The quarter is frozen at Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC; the three monthly blocks are frozen at their own published cutoffs (M1 Jul 15-31, M2 Aug 1-31, M3 Sep 1-30). A forecast still pending at its month's cutoff is immature in the monthly pack and mature in the quarter pull, so the quarter need not equal the sum of the months; here the two agree (59,606 vs 59,606 directional; no day of the quarter falls outside the three months): the quarter pull split by slot month gives 19,541 / 19,383 / 20,682, the same as the frozen monthly packs.",
  "Prediction metrics (this report) and trading metrics are kept in separate sections per methodology -- they are never combined into a single score. 95% Wilson CIs shown are descriptive, not inferential: observations inside one window are dependent, so read them as a range, not a formal coverage guarantee.",
  "All 59,606 scored calls sit inside one calendar quarter, and three monthly points are three points: an OLS slope over them is a description of this quarter, not evidence of drift. This window ran 24 trend days of 77 with a BTC daily move (Jul 1-15 carry none), and the pack's own volatility rule splits the three months of the quarter as M1 calm, M2 volatile, M3 volatile; every month-to-month comparison inside the quarter is a comparison across regimes as well as across windows. Models report confidence at discrete levels, not a continuous scale; the buckets reflect those natural breakpoints and cells below N=10 are marked insufficient.",
  "Underlying price series are reconstructed from trade entry prices (median per symbol-slot), not an independent tick feed. Series density and lineage notes (quarterly #1): (1) rolling-1w forecasts emit daily since Aug 22, 2026 and rolling-1M daily since Aug 23, 2026, so across this 92-day window daily coverage is PARTIAL as measured -- the 1w series has slots on 55 of 92 days and the 1M series on 41 of 92 days; both sit outside this report's FH gate (1h/4h/1d) and appear only in the exclusions counter (1w 4,001, 1M 2,787). (2) 3 model lines are lineage splices inside this window: claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30); grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24); qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5). (3) Every per-model aggregate in this issue sees the merged head id; the raw id is kept in the pack, and 24,922 rows were remapped inside the quarter (19,532 / 5,390 / 0 in Jul 15-31 / Aug 1-31 / Sep 1-30).",
  "Market-state row is computed on a single-exchange (binance) daily candle series, as in the weekly series after the audit that found the raw table mixes two exchanges. The quarter block covers 78 days (Jul 15-Sep 30) of the 92-day calendar quarter, and there is no prior-quarter block, so the TOP5 volume figure is a 78-day sum with no quarter-over-quarter change.",
  "Research-to-date counter: directional forecasts resolved inside the FH gate (1h/4h/1d) since Jul 11, counted at the issue cutoff (Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) -- the D2 definition pinned in the weekly series; this issue prints 59,755. The pack carries no prior-cutoff pin for a quarterly window (not applicable: there is no prior quarter, and the prior-cutoff counts are 0 by construction), so the control this issue is the monthly reproduction: the M3 block of this pack (Sep 1-30) reproduces the published Monthly #2 on 7 of 7 checks, the M2 block (Aug 1-31, cutoff Tue Sep 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the published Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks, and the M1 block (Jul 15-31, cutoff Sat Aug 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the prior window of Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks. Counter deltas against pre-wave-3 issues remain definitional."
 ],
 "notes": {
  "series_density_and_lineage_quarterly1": "Series density and lineage notes (quarterly #1): (1) rolling-1w forecasts emit daily since Aug 22, 2026 and rolling-1M daily since Aug 23, 2026, so across this 92-day window daily coverage is PARTIAL as measured -- the 1w series has slots on 55 of 92 days and the 1M series on 41 of 92 days; both sit outside this report's FH gate (1h/4h/1d) and appear only in the exclusions counter (1w 4,001, 1M 2,787). (2) 3 model lines are lineage splices inside this window: claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30); grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24); qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5). (3) Every per-model aggregate in this issue sees the merged head id; the raw id is kept in the pack, and 24,922 rows were remapped inside the quarter (19,532 / 5,390 / 0 in Jul 15-31 / Aug 1-31 / Sep 1-30).",
  "grok_era": {
   "ids_in_window": [
    "grok-4.5",
    "grok-4.6"
   ],
   "n_grok45": 11128,
   "n_grok46": 7870,
   "n_grok45_rows": 11128,
   "n_grok46_rows": 7870,
   "first_grok46_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00",
   "last_grok45_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
   "first_grok45_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
   "flip_at": "2026-08-24T09:22:00+00:00",
   "flip_inside_window": true,
   "prev_window": {
    "n_grok45_rows": 0,
    "n_grok46_rows": 0
   },
   "merged_model_id": "grok-4.6",
   "merged_label": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
   "lineage_ids": [
    "grok-4.5",
    "grok-4.6"
   ],
   "lineage_source": "benchmarks.config.lineage_ids(head) for each of the 7 heads + MODEL_SUCCESSION[claude-opus-5=('claude-opus-4.8',), grok-4.6=('grok-4.5',), qwen-3.8-max=('qwen-3.7-max',)]",
   "lineage_warnings": [],
   "rows_remapped_a_plus_b": 11128,
   "note": "window QUARTER [2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00, 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00): grok-4.5 rows 11128, grok-4.6 rows 7870; flip 2026-08-24T09:22:00+00:00 is inside this window. All per-model aggregates use the lineage splice grok-4.5 -> grok-4.6 (one row, labelled 'grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)'). See lineage_era for the same facts across all 7 heads.",
   "cells_with_two_grok_rows": 865
  },
  "model_ids_line": [
   "claude-fable-5",
   "claude-opus-5",
   "deepseek-v4-pro",
   "gemini-3.1-pro",
   "gpt-5.6-sol",
   "grok-4.6",
   "qwen-3.8-max"
  ],
  "model_roster": {
   "current": [
    "claude-fable-5",
    "claude-opus-5",
    "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "grok-4.6",
    "qwen-3.8-max"
   ],
   "current_count": 7,
   "current_raw_ids_in_window": [
    "claude-fable-5",
    "claude-opus-4.8",
    "claude-opus-5",
    "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "grok-4.5",
    "grok-4.6",
    "qwen-3.7-max",
    "qwen-3.8-max"
   ],
   "archived_legacy": [
    "grok-4.5",
    "qwen-3.7-max",
    "claude-opus-4.8"
   ],
   "archived_legacy_count": 3,
   "archived_legacy_detail": [
    {
     "model": "grok-4.5",
     "n_rows_since": 11128,
     "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00"
    },
    {
     "model": "qwen-3.7-max",
     "n_rows_since": 7479,
     "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00"
    },
    {
     "model": "claude-opus-4.8",
     "n_rows_since": 6315,
     "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00"
    }
   ],
   "archived_excluding_lineage_merged": [],
   "tracked_total": 10,
   "canon_expected": {
    "current": 7,
    "archived_legacy": 4,
    "tracked_total": 11
   },
   "matches_canon_11_7_4": false,
   "roster_rule_w213": "7 models tracked (current line-up; earlier versions folded into their successors' lineage)",
   "canon_expected_w213": {
    "current": 7
   },
   "heads_w213": [
    "claude-fable-5",
    "claude-opus-5",
    "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "grok-4.6",
    "qwen-3.8-max"
   ],
   "matches_canon_7_current": true,
   "heads_missing_in_window": [],
   "heads_unexpected_in_window": [],
   "roster_since": "2026-07-11T00:00:00+00:00",
   "note": "current = merged-lineage model ids emitting inside the window (legacy ids are spliced into their successor); archived legacy = raw ids seen since 2026-07-11 that no longer emit in the window. Models retired before 2026-07-11 are not visible to this query. The canon checks are DESCRIPTIVE: if the data says otherwise, the data wins and is printed."
  },
  "series_density": {
   "1d": {
    "days_with_slots": 77,
    "expected_days": 92,
    "full_daily_coverage": false,
    "in_fh_gate": true,
    "n_slots": 77,
    "n_rows": 6930,
    "days": [
     "2026-07-16",
     "2026-07-17",
     "2026-07-18",
     "2026-07-19",
     "2026-07-20",
     "2026-07-21",
     "2026-07-22",
     "2026-07-23",
     "2026-07-24",
     "2026-07-25",
     "2026-07-26",
     "2026-07-27",
     "2026-07-28",
     "2026-07-29",
     "2026-07-30",
     "2026-07-31",
     "2026-08-01",
     "2026-08-02",
     "2026-08-03",
     "2026-08-04",
     "2026-08-05",
     "2026-08-06",
     "2026-08-07",
     "2026-08-08",
     "2026-08-09",
     "2026-08-10",
     "2026-08-11",
     "2026-08-12",
     "2026-08-13",
     "2026-08-14",
     "2026-08-15",
     "2026-08-16",
     "2026-08-17",
     "2026-08-18",
     "2026-08-19",
     "2026-08-20",
     "2026-08-21",
     "2026-08-22",
     "2026-08-23",
     "2026-08-24",
     "2026-08-25",
     "2026-08-26",
     "2026-08-27",
     "2026-08-28",
     "2026-08-29",
     "2026-08-30",
     "2026-08-31",
     "2026-09-01",
     "2026-09-02",
     "2026-09-03",
     "2026-09-04",
     "2026-09-05",
     "2026-09-06",
     "2026-09-07",
     "2026-09-08",
     "2026-09-09",
     "2026-09-10",
     "2026-09-11",
     "2026-09-12",
     "2026-09-13",
     "2026-09-14",
     "2026-09-15",
     "2026-09-16",
     "2026-09-17",
     "2026-09-18",
     "2026-09-19",
     "2026-09-20",
     "2026-09-21",
     "2026-09-22",
     "2026-09-23",
     "2026-09-24",
     "2026-09-25",
     "2026-09-26",
     "2026-09-27",
     "2026-09-28",
     "2026-09-29",
     "2026-09-30"
    ],
    "missing_days": [
     "2026-07-01",
     "2026-07-02",
     "2026-07-03",
     "2026-07-04",
     "2026-07-05",
     "2026-07-06",
     "2026-07-07",
     "2026-07-08",
     "2026-07-09",
     "2026-07-10",
     "2026-07-11",
     "2026-07-12",
     "2026-07-13",
     "2026-07-14",
     "2026-07-15"
    ]
   },
   "1h": {
    "days_with_slots": 78,
    "expected_days": 92,
    "full_daily_coverage": false,
    "in_fh_gate": true,
    "n_slots": 1851,
    "n_rows": 78685,
    "days": [
     "2026-07-15",
     "2026-07-16",
     "2026-07-17",
     "2026-07-18",
     "2026-07-19",
     "2026-07-20",
     "2026-07-21",
     "2026-07-22",
     "2026-07-23",
     "2026-07-24",
     "2026-07-25",
     "2026-07-26",
     "2026-07-27",
     "2026-07-28",
     "2026-07-29",
     "2026-07-30",
     "2026-07-31",
     "2026-08-01",
     "2026-08-02",
     "2026-08-03",
     "2026-08-04",
     "2026-08-05",
     "2026-08-06",
     "2026-08-07",
     "2026-08-08",
     "2026-08-09",
     "2026-08-10",
     "2026-08-11",
     "2026-08-12",
     "2026-08-13",
     "2026-08-14",
     "2026-08-15",
     "2026-08-16",
     "2026-08-17",
     "2026-08-18",
     "2026-08-19",
     "2026-08-20",
     "2026-08-21",
     "2026-08-22",
     "2026-08-23",
     "2026-08-24",
     "2026-08-25",
     "2026-08-26",
     "2026-08-27",
     "2026-08-28",
     "2026-08-29",
     "2026-08-30",
     "2026-08-31",
     "2026-09-01",
     "2026-09-02",
     "2026-09-03",
     "2026-09-04",
     "2026-09-05",
     "2026-09-06",
     "2026-09-07",
     "2026-09-08",
     "2026-09-09",
     "2026-09-10",
     "2026-09-11",
     "2026-09-12",
     "2026-09-13",
     "2026-09-14",
     "2026-09-15",
     "2026-09-16",
     "2026-09-17",
     "2026-09-18",
     "2026-09-19",
     "2026-09-20",
     "2026-09-21",
     "2026-09-22",
     "2026-09-23",
     "2026-09-24",
     "2026-09-25",
     "2026-09-26",
     "2026-09-27",
     "2026-09-28",
     "2026-09-29",
     "2026-09-30"
    ],
    "missing_days": [
     "2026-07-01",
     "2026-07-02",
     "2026-07-03",
     "2026-07-04",
     "2026-07-05",
     "2026-07-06",
     "2026-07-07",
     "2026-07-08",
     "2026-07-09",
     "2026-07-10",
     "2026-07-11",
     "2026-07-12",
     "2026-07-13",
     "2026-07-14"
    ]
   },
   "1m": {
    "days_with_slots": 41,
    "expected_days": 92,
    "full_daily_coverage": false,
    "in_fh_gate": false,
    "n_slots": 41,
    "n_rows": 2940,
    "days": [
     "2026-07-20",
     "2026-08-01",
     "2026-08-23",
     "2026-08-24",
     "2026-08-25",
     "2026-08-26",
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     "2026-09-16",
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     "2026-09-20",
     "2026-09-21",
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    "missing_days": [
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     "2026-07-11",
     "2026-07-12",
     "2026-07-13",
     "2026-07-14",
     "2026-07-15",
     "2026-07-16",
     "2026-07-17",
     "2026-07-18",
     "2026-07-19",
     "2026-07-21",
     "2026-07-22",
     "2026-07-23",
     "2026-07-24",
     "2026-07-25",
     "2026-07-26",
     "2026-07-27",
     "2026-07-28",
     "2026-07-29",
     "2026-07-30",
     "2026-07-31",
     "2026-08-02",
     "2026-08-03",
     "2026-08-04",
     "2026-08-05",
     "2026-08-06",
     "2026-08-07",
     "2026-08-08",
     "2026-08-09",
     "2026-08-10",
     "2026-08-11",
     "2026-08-12",
     "2026-08-13",
     "2026-08-14",
     "2026-08-15",
     "2026-08-16",
     "2026-08-17",
     "2026-08-18",
     "2026-08-19",
     "2026-08-20",
     "2026-08-21",
     "2026-08-22"
    ]
   },
   "1w": {
    "days_with_slots": 55,
    "expected_days": 92,
    "full_daily_coverage": false,
    "in_fh_gate": false,
    "n_slots": 55,
    "n_rows": 4830,
    "days": [
     "2026-07-16",
     "2026-07-17",
     "2026-07-18",
     "2026-07-19",
     "2026-07-20",
     "2026-07-21",
     "2026-07-22",
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     "2026-09-19",
     "2026-09-20",
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     "2026-09-23",
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     "2026-09-28",
     "2026-09-29",
     "2026-09-30"
    ],
    "missing_days": [
     "2026-07-01",
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     "2026-07-07",
     "2026-07-08",
     "2026-07-09",
     "2026-07-10",
     "2026-07-11",
     "2026-07-12",
     "2026-07-13",
     "2026-07-14",
     "2026-07-15",
     "2026-07-28",
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     "2026-07-30",
     "2026-07-31",
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     "2026-08-04",
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     "2026-08-07",
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     "2026-08-09",
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     "2026-08-12",
     "2026-08-13",
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     "2026-08-15",
     "2026-08-16",
     "2026-08-18",
     "2026-08-19",
     "2026-08-20",
     "2026-08-21"
    ]
   },
   "4h": {
    "days_with_slots": 78,
    "expected_days": 92,
    "full_daily_coverage": false,
    "in_fh_gate": true,
    "n_slots": 462,
    "n_rows": 39654,
    "days": [
     "2026-07-15",
     "2026-07-16",
     "2026-07-17",
     "2026-07-18",
     "2026-07-19",
     "2026-07-20",
     "2026-07-21",
     "2026-07-22",
     "2026-07-23",
     "2026-07-24",
     "2026-07-25",
     "2026-07-26",
     "2026-07-27",
     "2026-07-28",
     "2026-07-29",
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     "2026-07-31",
     "2026-08-01",
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     "2026-08-03",
     "2026-08-04",
     "2026-08-05",
     "2026-08-06",
     "2026-08-07",
     "2026-08-08",
     "2026-08-09",
     "2026-08-10",
     "2026-08-11",
     "2026-08-12",
     "2026-08-13",
     "2026-08-14",
     "2026-08-15",
     "2026-08-16",
     "2026-08-17",
     "2026-08-18",
     "2026-08-19",
     "2026-08-20",
     "2026-08-21",
     "2026-08-22",
     "2026-08-23",
     "2026-08-24",
     "2026-08-25",
     "2026-08-26",
     "2026-08-27",
     "2026-08-28",
     "2026-08-29",
     "2026-08-30",
     "2026-08-31",
     "2026-09-01",
     "2026-09-02",
     "2026-09-03",
     "2026-09-04",
     "2026-09-05",
     "2026-09-06",
     "2026-09-07",
     "2026-09-08",
     "2026-09-09",
     "2026-09-10",
     "2026-09-11",
     "2026-09-12",
     "2026-09-13",
     "2026-09-14",
     "2026-09-15",
     "2026-09-16",
     "2026-09-17",
     "2026-09-18",
     "2026-09-19",
     "2026-09-20",
     "2026-09-21",
     "2026-09-22",
     "2026-09-23",
     "2026-09-24",
     "2026-09-25",
     "2026-09-26",
     "2026-09-27",
     "2026-09-28",
     "2026-09-29",
     "2026-09-30"
    ],
    "missing_days": [
     "2026-07-01",
     "2026-07-02",
     "2026-07-03",
     "2026-07-04",
     "2026-07-05",
     "2026-07-06",
     "2026-07-07",
     "2026-07-08",
     "2026-07-09",
     "2026-07-10",
     "2026-07-11",
     "2026-07-12",
     "2026-07-13",
     "2026-07-14"
    ]
   }
  },
  "month_over_month_note": "Quarter-over-quarter columns would compare the prior quarter against Jul 15-Sep 30 (this issue); every prior cell reads n/a because this is the first quarterly issue: there is no prior quarter (platform data begin Jul 15, 2026).",
  "research_to_date_pin": "Research-to-date counter: directional forecasts resolved inside the FH gate (1h/4h/1d) since Jul 11, counted at the issue cutoff (Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) -- the D2 definition pinned in the weekly series; this issue prints 59,755. The pack carries no prior-cutoff pin for a quarterly window (not applicable: there is no prior quarter, and the prior-cutoff counts are 0 by construction), so the control this issue is the monthly reproduction: the M3 block of this pack (Sep 1-30) reproduces the published Monthly #2 on 7 of 7 checks, the M2 block (Aug 1-31, cutoff Tue Sep 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the published Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks, and the M1 block (Jul 15-31, cutoff Sat Aug 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the prior window of Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks. Counter deltas against pre-wave-3 issues remain definitional.",
  "market_state_audit": "Market-state row is computed on a single-exchange (binance) daily candle series, as in the weekly series after the audit that found the raw table mixes two exchanges. The quarter block covers 78 days (Jul 15-Sep 30) of the 92-day calendar quarter, and there is no prior-quarter block, so the TOP5 volume figure is a 78-day sum with no quarter-over-quarter change.",
  "engine": "Engine 1.1 has powered the sandbox since Aug 18, i.e. inside this window; no cross-engine PnL comparisons are claimed.",
  "report_template": "PDF built with the canonical mm_report.py template module; preview card with report_preview.render_preview",
  "lineage_era": {
   "window_key": "QUARTER",
   "heads": [
    "claude-fable-5",
    "claude-opus-5",
    "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "grok-4.6",
    "qwen-3.8-max"
   ],
   "lineage_map": {
    "claude-opus-4.8": "claude-opus-5",
    "grok-4.5": "grok-4.6",
    "qwen-3.7-max": "qwen-3.8-max"
   },
   "legacy_by_head": {
    "claude-fable-5": [],
    "claude-opus-5": [
     "claude-opus-4.8"
    ],
    "deepseek-v4-pro": [],
    "gemini-3.1-pro": [],
    "gpt-5.6-sol": [],
    "grok-4.6": [
     "grok-4.5"
    ],
    "qwen-3.8-max": [
     "qwen-3.7-max"
    ]
   },
   "lineage_source": "benchmarks.config.lineage_ids(head) for each of the 7 heads + MODEL_SUCCESSION[claude-opus-5=('claude-opus-4.8',), grok-4.6=('grok-4.5',), qwen-3.8-max=('qwen-3.7-max',)]",
   "lineage_resolved_heads": [
    "claude-fable-5",
    "claude-opus-5",
    "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "grok-4.6",
    "qwen-3.8-max"
   ],
   "lineage_warnings": [],
   "per_head": {
    "claude-fable-5": {
     "legacy_ids": [],
     "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
     "n_rows_remapped": {},
     "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
     "by_legacy_id": {},
     "first_legacy_slot": null,
     "last_legacy_slot": null,
     "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
     "n_rows_successor": 19009,
     "spliced_in_window": false,
     "label": "claude-fable-5"
    },
    "claude-opus-5": {
     "legacy_ids": [
      "claude-opus-4.8"
     ],
     "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
      "claude-opus-4.8"
     ],
     "n_rows_remapped": {
      "claude-opus-4.8": 6315
     },
     "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
      "claude-opus-4.8": 0
     },
     "by_legacy_id": {
      "claude-opus-4.8": {
       "n_rows_remapped": {
        "QUARTER": 6315,
        "prev_window": 0
       },
       "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
       "last_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
       "first_slot_prev_window": null,
       "last_slot_prev_window": null
      }
     },
     "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
     "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
     "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
     "n_rows_successor": 12695,
     "spliced_in_window": true,
     "label": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)"
    },
    "deepseek-v4-pro": {
     "legacy_ids": [],
     "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
     "n_rows_remapped": {},
     "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
     "by_legacy_id": {},
     "first_legacy_slot": null,
     "last_legacy_slot": null,
     "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
     "n_rows_successor": 19007,
     "spliced_in_window": false,
     "label": "deepseek-v4-pro"
    },
    "gemini-3.1-pro": {
     "legacy_ids": [],
     "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
     "n_rows_remapped": {},
     "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
     "by_legacy_id": {},
     "first_legacy_slot": null,
     "last_legacy_slot": null,
     "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
     "n_rows_successor": 19006,
     "spliced_in_window": false,
     "label": "gemini-3.1-pro"
    },
    "gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "legacy_ids": [],
     "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
     "n_rows_remapped": {},
     "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {},
     "by_legacy_id": {},
     "first_legacy_slot": null,
     "last_legacy_slot": null,
     "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
     "n_rows_successor": 19010,
     "spliced_in_window": false,
     "label": "gpt-5.6-sol"
    },
    "grok-4.6": {
     "legacy_ids": [
      "grok-4.5"
     ],
     "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
      "grok-4.5"
     ],
     "n_rows_remapped": {
      "grok-4.5": 11128
     },
     "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
      "grok-4.5": 0
     },
     "by_legacy_id": {
      "grok-4.5": {
       "n_rows_remapped": {
        "QUARTER": 11128,
        "prev_window": 0
       },
       "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
       "last_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
       "first_slot_prev_window": null,
       "last_slot_prev_window": null
      }
     },
     "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
     "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00",
     "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
     "n_rows_successor": 7870,
     "spliced_in_window": true,
     "label": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)"
    },
    "qwen-3.8-max": {
     "legacy_ids": [
      "qwen-3.7-max"
     ],
     "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
      "qwen-3.7-max"
     ],
     "n_rows_remapped": {
      "qwen-3.7-max": 7479
     },
     "n_rows_remapped_prev_window": {
      "qwen-3.7-max": 0
     },
     "by_legacy_id": {
      "qwen-3.7-max": {
       "n_rows_remapped": {
        "QUARTER": 7479,
        "prev_window": 0
       },
       "first_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
       "last_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
       "first_slot_prev_window": null,
       "last_slot_prev_window": null
      }
     },
     "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
     "last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
     "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-05T10:01:00+00:00",
     "last_successor_slot": "2026-09-30T23:01:00+00:00",
     "n_rows_successor": 11520,
     "spliced_in_window": true,
     "label": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
    }
   },
   "labels": {
    "claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
    "claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
    "deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
    "gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
    "gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
    "grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
    "qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
   },
   "rows_remapped_window": 24922,
   "rows_remapped_prev_window": 0,
   "note": "Only the 7 current models are tracked; earlier versions are folded into their successors' lineage. Every per-model aggregate in this pack sees the merged head id; the raw id survives in model_raw. Labels and era spans are generated from the pulled rows, not hardcoded.",
   "cells_with_two_rows_per_head": {
    "claude-fable-5": 1257,
    "claude-opus-5": 1258,
    "deepseek-v4-pro": 1257,
    "gemini-3.1-pro": 1230,
    "gpt-5.6-sol": 1258,
    "grok-4.6": 865,
    "qwen-3.8-max": 1253
   }
  },
  "frozen_cutoffs": "Two cutoffs live in this issue. The quarter is frozen at Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC; the three monthly blocks are frozen at their own published cutoffs (M1 Jul 15-31, M2 Aug 1-31, M3 Sep 1-30). A forecast still pending at its month's cutoff is immature in the monthly pack and mature in the quarter pull, so the quarter need not equal the sum of the months; here the two agree (59,606 vs 59,606 directional; no day of the quarter falls outside the three months): the quarter pull split by slot month gives 19,541 / 19,383 / 20,682, the same as the frozen monthly packs.",
  "partial_prior_window": "No prior quarter: this is the first quarterly issue (platform data begin Jul 15, 2026), so every \"prior\" cell reads n/a and the page-2 chart carries no gray series; a month inside the quarter is not a prior window. Partial quarter: the window is the calendar quarter Jul 1-Sep 30; the platform's first forecast slot is Jul 15 18:01 UTC, so 78 of 92 days carry data. Asset universe: the quarter's rows also carry 1,592 directional calls on AVAX (414), DOGE (347), LINK (436), PEPE (394) and TON (1), all in Jul 15-31; they are counted in the field totals but not ranked in the asset tables."
 },
 "platform_note_tpsl": "**Context, not a finding.** Since Aug 13 the public sandbox can trade with model-specific TP/SL multipliers learned from this same history (v1); since Aug 19, v2 adds per-ticker and confidence-bucket (50-70 / 70-100) resolution. Both switches landed INSIDE this window, so the quarter spans three feature states. That feature consumes calibration history; it does not feed back into any table in this report, which measures stated confidence vs. direction-hit only. No effect size is claimed for v1 or v2. The toggle lives at marketmania.ai/indices.",
 "living_series_note": "**Issue #1.** Quarterly Calibration is a living quarterly comparison; each issue appends one more calendar quarter of confidence-vs-hit data. This first issue sets the baseline on a partial quarter (Jul 15-Sep 30): field gap +17.0pp on 59,606 scored calls, field Brier 0.2803, monthly gaps +17.8pp -> +16.3pp -> +17.0pp, field slope -0.40 pp/month (flat); there is no prior quarter. 3 model lines are lineage splices this quarter (claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30); grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24); qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)). Engine 1.1 has powered the sandbox since Aug 18, i.e. inside this window; no cross-engine PnL comparisons are claimed.",
 "testing_next": [
  "Quarterly #2 (Q4 2026): the same three series over Oct 1-Dec 31, cut on Jan 1 plus the maturity lag, so its quarter-over-quarter comparison runs against this partial Q3.",
  "Quarterly Config Watch #1: the same Q3 window through the config search engine (w309), published as the fourth quarterly report of this issue.",
  "Quarterly Stability Index: Run 3, the next repeat-prompt stability run, is the first cross-quarter point on model stability."
 ],
 "related_research": [
  {
   "title": "Quarterly Consensus Watch #1",
   "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/consensus-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf"
  },
  {
   "title": "Quarterly Model Watch #1",
   "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/model-watch-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf"
  },
  {
   "title": "Monthly Calibration #2",
   "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/calibration-monthly-2026-09.pdf"
  }
 ],
 "related_research_note": "The three quarterly reports publish together as one issue each quarter; each links straight to the others' PDF and to the last monthly issue of the same series. Direct links are the posting rule from wave 2 on.",
 "citation": {
  "bibtex_key": "mm_calibration_quarterly_2026q3",
  "title": "Quarterly Calibration #1: confidence vs. direction-hit, Jul 15-Sep 30 2026",
  "author": "MarketMania Research",
  "year": 2026,
  "month": "October",
  "day": 8,
  "url": "https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/calibration-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf",
  "note": "Methodology v1.1; window Jul 15-Sep 30, 2026 UTC; source quarterly_metrics_2026-q3.json"
 },
 "research_to_date": {
  "this_report": {
   "scored_observations": 59606
  },
  "platform": {
   "as_of_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
   "resolved_forecasts": 59755,
   "resolved_forecasts_definition": "directional forecasts resolved inside the FH gate (1h/4h/1d) since Jul 11, at the issue cutoff",
   "resolved_forecasts_since": "2026-07-11",
   "models_tracked": 7,
   "models_tracked_detail": "7 models tracked (current line-up; earlier versions folded into their successors' lineage)",
   "assets": 5,
   "forecast_horizons": 5,
   "cadence": "hourly",
   "published_research_reports": 48
  },
  "source": "quarterly_metrics_2026-q3.json",
  "control_reproduces_wave3_pin": null,
  "pin_note": "Research-to-date counter: directional forecasts resolved inside the FH gate (1h/4h/1d) since Jul 11, counted at the issue cutoff (Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) -- the D2 definition pinned in the weekly series; this issue prints 59,755. The pack carries no prior-cutoff pin for a quarterly window (not applicable: there is no prior quarter, and the prior-cutoff counts are 0 by construction), so the control this issue is the monthly reproduction: the M3 block of this pack (Sep 1-30) reproduces the published Monthly #2 on 7 of 7 checks, the M2 block (Aug 1-31, cutoff Tue Sep 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the published Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks, and the M1 block (Jul 15-31, cutoff Sat Aug 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC) reproduces the prior window of Monthly #1 on 7 of 7 checks. Counter deltas against pre-wave-3 issues remain definitional.",
  "control_last_month_reproduces_monthly2": {
   "pins_source": "the published Monthly #2 JSONs calibration-monthly-2026-09.json, consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json, model-watch-monthly-2026-09.json",
   "note": "M3 of this run is the Monthly #2 window with the Monthly #2 frozen cutoff, so every pin must reproduce exactly. A mismatch means the window or the cutoff moved -- non-fatal here, but the quarterly numbers must not be published until it is explained.",
   "checks": {
    "counters.mature_directional": {
     "pin": 20682,
     "got": 20682,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0
    },
    "calibration.field.hit_rate": {
     "pin": 0.455,
     "got": 0.455,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 5e-05
    },
    "calibration.field.gap_pp": {
     "pin": 17.0,
     "got": 17.0,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0.05
    },
    "consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp": {
     "pin": -9.7,
     "got": -9.7,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0.05
    },
    "model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].model": {
     "pin": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "got": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0
    },
    "model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].hit_rate": {
     "pin": 0.4851,
     "got": 0.4851,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 5e-05
    },
    "research_to_date.canonical_value_at_cutoff": {
     "pin": 59755,
     "got": 59755,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0
    }
   },
   "all_match": true,
   "n_checks": 7,
   "n_match": 7,
   "last_month_key": "M3",
   "window_key": "M3"
  },
  "prior_cutoff_control": "not applicable: no prior quarter (the pack's research_to_date.prev_pin_applicable is false)"
 },
 "site_entry": {
  "slug": "calibration-quarterly-2026-q3",
  "series": "quarterly",
  "seriesLabel": "Quarterly · Calibration",
  "date": "October 8, 2026",
  "title": "Quarterly Calibration #1",
  "summary": "59,606 directional calls over one calendar quarter (Q3 2026, partial: platform data from Jul 15) asked whether stated confidence tracks reality. The field hit 45.6% against 62.6 stated mean confidence, an overconfidence gap of +17.0pp with field Brier at 0.2803. Month by month the field gap ran +17.8pp -> +16.3pp -> +17.0pp across the three months, an OLS slope of -0.40 pp per month (flat), and the per-model verdicts split 3 narrowing / 2 widening / 2 flat. grok-4.6 (spliced) is the lowest-Brier line at 0.2716 and gemini-3.1-pro leads on hit-rate at 47.2%. Trading, kept in its own section, finished with 0 of 7 lines net-positive as field accuracy read 45.0% / 46.3% / 45.5% by month (45.6% over the quarter).",
  "stats": [
   "59,606 directional calls",
   "gap +17.0pp slope -0.40",
   "0 of 7 net-positive"
  ],
  "manifest_key_finding": "Over the quarter the overconfidence gap read +17.0pp on 59,606 scored calls with field Brier 0.2803; across the three months the monthly gaps ran +17.8pp -> +16.3pp -> +17.0pp, an OLS slope of -0.40 pp per month (flat), and trading, kept separate, finished 0 of 7 lines net-positive.",
  "files": {
   "pdf": "/research/reports/calibration-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf",
   "md": "/research/reports/calibration-quarterly-2026-q3.md",
   "json": "/research/reports/calibration-quarterly-2026-q3.json"
  }
 },
 "social": {
  "telegram": {
   "photo_caption_html": "🎯 <b>Quarterly Calibration #1</b> — quarterly series, window Jul 15–Sep 30 (Q3 2026, partial)\n\nResearch question: when a model says 70, does it hit 70% of the time?\n\n59,606 directional calls, 7 model lines, one calendar quarter:\n• Field hit <b>45.6%</b> vs <b>62.6</b> stated — gap <b>+17.0pp</b>, Brier 0.2803\n• Drift across the three months: gap +17.8pp -> +16.3pp -> +17.0pp, slope <b>-0.40 pp/mo</b> (flat)\n• Per-model: 3 narrowing / 2 widening / 2 flat\n• Lowest-Brier line: <b>grok-4.6 (spliced)</b> (Brier 0.2716); hit-rate leader gemini-3.1-pro at 47.2%\n• Market check: field 45.0% / 46.3% / 45.5% by month (45.6% for the quarter); trading separate — <b>0 of 7 net-positive</b>\n\nNote: first quarterly issue, no prior quarter; monthly gaps from the frozen monthly packs\n\n📄 <a href=\"https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/calibration-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf\">Full report (PDF)</a> · <a href=\"https://marketmania.ai/research\">all research</a>\n\n#cryptotrading #LLM #AI #crypto #trading #calibration #research #Quarterly",
   "document_caption_html": "📄 Quarterly Calibration #1 — full report (PDF).\nWeb copy: <a href=\"https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/calibration-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf\">calibration-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf</a> · machine-readable: <a href=\"https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/calibration-quarterly-2026-q3.json\">JSON</a> · <a href=\"https://marketmania.ai/research\">all research</a>\n\n#cryptotrading #LLM #AI #crypto #trading #calibration #research #Quarterly",
   "caption_len": 1021,
   "document_caption_len": 430,
   "limit": 1024
  },
  "x": {
   "main": "Quarterly Calibration #1 is out.\n\n59,606 LLM calls over Q3 (data from Jul 15): 45.6% hit vs 62.6 stated confidence — a gap of +17.0pp, drifting -0.40 pp/month across the three months.\n\nFull report: https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/calibration-quarterly-2026-q3.pdf\n\n#AI #Crypto #Research #Calibration",
   "main_tco_len": 257,
   "reply": "Gap M1 -> quarter (pp):\nfable-5: 15.9 -> 15.1\nopus-5: 15.6 -> 15.0\ndeepseek: 16.6 -> 15.6\ngemini-3.1: 20.0 -> 18.9\ngpt-5.6: 22.1 -> 22.5\ngrok-4.6: 14.2 -> 15.0\nqwen-3.8: 18.7 -> 16.1\nField +17.0pp, slope -0.40 pp/mo. v1.1.\nData: https://marketmania.ai/research/reports/calibration-quarterly-2026-q3.json",
   "reply_tco_len": 252,
   "limit_tco": 280,
   "replies_max": 1
  }
 },
 "monthly_window": {
  "start": "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00",
  "end": "2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00",
  "text": "Jul 15-Sep 30, 2026 UTC",
  "cutoff": "2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00",
  "cutoff_text": "Thu Oct 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC",
  "days": 92,
  "label": "Jul 15-Sep 30",
  "badge": "Q3 2026 (partial: platform data from Jul 15)",
  "cell": "Q3 2026 · Jul 15-Sep 30 · partial",
  "partial": true,
  "effective_start": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
  "days_with_data": 78,
  "nominal_text": "Jul 1-Sep 30, 2026",
  "partial_note": "Q3 2026 is partial: the first forecasts of the platform are from 2026-07-11 and its first candles from 2026-07-15; the window is the calendar quarter 2026-07-01 .. 2026-10-01 and effective_start is computed from the rows"
 },
 "prior_window": {
  "start": "2026-04-01T00:00:00+00:00",
  "end": "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00",
  "text": "n/a (no prior quarter)",
  "printed_as": "the prior quarter",
  "cutoff_text": "Wed Jul 1, 2026, 16:00 UTC",
  "partial": false,
  "note": "no prior quarter: there is nothing before the platform start (forecasts since 2026-07-11; candles since 2026-07-15)",
  "applicable": false,
  "not_applicable_reason": "no prior quarter: there is nothing before the platform start (forecasts since 2026-07-11; candles since 2026-07-15)",
  "source": null,
  "effective_start": null,
  "counters": null,
  "definitions": null
 },
 "weeks_index": {
  "M1": {
   "label": "Jul 15-31",
   "issue": "Monthly #1 (prior window)",
   "published_slug_suffix": [
    "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z",
    "2026-08-01T00:00:00Z"
   ],
   "bounds": [
    "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z",
    "2026-08-01T00:00:00Z"
   ],
   "regime": "calm",
   "effective_start": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
  },
  "M2": {
   "label": "Aug 1-31",
   "issue": "Monthly #1",
   "published_slug_suffix": [
    "2026-08-01T00:00:00Z",
    "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z"
   ],
   "bounds": [
    "2026-08-01T00:00:00Z",
    "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z"
   ],
   "regime": "volatile",
   "effective_start": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
  },
  "M3": {
   "label": "Sep 1-30",
   "issue": "Monthly #2",
   "published_slug_suffix": [
    "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z",
    "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z"
   ],
   "bounds": [
    "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z",
    "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z"
   ],
   "regime": "volatile",
   "effective_start": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
  }
 },
 "roster_rule": "7 models tracked (current line-up; earlier versions folded into their successors' lineage)",
 "lineage_labels": {
  "labels": {
   "claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
   "claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
   "deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
   "gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
   "gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
   "grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
   "qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
  },
  "spliced_in_window": [
   "claude-opus-5",
   "grok-4.6",
   "qwen-3.8-max"
  ],
  "cell_form": {
   "claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (spliced)",
   "grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (spliced)",
   "qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (spliced)"
  },
  "families": [
   "opus",
   "grok",
   "qwen"
  ]
 },
 "controls": {
  "last_month_reproduces_monthly2": {
   "pins_source": "the published Monthly #2 JSONs calibration-monthly-2026-09.json, consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json, model-watch-monthly-2026-09.json",
   "note": "M3 of this run is the Monthly #2 window with the Monthly #2 frozen cutoff, so every pin must reproduce exactly. A mismatch means the window or the cutoff moved -- non-fatal here, but the quarterly numbers must not be published until it is explained.",
   "checks": {
    "counters.mature_directional": {
     "pin": 20682,
     "got": 20682,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0
    },
    "calibration.field.hit_rate": {
     "pin": 0.455,
     "got": 0.455,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 5e-05
    },
    "calibration.field.gap_pp": {
     "pin": 17.0,
     "got": 17.0,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0.05
    },
    "consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp": {
     "pin": -9.7,
     "got": -9.7,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0.05
    },
    "model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].model": {
     "pin": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "got": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0
    },
    "model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].hit_rate": {
     "pin": 0.4851,
     "got": 0.4851,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 5e-05
    },
    "research_to_date.canonical_value_at_cutoff": {
     "pin": 59755,
     "got": 59755,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0
    }
   },
   "all_match": true,
   "n_checks": 7,
   "n_match": 7,
   "last_month_key": "M3",
   "window_key": "M3"
  },
  "quarter_vs_months": {
   "quarter": 59606,
   "sum_months": 59606,
   "per_month": {
    "M1": 19541,
    "M2": 19383,
    "M3": 20682
   },
   "remainder_days": [],
   "remainder_days_n": 0,
   "remainder_mature_directional_quarter_pull": 0,
   "remainder_by_day": {},
   "sum_months_plus_remainder": 59606,
   "quarter_minus_sum_months_plus_remainder": 0,
   "quarter_pull_by_month": {
    "M1": 19541,
    "M2": 19383,
    "M3": 20682
   },
   "note": "These WILL differ, and the difference is expected: each monthly pack is computed at its own frozen cutoff (month_end + 16h), while the QUARTER pack is computed at 2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00. A forecast still pending at its month's cutoff (trade not yet closed) is immature in the monthly pack and mature in the QUARTER pack, so quarter >= sum_months + remainder (M3 has the QUARTER cutoff). remainder_days_n counts the calendar days of the quarter outside the three calendar months (none). quarter_pull_by_month is the same quarter pull split by slot month at the QUARTER cutoff -- compare THAT with per_month to see the cutoff effect alone. days_without_rows_from_window_start = whole days from the window start to the first slot of the QUARTER pull.",
   "days_without_rows_from_window_start": 14
  },
  "lineage_splice_counts": {
   "M1": {
    "claude-opus-4.8": 6315,
    "grok-4.5": 6608,
    "qwen-3.7-max": 6609
   },
   "M2": {
    "claude-opus-4.8": 0,
    "grok-4.5": 4520,
    "qwen-3.7-max": 870
   },
   "M3": {
    "claude-opus-4.8": 0,
    "grok-4.5": 0,
    "qwen-3.7-max": 0
   },
   "QUARTER": {
    "claude-opus-4.8": 6315,
    "grok-4.5": 11128,
    "qwen-3.7-max": 7479
   }
  },
  "lineage_splice_detail": {
   "QUARTER": {
    "total_window": 24922,
    "total_prev_window": 0,
    "labels": {
     "claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
     "deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-Aug 24)",
     "qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-Aug 5)"
    },
    "per_head": {
     "claude-fable-5": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "claude-opus-5": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "claude-opus-4.8"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "claude-opus-4.8": 6315
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "deepseek-v4-pro": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "gemini-3.1-pro": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "gpt-5.6-sol": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "grok-4.6": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "grok-4.5"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "grok-4.5": 11128
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "qwen-3.8-max": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "qwen-3.7-max"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "qwen-3.7-max": 7479
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-05T10:01:00+00:00"
     }
    }
   },
   "M1": {
    "total_window": 19532,
    "total_prev_window": 0,
    "labels": {
     "claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5 (incl. 4.8-era, Jul 15-30)",
     "deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Jul 15-31)",
     "qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Jul 15-31)"
    },
    "per_head": {
     "claude-fable-5": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "claude-opus-5": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "claude-opus-4.8"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "claude-opus-4.8": 6315
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-30T08:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "deepseek-v4-pro": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "gemini-3.1-pro": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "gpt-5.6-sol": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "grok-4.6": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "grok-4.5"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "grok-4.5": 6608
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-31T23:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": null
     },
     "qwen-3.8-max": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "qwen-3.7-max"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "qwen-3.7-max": 6609
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-07-15T18:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-07-31T23:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": null
     }
    }
   },
   "M2": {
    "total_window": 5390,
    "total_prev_window": 19532,
    "labels": {
     "claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5",
     "deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6": "grok-4.6 (incl. 4.5-era, Aug 1-24)",
     "qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max (incl. 3.7-era, Aug 1-5)"
    },
    "per_head": {
     "claude-fable-5": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "claude-opus-5": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "claude-opus-4.8": 0
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "deepseek-v4-pro": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "gemini-3.1-pro": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "gpt-5.6-sol": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "grok-4.6": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "grok-4.5"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "grok-4.5": 4520
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-24T09:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-24T10:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "qwen-3.8-max": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [
       "qwen-3.7-max"
      ],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "qwen-3.7-max": 870
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": "2026-08-01T00:01:00+00:00",
      "last_legacy_slot": "2026-08-05T09:01:00+00:00",
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-08-05T10:01:00+00:00"
     }
    }
   },
   "M3": {
    "total_window": 0,
    "total_prev_window": 5390,
    "labels": {
     "claude-fable-5": "claude-fable-5",
     "claude-opus-5": "claude-opus-5",
     "deepseek-v4-pro": "deepseek-v4-pro",
     "gemini-3.1-pro": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "gpt-5.6-sol": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "grok-4.6": "grok-4.6",
     "qwen-3.8-max": "qwen-3.8-max"
    },
    "per_head": {
     "claude-fable-5": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "claude-opus-5": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "claude-opus-4.8": 0
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "deepseek-v4-pro": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "gemini-3.1-pro": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "gpt-5.6-sol": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {},
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "grok-4.6": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "grok-4.5": 0
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     },
     "qwen-3.8-max": {
      "legacy_ids_seen_in_window": [],
      "n_rows_remapped": {
       "qwen-3.7-max": 0
      },
      "first_legacy_slot": null,
      "last_legacy_slot": null,
      "first_successor_slot": "2026-09-01T00:01:00+00:00"
     }
    }
   }
  },
  "d2_at_cutoff": {
   "window_key": "QUARTER",
   "cutoff": "2026-10-01T16:00:00+00:00",
   "canonical_definition": "D2_directional_only",
   "canonical_value_at_cutoff": 59755,
   "since": "2026-07-11T00:00:00+00:00",
   "d1_d3_at_cutoff": {
    "D1_expired_ok_in_gate": 122919,
    "D2_directional_only": 59755,
    "D3_weekly_rule_mature": 122770
   },
   "marker": "RTD-D2-QUARTERLY=59755",
   "note": "this is the quarterly RTD pin -- the number that goes into the Quarterly plain boxes",
   "monthly2_published": 59755,
   "m3_canonical_value_at_cutoff": 59755,
   "equals_monthly2": true
  },
  "prior_window_summary": {
   "applicable": false,
   "note": "prior window: not applicable (no prior quarter: there is nothing before the platform start (forecasts since 2026-07-11; candles since 2026-07-15))",
   "window_key": "QUARTER",
   "start": "2026-04-01T00:00:00+00:00",
   "end": "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00",
   "cutoff": "2026-07-01T16:00:00+00:00",
   "rows_in_prior_window": 0,
   "reason": "no prior quarter: there is nothing before the platform start (forecasts since 2026-07-11; candles since 2026-07-15)"
  },
  "m2_reproduces_monthly1": {
   "pins_source": "the published Monthly #1 JSONs calibration-monthly-2026-08.json, consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json, model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json (window 2026-08-01 .. 2026-09-01, cutoff 2026-09-01T16:00Z)",
   "note": "the M2 pack of this run has the window, the cutoff and the definitions of the month Monthly #1 published; each check is printed and stored as a fact. A mismatch is not fatal and nothing is adjusted to match.",
   "applicable": true,
   "d2_cutoff_used": "2026-09-01T16:00:00+00:00",
   "d2_slot_bound": "2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00",
   "checks": {
    "counters.mature_directional": {
     "pin": 19383,
     "got": 19383,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.counters.mature_directional"
    },
    "calibration.field.hit_rate": {
     "pin": 0.4633,
     "got": 0.4633,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 5e-05,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.calibration_main[7].hit_rate"
    },
    "calibration.field.gap_pp": {
     "pin": 16.3,
     "got": 16.3,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0.05,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.calibration_main[7].gap_pp"
    },
    "consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp": {
     "pin": 1.9,
     "got": 1.9,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0.05,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.pooled.lift_pp"
    },
    "model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].model": {
     "pin": "claude-opus-5",
     "got": "claude-opus-5",
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.leaderboard.rows[0].model"
    },
    "model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].hit_rate": {
     "pin": 0.4779,
     "got": 0.4779,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 5e-05,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.leaderboard.rows[0].hit_rate"
    },
    "research_to_date.canonical_value_at_cutoff": {
     "pin": 39073,
     "got": 39073,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.research_to_date.platform.resolved_forecasts"
    }
   },
   "all_match": true,
   "n_checks": 7,
   "n_match": 7,
   "window_key": "M2"
  },
  "m1_reproduces_monthly1_prior": {
   "pins_source": "the Monthly #1 pack monthly_metrics_2026-08.json: month.prior_window (July, window 2026-07-01 .. 2026-08-01, cutoff 2026-08-01T16:00Z) and month.research_to_date.at_prev_cutoff (D2 at 2026-08-01T16:00Z, slots < 2026-08-01); the first six are also the prior columns of the published Monthly #1 JSONs",
   "note": "the M1 pack of this run has the window and the cutoff of the July prior window of Monthly #1 (computed there as window A at the same cutoff); each check is printed and stored as a fact. A mismatch is not fatal and nothing is adjusted to match.",
   "applicable": true,
   "d2_cutoff_used": "2026-08-01T16:00:00+00:00",
   "d2_slot_bound": "2026-08-01T00:00:00+00:00",
   "checks": {
    "counters.mature_directional": {
     "pin": 19541,
     "got": 19541,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0,
     "published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.counters.mature_directional (published: calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.prior_window.counters.mature_directional)"
    },
    "calibration.field.hit_rate": {
     "pin": 0.4498,
     "got": 0.4498,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 5e-05,
     "published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.calibration.field.hit_rate (published: calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.prior_window_calibration.field.hit_rate)"
    },
    "calibration.field.gap_pp": {
     "pin": 17.8,
     "got": 17.8,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0.05,
     "published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.calibration.field.gap_pp (published: calibration-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.prior_window_calibration.field.gap_pp)"
    },
    "consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp": {
     "pin": -10.6,
     "got": -10.6,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0.05,
     "published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp (published: consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.prior_window_consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp)"
    },
    "model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].model": {
     "pin": "qwen-3.8-max",
     "got": "qwen-3.8-max",
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0,
     "published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.model_watch.leaderboard[0].model (published: model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.prior_window_model_watch.leaderboard[0].model)"
    },
    "model_watch.leaderboard.rows[0].hit_rate": {
     "pin": 0.4568,
     "got": 0.4568,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 5e-05,
     "published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.prior_window.model_watch.leaderboard[0].hit_rate (published: model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json $.tables.prior_window_model_watch.leaderboard[0].hit_rate)"
    },
    "research_to_date.canonical_value_at_cutoff": {
     "pin": 19690,
     "got": 19690,
     "match": true,
     "tolerance": 0,
     "published_path": "monthly_metrics_2026-08.json $.month.research_to_date.at_prev_cutoff.D2_directional_only (not in the published JSONs)"
    }
   },
   "all_match": true,
   "n_checks": 7,
   "n_match": 7,
   "window_key": "M1"
  },
  "note": "controls are DESCRIPTIVE and never fatal; they are printed in the log as well",
  "builder_prior_vs_published_monthly1": {
   "applicable": false,
   "reason": "not applicable: no prior quarter; the month cells are checked in builder_months_vs_published_monthly"
  },
  "builder_months_vs_published_monthly": {
   "source": "months.M1..M3 of this pack (the frozen monthly packs) vs the published Monthly #1 / #2 JSONs (calibration-monthly-2026-08.json, calibration-monthly-2026-09.json, consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json, consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json, model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json, model-watch-monthly-2026-09.json)",
   "rule": "M3 <-> Monthly #2 (its month); M2 <-> Monthly #1 (its month); M1 <-> the prior columns of Monthly #1",
   "checks": [
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "lift_pp",
     "pack": -10.6,
     "published": -10.6,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_consensus.loo_pooled.lift_pp"
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "herd_share_pct",
     "pack": 97.4,
     "published": 97.4,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_consensus.loo_pooled agree_n / (agree_n + disagree_n)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "unanimity_6_hit",
     "pack": 0.4591,
     "published": null,
     "match": null,
     "published_path": "not published under the strict six-peer rule: consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_consensus.by_margin[unanimity] holds the wide rule (n=11531, hit 0.4562)",
     "note": "the verdict cell (unanimity hit minus field hit) reads +0.9 on the pack's strict rule and +0.6 on the published wide rule: same sign",
     "same_sign": true
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "field_hit",
     "pack": 0.4498,
     "published": 0.4498,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_calibration.field.hit_rate"
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "field_gap_pp",
     "pack": 17.8,
     "published": 17.8,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_calibration.field.gap_pp"
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "lowest_brier_model",
     "pack": "grok-4.6",
     "published": "grok-4.6",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_calibration.per_model (min brier)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "widest_gap_model",
     "pack": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "published": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_calibration.per_model (max gap_pp)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "leader_model",
     "pack": "qwen-3.8-max",
     "published": "qwen-3.8-max",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_model_watch.leaderboard (max hit_rate)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "most_readable_coin",
     "pack": "ETH",
     "published": "ETH",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_model_watch.by_symbol (max hit_rate, current coins)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "label": "Jul 15-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1, prior columns (Jul 15-31)",
     "check": "mature_directional",
     "pack": 19541,
     "published": 19541,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json prior_window.counters.mature_directional"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "lift_pp",
     "pack": 1.9,
     "published": 1.9,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.pooled.lift_pp"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "herd_share_pct",
     "pack": 98.7,
     "published": 98.7,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.pooled agree.n / (agree.n + disagree.n)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "unanimity_6_hit",
     "pack": 0.4511,
     "published": 0.4511,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.by_margin[margin=6].hit_rate"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "field_hit",
     "pack": 0.4633,
     "published": 0.4633,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.calibration_main[Field].hit_rate"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "field_gap_pp",
     "pack": 16.3,
     "published": 16.3,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.calibration_main[Field].gap_pp"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "lowest_brier_model",
     "pack": "claude-opus-5",
     "published": "claude-opus-5",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.calibration_main (min brier)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "widest_gap_model",
     "pack": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "published": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.calibration_main (max gap_pp)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "leader_model",
     "pack": "claude-opus-5",
     "published": "claude-opus-5",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.leaderboard.rows (max hit_rate)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "most_readable_coin",
     "pack": "BNB",
     "published": "BNB",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.ticker.rows (max hit_rate, current coins)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M2",
     "label": "Aug 1-31",
     "published_in": "Monthly #1 (Aug 1-31)",
     "check": "mature_directional",
     "pack": 19383,
     "published": 19383,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-08.json tables.counters.mature_directional"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "lift_pp",
     "pack": -9.7,
     "published": -9.7,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json tables.pooled.lift_pp"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "herd_share_pct",
     "pack": 99.2,
     "published": 99.2,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json tables.pooled agree.n / (agree.n + disagree.n)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "unanimity_6_hit",
     "pack": 0.4428,
     "published": 0.4428,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "consensus-watch-monthly-2026-09.json tables.by_margin[margin=6].hit_rate"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "field_hit",
     "pack": 0.455,
     "published": 0.455,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-09.json tables.calibration_main[Field].hit_rate"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "field_gap_pp",
     "pack": 17.0,
     "published": 17.0,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-09.json tables.calibration_main[Field].gap_pp"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "lowest_brier_model",
     "pack": "qwen-3.8-max",
     "published": "qwen-3.8-max",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-09.json tables.calibration_main (min brier)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "widest_gap_model",
     "pack": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "published": "gpt-5.6-sol",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-09.json tables.calibration_main (max gap_pp)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "leader_model",
     "pack": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "published": "gemini-3.1-pro",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-09.json tables.leaderboard.rows (max hit_rate)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "most_readable_coin",
     "pack": "XRP",
     "published": "XRP",
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "model-watch-monthly-2026-09.json tables.ticker.rows (max hit_rate, current coins)"
    },
    {
     "month": "M3",
     "label": "Sep 1-30",
     "published_in": "Monthly #2 (Sep 1-30)",
     "check": "mature_directional",
     "pack": 20682,
     "published": 20682,
     "match": true,
     "published_path": "calibration-monthly-2026-09.json tables.counters.mature_directional"
    }
   ],
   "n_checks": 29,
   "n_match": 29,
   "all_match": true,
   "not_comparable": [
    {
     "month": "M1",
     "check": "unanimity_6_hit",
     "why": "not published under the strict six-peer rule: consensus-watch-monthly-2026-08.json tables.prior_window_consensus.by_margin[unanimity] holds the wide rule (n=11531, hit 0.4562)"
    }
   ],
   "note": "printed in the build log as facts; never a source of a printed number"
  }
 }
}